Warmer but Cloudy Weekend

Shortwave IR Satellite (Source: COD)

It looks like a great start to our morning with few clouds and lots of sunshine for our Saturday. Temperatures will be much warmer compared to these last few days, with highs today heading up to the mid 50’s, and lows into the mid-30’s. A short-lived high pressure center moving through will attribute to these sunny skies. Despite this, we are looking into a cloudy weekend.

The above image is a map of projected cloud cover, and Sunday is projected to be a cloudy one, but there will be times that skies are more clear. Highs will be similar to Saturday, with temperatures in the mid-upper 50’s. Lows for Sunday will be in the mid 40’s. As we head overnight and into Monday afternoon, there is a small chance for rain showers. Highs will be cooler than what we’ll see for this weekend with temperatures in the mid-upper 40’s; lows will be in a similar range to the highs for Monday in the mid-lower 40’s.

Forecast:

Saturday: Sunny and warm, High: 58, Low: 33

Sunday: Overall cloudy and similarly warm to Saturday, High: 56, Low: 44

Monday: In the morning, 30% chance of showers, otherwise generally cloudy, High: 47, Low: 44

 

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A Change of Pace This Weekend

Greetings!

I do not know about you, but I am ready to see the sun and feel the warm air again. The weekend looks to bring that to us. Friday will start mostly cloudy with chilly temperature in the low to mid 30s. However, in southern Kentucky with clearing skies as the day goes progresses we will see highs in the upper 40s into the lower 50s.

In the over night hours there is an increase in moisture in the lower levels mixed with the cooling could lead to the formation of fog in central Kentucky. There is potential for freezing fog with temperatures with the lows into the lower 30s. This shouldn’t be to   impactful with ground temperatures above freezing.

The dark blue is were the moisture is located.

Saturday looks to be lovely and above average for this time of year. The high around low 60s and the average is in the mid 50s. with the low is in the upper 30s which the average low. As the high pressure moves away there are indications of small rain showers moving in the area in the later afternoon into the evening hours

If the rain can not beat the dry air on Saturday, then there is a better chance Sunday afternoon to see some light rain showers.

Summary:

Friday: 51/30

Saturday: 59/39 very small chance of rain, mostly sunny

Sunday: 54/37 increase in rain chance in the evening hours.

 

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Gorgeous Weekend Ahead

Good afternoon folks!!

Cool and cloudy conditions will stick around for the rest of this afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure at the surface continues to move towards the east. As the area of low pressure moves east, cooler and drier air will filter into the area from the northwest. Cloudy skies throughout south-central Kentucky will begin to clear out during the early morning hours as dry air moves into the lower and middle-levels of the atmosphere.

Might need to put on a extra layer as you head out the door on Friday morning. Temperatures will start off the day on the cool side, hovering right around the freezing mark with mostly clear skies.

Below: HRRR 13z, 11-16-18, Surface Temperature

Temperatures on Friday rebound back up into the upper 40s, with mostly clear skies as high pressure moves in from the west. Temperatures dip back down into the upper 20s during the overnight hours on Friday.

Saturday is going to be gorgeous, as zonal pattern sets up across much of the contiguous United States. Temperatures around the Bowling Green area will rise into the middle-to-upper 50s during the afternoon hours.

Forecast

Tonight: Cloudy skies clear out during the early evening hours, with a low of 28°. Calm winds out of the west.

Friday: Mostly sunny skies, with a high of 47°. NW wind at 5-10 mph.

Friday night: Partly cloudy skies, with a low of 27°. Winds will be calm.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies, with a high of 57°. Winds will be calm.

 

 

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1st measurable snow on 11/15 in Bowling Green since 1906

Bowling Green received 0.2″ of snow today which is only the 2nd time measurable snow has occurred on this date. The previous measurable snow on 11/15 occurred in 1906 when 4.5″ fell. The max temperature of 36°F is the 4th coldest since 1893 and is the coldest max temperature for the date since 1940. Receiving measurable snowfall prior to mid-November is rare in Bowling Green and has only happened 9 times, most recently on Halloween of 1993.

