Remnants of Nicholas Are to Blame

Good afternoon, everyone!

Today, we have had high pressure fighting off those pesky storm chances for our region of the state, leaving us with fair skies and rather comfortable conditions. However, the remnants of Nicholas will promote the return of a rather active trend into our weekend. For each day that remains in our week, storm chances will remain scattered. Our main concern will be once again with heavy rainfall, to which will bring about the potential for localized flash flooding. Other than that, high and low temperatures will remain uniform, peaking in the mid 80’s and bottoming out in the upper 60’s. If thunder isn’t heard, get outdoors and relax this weekend!

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!

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Stormy Today, Clearing Tomorrow

Good morning everyone!

Forecast

For today, you can expect quite a soaker, as the National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Flash Flood Watch for today until 7pm CDT.

Map of Forecast Area
NWS Louisville, as of 9:49am CDT

As always, please allow yourself some extra travel time with the risk of flooding. Most importantly, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN. With the potential for flash flooding, check your local weather and traffic before you go out.

The widespread rain and thunderstorms end later this morning, followed by a quick afternoon break, then back to storm chances this evening with a cold front passing through the area. Expect temperatures to hang in the mid to upper 70’s. Tonight, the rain clears out, followed by partly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 60s. Tomorrow we get the chance to dry out, as temperatures rebound into the mid 80’s and partly sunny skies.

Weather Fact!

It may be wet out there today, but it does not hold a candle to December 7th, 1924, when Bowling Green set a daily precipitation record with a whopping 6.15″ of precipitation! (NWS Louisville)

Stay dry out there folks!

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Cold Front Stirs up Storm Chances

Good afternoon, everyone!

Tomorrow, our trend of dry, sunny conditions will be replaced with a rather active one for the remainder of the week. For the morning and afternoon hours, scattered showers and storms will be likely throughout the south central region of the state, ahead of a cold front. Our main threats include gusty winds, heavy rainfall, small hail, and lightning. If you plan on spending any time outdoors tomorrow, remember to get indoors if any thunder is heard!

Moreover, this will promote a muggier feel to the air, further adding to the heat as temperatures top out in the lower 80’s. I don’t know about you, but I am definitely ready for summer to be officially over!

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Sunshine Persists Into the Weekend

Good evening, everyone! For today’s post, we will be taking a look at the forecast for tomorrow and into the weekend!

For the remainder of the week, high pressure will make for an abundance of sunshine and dryness. Moreover, temperatures will be trending upwards as we progress into and throughout the weekend. For tomorrow, the high will reach lower 80’s, then the mid 80’s for the following day, and finally the upper 80’s to close out our weekend. For the most part, it will feel only a bit humid, as dew points top out in the mid 60’s each day. If you plan to spend time outdoors (to which we strongly encourage), be sure to have protection from the sunlight and water at all times to stay cool and hydrated.

Other than that, we hope that you have a wonderful end to the week! Enjoy this beautiful weekend!

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An Introduction, and a Forecast

Good morning, readers!

Introduction

For those who do not know me, I am Mason Quiram and I am new to the blog. I am so excited to be here to talk weather with you all! I have spent a great portion of my life reading weather blogs just like this one, and it is crazy to be on the contributing end now!

Forecast

For today, you can expect a few scattered showers early this afternoon, otherwise comfortably warm with temperatures in the lower 80’s. Tonight, skies clear and temperatures drop as a result. Walking out the door tomorrow could be a cool one, with early morning temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s. Enjoy the free air conditioning!

Weather Fact!

Did you know?: On this day in 2004, former U.S. President George W. Bush became the first American President to visit the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL. (NWS)

Have a great day everyone!

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An Uneventful, but Beautiful Tuesday Ahead

Good morning, everyone!

Today, our region will be in between two frontal boundaries, thus maintaining high pressure. In other words, conditions will be comfortable, with abundant sunshine and calm winds. Humidity will be rather low, but still present, so expect the air to feel somewhat sticky, but not oppressive. Moreover, temperatures will peak in the lower 80’s this afternoon and drop to the lower 60’s by nightfall. As always, if you plan to spend time outdoors, make sure to be prepared to both stay cool and protected from ultraviolet (UV) radiation.

(Weather Prediction Center)

That’s all for today! Have a wonderful start to the work week!

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A Wonderful Start to the Holiday Weekend

Good afternoon, readers! In today’s post, we will take a look at what to expect for tomorrow, to which will be the start of a long weekend for most of you!

Tomorrow, we will have high pressure in our region of the country, promoting plentiful sunshine and fair weather. However, it may feel rather sticky out as dew points creep up into the lower 60’s by the afternoon. As far as temperatures go, values will peak in the lower 80’s by the afternoon and drop to the lower 60’s by nightfall.

