WKU Meteorology

Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

WKU Meteorology - Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

Temperatures are falling!

The leaves are falling and so are the temperatures, at least for this week. Bowling Green is currently 60 degrees and overcast with a moderate northwest wind. An upper-level trough is positioned over the eastern U.S. and the associated cold front sits just to our south which can be seen in the NOAA Surface Analysis from 18z:

usfntsfcwbg

Temperatures have dropped significantly since yesterday when we saw a high of 82. Temperatures will continue to gradually cool down throughout the week with a high pressure system moving into the area, bringing sunny skies and cooler weather. The low pressure system responsible for the cold front that just moved through will continue circling to our north and will receive additional upper-level forcing later in the week that will give us another cold front late in the day on Friday. This cold front will bring already decreasing temperatures even lower and we could see temperatures very close to freezing Friday night into Saturday morning

gfsUS_sfc_temp_090

(GFS Surface Temps around midnight Friday)

Enjoy the cooler temperatures this week as we close out October with more fall-like weather. Have a great rest of the week!

Bowling Green’s 3-Day Forecast (NWS):

  • Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 64. Light west wind becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
  • Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
  • Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 60. Light and variable wind.
  • Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
  • Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
  • Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

 

 

 

Unseasonably warm today and tomorrow

Bowling Green is currently 76 degrees and sunny, with a light southwest wind. These temperatures are almost 10 degrees warmer than the average temperature for late October. According to climatology records, we could come close to breaking the record high temperature of 87 degrees (1919)  for October 27. The latest surface analysis from NOAA shows a nice high pressure system centered over Kentucky, which is responsible for the southerly wind flow here in Bowling Green. usfntsfcwbg

As seen in the figure, a warm front will begin making its way into the region tomorrow and we should see more humid air being funneled into Kentucky. Expect fog in low-lying areas tomorrow morning as low temperatures dip slightly below dewpoint. Tomorrow will be much more cloudy and unseasonably warm with a south wind becoming stronger in the afternoon.

Behind this warm front is an upper-level trough that will bring a low pressure system and associated cold front into the area on Tuesday. This will bring possible thunderstorms and heavy rain Tuesday afternoon. The upper-level trough will stay positioned over the eastern U.S. for most of the latter part of the week until a secondary jet streak begins to provide additional forcing that will deepen the trough even more and bring much cooler temperatures into the area. Until then, here’s what to expect for the early part of the week:

  • Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind.
  • Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight.
  • Monday: Sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
  • Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South wind around 11 mph.
  • Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 75. South wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
  • Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

 

 

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

This weekend will be gorgeous, with mostly sunny skies and temperature in the mid to upper 70’s. An area of high pressure sitting just to our south and east will continue to pump warm air from the south in our direction.

NWS Surface Map

NWS Surface Map

 

Today

We will see mostly sunny skies today with temperatures topping out around 70 degrees.

Tomorrow

The warming trend will continue for tomorrow, with temperatures warming into the mid 70’s. Sunny skies will once make for a nice day!

Rest of the Weekend into Next Week

By Sunday, temperatures will hover around 80 degrees. Notice all the warm air funneling into the central U.S in this map.

NAM Surface Temperatures Sunday Afternoon

NAM Surface Temperatures Sunday Afternoon

However, the warm temperatures and sunny skies will soon come to an end. A fairly meridional pattern setting up will bring a series of troughs sweeping across the area. The first trough doesn’t appear like it will dig as far south, but will still bring cooler temperatures and the chance for some rain and gusty winds.

GFS 500mb Wind Speeds Next Tuesday

GFS 500mb Wind Speeds Next Tuesday

 

This second trough may dig a bit deeper and bring even cooler air into the region. Rain will also be possible this go around.

gfsUS_500_spd_165

GFS 500mb Wind Speeds Next Thursday Night

Today through Sunday may be the best weekend to do your Fall leaves sight seeing! Leaves are not quite at their peak, but the temperatures will be warm and winds will be rather calm.