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Rain. Sleet. Snow??? OH MY!

Good evening WKU!

There is much to discuss in this weeks forecast. Firstly, I’ll discuss tonight’s bitterly cold air that will seemingly be here to stay for the meantime trend. Why Wednesday’s rain chances are highly valid and how tomorrow night will induce possible Thursday’s snow chances. Lastly, all this “hoopla” about snow that you might’ve heard is supposed to occur on Thursday, could actually happen. I’ll talk about that and just what you should expect to encounter for the next couple of days.

Hold up, wait a minute… did it snow at all for Tuesday? Many rumors have circulated about Tuesday’s AM snow and if you were up early enough (around 6am-ish) you might’ve saw a few flakes falling from the sky. However, it didn’t accumulate to “zilch” because Tuesday’s minimum temperature had not quite reached freezing this morning. We did however mange to get two tenths of an inch of rain, that makes nearly 3 inches in the first two weeks of November! It’s going to get a little wetter for Wednesday and Thursday!

Climatological Report (Daily) for Tuesday in Bowling Green, Ky

Wednesday partakes of mostly cloudy skies with inclined rain chances due to the gradual lifting of saturated (very humid) air Wednesday evening. That upstream trough aloft will make its way through the Mid-South by Thursday afternoon with winds up to 20 mph at the surface. Majority of this returning air flow will be induced from the southern moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the south/southeast U.S.. Giving the Mid-South more rain! Humid air moves into the region by Wednesday afternoon making room for a mixing scenario as dew points will be favorably 35°F by Wednesday evening. So what?! The high temperature for Wednesday is only supposed to get to reach 37°F. So, we could possibly see some freezing light rain by Wednesday after 8pm.

NAM surface relative humidity (courtesy Pivotal Weather)

Thursday continues to start out with messy conditions for this week’s trend. That circulating low associated with that fast moving trough will sqeeeeze it’s way in between the shortwave ridge of high pressure off the east coast. This keeps the mid-latitude cyclone alive and as this system rotates counterclockwise it will build up fast paced winds with it. The tighter gradient of pressure signifies faster winds and a change of wind speeds on the backside of the trough. On the back-end of the trough is a developing arctic jet stream of winds from the northwest that will invade the enclosed low Thursday to produce a phase change for your rainfall. Freezing rain will end early Thursday morning before 2am and will proceed as rain until noon. A slight risk for snow Thursday after 4pm will be slim chances but valid to contain importance because of the sporadic moisture return. Not nearly enough to cancel school though. We’ll be lucky to get 0.03″ of snow.

Composite reflectivity of the precipitation type with the 1000-500 mb thickness (courtesy Pivotal Weather).

TUES PM: Overnight Low of 31°F with mostly clear and dry skies. Winds from the north at roughly 5 mph.

WEDN: 37°F/31°F; Cloudy skies into overcast in the morning with humid conditions on the rise from southern moisture. Rain chances are medium after 10am (~40%) but increase to (100%) after 4pm. Freezing rain to begin between 8-10:00pm. Precip: (0.5″-0.75″).

THURS: 39°F/32°F; Overcast skies with freezing rain ending a couple hours at the top of the day. Nippy winds and light rain proceeds until about 7:00am accumulating to about 0.01″. A 30% chance of rain as those winds pick up speed throughout the day.  Snow chance of 30% as well that will most likely occur after 4pm and won’t accumulate to much.

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Winter is Coming

Town gossip has seen a rise in the use of the s-word recently. And that word is snow! Yes, last week there was a chance of snow placed in the forecast for tonight, but that hype has died out as the models are showing temps in the 40s and upper 30s as the precipitation rolls through our area today into tonight. That means it will be all rain this time around, but watch for a different story come mid-week.

