Warm Weather Trend Continues

Its a story that never seems to end,

But warm weather is still in the trend.

Maybe someday that cool air will come down,

And make a smile, from a persistent frown.

  –  Alex Sizemore

Regardless of my poor poetry skills, warmer weather is in the forecast this upcoming week. Currently, high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s for the entire work week and into the weekend. However, this time of year favors larger diurnal temperature ranges (if clear skies). So despite the somewhat warm weather in the hi-temp department, things cool off quickly in the evenings and over night hours with temps in the upper 40s and  50s, for the most part.

Evidence of the warmer weather over most of the country can be seen in our upper-air pattern. Below is GFS model guidance showing the Ohio Valley just downstream of a ridge of high pressure, which has an axis just to our west. Height anomalies also suggest this as well as heights are greater in magnitude for this time of year across most of the country.

GFS 500 hPa winds, heights, and anomaly - Pivotal

GFS 500 hPa winds, heights, and anomaly – Pivotal

In addition to being warm, it has also been dry for our area. A seemingly drenched summer took little time to turn into a relatively dry autumn for much of the state. With little precipitation over the past few weeks, we have now fallen into abnormally dry conditions.

Latest drought conditions for KY - Courtesy US Drought Monitor

Latest drought conditions for KY – Courtesy US Drought Monitor

Our next chance for rainfall should come in the overnight hours between Wednesday night and Thursday morning as an area of low pressure passes to our north and drapes an associated cold front across our area. Below are graphics from the latest NAM helping ti illustrate this system:

NAM guidance showing MSLP, 10 m winds, 2 m temps as well as accumulated QPF valid for 12 Z Thursday morning - Pivotal

NAM guidance showing MSLP, 10 m winds, 2 m temps as well as accumulated QPF valid for 12 Z Thursday morning – Pivotal

Its a long shot for any decent accumulation, but any water on the ground will be beneficial. generally speaking, the dry conditions will continue for the next several days across much of the Ohio Valley region.

For now, we will have to deal with our inactive weather pattern and enjoy the pleasant temperatures. With fall foliage on the rise, the boring weather is also very cooperative for getting outdoors and enjoying it!

Have a good week!

–  Alex Sizemore

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Cool Weekend

Hello everyone! As the weekend arrives the temperatures drop mainly due to the cold front that just past through the Mid-South region providing rain to the area. Expect the same cool and clear weather due to the high pressure that lies in Mid-West region of the United States. Currently there is a trough situated right over the middle of Kentucky followed by a pronounced ridge that is expected to remain present over much of the United States through most of next week.

WPC National Forecast Map for October 22, 2016

WPC National Forecast Map for October 22, 2016

The cold front that recently passed through the Mid-South brought rain to most of the region. Results of the thunder storms that passed through Bowling Green brought 0.27 inches of rain from Wednesday afternoon (5:35pm CDT) to Thursday afternoon (5:35pm CDT), according to kymesonet.org, which was slightly more than my foretasted range on Wednesday afternoon.

Weekend Outlook for Bowling Green:

Tonight: Expect partly clear skies with a low temperature of 40 degrees and a dew point temperature of 38 degrees. Slight wind out of the northwest around 5mph  Potential frost early in the morning before dawn.

Saturday: Sunny and clear with high temperature reaching 60 degrees and a slight wind out of the northwest around 5 mph.

Saturday Night (Game night): Clear and cool with temperatures around 42 degrees, slight northwest wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Sunny and clear again with high temperature reaching 73 degrees with winds at 5 mph coming from the south in the morning before turning southwest through out the rest of the day.

Sunday Night: Clear and cool again with temperatures around 50 degrees. Slight wind out of the south gradually changing to an easterly wind overnight into Monday morning.

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Cooler Temperatures and Rain Chances Inbound

Hello all! As the temperature continues to rise to above 80 today for most of Kentucky, cooler temperatures are expected for the remainder of the week. A cold front lies along the Ohio River slowly moving south of the river ahead of the deepening upper level trough that approaches. For today the higher chances of thunderstorms lie in southern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas. Rain chances are not very high today, expect high rain chances tomorrow.

WPC National Forecast Map 10/19/16

WPC National Forecast Map 10/19/16

The day 2 convection outlook gives a better chance of thunderstorms than the day 1 of outlook , with the day 2 giving Bowling Green a marginal risk of severe storms along with most of the state.

SPC Day 2 Convection Outlook for 10/20/16

SPC Day 2 Convection Outlook for 10/20/16

Along the boundary front lies an mass of unstable air, this air mass will slowly move across the Bowling Green are tonight through most of the day tomorrow. There are some marginally high levels of mid level and surface level CAPE (energy for severe storms to form) near Bowling Green yet they do not last long enough to give a chance of severe thunderstorms to appear near Bowling Green the higher levels of CAPE pass north of Bowling Green along the Ohio River tonight shortly after midnight and just south and east of Bowling Green near Interstate 65 after midday Thursday. The eastern side of the I-65 corridor can expect rain for rest of the afternoon Thursday and through overnight ours into early Friday morning.

