WKU Meteorology

Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

WKU Meteorology - Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

A look at this weekend’s forecast

Bowling Green is currently 33 degrees according to the Kentucky Mesonet. Radar shows snow showers in northern Kentucky moving south, so we could potentially see a dusting of snow this evening.

snow1

A cold front passed through earlier today and the temperatures will continue to drop tonight and tomorrow as high pressure moves into the region.  While we remain east of the center of high pressure, we will experience colder temperatures, with lows tonight dropping below 20. This high pressure will move to the east Friday and Saturday. The NAM 2-meter surface temperature for Saturday morning shows very cold arctic air to our north as this high pressure moves eastward.

nam cold temps

Saturday and Sunday we can expect temperatures to warm up as winds become more southerly. Models are showing a stationary front starting to develop late Saturday into Sunday which will keep skies overcast and giving us a chance for rain. The WPC Surface Analysis for Sunday shows this stationary front stretching across the country.

surface sunday

It will be nice to have a brief warm-up this weekend. Though it is still 5 days out, Tuesday of next week looks to be a peek at spring with highs in the 60s and a chance of thunderstorms. This could all change with new model outputs, so be sure to check back soon for another update!

Have a fantastic weekend!

Bowling Green’s 5-Day Forecast:

  • Tonight: A chance of flurries, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wind chill values as low as 9. North wind 6 to 9 mph.
  • Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Wind chill values as low as 9. North wind around 8 mph.
  • Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Wind chill values as low as 7. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
  • Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39. East wind 6 to 8 mph.
  • Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
  • Sunday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 48.
  • Sunday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Monday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 44.
  • Monday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Tuesday: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

 

 

More cold, but nothing like last week!

Last week was quite the week for record-breaking cold and snow, as well as icing, flooding, and significant rain totals to finish up the weekend. To recap on some of the memorable events last week, Bowling Green received 9.6 inches of snow after the snow event on Monday, February 16th. The last time Bowling Green saw this much snow was March of 1968. Low temperatures broke records with -7 degrees on Thursday, February 19th and -4 degrees on Friday, February 20th. After additional accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain Friday through Sunday, the 2-day total for precipitation amounts for Bowling Green were around 2.5 inches, not including the already existing snow pack.

2-Day precip

The jet streams have been in a very active pattern for the last few weeks and look to continue on this way for the foreseeable future. The 250mb winds, with North America positioned at the bottom center of the globe, show a meridional pattern over most of the northern hemisphere. As long as the jet streams remain in this pattern, we should continue to see interesting weather.

null

As for the weather this week, we have another upper-level trough swinging through bringing more arctic air into the region. A high pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley region during the early part of the week, meaning we should see more sunshine and calm conditions. The NAM Surface Map for Monday morning shows this high pressure system off to the west and northerly winds in our area. NAM 2-23 12Z

Fortunately, it looks as if this week will be nothing like last week in terms of precipitation, however, we can’t seem to shake the cold. So bundle up and check back later in the week for an update on the weekend!

Bowling Green’s 5-Day Forecast

  •  Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as 1. North wind 8 to 11 mph.
  • Monday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as 1. North wind 7 to 11 mph.
  • Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
  • Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Wind chill values as low as 6. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
  • Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.
  • Wednesday Night: Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
  • Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.
  • Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7.

 

Bowling Green Post Winter Storm

The current snow depth across much of the state is impressive to say the least! Bowling Green saw one of its largest snow events in a single day. Depending on the official snow depth, the 10 inches of snow that fell yesterday would be the largest since the 1960’s.

Here is a look at the U.S snow cover.

nsm_depth_2015021705_National

 

 

That much snow has a big impact on temperatures! Here is what the temperatures were around 7 am this morning. We are talking near record lows!

Capture

 

Today: High 22, Low 18

The snow pack will keep temperatures from warming too much, even with the sun shining all day. Even with the temperatures so cold, the sun mixed with temperatures in the low 20’s will allow decent melting on the main roads today. Even so, only head out in case of an emergency. Most roads are still virtually impassable, and multiple vehicles are abandoned on the sides of roads all across the city.

