Sunday – High 24: Sunday Night – Low 21
A major Winter Storm is headed toward south central Kentucky, with Bowling Green currently in the bulls-eye for model guidance snowfall accumulation. While the models have been all over the place the past several days, they have all trended toward generally the same solution.
The NWS Lousiville has issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of their coverage area. Here is the snowfall predictions from them.
NWS Snowfall Forecast
I don’t see any reason to waiver from their forecast as it looks like this will most definitely be a potent storm system with heavy banded precipitation. Extremely heavy snow will fall at times and travel will be virtually impossible during the day Monday.
Timing: Snow will begin between 9 pm Sunday and 3 am Monday. It will last throughout much of the day Monday. The heaviest snow will fall from just before sunup til early afternoon.
Here is a look at the simulated reflectivity from the NAM model for 6pm tonight, 6am Monday and 12pm Monday. This particular model continues to bring the moisture in earlier then the rest ( by 6 tonighht ). The initial dry air may limit much from reaching the ground. But a heavier burst from the initial wave can certainly put a white layer down.
So why is Bowling Green in the bulls-eye for a major winter storm after not seeing a heavy snow in a long time??
Bowling Green is climatologically in a poor location for the track of the low pressure to combine with adequate cold air to allow for all snow systems. The difference with this system is the strong Arctic high that has helped cold air push much farther south than usual with this particular track of a low pressure. Another big player is the more zonal track of the system as opposed to the common SW to NE moving winter storms. Those will generally be all rain for Bowling Green and snow for places like Southern Indiana and North.
The rest of the week:
We have potential for light snow once again on Wednesday. Nothing major, but another light accumulation can add up with little snow melt because of the cold.
Another system looks poised to move into the region next weekend. This system bares watching as it also has ample cold air and moisture at hand.
5 Day Forecast
TodayIncreasing clouds and cold, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
Tonight: Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as 8. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.
Washington’s Birthday: Snow, mainly before 5pm. High near 26. Wind chill values as low as 9. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 8 inches.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. North wind 3 to 5 mph.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 18.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 18.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.