Good afternoon WKU!
Happy Homecoming Week! The first thing on your mind concerning the weather is I’m sure about concerns with how cold it will be. Monday started out quite bitter with a Freeze Advisory due to a minimum temperature of 33°F… one degree shy of freezing! However, good news for Tuesday is that temperatures are going to be milder with highs in the upper 60°F this afternoon. Due to a low leveled trough in the northeast region, results in accommodating a backside ridge structure for areas in the Mid-South. This area of pressure rises will really be efficient at unlocking an abundance of sunshine for the Mid-South region throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. The downstream effects from the north packs on some light winds associated with a cold front. As a result, cooler conditions, this boundary will ensure a fall-like breeze for the rest of your Tuesday. As that trough veers its way down into the Midwest and across the Great Lakes, upper-air heights will be gradually lower. Convergence picks up from the jet stream altering low temperatures and will develop into the northeast later in the week possibly as a heavy-hitting nor’easter. For the Mid-South, minimum temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be frigid in the upper 30’s/low 40’s. Considering that cold front moves through, temperatures for Wednesday will be slightly cooler than the start of this week. Highs looking to be upper 50’s/low 60’s for the next few days.
Conversely, this systematic high pressure is sure to deteriorate in a couple days and the next topic of discussion is the moisture factor headed our way out of the southwest. The Atlantic Ocean has been well in the news with multiple hurricanes forming but the Pacific has been doing some work as well. Hurricane Willa has been forming along the Mexico border with some prevailing winds and width that has since weakened. Clouds will be on the increase for Thursday and Friday as that incoming moisture from the southwest increases dew point factors. This relationship will seem to alter your plans for the Homecoming Parade Friday evening.
Here is a recent report from NOAA NWS (12:40 CDT):
“Although Willa has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane, it is still forecast to make landfall in Mexico today. Remnants of Willa will bring significant rainfall across a swath of the southern United States from southeast Texas through southern Georgia. Portions of the Florida Panhandle affected by Hurricane Michael are of particular concern as they’re expected to pick up a few inches of rain through Friday.”
Hurricane track and elements of Hurricane Willa and it’s behavior courtesy of WPC
While Willa will create heavy rain and flooding in the Southwest U.S., surges of this storm could reach the Mid-South region by Friday evening. Below is a Weather Storm Prediction model courtesy of NOAA NWS displaying the quantitative precipitation forecast for day 2 and day 3. On the left is valid for Wednesday, displaying that the conditions are going to be dry for tomorrow in the Mid-South. However, not so much for the transition into Thursday as that moisture shift takes place Thursday evening into Friday morning from Willa.
Tuesday: 68/37 Mostly Clear skies due to high pressure and light winds from the NNW. Fall-like breezes with speeds up to 10 mph and dew points in the low 30’s makes temperatures frigid.
Wednesday: 61/38 Cold front affects the condition of temperatures but mostly sunny skies warms us up. Slight winds about 5 mph from the north. Dew points in the 30’s making the nights cooler from a lack of absorption.
Thursday: 59/40 Partly cloudy with clouds increasing. Moisture from Willa and fast paced winds up to 15 mph will flare up some cloud cover. Dew points will juice up to upper 40’s.