Improving Conditions for the Week

Many woke up this morning to ice covering much of their property and a winter weather advisory. The advisory will continue until 12 pm today. There is a trough line passing through the area this morning.

 

Along with the front end of that trough was the wintry precipitation that we woke up to.

Now that that line has moved through the area conditions will improve. We still will likely see some wintry mix throughout the day. Monday and Tuesday see some clouds but no precipitation as a high pressure system comes into the area. HRRR has about .05 inches. RAP at .06 inches,  NAM .06 inches, NAM NEST .09 inches, and GFS at .06 inches.

SUMMARY:

  • Sunday:
    • High: 38
    • Low: 23
    • There will continue to be a wintry mix throughout the day. An overall total for precipitation will be less than a quarter of an inch across the area.
  • Monday:
    • High: 40
    • Low: 21
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 43
    • Low: 24

 

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Winter Weekend?

Surface Map (Source: COD)

 

A new storm system will make its way through the southeastern parts of the US, bringing rain, snow, and possibly a wintry mix for those areas. The storm will make tracks through this area Saturday, but for Bowling Green’s case, the storm will come through Saturday afternoon. Before we discuss the storm’s impact on Bowling Green, Saturday will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-30’s, and low’s in low 30’s.

The above map shows the possible precipitation type that we may encounter for our weekend. Overall, the storm system will likely graze us with snow Saturday, but will resume Sunday with mixed precipitation. If you must drive these days, remember to do so carefully as there is always a possibility of slippery roads when encountering winter weather. For those with wishful thinking that Monday will have school closures for WKU, it will be very unlikely since highs for Sunday will be in the lower 40’s and lows will be in the lower 30’s. Always study for your final exams!

For the first day of exams on Monday, we are looking at cloudy conditions again, with possible clearing overnight on Tuesday. Highs will be in the lower 40’s and lows will be in the lower 30’s.

Forecast:

Saturday: 50% chance of snow, otherwise cloudy; High, 35, Low: 31

Sunday: 70% chance of mixed precipitation; High: 41, Low: 32

Monday: Cloudy skies, clearing overnight; High: 40, Low: 30

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Confusing Wintry-Weekend Ahead

Greetings!

Pearl Habor was 77 years ago, so please take a moment of silence for those we lost that tragic day….

Now for the ever-changing forecast. A cold front moved through the area Thursday night. Leaving thick low-level clouds, the northerly flow is bringing really cold air to the area, with later in the day north of Bowling Green Parkway will be sunny. Friday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the upper 20s with winds ranging from 3-6 mph coming from the north or northeast.

A surface high pressure is sitting over the Ohio Valley this weekend, while at the same time there is an upper-level low pressure that will shoot from Mississippi River Valley to the coast. Impacting Tennessee and Carolinas, there are some trends showing Southern and maybe central Kentucky will see some impacts from this system. The timing for Kentucky will most likely be Saturday evening to Sunday afternoon. There is still a lot of uncertainties who is going to get how much, but as of right now along and south of the Cumberland Parkway could see half an inch to one inch of snow. With lesser amounts north of the Bluegrass Parkway. It is still unknown what type of precipitation that will have the most impact. with the low-level jet to the right of the entrance region of the upper-level jet, there is potential for a warm nose around the Cumberland Parkway that could stay till Sunday afternoon.

As of Right now, the NAM 12z is calling for an inch of snow across central and Southern Kentucky. Which means there could be a wintry mix with some accumulating ice.

Summary:

Friday: mostly clear a high of 39 and low of 29 winds 3-6 miles per hour.

Saturday: High of 39 with winds 6-10 miles per hour with gust around 20 miles per hour. With a low of 31. medium chance of precipitation with snow accumulation around 1 to 2 inches.

Sunday: Rain and snow likely with a chance of freezing rain before mid-afternoon. Then switching to snow and wintry mix throughout the day.  This could bring another half inch of snow. Finally clearing out Sunday night.

