WKU Meteorology

Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

WKU Meteorology - Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

Sunshine and Blue Skies!

Happy Easter to all! Today will be part two of a beautiful weather weekend. The sunshine will persist throughout the day and the temperature will top out around 81 degrees this afternoon. Get outside and play some golf, head to a park, or fire up the grill, but don’t forget that sunscreen! imagesSome high clouds may try and move in from the west later this afternoon. Regardless, the sun will remain the dominant object in the sky.

A few showers will move into the area late Monday and into Tuesday. The high temperature tomorrow is dependent on how fast the clouds begin streaming in. Temperatures will likely approach the upper 70s to low 80s again tomorrow.  It won’t be an all day rain event, but some thunderstorms are a definite possibility. Another round of showers looks to move in by Friday. No severe weather is expected with any of these rounds of storms. However, the quiet severe weather pattern has started to amp up a bit in the Midwest. We will have to watch and see if that signals a more active pattern for our area over the coming weeks.

Here is the 5 day precipitation outlook:

p120iNot a whole lot of rain expected this week with any of the rounds of thunderstorms. Up to an inch is possible in Bowling Green. Slightly higher amounts may be possible under a heavy thunderstorm.

Overall, we can expect a lovely week with only a few minor rain chances. Get out and enjoy the weather. Before you know it, summer will be here and it will be too hot to play outside!

Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 72. West wind 6 to 13 mph becoming north in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 66.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

Excellent Easter Weekend

Discussion: After an early week chill, temperatures have warmed back to what is more typical for this time of year. We topped out in the upper 60s yesterday and it appears we should be in the 70s for the next several days.

Overall we are in a fairly quite spell. We have a very weak front in the region today which will for the most part go unnoticed. This surface feature will combine with a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico to bring in a few clouds today. Otherwise we’ll see sunny skies until Monday when the next system approaches.

Lows the next couple nights will be cool in the mid to upper 40s which is actually right around average for this time of year.

The string of tranquil weather days are thanks to an area of high pressure which will dominate our weather conditions through Monday. This should make for an excellent Easter weekend with highs in the 70s under sunny skies. This should make for some great egg hunts.

98fwbgus

WPC surface analysis for Easter Sunday puts south-central Kentucky in between two areas of high pressure which should make for a sunny day in the 70s.

The only other weather story worth mentioning will be an approaching system by Monday. We’ll see a broad area of low pressure in association with an upper level disturbance which should kick off a few showers/maybe a thunderstorm Monday afternoon into Monday night. The system is still too far out to mention rain totals, but it doesn’t look to be a wash out of any sort.

Come Tuesday, that disturbance will push east and early indications show that much of next week again will be nice with temperatures in the 70s with sunny skies.

Daily Forecasts:

Today: Partly sunny with a high near 70. Generally light winds.

Tonight: Clear and cool with a low near 47. Winds will be light to calm.

Saturday: Sunny with a high around 75. Easterly winds from 5-12 mph.

Saturday Night: Again, clear and cool yet again with a low around 47. Winds will be light to calm.

Easter Sunday: Sunny skies and warm with a high around 78. Light southerly winds generally less than 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy skies with a low near 57. South to southwest winds generally less than 10 mph.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High in the mid 70s.

Winter’s Last Laugh (Hopefully)

Forecast Discussion: We’ve had a few showers move through this morning in advance of a cold front. Rainfall was generally less than 0.10″ east of I-65, while those west of I-65 picked up anywhere from 0.50″ to 1″.

For now the showers have moved out, however, the cold front is still off to our west, currently draped from southeast Indiana to roughly Memphis, TN and through parts of western Kentucky. As the front pushes through this afternoon, more scattered showers will develop along the front. No worries of severe weather today, but a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.

A very strong upper-level piece of energy will move into our region this evening which will enhance our rain chances along and even behind the front. Thus, despite the cold frontal passage this afternoon, rain chances will continue overnight. Showers will likely even become quite widespread across the area. We could see 0.25″ – 0.75+” of additional rainfall from this evening into Tuesday morning.