We started off today in the mid 40s with a light drizzle, and it will remain cold with on and off drizzle throughout the rest of the evening through tomorrow morning. Tuesday will remain in the 30s all day as 10 mph winds from the North bring in cold air all day long. Overcast conditions will also prevent near-surface air temps from warming. Expect your high temp of 41 to occur during the middle of the night. Temperatures will steadily drop through the 30s during the day and into the upper 20s overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

18Z NAM showing statewide mid-afternoon temps in the low to mid 30s Tuesday – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Wednesday morning will start cold in the upper 20s and feel even colder with winds again coming out of the North around 10mph. Temperatures will edge into the low 40s by midday.

18Z NAM showing temps in the 20s all across KY at 6am CST- Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Thursday will start and end wet. Rain will begin very early Thursday morning and continue throughout the entirety of the day. As the sun sets, the predicted track of the upper level low will take it across South Central KY and advect cold air into the region. This will turn the rain into a wintry mix and eventually all snow later in the evening. It’s too early to determine any accumulation amounts, so make sure to tune in over the next couple days for more updates.

18Z GFS showing rain changing to snow by the evening hours on Thursday – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Tuesday: High of 41 around midnight with rain ending before noon. Daytime temps will be in the 30s with dry conditions.

Wednesday: High of 41, low of 28. Partly cloudy skies and dry.

Thursday: Rain becoming a wintry mix by the evening hours. Temps staying in the 30s all day, possibly nosing into the low 40s.

Overall, make sure to dress warm and be extra vigilant while driving this week. Driving in the rain is bad enough, but with the added threat of a wintry mix, it will be imperative that you drive slow and apply the brakes a second earlier than usual when approaching a red light or stop sign. If your tires are balding, try to get new ones either tomorrow or Wednesday before conditions deteriorate Thursday.

 

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Cold Start to the Week

Currently there is a high pressure system passing over Kentucky. A system centered in Wisconsin will pass eastward bringing with it some snow. Most of that snow will be to the north. A high pressure system will come down from Canada on Monday trying to bring colder temperatures with it. A low system in the west right now will be settle around the Carolinas at that time and will prevent temperatures getting too low. This will help keep most precipitation as rain.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif

Not much will occur for today as the high pressure system move us moves east and settles over the mid-Atlantic. Clouds over the midwest will be pushed into the area leading to mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon.

The southern part of the trough passing through Tuesday will become cut off. Where we sit will allow the cutoff to clear the skies.

SUMMARY:

  • Sunday:
    • High: 51
    • Low: 21
    • Conditions will become cloudy this evening.
  • Monday:
    • High: 47
    • Low: 36
    • Precipitation: Around a quarter to a half an inch with the majority of it being rain.
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 40
    • Low: 33
    • Conditions will improve beginning Tuesday night.
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First Taste of Winter

Last night’s cold front has brought in a wave of much colder air, giving us the cold air typical of a winter season. A strong high pressure field will bring in sunny skies to bring sunny conditions for your Saturday.

So dust off your winter jackets, mittens, and toboggans as high temperatures will only reach the mid-upper 30’s and lows will sink below freezing into the mid-20’s. Our Sunday will be slightly warmer with highs into the mid 40’s, and lows into the mid 30’s, with increasingly cloudy conditions, which will transition into complete overcast as of Monday. In fact, Monday may seem some rain for the afternoon hours, and perhaps snow will enter the picture for the evening hours. Expect highs into the mid-40’s and lows into the mid-30’s, so don’t expect the snow to stick.

6Z NAM Precipitation Type (Source: College of DuPage)

Forecast:

Saturday: Clear and cold: High: 37, Low: 26

Sunday: Increasing clouds for the afternoon, High: 44, Low: 36

Monday: Afternoon rain, evening flurries, High: 46, Low: 35

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Cold Weekend Ahead

Greetings!