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Storm System to Impact the Area this Weekend

Good afternoon Folks!!

Forecasters around the area have been keeping their eyes on a potential storm system that could impact the region heading into the weekend. I will dive into the details on that later on in this post!

High pressure over the southeastern part of the United States will continue to drift eastward off the southeast coast during the afternoon and evening hours later on today. This will keep the area mostly dry throughout the day. Winds will ramp up from the SE throughout the day, which will help temperatures rebound back up into the middle 40s. A weaker cold front will drift southeastward across the area during the evening and overnight hours. This will give the Bowling Green area a slight chance of a rain/snow mix during the overnight hours. Temperatures for tonight will dip back down into the lower 30s right around the freezing mark.

High pressure will build in across the region heading into Friday, leaving the area with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. High temperatures on Friday will rise close to the 40° mark. Temperatures during the nighttime hours will fall back into the upper 20s across southern Kentucky.

A relatively strong shortwave trough will continue to develop across the southwest and move into the Texas Panhandle heading into Saturday morning. Rapid cyclogenesis (Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere) will strengthen the shortwave into an area of low pressure as it crosses the state of TX.

Below: 500mb Relative Vorticity, 12/06/18 09Z – 12/09/18 18Z

The video above shows the spin or rotation of air at 500mb ( ~18,000 ft above the surface). This area of low pressure will continue to move across the south throughout the weekend and move off the coast early next week. While that happens, a strong mid-level disturbance will track towards the SE across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley throughout the weekend. The area of low pressure passing off to our south throughout this weekend has the chance of bringing potentially significant winter weather across the area. Overall model guidance is in agreement with each other with the possibility of winter weather across the region.

Overall confidence in a storm system impacting the area throughout this weekend remains high but, the confidence in the evolution, potential impact, and track of the storm system stays relatively low.

Below: Composite Reflectivity, Precipitation Type, 12/07/18 09Z – 12/09/18 18Z

REMEMBER, the animation above is only one model output!!

For further updates on this potential winter storm, tune into WKU Meteorology Blog, White Squirrel WX, or NWS Louisville.

Forecast

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies, high near 44°. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, gusts up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Slight chance of rain/snow showers, low of 31°. Light winds shift from W to N throughout the night.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies, high temperature right around 40°. Slight breeze from the N.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy skies, low temperature of 28°. Slight breeze from the NE.

Saturday: Slight chance of rain in the afternoon, mixing with snow during the evening hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies, high temperature right around 37°. Winds out of the NE at 5-10 mph.

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snOMG??!!

You’ve heard it by now- Cardi B and Offset are divorcing.

 

Kidding!  What I’m really talking about is the winter storm potential for this weekend.  It’s already been all over the news (and likely your newsfeeds as well).  My recommendation? Keep calm, and pay attention to professional meteorologists as both experience and knowledge trumps your local hype man on twitter.  Or your phone app.

Before we even make it to the weekend, we could see a dusting across the region Thursday evening as an upper level disturbance slides through.  This shouldn’t be a big deal as the 12z NAM illustrates:

As the weekend draws near, it is becoming more apparent that a winter storm will impact the U.S.. North Carolina (and skiers/snowboarders alike) must be getting really excited, as models have been pretty consistent with high snowfall rates for areas near and east of the Appalachian mountains.  Why?  An effect known as “Cold Air Damming” will likely help increase snowfall accumulation during this event.  CAD occurs when high pressure to the north forces cold air down the eastern side of the mountains.  Since cold air is dense, it will fail to make it up the higher elevations of the blue ridges.  It is instead forced to stay where it is.  This, in combination with a winter storm, is a recipe for fun times at the ski resort (if the roads aren’t covered in ice, that is!).

