Cooler, Dryer Weather For Ohio Valley | Tropics Heat Up

Not surprisingly, changes in the weather are taking place this week across the country and Kentucky is in full participation. With the onset of September finally here, climatic changes usually start to show in our day-to-day weather and this is certainly the case. A persistent ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern portion of the United States is finally taking a few days off which will allow for cooler, dryer air to infiltrate the region from the north. This is just in time for WKU football as we host Rice on Thursday September 1st at 7:00 PM at Houchens-Smith Stadium.

Guidance suggests the changeover to a more comfortable air mass on Thursday as a positively tilted trough approaches from the Great Lakes region throughout the day. Below is the NAM depicting the trough and other important weather features (see Gulf of Mexico):

500 hPa map valid for Thursday at 7:00 PM.

500 hPa map valid for Thursday at 7:00 PM.

It appears the full effects of the cold front won’t be felt until later into the afternoon hours when noticeably dryer air moves into western KY. The passage of the front is not expected to bring rainfall however, WPC forecasts also support this notion:

WPC QPF forecast

WPC QPF forecast valid thru 00 UTC Friday 2 September

However, as we start to feel some relief from the hot and humid conditions that have been the apparent theme for summer weather in the Ohio Valley, tropical weather activity across the Atlantic basin is starting to increase:

two_atl_2d0

  • As seen above, the NHC is currently tracking and issuing Atlantic advisories for:
  1. Tropical Depression 8
  2. Tropical Storm Hermine
  3. Hurricane Gaston

Currently, Tropical Storm Hermine is situated in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to continue a period of strengthening before making landfall somewhere in the Florida panhandle. Primary threats from the system, and most tropical storms alike, are heavy rain producing thunderstorms and storm surge.

This tropical system will need to be watched in the coming days as it moves northeastward along the Atlantic coast and interacts with the same trough affecting our weather here in KY. Below is the latest NHC forecast track:

NHC forecast cone for Tropical Storm Hermine

NHC forecast cone for Tropical Storm Hermine

Any significant interaction with the upper-level trough along the east coast would mean a heavy rainfall threat from Georgia to Massachusetts. The Weather Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center will continue to track the developing system in the coming days.

In the mean time, more comfortable weather conditions for us here in Bowling Green and the surrounding areas will extend throughout the weekend with no noteworthy chances of precipitation to boot. Warmer weather and the return of higher dewpoints look to begin returning by the start of the next work week, but overall, the next several days look sunny and dry.

In other news, changes and new implementations are taking place within the WKU meteorology program and the Department of Geography and Geology. I’ll discuss these topics on Friday!

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1 Response to Cooler, Dryer Weather For Ohio Valley | Tropics Heat Up

  1. Scott Hack says:

    Do you by chance have any predictions on the fall leaves color and duration based on the summer heat we have had? Or do you think it is too early to start looking at that data?

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