WKU Meteorology

Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

WKU Meteorology - Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

A Rainy Start to the Weekend

Real time Bowling Green Radar:

Rain is on the way and it will be heavy at times. A rumble of thunder is even possible in some of the heavier downpours. Make sure and pack an umbrella as you head out the door.

The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 1 – 2 inches of rain for the area.

WPC 2 Day Rainfall Forecast

WPC 2 Day Rainfall Forecast

We will reside in the warm sector of a stationary front today, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 60’s! Numerous downpours will also be a result and will lead to the heavy rainfall totals across the area.

NWS Surface Map for Today

NWS Surface Map for Today

The strongest surge of precipitation will arrive later this afternoon into the evening hours. The NAM simulated reflectivity shows a heavy swath of rain covering the entire area. This will persist into the overnight hours.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity at 6pm Tonight

NAM Simulated Reflectivity at 6pm Tonight

 

Saturday:

The heaviest rain will move out of the region by early morning with only a few scattered showers left behind. Still, pack an umbrella when heading out to the local Christmas parades. Temperatures will plummet throughout the day tomorrow! It will most definitely feel chilly by the afternoon.

Sunday: 

We will be back to slightly cooler than normal temperatures across the area Sunday. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 40’s. However, the sun will make a return for part of the day.

5 Day Outlook:

Today: Periods of rain. High near 64. South wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Low around 59. South wind 9 to 11 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 60. West wind 8 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Northeast wind around 9 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 51.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

The Dreary Weather Continues

We will see a break in the rain today, however persistent clouds will limit the sunshine. The visible satellite shows thick cloud cover stretching back to the west. This will help keep us cooler today with high temperatures topping out in the mid 40’s across the region. A break in the clouds is possible by late afternoon.

satellite image

Aviation Weather Visible Satellite

 

Thursday:

Rain chances enter back into the picture tomorrow. A deep moisture field streaming from the gulf will allow decent rain chances during the afternoon and evening. Rain totals should be rather light.

NAM 700mb Relative Humidity

NAM 700mb Relative Humidity

 

Friday: 

The abundant moisture streaming from the gulf Thursday evening into Friday will make way for more potent rain chances Friday afternoon through Saturday. An approaching shortwave along with a stalled frontal boundary will bring heavy precipitation at times, leading to modest rainfall totals.

Here is a look at the setup for Friday:

NWS Surface Map Saturday Morning

NWS Surface Map Friday Morning

 

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing the rainfall forecast amounts of 1 – 1.5 inches across the area through Sunday.

5 Day Rainfall Forecast

5 Day Rainfall Forecast

A wet weekend is definitely on tap. With a lot of Christmas parades scheduled for this Saturday, make sure to pack an umbrella.

5 Day Outlook

Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Light northeast wind.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 46. East wind 3 to 5 mph.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 43. Light and variable wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Friday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 59. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Periods of rain. Low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 55.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Rain, Rain, and More Rain

Southern Kentucky will be stuck in a rainy pattern over the next 7 days. Fortunately, the temperatures will trend more seasonable, giving us a break from the cold we have been seeing.

Today: Clouds will stick around for much of today. A few peaks of sunshine may squeeze through around lunch. Rain chances will be on the increase this evening ahead of a cold front that will move through overnight. High pressure to our east will help pull warm, moist gulf air toward the region today, allowing temperatures to warm in the mid 60’s. Overnight won’t cool off much. Expect temperatures to remain in the mid 40’s due to the southerly wind.

NWS Surface Map

NWS Surface Map

 

Tomorrow: 

Periods of moderate rain are possible tomorrow as the front pushes through. The rain will move in during the morning hours and spotty showers will continue into the evening. Up to a half inch of rain looks like a good bet for most areas through Tuesday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler during the day thanks to the cold front. Some flurries are even possible on the backside of the system overnight Monday. No accumulation is expected.

WPC Rainfall Forecast through Tuesday

WPC Rainfall Forecast through Tuesday

 

Tuesday:

The rain chances drop off a bit for Tuesday. Isolated showers may return during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will once again be in the mid to upper 40’s.

A warming trend will allow temperatures to warm into the mid and upper 50’s by the end of the week. However, rain chances will be present every day. Make that umbrella your friend this week!

5 Day Forecast:

Today: A 20 percent chance of rain after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 65. South wind 13 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Rain likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 47. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of drizzle. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A slight chance of drizzle, then a slight chance of rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 42.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 56.