5 Day Forecast

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Light and variable wind.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Light and variable wind.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Light and variable wind.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunny Skies Continue

Today will be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low 60’s. Some clouds may try to work in early in the morning, especially to the east of Bowling Green. But overall, today will be a nice Fall day.

NWS Current Visible Satellite

NWS Current Visible Satellite

Sunny skies and a warming trend will continue into the weekend as a stubborn low pressure continues to move off the east coast. Our winds will start to shift more westerly to southwesterly by Friday, allowing warmer air to pump into the region.

NAM Temperatures Friday Afternoon

NAM Temperatures Friday Afternoon

A small ridge moving into the area later Saturday through the end of the weekend will allow for more sunny skies and temperatures to warm into the low 70’s. High temperatures for Saturday through next Tuesday look to remain in the low to mid 50’s. Get out and enjoy the week ahead. You may have to wait until next spring to find another week as pretty as this one will be.

5 Day Forecast

Today: Sunny, with a high near 62. North wind around 6 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Light northeast wind.

Thursday: Patchy frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Calm wind.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 69.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 73.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.

 

Quiet Weather Settling In

Today has been quite the Sunday, with calm winds, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the low 60’s. This sun has felt great after a period of mostly cloudy skies this past week or so. Tomorrow will feature a few small rain chances, but starting Tuesday, clear skies will be the main story.

A disturbance will move through the area tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will accompany this upper level low, but the best shot for rain will be just to our north and east.

21

NAM Simulated Reflectivity 10 AM Tomorrow

A cold front will swing through the state tomorrow evening and bring with it another shot for some light showers. Any shower activity will be light and many areas may not see rain at all. Once again the biggest threat for rain will be to our north and east.

NWS Surface Map Monday Evening

NWS Surface Map Monday Evening

Behind that front will be an area of high pressure settling in. This will keep the area mostly sunny and dry for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will remain near average for this time of year. Here is the 6 – 10 day probability of below average precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center, with Bowling Green in the greater than 60% chance for below average precip.

CPC Probability of Below Average Precipitation

CPC Probability of Below Average Precipitation

 

5 Day Forecast

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Light and variable wind.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Light northwest wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind 3 to 5 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 59.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 62.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

 

Crisp Autumn Week Ahead

The clouds hung around a little longer than expected after that cold front moved through last night.  Tomorrow, however, will be a clearer as high pressure continues to build in from the west and sunny skies become more prominent.  Despite the sunshine, temperatures will not be much warmer.

Map of temperature departure from average courtesy of Intellicast.

We are still under a rather cold air mass, so our high temperatures will once again only make it into the low 60s.  As shown in the graphic above, that is about 10° below what would be considered normal or average for this time of year.  Similarly, our low temperatures are going to be dipping into the upper 30s where they would normally be in the mid-40s.  So, although it may look warm and sunny tomorrow, you will probably want to grab a light jacket because it will be a bit on the cool side.

Surface forecast map for the morning of Monday, October 20th courtesy of Intellicast.

Looking ahead, we do still have a slight chance for showers on Monday.  As shown in the graphic above, a weak cold front will be moving through, but much of the rain will be to our north.  However, there is another high pressure system that will be following right behind it.  So, our overall weather pattern will be much of the same for at least the first half of the week.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 38°, and light winds out of the north.

Tomorrow:  Sunny skies, highs near 62°, and light winds out of the north.

Tomorrow Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 40°, and calm winds.

Beautiful Weather for the Weekend

It has been a gorgeous day today!  As shown in the graphic below, it is still a rather comfortable 65° in Bowling Green, and high temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s across the area.  A dry cold front will be moving through this evening, and a drier cooler air mass is moving in right behind it.  So, tonight will be rather chilly, and tomorrow will not be quite as warm today.

hightemp

High Temperature Map Courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet

Although it will be a bit cooler, this weekend will still be beautiful!  High pressure is also going to build in from the west and keep our weather clear for a few days.  So, we have mostly clear skies and brisk autumn air to look forward to for the weekend.

Looking ahead, we have a slight chance for showers on Monday.  However, the pattern for the next few days looks to be fairly consistent with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows dipping into the 40s and even upper 30s.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the northwest at around 3-5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Partly cloudy skies, highs near 62°, and winds out of the northwest at around 5-8 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Mostly clear skies, lows near 37°, and light winds out of the NNW.

Clear Conditions Ahead

It has been a rainy first half of the week here in Bowling Green, but it has also been a rainy first half to the month.  We have already had almost 5 inches of rain in just this first half of October, and over half of that fell this week! So, some clearer conditions are definitely overdue.  The good news is that that is exactly what we have in store for this weekend.

250

250 mb map courtesy of Ohio State University Wx

The low that brought us so many days of rain will continues to become cutoff and push off to the northeast and off the coast.  Then, as shown in the 250 mb map above, a more zonal upper level flow is going to settle in and clear conditions are going to dominate much of the US.  We will have a weak cold front move through on Friday afternoon and evening, but it is not expected to bring us any rain.

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Fri 18Z

Surface map courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center

As we be take a break from all this rain, you will not be needing your umbrella this weekend.  However, you may want to keep your jacket handy.  Our average high temperature for mid-October is 71°.  Tomorrow we are actually going to exceed that, but this weekend we will be back down into the 60s.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Mostly clear skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the south at around 3-5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Mostly sunny skies, highs near 77°, and winds out of the SSW at around 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the northwest at around 3-5 mph.

Weekend Outlook

Bowling Green is currently 66 degrees and cloudy, with the cold front sitting just to our south. This front brought much needed rain to the area last night and even caused slight wind damage in some areas. The Kentucky Mesonet measured a rain total of 0.48 inches from the system that went through last night. Below is a map of the precipitation accumulations due to this passing cold front (Courtesy weather.cod.edu).

rapUS_sfc_precacc_007

Bowling Green will remain cloudy today and is expected to reach a high of 74 degrees. The clouds will begin moving out of the region late tonight and a fast moving high pressure system will make its way across the southern U.S. We’ll be on the cool side of this high pressure tomorrow, with winds coming out of the north and an expected high temperature of 62. It will be a beautiful weekend for being outdoors, so enjoy it while you can! We see our next opportunity for rain chances early next week, as another front moves through the region.

Have a fantastic weekend!

Bowling Green’s Weekend Forecast (NOAA):

  • Today: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 74. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
  • Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 40. West wind 7 to 13 mph.
  • Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 62. West wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
  • Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Light southwest wind increasing to 9 to 14 mph in the morning.
  • Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.

 

 

What to expect over Fall Break

Bowling Green is currently 80 degrees and sunny. Temperatures will only get hotter throughout the day, as we are expected to reach a high of 87 today. These temperatures are much warmer than normal, but there is a blast of anticipated relief headed our way! Below is the NAM 250 mb wind and height map for early Friday morning. The upper-level trough will begin digging into the lower U.S. more than we originally thought earlier in the week. As a result, we will see much cooler temperatures this weekend when the cold front moves through.

namUS_250_spd_048

Both the GFS and NAM are in agreement with the timing of this cold front moving through our area. Late Thursday night, the front will start moving through Kentucky and will pass through Bowling Green overnight. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely with this cold front. The NAM Simulated Reflectivity for around midnight on Thursday shows the leading edge of the front right on the border of Kentucky. namUS_sfc_radar_042

After this front passes, temperatures will cool drastically. Saturday will be gorgeous with a forecasted high of around 62 degrees and a low Saturday night of around 40 degrees. Below is the NAM 2m Temperature map Saturday morning after the front has passed.

namUS_sfc_temp_072

This weather will make for a soggy end to the week and a beautiful weekend! Have a wonderful Fall Break!

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast (NOAA):

  • Today: High of 87, sunny.
  • Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Light southeast wind.
  • Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning.
  • Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Low around 67. South wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Friday: Showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 75. South wind 11 to 17 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
  • Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 62.
  • Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.
  • Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
  • Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.