A window into the winter months looks to be coming into our area today into the weekend. Friday starts off as a wet day with  a high in the upper 40s. By 8 AM, the rain is starting to move out of the area. As the rain chance diminishes in the afternoon hours, the clouds stick around all day Friday in clears out Saturday morning.  We can not fully say the rain chance is zero percent with the still some forcing is still lingering around the majority of the day.

Looking at the thermal profiles, it is possible to see a mix precipitation night with the Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving into the area. According to 06z GFs, around  21z, 3 central time, a strong CAA will start to come into the area and become stronger as the day evening and night goes on.

The mixture will not affect traveling with the pavement temperature in the upper 40s the precipitation that makes it to the ground will melt on contact.

Saturday will be cloud at the start of the day, but will clear out before the afternoon hours. As  low level high moves into the area it will bring clear weather here. The temperatures will start in the 20s then rise to the 40s by the afternoon. If you go out tomorrow you better bring your winter jackets and stay warm!

As the ridge axis comes into the area later part of the weekend it’ll allow for a little warm up Sunday with highs in the upper 40s, however Sunday morning will be in the 20s again. By afternoon Sunday there will be an increase in mid-level moisture which will cause an increase in clouds.  The beginning of next will will start of rainy with a cold week ahead!

Summary

Friday: 47/26 slight chance of rain into the night

Saturday: 41/24 clear with wind

Sunday: 49/36 Increase in clouds by afternoon

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Rain Chances Tonight, Big Cool Down this Weekend

Good afternoon folks!!

Cloudy skies from this morning have transitioned into partly sunny skies this afternoon. Thanks to the cloud cover from this morning and a steady wind out of the NE, high temperatures for today should top out in the middle 50s across much of the area.

The rain chances are on the increase as we head into tonight, thanks to an elongated middle to upper-level trough moving through the region with a strengthening jet stream over the Ohio Valley. The strengthening of upper-level winds indicates divergence aloft and convergence in the lower-levels of the atmosphere. The peak strengthening of the shortwave will likely happen over eastern KY as the SW low-level jet kicks it into gear during the overnight hours. PWAT (Precipitable Water) values are suppose to reach about an inch just east of Bowling Green area. Precipitable Water is the measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb (NWS Glossary, 2009). The response or result will be numerous rain showers throughout south central Kentucky.

Below: NAM 09Z 11-09-2018 PWAT & Sfc-400mb Mean Wind

For your Friday, rain chances stick around for the morning hours as the upper-level trough axis and surface low pressure move northeastward. Light rain showers will exit the region heading into the early afternoon hours with partly cloudy skies sticking around for the rest of the day. High temperatures across the area on Friday will have a hard time getting out of the 40s thanks to the persistent cloud cover and a steady wind out of the NW. The figure below shows CAA (Cold Air Advection) filtering into the area from the north throughout the day on Friday.

Below: NAM 18Z 9-9-18 850mb Theta-e & Winds

Friday night, high pressure will build into the area from the west. Cloudy skies from earlier in the day will move out of the area during the early evening hours, giving way to mostly clear skies. Temperatures throughout the evening hours and into the early morning hours will cool quite a bit thanks to the mostly clear skies. Temperature cools off more under clear skies, because heat that is emitted from the earth’s surface escapes freely into the atmosphere resulting in cooler temperatures. Low temperatures across the area for Friday night will struggle getting out of the 20s.

Surface high pressure that moved into the area from the west will dominate the region the whole weekend. High pressure over the area means that conditions will remain dry and cool. High temperature for the Bowling Green area will climb into the upper 30s, possibly hitting 40°.

Forecast

Tonight: Rain with otherwise cloudy skies. Low around 42° with NE winds at 5-10 mph. Precipitation totals less than a quarter inch.

Friday: Showers mainly in the morning hours. High temperature of 48° with NW wind at 5-10 mph. Precipitation totals during the morning hours of less than a quarter inch.

Friday night: Partly cloudy skies with a low of 28°. NW winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny skies, High of 40°. NW winds at 3-8 mph.

 

 

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