With that being said, we have another shot at snow tonight and tomorrow. A clipper system could bring 1 to 2 inches of dry snow to the region to add to our current snow depth. This would once again make the morning commute for Wednesday extremely treacherous.

nam4kmCGP_prec_radar_021

NAM 4k Simulated Reflectivity at 3 am Wednesday

The NAM models are spitting out anywhere from .1 to .3 inches of moisture with this clipper. With snow ratios of 15:1 or 20:1 that could mean 1 to 3 inches of snow across the area. However, the air is dry and part of that may not reach the ground.

Wednesday: High temperatures will be a tad bit cooler than Tuesday. Snow squalls will be a concern throughout much of the day with the passing of the cold front. A snow squall, while rather isolated, can drop heavy snow in a short amount of time, and everything that falls will stick. Here is a look at the NAM 4k once again showing the potential for scattered squalls tomorrow.

nam4kmCGP_prec_radar_033

NAM 4k Simulated Reflectivity at 3 pm Wednesday

Some areas may see 2 to 3 inches of snow by tomorrow evening if they pick up snow with both the clipper and snow squalls. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow looks like a good bet for most people through tomorrow evening.

Record low temperatures will be heading our way by late week along with another storm by the weekend. This storm continues to look more and more like a rain make, but it has the chance to start out as snow.

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as 8. West wind 3 to 8 mph.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as 4. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 2pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 8 to 16 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -21. West wind 6 to 11 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. West wind 7 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27.

Friday Night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

 

Winter Storm Warning for Bowling Green

Sunday – High 24: Sunday Night – Low 21

A major Winter Storm is headed toward south central Kentucky, with Bowling Green currently in the bulls-eye for model guidance snowfall accumulation. While the models have been all over the place the past several days, they have all trended toward generally the same solution.

The NWS Lousiville has issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of their coverage area. Here is the snowfall predictions from them.

NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

I don’t see any reason to waiver from their forecast as it looks like this will most definitely be a potent storm system with heavy banded precipitation. Extremely heavy snow will fall at times and travel will be virtually impossible during the day Monday.

Timing: Snow will begin between 9 pm Sunday and 3 am Monday. It will last throughout much of the day Monday. The heaviest snow will fall from just before sunup til early afternoon.

Here is a look at the simulated reflectivity from the NAM model for 6pm tonight, 6am Monday and 12pm Monday. This particular model continues to bring the moisture in earlier then the rest ( by 6 tonighht ). The initial dry air may limit much from reaching the ground. But a heavier burst from the initial wave can certainly put a white layer down.

namSE_prec_radar_018 namSE_prec_radar_030 namSE_prec_radar_036

 

So why is Bowling Green in the bulls-eye for a major winter storm after not seeing a heavy snow in a long time??

Bowling Green is climatologically in a poor location for the track of the low pressure to combine with adequate cold air to allow for all snow systems. The difference with this system is the strong Arctic high that has helped cold air push much farther south than usual with this particular track of a low pressure. Another big player is the more zonal track of the system as opposed to the common SW to NE moving winter storms. Those will generally be all rain for Bowling Green and snow for places like Southern Indiana and North.

The rest of the week:

We have potential for light snow once again on Wednesday. Nothing major, but another light accumulation can add up with little snow melt because of the cold.

Another system looks poised to move into the region next weekend. This system bares watching as it also has ample cold air and moisture at hand.

 

5 Day Forecast

TodayIncreasing clouds and cold, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northeast wind around 7 mph.

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as 8. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Washington’s Birthday: Snow, mainly before 5pm. High near 26. Wind chill values as low as 9. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 8 inches.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. North wind 3 to 5 mph.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. West wind 3 to 7 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 18.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 18.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Welcoming Back Old Man Winter

Currently in Bowling Green it is 30 degrees. There is a wind out of the NW at 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph at times. This steady wind has made the wind chill factor as cool as 20 degrees at times. The cold front that entered the Bowling Green community yesterday evening is now exiting to our east, and high pressure is now settling  northwest of the region. Looking into the future, old man winter may be bringing accumulating snow to the Bowling Green area early next week.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fbw.gifThe above image is surface observations courtesy of the NOAA.