Simulated Composite RADAR Forecast of the 12Z NAM for 10/191 through 10/21/16, from College of DuPage's Numerical Models page.

Simulated Composite RADAR Forecast of the 12Z NAM for 10/191 through 10/21/16, from College of DuPage’s Numerical Models page.

As the surface low moves north east throughout tonight, the northern part of Kentucky can expect a bit of relief from showers. However as the cold front moves through the state the unstable air mass along the front coupled with the decent CAPE values can provide the marginal chances of severe storms, that the SPC predicted, where the front and CAPE values overlap. When Friday morning comes, expect the cold front to move out of Kentucky along with it the rain.

COD NAM Forecast SurfaceTemperature showing passing of Cold Front near Bowling Green at roughly 1pm 10/20/16

COD 12Z NAM Forecast of Surface Temperature showing passing of Cold Front near Bowling Green at roughly 1pm 10/20/16


Today: Mostly sunny with high temperatures reaching around 86 degrees Fahrenheit, and a south south west wind around 5 to 10 mph can be expected.

Tonight: Slightly cloudy with low temperatures around 64 degrees winds with a slight southerly wind less than 5 mph. Rain chances pick up increase after midnight around 20%.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain chances increasing to 70% after 6 am. Expected rain fall totals range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch by the end of the day Thursday. High temperatures expected near 75 degrees.

Thursday Night: Cloudy and rain chances of 50%. Low temperatures expected near 50 degrees.

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Warm Start to the Week; Cold Front Approaching with Rain Chances

Evening all, the middle of October has arrived and it sure has been a warm start to the week! High temperatures across Kentucky have reached into the upper 80s today and will continue to do so through Wednesday and potentially Thursday for some parts of the state.

WPC Forecast Map for 00Z Tuesday (Monday evening local time)

WPC Forecast Map for Z Tuesday (Monday evening local time)

As the high pressure that has been lingering over the south eastern part of the United States continues to stall along East coast keeping the warmer temperatures across the southern part of the United States, a cold front located in the central plains, where a center of low pressure currently lies. This cold front will move across the plains and mid-west regions into Kentucky over the next two days, bringing rain showers and cooler high temperatures into our region by Wednesday night.

NCEP/NWS/NOAA GFS 300 millibar heights for 00Z Tuesday

NCEP/NWS/NOAA GFS 300 millibar heights for 00Z Tuesday

Currently a ridge located along the east coast and a meridional (horizontal flowing) upper level jet moves most of the United States thus providing no change in the warm temperatures for Kentucky. However, over the next couple of days a trough will increase in depth while moving east towards Kentucky which will bring the chances of rain to the area.

So Looking Ahead:

Tonight: Clear with temperature reaching a low of around 66 degrees Fahrenheit with around 5 to 10 mph winds from the south.

Tuesday: Sunny and clear with a high around 89 degrees and winds from the south west around 5 to 10 mph. Wind gusts of around 20 mph are possible.

Tuesday night: Clear with temperatures reaching a low of around 63 degrees and winds from the south west around 5 to 15 mph.

Look for Wednesday to bring a clearer forecast on when to expect some rain chances.

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Warm Weekend Ahead


Forecast Map for 10/15/16

Forecast Map for 10/15/16   

It has been an gloomy end to what was a warmer than usual week. Rain moved into Bowling Green in the early hours of Thursday morning, making Thursday considerably colder than Wednesday and we are still feeling the effects of that cold front still with cooler temperatures

We are currently sitting in high pressure with temperatures that we are used to seeing for Fall. As this high pressure persists its going to warm up this weekend, assisted with warm, moist winds from the south. Saturday rain and thunderstorms are still possible for the eastern parts of Kentucky.

Your forecast:

Friday: Cooler for now with temperatures possibly reaching the mid 70s. That is, if the sun burns off the persistent overcast we have. High of 74. Tonight will be a bit warmer at 59.

Tomorrow: Chance of rain is there but it will be much warmer. High of 81 with a slim chance of rain. Low of 60.

Sunday: Sunday we continue the warming trend with a high of 83. Low of 64.

Thanks for reading. I will see you in early November!


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Cooler Temperatures On Their Way

WPC 10-12-16 Forecast Map

WPC 10-12-16 Forecast Map

With a low pressure system just north of Texas that is driving a cold front into our region Wednesday evening into Thursday, we can expect chances of rain and thunderstorms.

The polar jet is starting to creep into the far northern parts of the country with the subtropical jet still over the southern part. This is going to create interesting weather, similar to what we saw in the spring when this same event occurred, just in reverse.

The surface low will continue moving southeast while pulling the cold front through Kentucky. This is what will bring rain. The aftermath will feature cooler temperatures as high pressure sets in. The cooler temperatures are not expected to stay very long.

