Weekend Weather

Greetings!

This Friday morning will start of quite and cooler with temperature this morning is upper 30s to the lower 40s around the area. However, as the day goes on clouds will increase as the surface low swings from Canada into the Midwest which will bring a cold front with rain in late afternoon to evening hours to our area.

According to the 12Z HRRR, the rain will get here around 5-6 pm Friday  and stay till early Saturday morning. 

The cold front will bring cooler temperatures with a high in the mid 60s and low temperatures in the mid 30s. But as pressure gradient become closer together  with the trough axis passing through, the wind speeds will increase on Saturday. Looking at wind speeds of 15-20 mph with stronger wind gust.  Below is 06z  GFS at  700 mb level (Mid level atmosphere) showing stronger winds  over our area. Please note that winds will not be this strong at the surface, but it is indicating a windy Saturday.

Summary:

Friday: Upper 60s/ lower 50s with a high chance of rain this evening

Saturday: mid 60s/  mid 30s windy and clouds clearing as the day goes on

Sunday: upper 50s/ mid 30s sunny

 

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Is Fall here to stay??

Good afternoon folks!

It has been a gorgeous day for your Thursday here in south central Kentucky. Nothing but sunny skies and highs topping out around 60° thanks to an area of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley. Heading into tonight, that area of high pressure will move east keeping the skies mostly clear, with temperatures dropping back down into the mid-to-upper 30s. Temperatures should stay above that freezing mark for the Bowling Green area, but a few low-lying areas could see some patchy frost.

Below: NAM Fri 2018-10-19 12z 2m AGL Temperature

The gorgeous, fall-like conditions will continue heading into most of the day on Friday. Skies will start out sunny but clouds will be on the increase from west to east as the day goes on, thanks to a surface cold front associated with an upper-level trough. This cold front could spark off a few showers heading into the evening hours as deeper moisture moves into the area. High temperature for Friday will climb to around 68°.

Below: NAM Sat-2018-10-20 00z Composite Reflectivity, Type, 1000-500 mb Thickness

The rain will continue into the overnight hours on Friday before clearing out Saturday late morning thanks to high pressure building out to the west. Gradual clearing will continue throughout the afternoon hours on Saturday. Highs will not have as good as a chance to rebound due to cloud cover in the morning, but temperatures will top out around 63°.

Forecast for the next few days:

Tonight: Mostly clear skies with a low around 36° winds becoming calm during the overnight hours

Friday: Mostly clear skies before noon with increasing clouds in the afternoon, high topping out around 68°. Shower chances will increase heading into the evening hours.

Friday night: Showers are likely with a low of 50°. Rain totals around the area between a quarter and half inch.

Saturday: Cloudy skies through noon, then gradual clearing throughout the afternoon hours, with a high near 64°.

6-10 Day Outlook (Oct 24-28): Temperature & Precipitation

Temperatures for the area heading into late next week and weekend have a good chance of staying below average with a greater chance for above average precipitation during that stretch.

 

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First Frost of the Season?

Good evening!

What a beautiful day it was across much of Kentucky!  We climbed to 68 degrees here in Bowling Green, with only a few clouds in the sky.  No doubt it’s sweater season though, as it was a chilly start in the early morning hours.  More of that is likely to come over the next week!

In fact, as the 21z RAP model here tries to illustrate, tomorrow morning could come with temperatures cold enough for frost to form.  The NWS has even issued a frost advisory; here it is-

Lows across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass
  region of Kentucky are expected to drop to 30-35 degrees by
  daybreak Thursday. Lows across much of the rest of Kentucky are
  expected to drop into the 32-37 degree range, which is cold
  enough for frost development.

With that being said, get those plants susceptible to cold weather indoors or covered!  And as we look towards the longer range, there are even more chances for colder temperatures.  Fall is really here, folks!

Above is the 18z run of the GFS model.  This really only gives us a general idea of what the upcoming pattern could be like!  However, watching those darker blues dip into our general area a few times (especially towards the end) makes me want to go get a glass of piping hot cocoa.  Of course, Florida is really the only state staying warm through this pattern.

