Good morning everyone and happy Tuesday! I hope everyone is enjoying the start of November and the change to Standard Time. Today will be a partly sunny day across Bowling Green, KY. A high temperature of 78°F is expected this afternoon with a low temperature of 64°F moving into Wednesday. Precipitation is expected to begin after 6 PM, where areas in western Kentucky could receive over two inches of rain overnight. Southerly winds will provide gusts up to 30 miles per hour throughout the day.
Taking a broad look at the weather across the United States, a mid-latitude cyclone with a surface low near 1000 millibars has transported ample moisture and precipitation across the central United States. This surface pattern will continue to exist given the negatively-titled trough present aloft with a shortwave moving northeast and ejecting through into the Midwest, resulting in strong wind gusts in our region. Once the surface low begins to occlude, the upper level divergence and warm air advection will allow for ample rainfall.
In general, this pattern will become more common as we continue into the winter season: the temperature gradient aloft becomes more intense across the mid latitudes, creating a larger wind response in the jet stream. To keep atmospheric balance, troughing will be favored over ridging across the United States.
In other news, today is a major milestone in American meteorological forecasting. The North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model along with other legacy forecast tools are officially being retired by NCEP and NOAA. The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) and its ensemble, the REFS, have been implemented and declared operational to effectively replace the previous model suite.
That’s the weather news for today, have a nice day!