 5 Day Outlook

Tonight: Tonight looks to be partly cloudy with a low of 12 degrees. Winds 6-15 mph, wind chills as low as 6 degrees.

Friday: Cloudy at times with a chance of a snow shower. High of 33 degrees.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, low of 25 degrees.

Saturday: Slight chance of snow, high of 40 degrees.

Saturday Night: Very cold, clear. Low of 9 degrees.

Sunday: Cold, high of 23 degrees.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, cold. Low of 14 degrees.

Monday: High of 32 degrees. Chance of snow, 40%. Accumulations possible.


 

Colder Weather Knocking on the Door

Currently:

Currently in Bowling Green it is 38 degrees. It is slightly warmer than yesterday, but do not depend on the weather getting much warmer because we are going to see a steep drop in temperatures in the next 36 hours.

Current conditions in Bowling Green, Courtesy of the KY Mesonet.

Current conditions in Bowling Green, Courtesy of the KY Mesonet.


Wednesday:

Wednesday is shaping up to be warmer than Tuesday, but a steep drop in temperatures will occur in the early evening hours due to a cold front that will be moving into the region from the northwest.  A dusting of snow is possible with this system during the overnight hours.


 

Thursday:

A chance of snow will continue through Thursday afternoon, and cold temperatures will settle into the region as the frontal system proceeds eastward and high pressure settles northwest of the area.


 

5 Day Outlook:

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy and cold, low of 28 degrees.

Wednesday Afternoon: Seasonably warm, sunny, high of 53 degrees.

Wednesday Night: Cold, with an occasional snow shower into the early morning hours. Low of 23 degrees. Chance of snow: 20%

Thursday Afternoon: Cold with occasional snow showers. High of 27 degrees. Chance of snow: 20%

Thursday Night: Very cold, low of 11 degrees.

Friday Afternoon: Mostly sunny, High of 32 degrees.

Friday Night: Cold and cloudy, low of 23 degrees.

Saturday Afternoon: Partly cloudy, high of 30 degrees.


A Rainy Start to the Weekend

Real time Bowling Green Radar:

Rain is on the way and it will be heavy at times. A rumble of thunder is even possible in some of the heavier downpours. Make sure and pack an umbrella as you head out the door.

The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 1 – 2 inches of rain for the area.

WPC 2 Day Rainfall Forecast

WPC 2 Day Rainfall Forecast

We will reside in the warm sector of a stationary front today, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 60’s! Numerous downpours will also be a result and will lead to the heavy rainfall totals across the area.

NWS Surface Map for Today

NWS Surface Map for Today

The strongest surge of precipitation will arrive later this afternoon into the evening hours. The NAM simulated reflectivity shows a heavy swath of rain covering the entire area. This will persist into the overnight hours.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity at 6pm Tonight

NAM Simulated Reflectivity at 6pm Tonight

 

Saturday:

The heaviest rain will move out of the region by early morning with only a few scattered showers left behind. Still, pack an umbrella when heading out to the local Christmas parades. Temperatures will plummet throughout the day tomorrow! It will most definitely feel chilly by the afternoon.

Sunday: 

We will be back to slightly cooler than normal temperatures across the area Sunday. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 40’s. However, the sun will make a return for part of the day.

5 Day Outlook:

Today: Periods of rain. High near 64. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Low around 59. South wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 60. West wind 8 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 9 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 51.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

The Dreary Weather Continues

We will see a break in the rain today, however persistent clouds will limit the sunshine. The visible satellite shows thick cloud cover stretching back to the west. This will help keep us cooler today with high temperatures topping out in the mid 40’s across the region. A break in the clouds is possible by late afternoon.

satellite image

Aviation Weather Visible Satellite

 

Thursday:

Rain chances enter back into the picture tomorrow. A deep moisture field streaming from the gulf will allow decent rain chances during the afternoon and evening. Rain totals should be rather light.