Tonight: A bit warmer than this morning, 56 degrees. Partly cloudy with rain chances into the early morning hours.

Tomorrow: 20% chance of rain, primarily in the morning with a high of 67. Cooler temperatures as that cold front passes through.

I will be back Friday to discuss what happened and your weekend forecast.

Thanks for reading!

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Hurricane Matthew Aftermath and Bowling Green Forecast

Before I start my forecast for Bowling Green, KY I want to talk a bit on Hurricane Matthew. I know that the other blog posters have talked to great detail on Hurricane so I won’t go too in depth.

Hurricane Matthew was a devastating hurricane that reached Category 5 strength. This means the wind reached at least 157 mph sustained, categorized by the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This hurricane has sadly caused the deaths of over a thousand people along thousands of others being left  without food, water, or shelter. The most devastation has been seen in Haiti, who obtained the bulk of the deaths and damage to homes. The Hurricane was at it’s strongest through the Carribbean Sea. My thoughts are with the people most effected.

WPC Map 10/10/16

Bowling Green has been and is currently seated in a center of high pressure. Keeping skies clear and temperatures warm. The past week has been unseasonably warm for October. Not until Sunday did the temperatures cool to what is typically expected.

With showers and thunderstorms to our west Bowling Green is going to see more beautiful weather over the next few days. Thursday a low pressure system is expected to pass through and may bring rain chances, I’ll talk more on that Wednesday.

As for my forecast

Today and Tonight: More sunny skies with a high of 74 degrees. Tonight will cool down, much like this morning. Partly cloudy with a low of 50 degrees.

Tomorrow:Sunny skies once more, with a high of 76. Wind from our southwest will provide warmer temperatures. Tomorrow’s low is again 50 degrees. So tomorrow morning for your commute, I would recommend a light jacket.

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Records Set by Hurricane Matthew

As of today, Hurricane Matthew continues to move along the east coast. It has weakened significantly since its brief peak as category 5 on Sept 30th, and as of today sits as a category 2 hurricane. However, over the past few days Hurricane Matthew was able to break some notable hurricane records.

Category 5 Records
Hurricane Matthew was declared a category 5 hurricane on September 30th, breaking two records as a category 5 before weakening back down to a category 4 and making landfall in Haiti:

  • Matthew became the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in 9 years, with the last being Hurricane Felix in 1995.
  • Matthew became the southernmost category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, beating out Hurricane Ivan, the previous record holder.

Longest-Lived Records

  • Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived Category 4-5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean with 84+ hours. The last record holder was Hurricane Ivan in 2004 with 66 hours.
  • Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived Category 4-5 hurricane for the entire month of October.
  • Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived major hurricane(category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic Basin that formed after September 25th, with six and a half days.

Landfall in Haiti Record

  • Hurricane Matthew made landfall in Haiti at 6 am CDT, which was the first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the country in 52 years.

Major Hurricane Landfall Drought Continues
The current major hurricane drought record goes unbroken after Matthew. A category 3 or higher hurricane, known as a major hurricane, has not made landfall in the United States since 2005. While the US has seen many notable hurricanes since, such as Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Ike, none have been over a category 3 while making landfall. There was a chance Hurricane Matthew was about to break this 10 year major hurricane drought.  However, Matthew never made landfall along Florida while it was a category 3 or higher. Instead, the storm went parallel along the Florida shoreline.  With the storm now at a category 2 and continuing to weaken, any landfall from here on out won’t be considered a major hurricane landfall. Thus, the record remains unbroken, and the major hurricane landfall drought continues.

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Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole

After pushing over Haiti and along the eastern coast of Florida, Hurricane Matthew continues to push up the east coast as it weakens. 214531w5_nl_sm

As it can be seen above, the NHC is expecting Hurricane Matthew to weaken into a tropical storm by Sunday 2pm, and affect areas no further north than North Carolina. By Sunday, the storm is expected to turn back out into the Atlantic and head south toward the Bahamas as a tropical storm.

An satellite view of Matthew taken from GOES-East on Oct 7th, 1:30 pm CDT: 

This satellite imagery not only shows the impressive scale of Hurricane Matthew, but also shows Tropical Storm Nicole developing in the Atlantic off to the southeast of Hurricane Matthew. According to the NHC, Nicole is not expected to head any further west and instead head north toward Bermuda.

The forecast for Tropical Storm Nicole from the NHC:

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Cooler Weekend Ahead

The warm trend of this past week will be coming to an end with a cold front pushing through the Bowling Green area, making for a cooler weekend and a cooler start to next week. Interestingly, this fairly strong cold front moving into the area will not be bringing any precipitation along with it. Thus, the skies will remain clear or mostly clear throughout the weekend and even into early next week. After the cold front pushes through the area, we will be met with a large region of high pressure that will keep the skies clear and the temperature stable throughout the weekend.


Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind 3 to 8 mph. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunny, with a high near 70. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Light northeast wind.

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