Where does this winter rank?

Posted on March 16, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

NOAA has produced a report that shows that while winter (Dec-Feb) across the United States was near normal, globally, the winter of 2006-07 was the warmest such period since measurements began in 1880. You can access the entire report here. It is pretty apparent that this past winter was very warm world-wide when you look at an image like this. The good news is that precipitation was up globally.

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Subtropical jet stream to return late next week

Posted on March 16, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

After a two week absence that has kept the Southeast free of severe weather, the subtropical jet stream will make a return next week, which should help to alleviate developing drought conditions in this region. A look at the current upper level flow shows a ridge over California and the polar jet stream riding over the ridge and diving into the Midwest, which is the source of our cooler than normal weekend weather. This West Coast ridge has pushed temperatures to near the century mark over Arizona. A strong Pacific storm will lower heights along the West Coast and raise heights over the central plains, which will push temperatures into the 70s and 80s in that region. Continue reading →

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Actually, make that a direct hit for the Northeast

Posted on March 14, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

A significant change has occurred since my last post. I believed that the remnants of the upper level low currently over the southern Plains would merge with the clipper moving down from Canada Thursday, which would bring a heavy rain event to New England.

Boy, was I wrong. Continue reading →

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Near miss for the Northeast

Posted on March 12, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

In my last post I outlined the likely scenario for the Northeast for the upcoming cold shot. The questions I had appear to be answered, and it looks as if much of the Northeast will miss out on what could be the last good shot at another snowstorm. Continue reading →

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Cold weekend for Kentucky

Posted on March 12, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

After a mild week, much colder air is expected to return to Kentucky for the weekend. I expect highs Saturday in the middle to upper 40s and highs in the low 50s for Sunday. Normal highs for this time of year around 60 degrees. Spring should return early next week as temperatures should soar back into the low 70s. There are no signs of severe weather for the mid-south anywhere on the horizon.

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Winter to return after Spring Break

Posted on March 8, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

While the CPC is showing mild weather across the U.S. through 3/22, I expect this to be changed radically in the coming days. Both the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF show the return of a wintry pattern to the Great Lakes and Northeast. As mentioned yesterday, some of the ensembles had been hinting at a cold clipper breaking down the flat ridge over the midsection of the country. Today, nearly all of the GFS ensembles and the European suggest that winter is not over yet. Continue reading →

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Spring Break Forecast

Posted on March 7, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

NOTE: If you’ve noticed I haven’t had a weather post in over a week that would be because were are in a very tranquil weather pattern. March may have come in like a lion but it is definitely coasting through mid-month like a lamb, as I predicted back on February 26th (see the last sentence). Quiet times like this give me the opportunity to post on statistical climatology and global warming.

College students everywhere will be flocking to beaches over the next few days so I thought I’d produce a Spring Break forecast for popular vacation hotspots. If you are going to a place that I don’t mention, add a comment and I will update the forecast with the new location. Continue reading →

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Severe Weather Seminar in Paducah with Dr. Charles Doswell

Posted on March 5, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

From the Paducah NWS office website…

On Friday, March 16, WFO Paducah will host the Infamous Tornadoes Severe Weather Seminar, which will review our nation’s deadliest tornado, the Great Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925, and our nation’s deadliest tornado of this decade, the November 6, 2005 Evansville tornado. The conference will feature Dr. Charles A. Doswell III, who will share modern day research findings on the Tri-State Tornado, along with Ron Przybylinski, who will share research findings on the November 6, 2005 Evansville tornado. The conference will be held in Carterville, Illinois at the John A. Logan College O’Neil Auditorium. If you wish to attend please be sure to register using the link here. Additional information will be posted to this web page as the event draws closer.

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Did Global Warming influence our crazy winter?

Posted on March 3, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

Now that the winter of 2006-07 is officially in the books it is clear that this was a winter of extremes. December and January both featured monthly anomalies 5-6 degrees above normal while February was around 7 degrees below normal (the official climate division values are not in yet). Now, as you would expect, there are already stories out there in cyberspace debating whether or not this anomalous winter was influenced by Global Warming. In fact, Elliot Abrams of AccuWeather recently wrote in his blog about Philadelphia…

February was more than 16 degrees colder than January, a stunning turnaround. Some researchers have suggested that with global warming we will see more extremes. Was this part of that, or would it have happened anyway? What’s the best way to answer that question?

Here’s how this researcher would do it. Continue reading →

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The Weather Channel, Global Warming, and February rain in Chicago

Posted on March 2, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

During the recent blizzard/tornado event on March 1st, Chicago was in the mid-40s and received over an inch of rain. According to the discussion boards at Easternuswx.com, during the February 28th broadcast of “Abrams & Bettes”, Stephanie Abrams said she “spoke to her elders” in the Chicago area, and that “they could never remember a February where they ever had rain” (in actuality she was referring to the predicted rain for March 1st, but since the show aired February 28th, she forgot the predicted rain would occur in March and not February). She even reportedly asked the on-site reporter from Chicago what his thoughts were on this unusual February rain. (Disclosure: I didn’t see the broadcast, so I can’t verify if this is true). Having lived in Chicago from 1980-1990, I have a good memory of what winter is like and I seem to remember quite a few February rains. But rather than rely solely on my memory (as Ms. Abrams and her elders apparently did), I decided to research the matter for myself. Continue reading →

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