NAM 700mb Relative Humidity

NAM 700mb Relative Humidity

 

Friday: 

The abundant moisture streaming from the gulf Thursday evening into Friday will make way for more potent rain chances Friday afternoon through Saturday. An approaching shortwave along with a stalled frontal boundary will bring heavy precipitation at times, leading to modest rainfall totals.

Here is a look at the setup for Friday:

NWS Surface Map Saturday Morning

NWS Surface Map Friday Morning

 

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing the rainfall forecast amounts of 1 – 1.5 inches across the area through Sunday.

5 Day Rainfall Forecast

5 Day Rainfall Forecast

A wet weekend is definitely on tap. With a lot of Christmas parades scheduled for this Saturday, make sure to pack an umbrella.

5 Day Outlook

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Light northeast wind.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 46. East wind 3 to 5 mph.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 43. Light and variable wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Friday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 59. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Periods of rain. Low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 55.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Rain, Rain, and More Rain

Southern Kentucky will be stuck in a rainy pattern over the next 7 days. Fortunately, the temperatures will trend more seasonable, giving us a break from the cold we have been seeing.

Today: Clouds will stick around for much of today. A few peaks of sunshine may squeeze through around lunch. Rain chances will be on the increase this evening ahead of a cold front that will move through overnight. High pressure to our east will help pull warm, moist gulf air toward the region today, allowing temperatures to warm in the mid 60’s. Overnight won’t cool off much. Expect temperatures to remain in the mid 40’s due to the southerly wind.

NWS Surface Map

NWS Surface Map

 

Tomorrow: 

Periods of moderate rain are possible tomorrow as the front pushes through. The rain will move in during the morning hours and spotty showers will continue into the evening. Up to a half inch of rain looks like a good bet for most areas through Tuesday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler during the day thanks to the cold front. Some flurries are even possible on the backside of the system overnight Monday. No accumulation is expected.

WPC Rainfall Forecast through Tuesday

WPC Rainfall Forecast through Tuesday

 

Tuesday:

The rain chances drop off a bit for Tuesday. Isolated showers may return during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will once again be in the mid to upper 40’s.

A warming trend will allow temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 50’s by the end of the week. However, rain chances will be present every day. Make that umbrella your friend this week!

5 Day Forecast:

Today: A 20 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 65. South wind 13 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Rain likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 47. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of drizzle. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of drizzle, then a slight chance of rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 42.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 56.

Thursday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

 

Warm-Up for the Weekend, Rain Showers Start Next Week

This is turning out to be a roller coaster week for our weather!  Temperatures were in the lower 60s at the start of this week, but then we did not even make it into the 40s for Thanksgiving after we accumulated a little snow Wednesday night into yesterday morning.  Now, we are warming up with temperatures back into the low to mid 40s today, and temperatures in the lower 60s expected this weekend!

tempchange

24 hour temperature change map valid for 6:00 PM CST on Friday, November 28th courtesy of Intellicast

As shown in the graphic above, there has been a strong warming trend over Central Plains region.  A similar trend is headed our way.  A strong southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures into the area tomorrow and especially Sunday.  However, there is another cold front not far behind.

sunday

Surface forecast map valid for 6:00 AM CST on Sunday, November 30th courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center

Some rain showers will form out ahead of the cold front and bring us a chance for isolated showers beginning tomorrow night.  The cold front shown in the graphic above will move through the area Sunday night into Monday.  So, the best chance for rain as well as the start of another cool down will be on Monday.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 35°, and winds out of the south at around 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Mostly cloudy skies, highs near 56°, and winds out of the south at around 8-15 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Mostly cloudy skies, a 20% chance of isolated showers, lows near 54°, and winds out of the south at around 10-15 mph.

Sunday:  Cloudy skies, a 30% chance of isolated showers, highs near 64°, and winds out of the south at around 10-15 mph.

Sunday Night:  Cloudy skies, a 40% chance of scattered showers, lows near 48°, and winds out of the SSW at around 8-10 mph.

Monday:  Cloudy skies, a 60% chance of scattered showers, highs near 52°, and winds out of the WNW at around 8-10 mph.