Since KY doesn’t have mountains as high in elevation as the Appalachians, we don’t have to deal with Cold Air Damming.  Nevertheless, this is a significant system with a great boom or bust potential for our region.  Slight changes in the path of this storm overall could be the difference between heavy snow and cold rain.  It is important to remember winter weather forecasts are tough to get exactly right much further than 2-3 days away from the event.  Here is the 18z GFS: 

It is far too early to begin talking numbers, but it is becoming increasingly likely that portions of our region will receive significant accumulations of wintry weather.  Models, such as the 18z GFS, are showing the signals for a mixed bag of winter weather possibly ending as accumulating snow.  Let’s all take a deep breath and watch this one closely over the next few days.  Stay up to date with our blog, as well as the NWS and local TV meteorologists for the latest!

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Snowy Tuesday

Good evening, Mid-South!

A bit of snow and mixing rain we got a chance to see out there for your Tuesday. Bowling Green received about 0.04″ of rain and a trace of snow up to this afternoon. After today you might be asking when will it snow again, and how much? Well to confirm this idea wouldn’t be fact but merely an opinion, but I’d be glad to share my concluding forecast.

Trend wise there is a distinctive surface high to the southwest of us creating a ginormous jet streak in the upper air from the northwest. While rising heights with the surface High in the OK/TX panhandle there will be overcasting skies throughout your Wednesday. This is due to the converging winds associated with the upper level jet. A shortwave Low, that was responsible for bringing that mix of snow and rain will surely move eastward and bring E. Ky trouble overnight and into Wednesday. Although, an overcasting view of skies doesn’t declare that we’ll certainly get rain for chances will be more valid in the morning before 7am… the peakedness of moisture. But however, due to moisture extraction with the high leveled atmosphere, rain chances drop to 10% with gradual clearing. 

For Thursday, the pattern here is similar to what we’ve seen for fall. A fast paced trough with an arctic flow diving into the Great Plains into the Midwest region where it meets an stable air mass in the South/Southwest to create saturation. I think conditions will be favorable for light snow but for Mid-South it isn’t so much so. Chances for snow will be more prevalent in the northern counties where the most amount of shear will take place. I wouldn’t expect more than the amount we received Tuesday: trace amount (0.00″) at a 30% chance.

WED: 35/29… Overcasting skies early on with a slight chance for a stray shower or two before 7am. Clearing gradually with a breezy wind from the North. Rain chances decrease afternoon.

THURS: 44/31… Partly sunny with an increase of humidity for the area. Chances of snow/rain mix between 1pm and 6pm are 30%. Trace values are expected for counties more closer to the OH Valley

 

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Back to the Cold

After a really nice shot of warmth this past weekend, prepare to dive back into cold temperatures. To quickly put it into perspective, the high temps over the next few days won’t even be as high as the low temps from this past weekend. While the temperatures will be decreasing, the rain/snow flurry chances will be increasing slightly during the next 48 hours. Louisville is already seeing a few of these light showers that should be moving further south along I-65 in our direction tonight. While there are no expected travel impacts at this point, it never hurts to use a little extra caution when on the roads.

Cloudy conditions will persist throughout the rest of the day with the introduction of scattered drizzles throughout the night. Temps will drop below freezing overnight, leading to possible scattered flurries.

Any leftover flurries will turn back to a light rainy drizzle around noon Tuesday and remain that way until the sun sets. At that point, those drizzles will turn back to flurries before moving out of the Commonwealth entirely. Daytime temperatures won’t make it out of the 30s. Any drizzle/flurries will be very hit or miss. No travel delays are expected.

We’ll see much clearer sky conditions as high pressure starts building in to the Southeastern US Wednesday. Those clear conditions will continue overnight and allow for temps to drop even deeper into the 20s by Thursday morning.

Temperatures as depicted by the 12Z GFS from noon Monday to 6am Thursday. -Courtesy Pivotal Weather

 

Today: High of 45, cloudy, increasing rain/flurry chances overnight.

Tomorrow: Waking up to a cool 31 degrees! On and off flurry and rain chances throughout the day. High of 41.