1ref_t6sfc_f12

RAP simulated reflectivity valid for 9pm Monday.

A sharp temperature decline will also be noticed behind the front. Temperatures will fall into the 50s by this evening. Overnight, temperatures will fall through the 40s before bottoming out in the mid 30s. Winds will be quite breezy along and behind the front as well. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30+ mph are possible.

As a result of colder temperatures and lingering moisture, there could even be a few flakes flying come Tuesday morning as the precipitation ends. A harsh stubborn winter just won’t give in.

Everything calms down as we move into the midweek time frame. High pressure will works in way in by Tuesday afternoon/night which will allow skies to clear. It will also aid in bringing in cold temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the 40s and by Wednesday morning, lows are expected to drop into the upper 20s. A hard freeze is likely (A Freeze Watch as already been issued for Tues Night/Wed morning), thus precautions should be taken with any sensitive outdoor vegetation.

aprilfreezhigh_nam

Surface analysis of NAM model valid for 4am Wednesday.

Southerly winds will return for Wednesday and Thursday with the “return flow” around the high pressure. This along with mostly sunny to sunny skies will allow temperatures to moderate once again. We won’t see 80s again, but at least a return to 60s is expected. The next rain-maker is poised to move in on Friday.

Daily Forecasts:

This Afternoon: Mostly Cloudy with a 50% chance of scattered showers. High near 70. Breezy with southerly winds from 10-20 mph through early afternoon becoming northwesterly at 10-20 mph this evening.

Tonight: 80% chance of rain; a few snow flakes could mix in toward morning. Additional rainfall totals will range from 0.25″ to 0.75″ by Tues morning. Windy and turning colder with temperatures falling through 40s, bottoming out near a low of 35. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30+ mph possible.

Tuesday: Cold with a high only around 48. Clouds and a 30% chance of rain/snow showers will start the day. Clouds will decrease throughout the day and skies will become mostly sunny by the afternoon. Still breezy with north winds at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Freeze Watch. Cold with a low near 28. Skies will be clear and winds will become calm. A hard freeze is likely thus precautions should be taken to protect and outdoor sensitive vegetation.

Wednesday: AM Freeze Watch. After a cold start, temperatures will warm to around 60 under mostly sunny skies. Southeast to south winds at 5-12 mph are expected.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies and again quite chilly with a low around 34. Generally light winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Beautiful, Breezy Day

What a beautiful and sunny day for our area! The Kentucky Mesonet has Bowling Green currently sitting at 73 degrees and the sunny skies have helped the temperature get there. Mostly clear skies will continue through today until the cold front approaching from the northwest gets closer. As the front approaches it will start to stall and slowly sink southward through tomorrow. Ahead of this front expect to see scattered showers with the chance of a few isolated thunderstorms. Although severe weather is not expected due to the lack of instability. Expected rainfall amounts are estimated to stay below an quarter of an inch for the next two days.QPF

Showers will taper off into Friday night leading into a nice weekend for us all, although a few showers Saturday can’t be ruled out. Saturday and Sunday for the most part will be days full of partly cloud skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70′s. However the sunshine will be taken over by a new developing low pressure system that is developing in the OK/TX panhandles. Sunday night showers will move back into the region.

 

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Sunny, with a high near 76. Windy, with a south wind 20-22 mph, gust could reach as high as 32.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind 8-15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High will near 71. Southwest wind 7-11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, low near 52. Chance of showers, mainly before 9pm at a 30% chance.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Light south wind will increase to 10-15 mph in the morning.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 59.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday: Cloudy, with a high near 67. Showers are likely with possibility of stray thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a  low around 37. Chance of showers. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Drizzle Drizzle

