The GFS ensembles and ECMWF continue to show the westward trend in the mean longwave trough over the United States. This suggests at least a break in the recent cold NW flow pattern that Kentucky has been in since mid-November. Some model solutions hint at a SW flow that would mean a return to the 50s and 60s while others show more of a cool zonal flow that would keep temperatures near seasonal averages. I’ll have more on this idea this weekend.
After nearly a month of below normal temperatures across the Mid-South we are finally looking at the first truly big winter storm of the season. Unfortunately for those who love snow, most of Kentucky will be on wrong side of the rain-snow line for next weeks storm. Continue reading
According to CareerBuilder.com, meteorology is a high-paying job (average salary $68,000) with decent growth potential (11%) over the next decade. See here for the entire article.
The early taste of winter will continue through at least the first week of December. In fact, some of the longer range models suggest the below normal temperatures will continue through Christmas. While we have seen lots of cold recently, we haven’t seen much in the way of precipitation. That should change by early December when a number of factors should come together to produce a major winter storm. Continue reading
An unsettled week of weather is in store for the Mid-South. None of the storms moving through this week will be strong but precipitation is possible every day through the weekend, including the possibility for the earliest snow since 1993. Continue reading
A group of climate researchers at Northern Illinois University have published a paper that shows that the Mid-South has the greatest percentage of nocturnal tornadoes in the United States. Over 40% of all tornadoes that affect Kentucky and Tennessee occur between the hours of midnight and dawn. These nocturnal tornadoes are 2.5 times more likely to be fatal than tornadoes that occur at other times. A link to a press release of the article can be found here.
The Mid-South is experiencing the first taste of winter today as arctic has spread across the region. Wind chills are barely above freezing across the Bluegrass as light rain is falling. There may even be some sleet or flurries later tonight. Lake effect snow will occur all across the Great Lakes as the arctic air moves across the relatively warmer lake water. The good news is this arctic blast will quickly come to an end and temperatures will be warmer than normal by the end of the work week. Continue reading
October is a month of building arctic cold across the prairies of Canada, so when zonal flow across the northern United States persists for the first 20 days of the month as we have seen thus far, eventually the dam breaks and the arctic air must be discharged south. When that happens, you typically see the type of wild weather headed for the Mid-South over the next two weeks. Continue reading
Current conditions show the slow-moving storm that brought heavy snow to the northern Rockies this past weekend now located over Ontario. A secondary low has developed along the cold front and is located over the Midwest. Two vorticity maxima can be seen in those same areas that are associated with the surface lows. The strong ridge over the SE has kept much of the eastern United States dry and well-above normal recently, but the approaching system should bring an end to the 80+ degree weather, for many cases until next spring. Continue reading
The Mid-South will have two good rain chances over the next 10 days. The big question will be whether the 2nd of the two rains is a drought-denter or a drought-buster. Continue reading