Thursday Night: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

 

Warm-Up for the Weekend, Rain Showers Start Next Week

This is turning out to be a roller coaster week for our weather!  Temperatures were in the lower 60s at the start of this week, but then we did not even make it into the 40s for Thanksgiving after we accumulated a little snow Wednesday night into yesterday morning.  Now, we are warming up with temperatures back into the low to mid 40s today, and temperatures in the lower 60s expected this weekend!

tempchange

24 hour temperature change map valid for 6:00 PM CST on Friday, November 28th courtesy of Intellicast

As shown in the graphic above, there has been a strong warming trend over Central Plains region.  A similar trend is headed our way.  A strong southerly flow will bring warmer temperatures into the area tomorrow and especially Sunday.  However, there is another cold front not far behind.

sunday

Surface forecast map valid for 6:00 AM CST on Sunday, November 30th courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center

Some rain showers will form out ahead of the cold front and bring us a chance for isolated showers beginning tomorrow night.  The cold front shown in the graphic above will move through the area Sunday night into Monday.  So, the best chance for rain as well as the start of another cool down will be on Monday.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 35°, and winds out of the south at around 6-8 mph.

Tomorrow:  Mostly cloudy skies, highs near 56°, and winds out of the south at around 8-15 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Mostly cloudy skies, a 20% chance of isolated showers, lows near 54°, and winds out of the south at around 10-15 mph.

Sunday:  Cloudy skies, a 30% chance of isolated showers, highs near 64°, and winds out of the south at around 10-15 mph.

Sunday Night:  Cloudy skies, a 40% chance of scattered showers, lows near 48°, and winds out of the SSW at around 8-10 mph.

Monday:  Cloudy skies, a 60% chance of scattered showers, highs near 52°, and winds out of the WNW at around 8-10 mph.

Rain/Snow Mix Tonight, Cold and Dry Tomorrow

Today was a chilly but clear day for the many travelers out there.  However, we have a low pressure system moving through the region this evening that will bring us some light rain showers, and even some snow overnight.  As these showers move through, the cold air behind them will allow for a transition into snow.

nws2

Snow forecast graphic courtesy of NWS Louisville

This will be a light and rather wet snow/rain mix until the very early morning hours, and the ground will still be above freezing.  So, we are not expecting much accumulation.  As shown in the graphic above, most places will only see a dusting, but other places may see up to an inch.  The greatest accumulations are expected on grassy or elevated surfaces.  However, in general, this system is not expected to have a large impact.

We may still see some lingering flurries in the morning, but the rest of Thanksgiving Day will be dry and partly sunny.  Unfortunately, it will also be rather chilly.  As shown in the graphic below, temperatures will struggle just to make it to 40°.  Thankfully, after tomorrow, we will see a bit of a warming trend.

maxT

High temperature forecast map valid for Thanksgiving Day courtesy of NWS Louisville

Looking ahead, we can expect highs in the mid 40s for anyone out and about on Black Friday.  Saturday’s highs are expected to make it into the mid 50s, and by Sunday we could see temperatures up into the mid 60s.  We should also stay dry until Saturday night and Sunday when our next frontal system will move through.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Cloudy skies, 70% chance of rain/snow mix, lows near 32°, and winds out of the northwest at around 3-6 mph.

Thanksgiving:  Partly sunny, slight chance of AM snow flurries, highs near 40°, and winds out of the northwest at around 5-8 mph.

Thanksgiving Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 25°, and calm winds.

Friday:  Mostly sunny skies, highs near 46°, and winds out of the SSE at around 5-10 mph.

 

Showers Leaving, Cold Returning

This has been a rather cold and dry November thus far, but we picked up some rain and warmer temperatures this weekend!  High temperatures broke into the lower 60s in many places across the area both yesterday and today.  Our high temperatures for this time of year would normally be right around 60°. However, prior to this weekend, we experienced many days that did not even make it into the 50s, and it looks as if those colder temperatures are back in the forecast once again.

As shown in the graphic below, the cold front currently situated to our west is going to move through our region early tomorrow morning.  The showers and thunderstorms associated with this cold front and low pressure system are going to be affecting us throughout the night and into tomorrow morning.  Although this front is expected to produce strong winds tonight and tomorrow, no other severe threat is expected.  As the front makes its way out of the area during the day tomorrow it is going to take those showers, storms, and gusty winds with it, but it will also be ushering in some colder temperatures behind it.

12Z

Surface forecast map valid for 12Z (6:00 AM CST) courtesy of the NWS Weather Prediction Center

Tonight’s low temperatures will not be far from tomorrow’s highs.  We are expected to reach our high temperature earlier in the day, then temperatures will drop throughout the afternoon after the passage of the cold front.  Although high pressure will begin to build in after the passage of this system and bring us some clearer skies, we may not see temperatures any warmer than the upper 40s for quite a while.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Cloudy skies, a 90% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, lows near 54°, and winds out of the south at around 12-18 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tomorrow:  Mostly cloudy skies, a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, highs near 56° with temperatures dropping throughout the day, and winds out of the southwest at around 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 32°, and winds out of the southwest at around 5-10 mph.

Tuesday:  Sunny skies, highs near 46°, and winds out of the west at around 5-8 mph.

Tuesday Night:  Mostly clear skies, lows near 26°, and light and variable winds.

Wednesday:  Mostly sunny skies, highs near 45°, and winds out of the south at around 5-8 mph.

 

Weekend Forecast, plus a sneak peek at Thanksgiving weather

Temperatures in Bowling Green are slowly on the rise today through Sunday. A slow-moving upper-level trough is making its way across the country and the associated surface low pressure system and cold front will impact the Bowling Green area Sunday. We are currently to the east of the surface low and will be experiencing southerly winds, resulting in a brief warm-up over the next couple days. The low pressure system and cold front is expected to arrive around mid-afternoon on Sunday. The NAM 18z Simulated Reflectivity for Sunday afternoon shows a large area of thunderstorms and heavy rain moving into Kentucky. Make sure to stay updated with this incoming system, as some of these storms could be severe.heavy rain and storms

This system will drop a lot of rain before it moves out of the region. Precipitation accumulations could be around an inch or more in some places. Temperatures will gradually drop throughout the week as the upper-level trough moves eastward and cold, arctic air is brought in to our area. With that being said, preliminary forecasts for Thanksgiving Day are looking like it will be extremely cold, with daytime highs in the mid 20s and 30s. The GFS 2m Temperature for Thanksgiving Day shows cold, arctic air over much of the eastern U.S.

thanksgiving

Have a great weekend!

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast:

  • Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph after midnight.
  • Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
  • Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. South wind around 8 mph.
  • Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 64. Southeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
  • Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
  • Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.
  • Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

 

 

 

End of the week forecast

Bowling Green is currently 53 degrees and breezy, with a southerly wind gusting up to 25-30 mph in some areas. Temperatures are definitely warmer than what was forecasted for today due to strong warm air advection and a warm front that passed through earlier today. 18z surface analysis shows the system responsible for this brief warm-up and a cold front that is on its way. This cold front will cool things down, but not nearly as much as the system earlier this week. loopimagesfcwbg

For the remainder of the week a developing high pressure system will continue moving across the country, affecting our area. While we are on the east side of this system, we will continue to experience cold, dry temperatures; however, as the high pressure moves to our east, we will start to warm up significantly. Forecasted temperatures for Saturday and Sunday are in the mid 50s and 60s. Southerly winds will bring moist, Gulf air into most of the southeast and we will have a chance for thunderstorms later in the weekend.

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast:

  • Tonight: Low around 25.
  • Thursday: High near 43.
  • Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Light and variable wind.
  • Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning.
  • Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
  • Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.
  • Saturday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Sunday: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 56. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  • Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

 

Rain, snow, and record lows

Currently Bowling Green is 39 degrees and drizzly. An upper-level trough is positioned over the central U.S. and the corresponding cold front an surface low is pushing through the east overnight into tomorrow morning. The cold front should pass through Bowling Green in the next few hours. A surface low  to our south is pumping Gulf moisture into Kentucky and surrounding states, which explains all the precipitation we have been seeing. The NWS Surface Analysis at 21Z is shown below.

usfntsfcwbg

The big question with this precipitation is what it will be once it hits the ground. Northern Kentucky is already seeing frozen precip and is at risk for 2-3 inches of accumulating snow. Bowling Green, however, will remain too warm for any snow until early Monday morning when most of the rain has moved out of the area. We are expected to see some accumulating snow, but likely no more than an inch. Timing is key with this system and Bowling Green could see more or less than an inch depending on the arrival of the cold front and the remaining precipitation. The latest NWS snowfall predictions are shown below.

snow

Temperatures will start to cool rapidly once this cold front passes and high pressure will start to move into the region tomorrow. We could see some record low temperatures tomorrow night and wind chills will make the air temperature feel like it is in the single digits in some areas. The NAM 2m temperature map for 6:00 am Tuesday morning shows extremely cold temperatures affecting a good portion of the U.S.

namUS_sfc_temp_042

Make sure you are prepared for the coming cold weather. As for the rest of the week, temperatures will remain in the mid 30s – 40s with another possibility for snow toward the end of the week. Check back with us for more information about this on Wednesday!

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast (NWS):

  • Tonight: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet before 2am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 2am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 31. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.
  • Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 24 by 5pm. West wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
  • Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as 2. West wind 11 to 14 mph.
  • Tuesday: A chance of flurries. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as -1. West wind 11 to 14 mph.
  • Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. South wind around 9 mph.
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
  • Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.
  • Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
  • Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.
  • Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

 

 

Old Man Winter

Colder temperatures have entered our area and it looks like they will stick around for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

This map shows the polar high pressure creeping into our area and it will be sticking around for the next few days bringing temperatures down into the 30s and even the 20s at night. There is no sign of rain/snow for the next few days so the only down fall of the days to come will be the temperature.

Thursday:

High- 36

Low- 22

Wind- NW 10-15mph

NOTE: Winds will make it feel much cooler than what the actual temperature will be. Winds can make it feel up to 10 degrees cooler. Please take that into account when making any plans that involve being outside for long periods of time.

Stay warm until next time!