Looks as though today is going to continue to be a yucky day accompanied with the occasional drizzle. Clouds will continue to linger as the low-pressure system continues to track out of our area. A shortwave trough is tracking through the midwest behind this departing low and with that will come isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Some of the stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel but any other severe weather threats are minuscule. As the sunsets expect convection to diminish and the chance of precipitation tonight to diminish with it. High temperatures today will reach the upper 50′s to lower 60′s. As clouds clear tonight lows will fall to the lower 40′s to upper 30′s. Wednesday is looking to be a sunny but cool day with a high temperature in the lower 60′s. High pressure will begin to settle into the southeast. This high pressure will keep Wednesday and Thursday dry but winds will pick up Thursday into the night as a front approaches from the northwest. The front is expected to stall out over central Kentucky and with it we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning.

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a 60% chance of precipitation. West wind 6 to 9mph. High today will near 62.

Tonight: Chance of showers before 9pm but a gradual clearing of clouds expected after midnight. Low tonight will fall to around 38.

Wednesday: Sunny skies, with a high nearing 65 accompanied by a northwest wind at 5 to 8mph.

Wednesday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40. West wind around 5mph becoming south after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 73. South wind from 6 to 11mph increasing to 12 to 17mph by afternoon. Gust could reach 28mph.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low near 51. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

Saturday night: partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Severe Storms Possible the Next Few Days

After a fantastic start to the week, rain and storms are set to roll into the area. The remainder of the day will by no means be a washout, but keep an eye on the weather as a few storms may move into our area later today. While there is a slight risk for severe weather in our area this afternoon and evening, the main threat exists tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight hours. The severe threat should exit the region Friday morning.

Today’s severe threat:

Increasing convection this afternoon will pose a risk for several storms to move in later this afternoon into the evening hours. The main threat will remain to the west, but a few isolated storms may sweep across the area. However, confidence is still rather low as to how far east storms will be able to fire due to weak forcing in the area. If storms do fire early enough, strong low level shear, decent CAPE and moisture would support supercells with an isolated tornado risk. Regardless, rain and a few thunderstorms will roll through later this evening and overnight tonight.

Here is the severe outlook for today:

day1otlk_1630

The Storm Prediction Center has Bowling Green right on the edge of the 2% tornado probability and a 5% probability to the west. As you can see, the main threat remains to the west.

day1probotlk_1630_torn

The current CAPE and Bulk Shear across the area are sufficient to support storm development.

CAPE is currently approaching 1000 J/kg in Bowling Green

CAPE

The bulk shear is near 50 knots over Bowling Green.

eshr

The HRRR shows storms approaching the area late tonight. This is the simulated reflectivity at 10pm tonight.

hrrrFLT_sfc_radar_012

If storms are able to fire in our region, they do have the potential to become severe. The main threat with any storm this evening would be damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Again, the threat for severe weather this evening is relatively low, but it still needs to be watched closely.

Thursday into Friday storm chances:

Tomorrow evening’s storm chances look better. Rich moisture and higher CAPE along with the increasing low level jet will provide the ingredients for a line of storms tomorrow evening. To the west across Arkansas, Missouri, and western portions of Tennessee and Kentucky, there is a moderate risk for severe storms. This is the area where the tornado threat is highest. The map below from the SPC shows tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. The red is the moderate risk while the yellow is the slight risk.

day2otlk_1730

The moderate risk remains about 100 miles to the west of Bowling Green. Isolated supercells will develop across the western and central portions of the moderate risk area and later form a squall line that will impact our area. The main threat with the squall line will be damaging winds, hail, and an isolated embedded tornado.

Here are some severe storm parameters for tomorrow:

Both the NAM and GFS show roughly 1500 J/kg CAPE tomorrow around 6pm.