Since colder temperatures are coming, when will that first freeze be?  Sunday could be close.  Right now, it is forecast to dip into the lower 30s before dawn on Monday morning.  There will likely be a light freeze across some of the more rural areas in Kentucky, and could even be so in Bowling Green.  No doubt about it, it’s time to keep that sweater on hand.  And hang on to those umbrellas too- chances are increasing on Friday for rain showers, but should clear up in time for the WKU vs. Old Dominion football game.  Stay tuned for up to date information on Friday’s rain chances!

 

Tonight: Frost Advisory in effect, low of 37 degrees with clear to partly cloudy skies

Tomorrow: High of 58, clear to partly cloudy skies

Tomorrow night: Cold again, low of 39 degrees with clear skies

 

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Cool Shift Dries Out the Leaves for Fall

Afternoon lads!

Well, after a soggy Monday, there is much to look forward to for the rest of the week if your looking to stay dry. Yesterday’s rain contributed to 1.58″ of rain in the bucket for those of  Bowling Green, Ky (courtesy of NWS Climatological Report). However, things will start to cool off and dry out with steady northerly winds from our north. Also, thanks to some fair weather makers we’ll get to see 60°F for our high temperature on Wednesday.

A big high pressure out West U.S. stretches laterally into the Midwest the OH Valley region. The surface analysis below indicates this response to the atmosphere. Count how many “blue H’s” are on the map… merely 4 high pressured zones. Northerly flow keeps the air high and dry for many to the west and north of the Mid-South region. We’ll stay dry as well for the most part for the next couple of days. Cloudy skies today will brush off towards the Southeast coast by tomorrow. Maximum temperatures are to reach around 58°F for today. Clearing of skies for Wednesday along with sunshine will tempt temperatures to surpass 60°F.

Keep an eye on the area outlined in blue for this low pressure is channeling a slight cold punch for a Frost Warning Thursday morning. Temperatures will be mid-30’s briefly at the dawn of the morning. But due to these high pressure zones temperatures will warm up to upper 50’s at the peak of the day.

TUES: Mostly cloudy, a calm wind from the north. Conditions are mainly dry although majority clouds for the region. A maximum temperature of 58°F and a minimum of 42°F. 

TUES NIGHT: Mostly clear, with frigid conditions as the dew point temperatures will be low 40’s and upper 30’s. Clear skies make for cooler/drier nights… that’s vital to be aware of. Temperature overnight around 44°F.

WEDN: Mostly sunny, a slight northeastern wind creating a beautiful fall-like feel to the atmosphere. A high pressured zone in the area still prevails! High temperatures are sure to reach 60°F but no more than a degree higher and a low temperature of 42°F.

 

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Prime Pumpkin Pickin’ Conditions

If you’re on any social media platform, you have most likely already seen a plethora of pictures about Fall and everything associated with it. From flannels to farm and orchard visits to Fall-flavored drinks, many people have been all about this first shot of Fall weather. And the good news for those people is high pressure to our west will keep conditions similar to what we’ve had. Better yet, that sweater weather will continue without the constant rain for at least the next few days, so you can enjoy those mid-week corn mazes without worrying about washing off your shoes before hopping back into the car.

For tomorrow, rain should stay south of the KY-TN border, but we will see our fair share of cloud cover here in the Commonwealth. After a mild morning start around 42 degrees, temps warm up nicely to near 60.

00Z GFS showing rain to our south for Tuesday. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

 

Wednesday will be a warm day, but not before we see temps drop into the mid 30s. The chilly morning start will give way to a much warmer afternoon with a high of 65. Sky conditions will also be improving both Wednesday and Thursday as the clouds move out, and sunshine makes a welcomed return.

00Z GFS showing afternoon temps in the 60s. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

 

 

Lows will be low on Thursday. For those using the bus in the morning, you’ll need to crack out the winter coat or at least go with the sweater-hoodie combo. This will especially be true for children. By the end of the work or school day, it will be just warm enough to take off the hoodie, but keep on that comfy sweater!

