WKU Meteorology

Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

WKU Meteorology - Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

What to expect over Fall Break

Bowling Green is currently 80 degrees and sunny. Temperatures will only get hotter throughout the day, as we are expected to reach a high of 87 today. These temperatures are much warmer than normal, but there is a blast of anticipated relief headed our way! Below is the NAM 250 mb wind and height map for early Friday morning. The upper-level trough will begin digging into the lower U.S. more than we originally thought earlier in the week. As a result, we will see much cooler temperatures this weekend when the cold front moves through.

namUS_250_spd_048

Both the GFS and NAM are in agreement with the timing of this cold front moving through our area. Late Thursday night, the front will start moving through Kentucky and will pass through Bowling Green overnight. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely with this cold front. The NAM Simulated Reflectivity for around midnight on Thursday shows the leading edge of the front right on the border of Kentucky. namUS_sfc_radar_042

After this front passes, temperatures will cool drastically. Saturday will be gorgeous with a forecasted high of around 62 degrees and a low Saturday night of around 40 degrees. Below is the NAM 2m Temperature map Saturday morning after the front has passed.

namUS_sfc_temp_072

This weather will make for a soggy end to the week and a beautiful weekend! Have a wonderful Fall Break!

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast (NOAA):

  • Today: High of 87, sunny.
  • Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Light southeast wind.
  • Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning.
  • Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Low around 67. South wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Friday: Showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 75. South wind 11 to 17 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
  • Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 62.
  • Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
  • Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

 

More cool weather on the way

Bowling Green hit a high of 83 degrees today, which is slightly warmer than average temperatures for the end of September. High pressure continues to sit over the region bringing partly cloudy to sunny skies for the start of the work week. A weak cold front will start moving into the area on Tuesday. The figure below shows the surface fronts and pressure systems for Tuesday morning. (NOAA)

tuesday

This cold front will not have much affect on the 80 degree temperatures, nor will there be any precipitation associated with it. The bigger system to keep an eye on is a cold front moving through later on in the week. Models suggest this strong cold front will move across Kentucky during the day on Friday, bringing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows overall temperatures having a 50% probability of being cooler than normal after this front moves through.610temp_new

We will keep you posted as this system develops throughout the week and provide more information on the more fall-like temperatures we could be seeing with this system. Until then, expect sunny skies and more 80 degree weather!

Bowling Green’s 5-day Forecast (NOAA):

  • Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Light south wind.
  • Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
  • Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
  • Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
  • Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
  • Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 85.
  • Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
  • Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
  • Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

 

 

Great Start to Fall

Discussion:

The first half of this week has turned out to be beautiful with highs breaking 75° and lows in the upper 40s. The second half of the week should shape up to be pretty much the same. The overall high pressure for the area has shifted northeast and is centered over the Great Lake Regions. High pressure is what gives us clear skies, light wind, and no rain. This region of high pressure will keep our temperatures relatively cool for the next several days. Thursday morning fog will be present over much of the area, especially in places where fog easily forms (low lying areas and land near water).  The fog will dissipate by 9am, but could cause issues for the morning commute. Sunny to mostly sunny skies will dominate the region throughout most of the weekend. Sunday brings the first small chance of clouds and rain.
Valid 21UTC(4pm) NAM Surface Temperature, Wind, and Mean Sea Level Pressure(MSLP)
                                           Courtesy: Twisterdata.com
Week at a Glance:
Thursday: High – 80°F with a calm wind out of north under sunny skies. Early morning possible.
                 Low – 55°F under clear skies. Calm wind changing to NE.
Friday:      High – 82°F Sunny skies, calm wind out of the NE.
                 Low – 59°F Clear with calm winds out of the NE.
Saturday:  High- 82°F Mostly sunny.
                 Low – 60°F Mostly clear.
Sunday:    High – 80°F Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain.

Beautiful, Cool Intro to Fall

Forecast:
Sunday has shaped up to be a very nice day with a high temperature topping out at 85°F. A weak cold front passed through the southeast this afternoon which will have a greater chance to change the temperatures for the next few days. The image below shows the cold front that passed through this afternoon and the region of high pressure that will fall in behind it.