GFS CAPE

gfsFLT_con_mucape_036

NAM CAPE

 

namFLT_con_mucape_036

The NAM’s supercell composite is a composite of several severe storm parameters and shows the areas where supercell development is most favorable. You can see the greatest risk for supercells remains to the west. This is because a squall line will most likely be what impacts our region late Thursday into Friday. There is a slight chance for isolated storms to develop in our region late tomorrow afternoon, with the possiblity of becoming severe.

namFLT_con_scp_036

The Significant Tornado Composite is similar, but shows areas where tornado development is most favorable. The greatest threat is to the west, but an isolated tornado in our area is not out of question.

namFLT_con_stp_036

Here is a look at the simulated reflectivity from the NAM tomorrow around 6pm.

namSE_sfc_radar_036

Here is the NAM reflectivity Friday morning. It shows the squall line coming through between 5am and 6am Friday morning.

namSE_sfc_radar_048

Overall, a slight chance for severe weather exists in our area beginning tonight and again tomorrow afternoon and going through Friday morning. Storms tomorrow will likely move into the area later in the afternoon with the possibility of some being severe. The main threat will come from the squall line moving into the area late Thursday into early Friday morning. This line of storms will bring heavy rain, strong winds, possibly some large hail, and a chance for an isolated tornado. The squall line will most likely move through the area between 12am and 6am Friday morning.

Keep an eye on the weather as tomorrow progresses and make sure you have your weather radios out and ready to go before you go to bed Thursday night.

 

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Low around 60. South wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.

 

It’s Spring and it Feels Good

If you have stepped outside today you know just how nice the weather is! The warm weather moved in yesterday and will last throughout the week ahead. Temperatures in the 70′s look like a good bet through Friday. The weekend will bring a slight cool down, but no “polar vortex” as you heard a few times this winter.

With the warmer weather comes a chance for thunderstorms which we will experience for much of the week. There is a chance for an isolated shower tonight, but all rain will likely be out of the area by sunrise. Tuesday will remain mostly sunny, but by Wednesday, thunderstorm chances increase. Thursday and Friday will most likely be accompanied by thunderstorms. Some of the storms could even be severe later in the week.

We may see some pretty heavy rain at times this week, especially if you find yourself under a thunderstorm. A general 2-3 inches by the end of the weekend looks likely for most areas in south central Kentucky. If we do receive several inches of rain, minor flooding would be a possibility. However, with it being rather dry the past couple weeks, major flooding is not likely. Keep in mind, If several thunderstorms happen to pass over the same area, rain totals would be higher which may lead to isolated flooding.

5 day rain prediction from the WPC shows nearly 1.25 inches of rain for Bowling Green

day5rain

7 Day rain prediction from the WPC shows over 2 inches for Bowling Green

day7rain

Aside from the potential for heavy rain, storms look likely later in the week. Several waves of showers and storms will roll through the area starting Wednesday night. The round coming through during the Friday/Saturday time frame is worth keeping an eye on as it has the highest severe potential.

A shortwave trough will become more negatively tilted as it heads east. It will encounter relatively large CAPE values across portions of the Midwest, stretching as far east as the western tip of Kentucky.

The day 4 outlook shows the zone of highest probability for storms due to most favorable conditions.

day48prob

The conditions will become less favorable across south central Kentucky as the low level jet will most likely outrun the rich moisture axis and the CAPE will be lower to the east. However, severe potential still exists and needs to watched. A further analysis of our severe potential will be posted on Wednesday.

As for the remainder of the afternoon and tomorrow, get out and enjoy the weather if you can!

Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Isolated showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 6 to 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the evening.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 7 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 60.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Rain Tonight with Cool Down for the Weekend

Well, its finally warm again. Winter’s last hurrah (let’s all hope) certainly didn’t go unnoticed earlier in the week with scattered snow showers Monday Night into Tuesday morning. Moreover, it was very chilly as well. Highs on Tuesday struggled to break 40 and our low Wednesday morning came in at only 19. Only a stones throw away from the record of 14 set back in 1955. In fact a couple of nearby mesonet stations (both Allen & Logan Counties) dropped as low as 16.

snow_32514

Snow falls on the campus of WKU on Tuesday, March 25, 2014.

Out late season snowfall provided some interesting facts concerning the winter that was. All statistics courtesy of Dr. Gregory Goodrich.

