Upcoming Winter Weather event

Good afternoon,

There has been a lot of talk regarding a Winter Storm that is going to impact the Ohio Valley regions Starting Thursday going into Friday. I am going to break down this event and give a forecast based off of what we know about the upcoming storm so far, and the impacts it could have on Bowling Green. The first thing to consider about this storm is the timing, timing is key and there are a lot of variables that could have an impact on how much snow or ice this storm produces. Currently we believe that there is going to be rain that transitions into snow sometime late Thursday evening into Friday. This storm will probably drop an estimated 0.1 to 0.20 inches of ice in Bowling Green between the hours of 9:00pm Thursday and 3:00am Friday according to the National Weather Service. Their confidence in this forecast is unlikely to occur to the exact dot of their forecast. As of right now it looks like this event will happen but there is still over 30 hours until this transition from rain to freezing rain is set to occur. A lot of things can happen for the better or worse before that point which can drastically change the forecast. In conclusion not everything is set in stone for sure, there is still a lot of time where things can chance drastically which may increase or decrease the chances for freezing rain. Everything right now is just a prediction on what we think may end up happening from 30 hours out. My advise is to prepare accordingly for icy conditions and expect some hazardous weather but do not take the numbers to heart as the chance of the exact amount of ice and snow could change for the better or worse. I have attached my personal forecast below

On Thursday rain will begin to transition to freezing rain around 8:00pm. before transitioning to light snow in the early morning around 3:00am Friday. Overall I would expect ice totals to be from 0.1-0.15 of an inch this will create some slippery roads in the morning hours of Friday. It would be best to stay off the roads if possible in the early morning hours on Friday. My overall confidence in ice accumulation is Medium, my Overall confidence in timing is Low. Stay safe out there and have a great day!

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