Wednesday: Sunrise temp of 28, so bundle up! Mainly sunny with a high of 39.

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Back to Winter

Friday and Saturday saw some very interesting weather. Friday there was thick fog in the area with visibility as low as .5 miles near Elizabethtown. Tornado warnings were released for Oklahoma and Missouri. Saturday with snow in Nebraska (6 inches in Omaha) and Iowa along with 22 reported tornadoes in Illinois. Locally, yesterday was a stormy day with high a high of 62.

Unfortunatly, temperatures will dropping again as we go through the day and remain that way through the week. The first cold front has already passed through the area and another one is crossing into western Kentucky at the moment. As these fronts come through we are seeing some very heavy winds with maximum wind at 34 mph. A wind advisory is out until 6 pm. Gusts could be as high as 45 mph so please be careful.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif

Satellites show very little in the area because of the fronts. Something cool that can be seen on the satellite is the boundaries for the fronts. Check out how the satellite compares to the surface map.

GOES 16 satellite

Other than colder temperatures, Monday looks like it will be uneventful. There will some clouds in the sky as rain and snow chances for Tuesday arrive, but that is about it.

Looking at the model comparison and other data for Tuesday, snow appears more likely than rain. Now before everyone heads out to stock up on food, any snow we get will be nothing more than flurries.

Model comparison of Tuesday’s precipitation at its peak

Other than being cold, the start to this week will be uneventful.

SUMMARY:

  • Sunday:
    • High: 66
    • Low: 35
  • Monday:
    • High: 45
    • Low: 32
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 39
    • Low: 27
    • A few flurries are possible. I would not completely count out a sprinkle or two if the temperature permits.

Stay safe and have a good week everyone! For those WKU students: 10 more school days left. Hang in there!

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Short-Lived Warmth for Your Weekend

Surface Map (Source: COD)

A new mid-latitude storm system will pass through this weekend, bringing rain for the Bowling Green area and for most of Kentucky. We will be warmer though, with highs into the lower mid-60’s and lows in the mid-50’s for our Saturday. Sunday will still be warm, but it will be much quieter in terms of precipitation. Highs will be in the low 60’s, and lows will be in the upper-40’s.

6Z GFS SLP & Precipitation (Source: COD)

As our weekend concludes, so does the warmth. A cold front will pass for early Monday morning, bringing our high’s down to the mid-40’s, and our lows will be in the mid-30’s. Like Sunday, Monday will be more quiet. However, cloudiness will increase as Monday progresses.

Forecast:

Saturday: Periods of rain throughout the day; High: 61, Low: 56

Sunday: Periods of clouds and sun, High: 62, Low: 49

Monday: Increasing cloudiness, High: 46, Low: 36

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A Warm Weekend Ahead

Greetings!

Friday is the start of a wet next couple of days. As a warm front moves into the area bring WAA which will allow the high to be in the low 60s today. However, there is a sufficient amount of moisture available  mixed with a weak cold front near western Kentucky and it will confine the precipitation  from falling in parts of Kentucky. there will still be stratus clouds which will still make today seem gloomy. Into the night, a rush of low-level moisture associated with the warm front with spark showers over the area around 8-9 pm central time. There is plentiful amounts of rain available around 03z, 9pm CST according to 06z GFS. The temperatures will not fall much tonight. Rain will continue Saturday morning and will continue till about 3pm when dry area moves above the surface, but there will still be a small chance through the evening but clearing out before the day ends. There is little to no severe threat Saturday to Saturday evening with low instability

Sunday looks to be dry with winds from the south west with some god mixing could lead to gust from the tight pressure gradient  with a low to the north of the area. With a cold front moving into the area with the beginning of the weak we will see temperatures below average for this time of year.

Summary:

Friday: 61/56 Great chance of rain thorough-out the day greater at night

Saturday: 55/49 Chance of rain mostly morning through evening

Sunday: 65/40 Sunny

Monday: 48/33

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