  1. Snow on Tuesday (officially we received 0.3″) made for a few Our snow season went from November 25 (1.1”) to March 25 (0.3”) this year, which gives us a 120 day snow season (normal first/last dates are December 24 to February 24 or 62 days). This ranks as the 13th longest snow season since 1900 and is the longest snow season since 1994. The longest snow season was in 1914 with 152 days (first snow: 10/20; last snow: 3/21)!
  2. This snow season had the 2nd highest number of days with measurable (>0.1”) snowfall at 16 days. Tied with 1978 and 1996; 1895 ranks 1st with 18 days. So even though we didn’t get a lot of snow, we still had snow on a lot of days.

Moving on however… spring has sprung yet again. Temperatures warmed back into the 60s yesterday and we’ll be in the 60s again today. The weekend will coincide with a minor cool down before we move into a stretch of 70 degree weather next week.

Obviously, we have some active weather over the last 24 hours. Most noteworthy were the high winds Thursday evening. The peak gust in the area was reported at the BWG airport at 50 mph. At least some minor damage was reported when a tree limb fell onto a power line in BG. Moderate to heavy rainfall also fell with the airport picking up over 0.3″.

The system that brought this rain and wind is at least somewhat still with us today. While the main area of low pressure has pushed eastward, the dragging cold front remains over south-central Kentucky. This could lead to a few showers in the area today but the most of the rain will hold off until tonight, especially after midnight.

Tonight’s rainfall will come as an area of low pressure develops along the front in Texas and moves northeastward, passing just to our south. As a result scattered showers will again spread across the area. Rainfall totals will likely be more impressive than they were yesterday evening however. In general 0.50″-1″ of rain is expected and some locations could see locally more.

wpc_qpf

Weather Prediction Center’s forecast precipitation totals over the next 2 days.

Note that there could very well be a few rumbles of thunder as well, however nothing severe is expected in our area.

Scattered showers will continue right into Saturday morning as we receive moisture wrapping around the backside of the low pressure system. Being in this location, temperatures will also be cool, especially so with clouds and rain. While most of the rain should move out by noon, clouds will linger through much of the evening with clearing taking place overnight.

By Sunday, all the active weather will have pushed well to our east as it is replaced with an area of high pressure. This will lead to sunny skies on Sunday, however temperatures will remain just a tad on the cool side.

sun_surf

This surface model and analysis is valid 7pm Sunday. Note High pressure in control Sunday as well as the warmer temperatures over the Plains as a result of southerly winds. That warmer air will push east early next week.

As we move into early next week however, southerly winds will usher in much warmer temperatures which should push us into the 70s by Monday with that trend likely to continue into the week. The next big rainmaker currently seems as though it will hold off until after Wednesday and thus the first half of the week will certainly make you want to get outside and enjoy welcomed spring-like weather.

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of a few showers. High near 67. Winds will be 5-12 mph from the south this morning, switching to the southeast by this afternoon.

Tonight: Rain likely, especially after midnight. Low around 50. Easterly winds from 3-10 mph. Total rainfall (including Saturday morning) will range from 0.50″-1″ with locally 1″+ possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers likely before noon. Chilly with a high only around 52. Northwest to northerly winds from 8-18 mph with gusts 20+ mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cool with a low around 31. There could be some areas of patchy fog develop around morning with the potential for areas of freezing fog. Winds will be light to calm.

Sunday: Sunny with a high around 60. Light northerly winds.

Sunday Night: Clear with a low near 37. Southeasterly winds at 3-10 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with a high in the low 70s.

Winter Hangs On

Discussion: Despite what the calendar states …Spring that is… winter will certainly be making its presence felt this week. A cold front pushed through over the weekend and behind it a cold area of high pressure has settled in across the Ohio Valley. This has set up days like today and yesterday where we have sunny skies but cool temperatures. This includes the overnight hours… we plunged to a low of 26 last night in Bowling Green for example.