00Z Nam showing near freezing low temps on Thursday morning. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

 

 

Tuesday: Low of 42 and a high of 59. Cloud cover will persist most of the day.

Wednesday: The pick of the week in terms of weather. Clear skies with a cold start but quickly warming to a high of 65.

Thursday: A chilly start in the low to mid 30s but warming up to the mid 50s later in the day.

 

With the temperatures making their way into the 30s, it would be wise to move the more delicate plants indoors. Patchy frost will be possible Wednesday morning and even more likely Thursday morning for those living outside the city limits.

Side note, this was our fourth Monday out of the past six that Bowling Green has received some amount of rainfall, so make sure to tune in later this week to see if the Monday wet streak will continue.

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It’s Fall Y’all!

Good afternoon everyone!

As we move into the new week, we continue to think about and pray for those affected by Hurricane Michael. Please help in anyway you can to bring those affected to peace.

Now on to Bowling Green! Right now we have some warm air advection hanging over the area that will account for today’s warmer high of 65. This will be pushed out of the way by a cold front that will come through sometime after midnight leading to more rain. This cold front will also push the WAA out of the way bringing in a cold air advection and cooler temperatures.

Warm Air Advection (red) and Cold Air Advection (blue) via GFS

Surface observations with the cold front to the west

Thankfully the temperatures don’t look to hit above 65 this next week. Unfortunately, we will be experiencing some rain today through Monday night. Our temperatures this next week will remain below average, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

GFS temperatures for the next few days

We will continue to see rain today through Monday night. Tuesday skies will be partly sunny. There is the potential for a few leftover showers.

GFS precipitation rates and type

Summary:

  • Sunday
    • High: 65
    • Low: 59
    • Rain today through Monday night accumulating to around .5 inches
  • Monday
    • High: 60
    • Low: 43
    • Rain through Monday night
  • Tuesday
    • High: 56
    • Low: 38
    • Partly sunny with the potential for leftover showers

As always, stay safe and have a good week!

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Fall like Temperatures

Greetings!

Fall has finally arrived! With the highs in the low 60s, it is around average for this time of year. However, the temperatures looks to be below average for the next couple of days.  With the high for Friday to be around 61 and low to 39. That is chill for this time of year. It is not well below average, but it is still not the average temperatures for this time.

Below is the 06z NAM

This is 21z (4 PM central) after the peak temperature in the low 60s.

Today will start off pretty with increasing chance of rain into the evening hours then will clear up late tonight into Saturday morning. The shortwave’s axis is currently over North and South Dakota at 12z (7 AM central time) and is heading south east into our area. It will kick off some light showers in the evening hours.

Saturday will be cooler compared to Friday and Sunday, with a high in the upper 50s  and low in the upper 40s. Starting Sunday things become a little soggy. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will come and bring rain to the Ohio valley. Following the remnants, embedded  shortwaves in a deepening trough will spark up more chances of rain in the beginning of next week.

Summary:

Friday: 61/42 chance of rain in the evening hours

Saturday: 58/48

Sunday: 60/57 great chance of rain through out the day

 

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Fall-like temperatures, are they here to stay?

Good evening folks!

Mostly cloudy skies quickly moved on out of here earlier today giving way to a perfect Thursday. Temperatures around the Bowling Green area top out in the low to middle 60s. An area of high pressure will make its way towards the area during the overnight hours leaving nothing but clear skies. The clear skies during the night time hours will help the temperatures drop into low 40s. Expected even lower temperatures in the low lying valleys as cooler air tends to sink into the valleys.

Below: HRRR Fri 2018-10-12 12Z 2m AGL Temperature (°F)

Cool morning temperatures should rebound quickly from abundant sunshine during the first half of Friday. Highs will be limited, topping out around 61° during the afternoon ours as clouds as partly cloudy skies build in from the west. Most of the day tomorrow looks dry, but rain chances increase heading into the evening hours as a fast-moving shortwave trough moves in from the west. Even though the rain chances increase in the evening hours of Friday, model guidance is hinting at the rain being light.

