WKU Meteorology

Back in my summer forecast, I predicted that the pattern for Summer 2007 would consist of ridges over the Southwest and Southeast and a primary storm track along the U.S.-Canadian border. As I mentioned in my mid-summer update, from a synoptic standpoint I wasn’t far off except for one small detail. I did not predict the pesky upper-level low that got trapped between the ridges that led to the flooding across the southern Plains during June and early July. Now that the upper level low has been swept away by the cold fronts of late July, the race to 100 is on! Continue reading →

Back in late July the Climate Prediction Center made a fall drought forecast that suggest slight improvement for the Mid-South (Improving drought outlook for the Mid-South). Unfortunately, the most recent update to that forecast looks bleak. Continue reading →

In Kentucky, for July to be cooler than normal, there typically has to be a trough over the eastern United States that leads to several cold frontal passages that bring refreshing relief from the typical tropical air mass that resides over the Mid-South during summer. Since cold frontal thunderstorms often have better spatial coverage than convectively produced air mass thunderstorms, it is common for a cooler than normal July to also have normal to above normal precipitation. Not in 2007. Continue reading →

The Weather and Climate Forums is a new way for citizens of Kentucky to communicate drought impacts that may affect agriculture, business and industry, the environment, and social and recreational activities. The website can be found at http://forums.kymesonet.org/ and is organized by the Kentucky Climate Center at Western Kentucky University and the Kentucky Mesonet, a high-density, network of automated environmental monitoring stations currently being developed across the commonwealth. Examples of recent postings are a fish kill reported in an impoundment along route 460 in Franklin County due to low lake levels and warm water.

If you are interested in contributing, please go to http://forums.kymesonet.org/ to register.

The drought status of the Southeast has not changed appreciably over the past several weeks as periodic rainfall has kept the drought from spreading or intensifying. As you can see from last week’s U.S. Drought Monitormap, the core of the drought is still centered over northern Alabama, where rainfall is nearly 20 inches short for the year to date. Drought conditions in the Mid-South range from primarily extreme drought over south-central TN to abnormally dry over north-central KY. There is some good news on the horizon… Continue reading →

Back on June 3rd I produced a post titled “Summer weather outlook for Kentucky” and promised to provide periodic updates throughout the summer. Since meteorological summer is officially half over (June-August), consider this the mid-summer review. I will break down each of my original predictions and summarize with my expectations for the rest of the summer. Continue reading →

Back in the first week of June I wrote here that Kentucky needed at least 4 inches of rain during June to either improve the drought conditions or maintain it at a moderate level. Unfortunately, much of Kentucky currently has less than one inch of rain through the 20th and many locations, including Bowling Green, could end up with the driest June ever. This will push our drought conditions to severe and possibly exceptional levels over the next few months and will likely make the drought of 2007 one of the worst in the past 100 years. Continue reading →

As predicted in my summer forecast posted here, the Climate Prediction Center has changed their summer drought forecast to reflect my idea that…

…I think the summer of 2007 could be the warmest since 1999 and I think drought conditions will worsen across the Commonwealth.

Continue reading →

Bowling Green tentatively set a new record high minimum this morning with a low of 78 degrees, breaking the previous record of 76 degrees set in 1933. This record is only tentative since the temperature may fall below 76 degrees during a thunderstorm this afternoon/evening or simply due to diurnal cooling before midnight.

UPDATE: The temperature at Bowling Green fell to 71 degrees at 12:53 pm following the thunderstorm, thus there will be no record high minimum today.