High pressure will break down enough to allow a clipper system to move into the region overnight tonight. As a result clouds will be on the increase late today and there is a chance for isolated rain and snow showers tonight. Yes, I said snow showers. Don’t worry, no accumulation is expected if anything fall as all.

rain_snow

Simulated reflectivity from the NAM model indicates the chance of scattered precipitation tonight… precip will be in the form of rain and snow showers.

This area of disturbed weather will continue right into Tuesday and thus it will be a less than ideal day. A few scattered snow showers or flurries are possible but otherwise it will be cloudy and cold with a high only in the low 40s. That is about 20 degrees below average for this time of year. And if that’s not cold then the low by Wednesday morning surely is. Skies will clear overnight Tuesday allowing temperatures to plummet near 20. Brrr!

high_cold

The NAM model valid Wednesday morning indicates high pressure directly over south-central Kentucky. This means clear skies and calm winds which will lead to cold temperatures

As for the rest of Wednesday, skies should be generally sunny with yet another area of high pressure taking control. Still chilly despite the sun however with below average temperatures in the 40s.

By Thursday, the high pressure will have pushed well to our east as a low pressure and cold front approach our area from the west. This will place Kentucky in between the 2 systems allowing for gusty but warm southerly winds to occur. Thankfully this means Thursday we should see a return to the 60s for highs.

The approaching system will bring the chance for rain showers Thursday afternoon/evening into the overnight hours. Still some uncertainly with the timing of this system however, so some forecast fluctuation is likely.

Daily Forecasts:

Today: Mostly sunny but cool with a high near 49. Light northerly winds.

Tonight: 30% chance of light rain and snow showers. No accumulation with total precipitation less than 0.10″. Low around 30 with light northerly winds up to 8 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of a light snow shower or a few flurries. Chilly with a high only around 43. Breezy with winds from the northwest at 8-18 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clearing skies with winds decreasing becoming calm. Cold with a low near 20.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies with a few clouds late. Fairly light winds becoming southeasterly. High near 47.

Wednesday Night: Clouds will increase becoming cloudy by Thursday morning. Winds will be from the south at 4-12 mph.

Thursday: 30% chance of rain with otherwise cloudy skies. High near 61.

Thursday Night: 50% chance of rain with otherwise cloudy skies. Low in the low 50s.

Showers Tonight, Warming Later in The Work Week

As the stratus deck above us continues to dissipate and move to our northeast we should see temperatures start to rise, although today’s high temperature forecast seems it will be a little too high. Tonight the low will creep down to the mid-40s. A low-pressure system is settling into the Great Lakes Region and with that a cold front will swing through early Wednesday but little moisture has been advected into the area, so expect just scattered showers. As the low approaches pressure-gradients will tighten so wind speeds will increase. Expect winds to sustain around 10-15mph and gust to reach up to 35mph. Temperatures will reach the mid- to upper-50′s wednesday and settle back down to the mid-30′s wednesday night.

As the flow switches from the ridge/trough pattern into a more zonal flow, temperatures will begin to rise Thursday and Friday. Thursday we should see sunny skies with a high around 62 and a low that night around 40, under mostly clear skies. Friday is panning out to be a beautiful day as well with mostly sunny skies and a high in the lower 70′s.

However, these warm temperatures don’t look to last too long as the 6-10 probability outlook from the Climate Prediction center for temperatures is hinting at the same ridge trough pattern that we’ve seem to be stuck in. This is not a guarantee for cold weather next week but instead the probability that we will see temperatures that are below normal. 610temp.newWeekly Outlook:

Tonight: Low around 47, with a 20% chance of precipitation. Winds with be out of the south at 9-15mph.

Wednesday: High near 58, with a 30% chance of precipitation. South winds will switch to west in the afternoon as the sky gradually clears. Gust could reach 30mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 34. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.

Thursday: Sunny skies, high near 62. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies, low nearing 39.

Friday: Sunny skies, high near 72.

Friday night: Low near 48, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms.