Summer Takes a Final Stand

Happy Wednesday!

Temperatures are back in the lower 90s yet again, as Summer continues to hold on tightly.  As the first day of Fall approaches this weekend, when will actual Fall-like temperatures will begin?

Unfortunately, it seems that Summer is taking a final stand over at least the next week.  Unseasonably warm weather is forecast across the United States over the next seven days, as the jet stream is kept to our north and a Summer-like pattern is withheld.  With warm temperatures and high humidity expected, it is important to drink plenty of fluids and limit your time outdoors under direct sunlight.

Finally!  As we look to the 8-14 day outlook, there is hope past the next week for cooler temperatures.  Models are indicating a dip in the jet stream, bringing more Fall-like conditions.  It is too far out to speculate on specifics, but it is possible with this change in pattern that parts of the U.S. could see severe storms.  Simply something to keep an eye on after this next week.

Today: Isolated showers and storms, high temperature of 91

Tonight: Partly cloudy, low temperature overnight of 70

Tomorrow: An isolated shower or two, high temperature of 92

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Back in the 90’s… Again!

Good afternoon!

Hotter temperatures this week will make you think, is summer weather ever going to end? Well, with autumn equinox approaching on Saturday 8:54PM CDT, summer is looking to give it all he’s got before then. High temperatures go from mid 80’s with light rain to a scorching mid 90’s through Thursday. So whats the blueprint? The Mid-South region received predominant southern moisture over the past couple of days correlated with low-leveled tropical storm Hurricane Florence. This airflow moved northeastward as a high pressured zone moves into our region increasing temperatures to low 90’s for the next few days. Therefore, an abundance of Sun along with a slight northward wind at the surface will be suitable for convective activity throughout the day.

NAM guidance for MSLP and 10m winds in knots (courtesy of PivotalWeather) 

This is key towards the increase of clouds and will indeed produce a valid, but slight risk for a few scattered showers throughout this afternoon into your evening hours. Today conditions are summer-like and slightly humid. However, not too bad of a feeling due to that slight north wind around 5 mph. Dew points will level out to the 70 mark around sunset inducing partly cloudy skies tonight. Wednesday starts out with slight cloud cover for temperatures will be a close call to 90 degrees due to that absorption of radiation by various cloud cover.

Average total cloud cover in a NAM mod. guidance (courtesy of COD)

Here’s my forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny skies with gradual increase in cloud cover to scattered clouds. High temperature at 92 degrees.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy skies with a slight chance for scattered rain showers in the evening hours. Low temp in the lower to mid 60’s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, temporal clouds with a high temperature of upper 80’s (could reach 90). A low temp in the mid 60’s.

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When Will Fall Begin?

While Florence dumped an absolute deluge of rain on the East Coast, Bowling Green officially received .13 inches from rain associated with the remnants of the hurricane. As the post tropical system moves out, high pressure will begin to move in by mid-week. Another very slight chance for rain around the dinner time hours tomorrow will be the last for the next few days. And as the rain goes away, the mercury will take quite the leap with temperatures soaring yet again into the low 90s. While it is already meteorological Fall and will officially be astronomical Fall in just a matter of days from now, don’t be fooled. Prepare for conditions equivalent to the dog days of summer.

Low pressure moving out, high pressure building in

0Z Tuesday NAM Valid from 12Z Tuesday to 6Z Thursday- Courtesy Pivotal Weather

 

Things will be heating up on Wednesday as seen below

0Z NAM valid for 21Z Wednesday (3pm CDT)- Courtesy Pivotal Weather

With a lack of clouds and very weak winds on Wednesday and Thursday, there won’t be any relief from the heat. Dew points will be in the upper 60s to low 70s throughout the week. Any outdoor activities should be done with caution especially if they are strenuous. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks.

To recap:

Tuesday: Slight chance of rain, mainly around the early dinner time hours. High of 90 with partly sunny conditions. Winds will be light out of the West then North later in the day.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a high of 91. Wind will again be light.

Thursday: High of 93, with clear skies allowing plenty of opportunity for a real heater of a day.

For now, those pumpkin spice lattes will be the closest thing any of us will get to that Fall-feelin’. The flannels and orchard visits will have to wait a little while longer.

 

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A Wet Start to the Week

Friday September 14 Hurricane Florence made landfall as a category 1. There are parts of North Carolina now flooded with 10 feet of water. We continue to think and pray for those affected by the storm.

GOES 16 Satellite Images of Tropical Depression Florence

Hurricane Florence has now transitioned into a Tropical Depression and is making its way towards Eastern Kentucky where it will sweep up towards the Northeast. Bands from Florence will sweep across the western part of the state including Bowling Green.  While Bowling Green will receive rain, it won’t be much (less than a quarter of an inch).

GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation from Sunday through Tuesday

Unfortunately, the area will be muggy for the next few days as dewpoints stay in the 60s. Temperatures will continue in the low to mid 80s through Monday where it will then climb into the upper 80s and 90s to finish off the week.

SUMMARY:

Sunday will see a high of 84 and a low of 69 with showers in the afternoon.

Monday will reach a high of 81 with a low of 68 with showers and a chance for thunderstorms throughout the day.

Tuesday will reach a high of 87 with a low of 72. Skies will be clear with the exception of a few clouds left from Florence.

I hope everyone has a fun, safe week!

 

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High Pressure and High Humidity for this Weekend

15Z Current Surface Map (Source: College of DuPage)

Days with high humidity aren’t days to look forward to, and this Saturday is no different. Currently, we’re looking at a muggy start to our late-morning and this won’t budge any time soon. A strong high pressure zone lies within Michigan. Dew points will stay well into the low 70’s and can fluctuate to the upper 60’s. Stay hydrated if you plan on prolonged outdoor activities.

Saturday: Sunny, warm and humid; High: 89, Low: 71

Sunday: Small chance of showers for the evening; High: 82, Low: 73

Monday: Sunny; High: 82, Low: 65

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A Peaceful Weekend Ahead

Greetings!

Friday, the 14th of September, looks to be a nice day with above average temperatures. The dew points will make it feel worse than it actual is. Dew points starting in the high 60s and going to the low 70s as the day progresses.

In BowlingGreen at 12z, 7 am Central Time, the temperature is at 72 with the dew point at 69. The high today will be about 88 degrees with the dew points about 71 degrees. As a result, it will feel muggy today.

Saturday it looks to be similar to Friday, with temperatures reaching about 89 and dew points around 72.

This warm weather has to do with the High pressure centered over Michigan.This high bringing the moisture from the gulf, which is causing  high dew points.

Current US Surface Weather Map

In Summary:

Friday: High around 88 with dew points maxing  around 71. With low  around 70.

Saturday: High around 89 with dew points maxing around 72. With the low around 71.

Sunday: High around 82 with low around 69 with a rain chance increasing through the night as remnants of Florence approach the area.

 

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Summer-Like Temperatures for the Next Few Days

Summer-like temperatures and pleasant conditions will dominate the area Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Temperatures for Friday will be a bit warmer than today as the center of an area of high pressure moves into the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures around Bowling Green tomorrow will top out in the upper 80’s with a mix of scattered clouds and sun.

Below: Fri 2018-09-14 18Z 500mb Temp/Height/Wind

Warm temperatures will continue into Friday night with lows around the area hovering right around 70 degrees. Some models are hinting at some early morning fog on Saturday. If you plan on hitting the roads early in the morning, don’t rule out running into some fog, especially in the low lying areas. Saturday’s forecast looks just as good as Fridays, temperatures will top out in the upper 80’s.

Below: Sat 2018-09-15 21Z 2m Temperature

Bowling Green Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear skies, low right around 70 degrees, can’t rule out morning fog especially in the low lying areas

Friday: Mostly clear skies with scattered clouds developing in the afternoon, high temperature will be in the upper 80’s

Saturday: Mostly clear skies with scattered clouds developing in the afternoon, high temperature will be in the upper 80’s

Turn to the Tropics

Hurricane Florence is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm that is slowing down on it’s approach towards the Carolina Coastlines.

Below: Official National Hurricane Center forecast cone, updated Thursday 11 PM EDT

This monster of a storm is going to produce extended impacts along the Carolina Coastlines and the interior portions of North and South Carolina. Heavy rain, damaging winds, and storm surge is what to expect. Even though Florence’s category has lowered, the wind field has grown massive in size. Inland flooding from feet of rain and up to 13 feet of storm surge is what to expect and will produce life-threatening conditions.

Below: NOAA/NWS/NCEP/WPC Rainfall Forecast, updated Thursday 4:51 EDT

The remnants of Hurricane Florence will be watched carefully over the next few days when the storm moves over land.

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Hurricane Florence Approaches the East Coast

Photos: Hurricane Florence viewed from the ISS at 9:30 am Wednesday morning, by Alexandar Gerst

 

Wow.

A truly terrifying yet breathtaking view, Hurricane Florence is on a path of destruction towards the U.S. East Coast.  Thankfully, the hurricane has been downgraded to an intense category 2 hurricane- however the threats do not change.  Do not think of this storm as simply a number!  Florence will likely bring life-threatening storm surge, strong winds, and fresh water flooding to a widespread area across the Carolinas.

Picture: Official NHC forecast graphic, updated at Wednesday 11 pm EDT

The worst- and the most difficult to predict- part about Florence’s track?  Florence is forecast to slam on the brakes, either right before or after landfall somewhere along the North Carolina coast on Friday.  Then, as illustrated in the NHC forecast graphic above, the hurricane will slide westward into South Carolina.  This is bad for several reasons.  First, the storm has been traveling for quite a long distance as a major hurricane.  Even over the last few hours, the wind field has expanded greatly and with this comes large waves and storm surge.  When Florence stalls, all of this wave energy and surge will be forced into the coast over a long period of time- potentially up to a full day, as some models are indicating.  Secondly, this means that the worst hit area will also see prolonged hurricane force winds, spelling disaster for the region.  North Carolina will likely get the worst of both of these threats, as it sits on the right side of the storm.

Picture: WPC rainfall forecast

The other dangerous part about this stalling hurricane is the incredible amount of rainfall it will produce over a very large area.  Honestly, this may end up being the major story of hurricane Florence when it is all said and done.  The photo above shows the WPC prediction for total rainfall accumulation after the hurricane passes- and this likely could be underestimated.  This is a LIFE ALTERING flooding and flash flooding situation across parts of both North and South Carolina.  This does not simply end when the hurricane passes, as water will flow into rivers and streams likely creating issues for weeks to come.

Bottom line: No matter the location or intensity of hurricane Florence at landfall, effects expand well beyond the center as this is a MASSIVE storm and extreme flooding is likely in portions of the Carolinas.  If you or someone you know happens to live within the NHC cone or other areas in the Carolinas prone to flooding, convince them to evacuate from the coast or move to higher ground if at all possible!  If they plan on staying behind, hurricane preparations should be rushed to completion as Florence approaches:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php

 

The remnants of Florence will need to be watched carefully in the coming days, as they could move inland and affect Bowling Green weather.  Stay tuned to your local TV meteorologists, the NWS, and our blog for more information in the coming days!

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Cooling Effect

Good afternoon WKU!

Conditions started out in the mid 50’s causing a slight risk of patchy fog out there this morning. Skies are partly sunny due to upper level heights in the atmosphere but clouds will increase as the day dwells. A rather cooling effect on the conditions today with high temperatures in the low 70s. A calming northern breeze at the surface keeps weather conditions dry and breezy this afternoon.

So, no rain to consider, today is rather an ideal day for your Tuesday excluding the low clouds. Segments of clouds and sun throughout the Mid-South region will be the theme this week. Model guides in the upper level unveiling southeastern moisture being pumped into the eastern coast due to such tropical activity in the Atlantic ocean. Convectional heating this afternoon will juice up those dew points for over night into Wednesday morning.

Mostly cloudy skies tonight with a Low in the upper 50’s. A bit nippy at night time so be sure to dress accordingly to the weather. I’d suggest a longsleeve shirt or pants… even both! Temperatures warm up to low 80’s for Wednesday with partly cloudy skies as well.

Here’s my forecast…

Today: Partly cloudy skies with segments of Sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70’s and a Low in the low 60’s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with an overnight Low in the upper 50’s.

Tomorrow: Partly sunny with temporary clouds. Highs in the low 80’s, Lows in the mid 60’s.

 

 

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Below Average: Not Always a Bad Thing

A week in weather can bring about drastic changes, especially during the transition from one season to another. Last Monday we experienced a high of 93. Today, the cold front from this weekend combined with the associated dense cloud cover have prevented us from even reaching 70. It will stay near or below 70 for the rest of the day considering peak heating is almost behind us. Nighttime temps will be matching our dewpoint temps at one or two degrees below or above 60 for South Central Kentucky, so the potential for fog is definitely possible over the next couple nights. For now, the oppressive summertime heat and humidity have given way to more fall-like conditions… but as usual, things change.

The following image depicts highs in the mid 70s for Tuesday. Note the High Pressure over Northern Indiana. The positioning of this High will keep our temperatures below average as winds associated with it come from a mainly northeasterly direction and bring in cool air.

12Z NAM Valid for 1 pm CDT Tuesday – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

 

In combination with the cool temperatures, low dewpoints will make for very comfortable conditions through Wednesday. A light jacket might be necessary for those who are naturally cool, especially during the early morning and late evening hours.

Cloud cover will remain prevalent through Wednesday morning. It’s not until Wednesday afternoon that we get a nice break in clouds, resulting in a little warm-up. As the week progresses, cloud cover will continue to decrease, temperatures will continue to increase, and conditions will return to average for the time of year.

While it will be very calm throughout the Commonwealth this week, it’s a much different story on the Eastern Seaboard where residents are preparing for a potential major hurricane. Hurricane Florence could cause catastrophic flooding over the Carolinas if it stalls out over N.C. as the models currently predict. While impacts from Hurricane Florence will be negligible for our area, our team will keep you updated on the storm throughout the week.

Florence Intensifies into Cat. 4 Hurricane, Threatens East Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tonight: Low of 60 with calm conditions, fog possible.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): A little warmer, but still below average. High of 76 with mostly cloudy conditions and a cool breeze out of the NE.

Wednesday: High near 80, mostly cloudy conditions continue for the first half of the day. Sunshine becoming more prevalent during the afternoon hours.

Thursday and onward: Seasonable temperatures return as cloud cover dissipates. Highs in the mid 80s.

 

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