Drought conditions over the past several days haven’t had any improvement despite occasional light rain episodes, but it appears a more active jet stream will help to put a dent in the rainfall deficits across the state, starting tomorrow. A trough is working its way from the west and is setting up a an area of low pressure which will send rain across the Ohio Valley.
Currently, the drought situation for the state of KY can be seen in the graphic below:
Current KY Drought Conditions
Upper level dynamics are helping to provide beneficial rainfall to our area though. Currently a trough of low pressure and surface low are propagating across the central US and entering the Ohio Valley:
The below graphic displays the latest NAM run and it’s thinking on surface conditions and precipitation tomorrow morning, as compared to the same time as the image above ^
Generally it is expected that most locations receive about a .25″ of rainfall with this approaching system. Not a drought buster, but perhaps and aid to wild fire situations to our east.
As mentioned before, the jet stream is becoming more active after a prolinged period of anomalous heat and dryness, as well as above average heights. As seen below, another upper-level system can be seen entering the Ohio Valley by 00 Z Friday:
This particular piece of energy isn’t expected to bring any additional rainfall to the area, but is a sign that supports the more active pattern we need in order to improve the drought conditions longer-term. Currently, the GFS is suggesting additional precipitation from more low pressure systems into next week.
Hopefully this week I will provide some additional details on approaching systems and hopeful outlooks on improving drought conditions across the area. until then, have a great Thanksgiving!
