Risk for Rain and Severe Wx

Tuesday takes on another gloomy day, although less rainfall than yesterday. Monday contributed to a little over an inch of rain in Bowling Green, Ky. (1.11″ according to NWS Louisville Climate Report) causing some risks for flooding. Thankfully, today hasn’t had any rain in the bucket so far for Warren County but not so much the case for further western portions of the state (Paducah). Temperatures in BG began in the low 70’s across the region but have gradually overcome the 80 degree mark this afternoon. After a slight clearing, weather conditions are once again relatively humid this afternoon. With rapid winds coming out of the Gulf, these winds moving up to 20 mph are inclusive to creating a more humid atmosphere. After a rain-less morning, this additional moisture will slowly increase cloud coverage into this evening. As a result, rain will be likely this evening, a 50% chance with a 10% chance of a thunderstorm.

Flash Flooding will be of a concern heading into the evening as those dew point temperatures will keep the hopes alive for receiving rain. These storms could be severe in some areas particularly in the western portion of Ky. If the atmosphere can contain enough instability before Wednesday’s cold front, then there could be some severe weather to reckon with.

Wednesday, is set to unveil a new trend of the model guidance data that has been prevalent to mention. A predominant cold front that is set to hit the Mid South region later on this week. This frontal boundary will bring cooler “fall-like” temperatures with low temperatures in the mid 50’s! Drier air and higher altitude of heights for the middle-to-end of your week creates a seasonal atmosphere. Just in time for October! But with that boundary beholds some observation of severe weather stretching along the Ohio Valley. This severe weather outlook keeps Bowling Green in tact, so much as to say that there will be a chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.

Here’s my forecast…

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a southerly wind making the day rather gloomy, and windy. An increase in clouds due to rapid speed of winds makes the atmosphere at a slight risk for rain and severe weather later in the day. High temp in the low 80’s and a low temp in the upper 60’s.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with a medium risk for rain showers (50%) that will attribute to less than a quarter of an inch if any. A small risk for thunderstorms as well with moisture becoming heavier in the atmosphere and a distinctive change in wind direction.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with temperatures reaching a morning low temperature of 72 degrees. With the contribution of the cold front, low temps looking to get into the low to mid-50’s. Ah!

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