Current radar shows the cold front that sparked a line of convection north of the Ohio River last night is stalling out and retrograding northward. It is expected that this boundary will become a quasistationary warm front that will continue to spawn convection along a line from SE Missouri to southern Ohio. This will help to keep south-central KY mostly dry through the afternoon hours. Continue reading
The storm expected to bring more severe weather to the Mid-South late Tuesday shares many characteristics with the storm from the week before, although it is the differences between the storms that could potentially be more worrisome. Continue reading
In the recent “ENSO diagnostic discussion“, a weekly must-read for any synoptic meteorologist, the Climate Prediction Center makes the case that La Nina conditions may persist through the fall of 2008 and possibly through winter 2008-09. Continue reading
It is not often when an 8-12″ snowstorm can be considered a “surprise”, but that was the case Sunday in SE Iowa and parts of NW Illinois. Continue reading
I have noted many times in this blog over the past year that the models have consistently done a poor job in capturing the strength of the SE ridge and its role in deflecting storms to the northwest of where models predict. This phenomenon happened yet again Thursday/Friday as the surface low from the potent Midwest storm tracked a couple of hundred miles northwest of the track predicted by both the GFS and NAM. Continue reading
A very potent winter storm will bring widespread 6″ plus snowfall to the same places that have seen quite a bit of snow the past two winters. The heaviest accumulations from this storm should approach 10″ on an axis from Springfield, MO to Detroit, MI. Synoptically, this storm has a lot of similarities to the March 20, 1996 storm that brought 8-14″ to southern IN. Continue reading
Thus far, winter has been officially snowless in Bowling Green as only a trace of snow has been measured on a few occasions. What is the historical likelihood of a snowless winter in Bowling Green? Continue reading
I have no major changes to the long-range forecast since my last post on Friday. After a light rain/snow event Wednesday night into Thursday, an arctic blast will commence late Friday and last through the beginning of the workweek with temperatures similar to the early January cold blast (highs lower 20s/lows lower teens). There may be a few flurries around on the weekend but nothing more. Continue reading
Going into the winter I predicted a wet and mild winter due to the developing La Nina in the Pacific. At the halfway point of meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) the prediction is right on track. Continue reading
My previous post outlined some caveats that represented uncertainty over the pattern evolution over the 2nd half of January. Recent data has diminished the uncertainty which means that a wickedly cold pattern should begin across the northern plains later next week that will eventually plunge much of the northern tier states into a similar pattern as the December 1-15, 2007 period. In fact, it is possible that for many northern tier states, which currently are around 10F above normal for the first 10 days of the month, January’s early anomalous warmth could be canceled out by anomalous cold. Continue reading