Fall Is That You?! Or Halloween Rain Chances?

Good afternoon WKU!

Today’s weather is one that will make your plans enjoyable if you’re going outdoors. Although, if your looking for Halloween’s weather to be like this one, then I can’t make any promises. However, I can say that heavier rain will hold off until Thursday morning. Halloween evening will most likely conclude with light rain showers.

Tuesday morning started off slightly cool with a morning low of 38°F. However, a nice warm gradient throughout the day makes our weather pleasant. Currently temperatures are 69°F in Bowling Green, Ky and mostly sunny skies. Thanks to our fair weather maker, a high pressure associated with an upper level ridge creates clear skies and mild temperatures for Tuesday. Model Output Statistics (MOS), a tactic for interpreting numerical model data output shows a slight variation in temperatures. GFS mod. guidance is more accurate than the NAM, focusing on the highs being predicted to reach up to 75°F. Due to some windy conditions though, highs will reach to about 72°F.

Temperatures for TUES will be above average because of a slight heat index from an oncoming warm front from the MS Valley. Winds up to 20 mph from the south keeps conditions a little drafty but pleasant compared to a northern breeze. A build-up of moisture and as a result, instability will cause warmer dew points and more fall-like weather. Is this beautiful weather bound to continue??? How will Halloween be???

1500Z Surface Analysis (11:30am) showing the weather features for a small-scale observation of 12 hours. Observe how due to the warm front in the SW temps were already in the upper 60’s and low 70’s in parts of the South. As the new trough swoops through the Great Plains associated with a low pressure system we will start seeing clouds and rain chances for Wednesday.

Halloween, is set to be mild like Buffalo wings as well, effectively from that warm front to our SW. Even with scattered clouds increasing to overcasting skies by the late afternoon, temperatures will be sure to surpass 70°F for the maximum temperature. Depending on the amount of cloud cover during the day, WKU could reach middle-values due to humidity. Dew points are to be in the low tier of 60°F making the weather a bit more muggy. Wind shear from our south will push northeast-ward into the Mid-South, associated with that moisture factor, but will oppressively battle with a cold sector in the Midwest.

Additionally, this format brings in the scenario of conveyor belts towards which the warm air lifting parallel ahead of the cold front that is moving at a more rapid pace. In fact, a warm conveyor belt will bring in light rain for Halloween evening. Don’t be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder due to the amount of instability and the approaching of the cold-sector. As the moisture from the south counteracts the cold front, heavier rain chances will be possible for Thursday morning into the afternoon. OH BOY!


72°F/38°F; Mostly sunny but clouds will be few in number as the day concludes. Winds pick up to about 20 mph throughout the day (SSW). Beautiful weather maker today so go enjoy it!!!


74°F/60°F; Scattered clouds progressively into overcast skies by late PM. Lght rain chances 30% during the day but increase to 60% in the evening, accumulation estimated to be trace (0.01″). A thunderstorm possible (30%) around 1-4pm.


65°F/56°F; Cloudy skies and chances for heavy rain in the morning and afternoon hours (>70% chance). Rain values will vary but will be abundant for after 10am (1.0″<rain<2.0″). BE SURE TO GRAB AN UMBRELLA!


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