                                           Surface conditions(4pm Sun. Sept. 21, 2014) Courtesty: NOAA

The wind has shifted to a northern wind following the passage of the front. This will bring cooler temperatures to the region beginning later tonight and continuing for the next several days. Clouds will begin to form as the sun sets, but should clear by early Monday morning. This cloud cover will keep the overnight temperatures from plummeting into the 40s. Monday morning a broad area of high pressure will set up just west of the Mississippi River. This area of high pressure will keep SOKY under clear skies through Wednesday. The cooler temperatures associated with this trough will begin to be noticeable on Monday with the high only reaching 71°F. Overnight cooling due to these clear skies will bring some of the coldest temperatures seen yet this fall. The layer of clouds that usually keeps the warm air escaping from the ground near the surface will not be around, allowing this warm air to escape and causing the low temperatures to drop to a chilly 43°.

Week at a Glance:
Sunday Night: Low – 51°F with no chance for rain. Light wind out of the north.

Monday: High – 71°F with sunny skies for most of the day. Winds 5-10 mph out of the north.

Monday Night: Low – 45°F with clear skies. Light wind out of the north continues.

Tuesday: High- 75°F under sunny skies. Winds increasing to 5 mph from the NE.

Tuesday Night: Low – 43°F under clear skies. Winds around 5 mph out of the NE.

Wednesday: High – 79°F under mostly clear skies. Low near 52°F.

Sunny Weekend!

southeast.vis

Good Afternoon Folks!

We have had some beautiful weather this week and we are wondering if it will continue. The image at the top is the Visible radar from COD. Showing that right now we just have a few clouds over our area. These clouds will persist for the rest of the day but will clear up as the night comes around. The model runs are showing the temperatures will be in the lower 80s today and tomorrow. We will have a little bit of wind from the south west which will make it feel a little mild out and about these next two days.

Now lets talk about our rain chances. Or lack of for that matter. namSE_sfc_prec_027sun

The only chance of rain the models are predicting for the next couple days is a slight chance for a quick shower along a cold front that will be passing thru mid day on Sunday. This cold front will bring the highs down for Monday. Lower 70s is what we could see for the most of next week. All in all, the rest of your weekend is looking like a great one!

Here’s your Weekend Forecast:

Saturday Night: Low of 68, Mostly clear, winds from the S at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: High of 83, partly cloudy, slight chance of a shower during the afternoon, clouds then clearing for mostly sunny near the evening, winds from the south west at 5 to 10mph.

More updates coming soon!

Beginning Your Work Week

Temperature at the airport sits at 53 degrees at the moment. These fall like temperatures are going to stay with us for a couple of days but are going to slightly increase as we head towards the weekend. Here is the current surface analysis map.

surfaceanalysisgood

We have high pressure dominating our region at the moment and will continue to do so as the week progresses. We look forward into tomorrow where we will continue to have slightly overcast skies but no signs of rain. The clouds will start out partly cloudy and progressively become more potent as the day progresses. The forecasted high temperature for Monday is 80 degrees according to the National Weather Service which is a great start to the work week. Make sure you pack a jacket for your morning commute! Here is your final Monday workday forecast.

Bowling Greens Monday Forecast:

Monday Morning: Partly cloudy skies. Cool, low of 52 degrees with calm winds.

Monday Afternoon: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. High of 80 with a light breeze from the SW at 5-10mph.

Monday Night: Mostly Cloudy with temperatures entering the mid 60′s with a WNW wind of about 5-10mph.

Enjoy Your Monday!

 

 

Weekend Outlook

The current temperature in Bowling Green is sitting at 62 degrees, which is 13 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. The cold front, which is now situated to our south, is definitely being felt across the region this morning. This is the 24 hour change in temperature for the U.S.

sfc_con_24temp

The forecasted high temperature for today is 70 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. The average daytime high for mid-September is around 80 degrees, so the cold front brought well below-average temperatures for our area. We will continue to see these cooler temperatures into the weekend.

Today will remain cloudy with a northeast wind. There is a chance of rain this evening as an upper-level jet streak makes its way into Kentucky. This will provide enough energy for some possible scattered showers this afternoon into tonight.  A strong high pressure system currently in the central U.S. will beginning moving into the area tomorrow and Sunday, bringing sunshine and a slight warm-up until another cold front begins to move through early next week.

current

Take advantage of the cooler-than-average temperatures this weekend and start enjoying your Fall activities now!