Below: NAM Sat 2018-10-13 03Z 500 mb Height, Wind

This pesky shortwave will move on out of here before we know giving way to mostly clear skies during the overnight hours on Friday. Low temperatures for Friday night will drop into the lower 40s. An area of high pressure will begin to build in the Ohio River Valley resulting in a dry Saturday and Saturday evening. High temperatures for Saturday will top out around 58°. Fall is in the air folks!!

Forecast

Friday: Sunny skies with a high temperature of 61° winds out of the NW at 10 mph.

Friday Night: Chance of rain throughout the night with otherwise mostly cloudy skies, low temperature of 43° winds out of the NW at 7-10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny skies, cool, high temperature of 58° with winds out of the NE at 5 mph.

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Hurricane Michael: Less than 24 hours until landfall

Hurricane Michael loop from about 11pm-12:30am CDT, Wednesday, Oct. 10th. – Courtesy Tropical Tidbits

In less than 24 hours, it is feasible that the first Category 4 hurricane to hit the U.S. in 14 years will make landfall. The last one was Hurricane Charley in 2004. Now, Hurricane Michael has its eye set on the Florida panhandle and seems to be zoning in on Panama City. It is currently churning about 200 miles off the coast of Florida, and its current sustained winds are 130 mph and moving N at 12 mph. The above Longwave Infrared imagery GIF shows the location the coldest cloud tops (white and pink colors), thus depicting the strongest thunderstorms. The northern and eastern sides of the eyewall have quickly intensified over the past hour and a half around the very well defined eye.

Predicted Storm Surge Inundation – Courtesy of NHC

While the eye will pass very close to Panama City Beach, the most extensive damage will probably occur in the Apalachicola and East Bay areas due to storm surge. Many parts of Franklin and Wakulla counties will experience storm surge greater than 9 feet above ground. This is also possible for the southern part of Jefferson county and northeastern Taylor county. The northeastern side of the storm typically packs the biggest punch considering the counterclockwise winds help spin up more tornadoes in this quadrant than any of the other quadrants, contains the highest windspeeds, and causes the worst storm surge inundation. This can change based on the trajectory of the storm and the topography of the area, but these effects are exactly what residents from St. Vincent Sound to Port Leon along Route 98 can expect. St. George Island residents will experience the full force of Hurricane Michael’s NE quadrant, so it is wise to board up and ship out faster than already done.

 

Inland areas that don’t experience flooding from storm surge could still see flooding rains. Predicted amounts range from 6-10 inches on the high end. These amounts are possible for Florida, extreme southeastern Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

 

Cone of Probable Path of the center of the storm – Courtesy of NHC

Hurricane Michael is predicted to be a Tropical Storm long after it makes landfall and even as it re-enters the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. This will extend the potential for damaging winds and flooding through Alabama, Georgia, South and North Carolina, and Virginia. As panhandle residents evacuate, it would be best to head North toward Birmingham, AL., if you are located West of Tallahassee, and head East or Southeast toward Jacksonville and Orlando, FL., if you live East of Tallahassee.

 

Tropical Storm Force Wind probabilities – Courtesy of NHC

As noted above, most of the panhandle is highly likely (between 90-100% chance)  to experience tropical storm force winds. These winds can cause power outages and toss light objects with large surface areas, so be sure to bring in the trashcans and anchor the trampolines or they may become flying projectiles and cause further damage to life and property.

Yes, if this hurricane continues as predicted in both path and intensity, it will be an extremely dangerous storm. Yes, human lives will be in danger, and property will be damaged. And yes, it would be best to evacuate as long as authorities still allow it. If you live on the coast of the panhandle or in a low lying area close to the coast, there’s no question about it: leave and seek shelter elsewhere if possible. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the Florida panhandle, and states of emergency have been declared in Florida, Alabama, and Georgia.