Our only concern will be with the ultraviolet (UV) index, as it is predicted to reach very high values. As always, make sure to have sunblock (SPF 15+), protective clothing and accessories, and a bottle of water on hand if you plan to spend time outdoors.

Predicted surface map for tomorrow afternoon (Weather Prediction Center)

That’s all for today! We hope you have a wonderful holiday weekend!

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The Aftermath of Ida

Good afternoon! We hope that you are having a wonderful week so far!

On Sunday, Ida made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane, plaguing Louisiana with flooding and power outages. Incredibly, Ida made landfall on the same day that Hurricane Katrina did back in 2005. Ida reached sustained winds up to 150 miles per hour, making it just shy of reaching Category 5 status. So far, there have been five deaths reported in association with this storm.

Check out the flooding that New Orleans saw! (New York Times)

For our county, rainfall totals reached up to 2.3 inches on Tuesday alone. That is incredible! Did you see the flooding on campus? I sure did!

Have a great rest of your week!

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WKU Storm Chase Day 12

This is the final day of our storm chase trip for 2021. We started in Lubbock, TX this morning. This would be our last forecast discussion of the trip. We began the discussion at 10:30 that morning with two possible targets available. We had two possible targets again today, but had to commit to one since they were pretty far apart from each other. The first is in south eastern New Mexico, and the second target is near Midland, Texas.

Our forecasters going over the final forecast discussion on May 29, 2021 in Lubbock, Texas.

The Atmospheric Setup

The ingredients for the atmospheric setup today was not entirely spatially coherent. It was difficult to pick a target because of this fact. The upper-level 500mb support was weak in most areas of the south central US, but it was sufficient for severe weather after 18Z, only producing winds at around 30 knots. The available CAPE and moisture in the region were not problematic, but there was a significant lack of wind shear in the lowest 1km, and the method of initiation was different for both targets. In New Mexico a dry line would be the main forcing mechanism, but storm motion suggested that storms would move with the dryline and become linear rather than move off the line. The second target near Midland, Texas had a zone of weak surface wind convergence, which suggested a good boundary for storms to track along with areas of localized vorticity. In the end we chose to chase the Midland, Texas target in hopes for more discrete super cell structure.

The Chase

We did not have a long drive today. Our target area was only 2 hours away and once we got there we had some time to play with. We ended up in a park south of Midland, and we spent some time throwing a football. We watched growing cumulus clouds for a good portion of the afternoon, and by 5:30 we were hitting the road to chase storms. A land spout was spotted south east of Monahans, Texas. This land spout was on the ground for over 5 minutes and was very well defined. This was occurring as storm cells merged into a single storm.

The land spout we located south east of Monahans, Texas
Base reflectivity of storms after they merged. This storm produced the land spout.

Once the land spout was over we dropped south to observe a developing super cell to the north west. We stopped at the end of a dirt road to view a spectacular supercell structure. We watched two very high based low precipitation super cells pass over us. It created an amazing view and we stayed there until there was no light left to view the storms. Once our chase day came to an end we headed back to Monahans, Texas. The trip home now begins and we will be back in Bowling Green by Sunday night.

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WKU Storm Chase Day 11

We woke up in McPherson, KS after a long day of chasing. On this day we had a forecast discussion in the van after we looked around at some damage from strong winds, hail and flooding from the night before. There were two possible targets for the day: eastern Oklahoma or the Texas Panhandle.

Wind damage and residual flooding from storms the previous night just south of McPherson, KS.

The Atmospheric Setup

The upper level support is most present over the east-central Texas Panhandle and into central and eastern Oklahoma, but there is a large area of sufficient upper level support. The theta-e advection is more sufficient in eastern Oklahoma yet there are still some larger values into the Texas Panhandle. The theta-e values within the target areas are adequate for providing moisture and surface lifting. The CAPE is also very sufficient through the target areas with some CIN being present in the southern Texas Panhandle which could limit some convection in that area.

Choosing a Target

The target areas were very similar in their atmospheric setups. The soundings and hodographs looked better in Oklahoma, but the capping in Texas would have more potential for discrete supercells instead of the linear storm mode expected in Oklahoma. The next chase day would most likely be in western Texas based on the guidance from the morning model runs. Taking all of this into consideration as well as road networks and terrain, we decided to target the southeastern Texas Panhandle near Paducah.

The Chase

We had a long drive to get in position for the day so we opted for a quick subway lunch in the car. Once we were in position we saw some storms trying to form with some skinny updrafts but nothing was able to intensify enough to become a supercell.

A skinny updraft near Paducah, TX.

Near the end of the day we found a storm to watch while the sun was setting. There were many photo opportunities of the storm structure and plenty of flies to go around.

After a long day of driving we arrived in Lubbock, TX and ate at Triple J Chophouse & Brew Co. We then headed to the hotel to prepare for our last day of chasing!

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