Bowling Green’s Weekend Forecast:

  • Today: Scattered showers, mainly between noon and 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 70. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Tonight: Isolated showers. Cloudy, with a low around 60. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 70. North wind 7 to 9 mph.
  • Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. North wind 5 to 7 mph.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
  • Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

 

First Glimpse of Fall

Today and tomorrow we will see temperatures and humidity increase as we continue to have southerly winds bringing us Gulf moisture. A low pressure system is positioned over the Northern plains and its corresponding cold front will impact our region Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

noaad1

With this cold front, expect a squall line to develop over Missouri and Illinois Wednesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, parts of Missouri, and the northern tip of Kentucky on Wednesday.

day2otlk_0600

By the time this squall line moves through western Kentucky into Bowling Green Wednesday night, the surface temperatures will have cooled and the storms will lose some of their strength. This is is the composite reflectivity forecast for Wednesday around 7pm:

NAM_221_2014090906_F42_CREF_SURFACE

These storms are expected to move through Bowling Green overnight on Wednesday and into the morning hours. These storms are not expected to be severe for our area, but heavy rainfall and lightning are likely.

Behind these storms is our first glimpse of Fall. The jet streams are entering their first phase of the season where they will merge and begin a very defined upper-level ridge/trough pattern that will bring warm-ups and cool-downs throughout the Fall season. The NAM 200 mb heights and wind shows the two jet streams as they are currently beginning to merge together.

NAM_221_2014090906_F00_WSPD_200_MB

After the front passes, a developing high pressure system will move across most of the U.S. for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s for the latter part of the week into the weekend.

Bowling Green’s 7 Day Forecast:

  • Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight.
  • Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
  • Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
  • Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 76. Southwest wind around 8 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
  • Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
  • Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
  • Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
  • Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
  • Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.

 

Sunny skies and more cool weather on the way!

The cold front that pushed through the region this weekend brought relief from the warm, humid, summer temperatures that we had been experiencing for the last few weeks. The current temperature map shows temperatures across the nation are much cooler in the northeast and trending warmer along the central plains region.

NAM_221_2014090800_F00_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND

We saw a high of 77 degrees today, according to the Kentucky Mesonet. Temperatures will increase throughout the week as we have winds becoming more southwesterly, bringing warmer air. Even with this temporary warm-up, we will only see temperatures in the mid 80s for the early part of the week. A low pressure system will begin to develop in the central U.S. on Tuesday and this will bring us even cooler temperatures later on in the week.

data/nam/18/nam_namer_051_1000_500_thick.gif

As of result of this low pressure system, a cold front will begin forming and making its way into our area Wednesday night into Thursday. Until then, enjoy the sunny skies and gorgeous weather as we begin our transition into Fall!

Bowling Green’s 3 Day Forecast:

  • Tonight: Mostly clear skies, low of 59 with a light north wind.
  • Monday: Sunny, high of 82, light north winds in the afternoon.
  • Monday Night: Mostly clear skies, low around 61, light north winds.
  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies, high near 85. Light south winds in the afternoon.
  • Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy skies, low around 68. Light south winds.
  • Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 87. South winds.
  • Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely with a 60% chance of rain. Mostly cloudy skies, with a low around 71.

A Little Rain and a Welcomed Cool Down

Today will be the last hot and humid day before a welcomed cold front swings through the area and provides some relief. Scattered pop up showers are possible this afternoon and evening as the front draws closer. More available moisture and better lifting just to our north and west will allow for more widespread showers across western Kentucky and north toward southern Illinois. The latest HRRR and RAP models are in pretty good agreement with the placement of rain this afternoon. This is the simulated reflectivity from the HRRR model for 4pm today.

hrrrMW_sfc_radar_007

Across the Bowling Green area we will see a 20% chance for a pop up thunderstorm this afternoon and a slightly better chance for a thunderstorm this evening. Thunderstorms will be spotty in nature, but any storm that does develop may not move very fast due to slow storm motion and could produce locally heavy rain. Isolated flooding events are not out of the question with this type of setup. In general, 0.25 – 0.5 inches of rain looks like a good bet across much of the area through Saturday evening.

d12_fill

Saturday

Saturday doesn’t look too promising if you were wanting to head outdoors. With on and off rain showers likely most of the day, you would be better off waiting until Sunday.

Sunday

With temperatures topping out around 80 degrees and partly sunny skies, Sunday will definitely be the pick of the weekend! Any leftover rain showers from the cold front will move out during the early morning hours of Sunday, leaving clearing skies throughout the afternoon.

Weekly Outlook

Daily rain chances enter the picture again by next Tuesday and will last through the end of the week. However, another cold front will arrive Thursday, bringing with it a taste of Fall!

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind around 6 mph.
Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. North wind 5 to 7 mph.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83.
Wednesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.