For those that choose to stay, DO NOT use the portable generator inside of the house or garage. Carbon monoxide build-up from the generator is odorless and kills numerous people every year. You won’t know you’re in danger until it is already too late. Store shelves are most likely empty, so make sure you have filled up a clean bathtub with clean water for boiling and washing yourself. Those that live in mobile homes should ask to seek shelter at a local church or other well built, elevated building. If you must drive during or after the storm and come across a flooded road, TURN AROUND and DON’T DROWN. You never know if the road is washed out underneath the water.

At the end of the day, stay safe and be wise. Many people are praying for the safety of you and your family.

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Pleasant Breezes for Fall Season

Good afternoon folks!

Tuesday’s forecast is set to be a beautiful day in Bowling Green, Ky. Today would be perfect to get outside and enjoy the weather, there won’t be any complaints with this one. A sustained high pressure hanging on the southeastern coast for dear life keeping the temperatures warm – highs well into the 80 degree mark. Gusty winds out of the South up to 20 miles per hour suites for a decent push of air throughout your Tuesday. Conditions won’t be too terribly humid today partly because of these winds and some cloud cover. This trend of onslaught moisture is soon to end after Wednesday, then a cold front pushes from the north dwelling into the Mid-South region by Thursday morning.  Surface observation valid for Tues., around 11AM displays the south-easterly flow of winds and the pressure rising for areas along the MS Valley/Mid-South region. Expect to see some low clouds this afternoon but not as much moisture associated with the wind power, so Tuesday stays dry for the most part.

Surface Obs. of Regional U.S showing that distinctive boundary out in the OK panhandle into IA. (courtesy of WPC)

 

Wednesday shapes up to be sort of wonky for your weather forecast. Like I said earlier, a high pressure zone continues to linger bringing some fairer skies to the Mid-South region. However, on oncoming cold front associated with a surface low has been developing and shifts into the Midwest region by Wednesday. This shortwave trough will create slight disturbances along with it’s formation and some lifting of clouds. Meanwhile, an increase in humidity and moisture for Wednesday’s forecast is associated with Hurricane Michael right off the Gulf coast. NAM model guidance is revealing a possibility of popped showers for the afternoon hours. Depending on how fast moving this shortwave of cold air squeezes into the region the less rainfall we’ll tend to receive for Wednesday. Thursday and Friday tend to be parched for moisture feeling a lot like the fall season after the cold front approaches.

1000-500 mb Thickness just prior to the noon hour on Wednesday displays the temperature difference at different height levels. Advection along the MS Valley into the Midwest region. (courtesy of PivotalWeather)

Dew points are relevant to the conditional state of how much moisture is in the atmosphere. For Tuesday dew points will be fairly comfortable with readings of upper 60’s, as the gusty winds give a rather breezy feeling than overwhelming humidity. Wednesday dew points reading low 70’s, which that interval of 5-10 degrees between the two conditions is a very noticeable difference. Both NAM and the GFS are in agreement with saying that dew points will reach up to low 70’s. Expect Wednesday to be hot and humid again with some increasing of clouds. This mechanism is expected to cause rainfall and the possibility of a thunderstorm Wednesday evening.

Dew point temperature readings for 21Z (4PM) showing that southern intake of moisture. (courtesy of PivotalWeather)

FORECAST:

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A few clouds in the area but we’ll stay dry for today 0% chance for rain. Gusty winds ranging from 10-15 mph out of the S/SE. Temperatures feeling perfect with dew points in the upper 60’s and breezy conditions.

High: 86/ Low: 70

Rain: 0.00″

Tuesday PM: Partly cloudy. A pleasant breeze and an overnight low temperature of about 70 degrees. Less humid air for the evening with dew points in the low to mid 60’s. 10% chance of rain overnight into the early AM hours.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy during the day, although clouds will increase with humidity and moisture on the incline due to Hurricane Michael. Medium chances for showers mostly in the afternoon and evening… 70% due to the moisture factor. A persistent breeze of about 5-10 mph from the South before the cold sector shifts the movement North overnight into Thursday.

High: 84/ Low: 59

Rain: ~0.05″

 

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