WKU Meteorology

Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

WKU Meteorology - Discussion of Mid-South weather and climate and information about the WKU Meteorology program

Rainy Weather Ahead

Currently in Bowling Green it is a beautiful 77 degrees with a SW wind at 8 mph. The past few days have been beautiful and springlike, but a rapid cool down is on its way and will continue through the weekend before temperatures warm back up next week. A cold front will be moving through the region bringing thunderstorms and rain tonight and tomorrow. A severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the overnight hours tonight. Thursdays temperatures are going to rapidly drop, as we will see the days high temperature early in the morning. Rain is also on table for Thursday afternoon.  If you are planning to go outside tomorrow, pack an umbrella and a jacket because it will be cold and wet. The rain will push out Thursday night and low temperatures in the mid to upper twenties will consume the region for the next few days. The weekend looks to be cold as well, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s, but we will be seeing a warm up on Sunday through early next week.

Surface currents courtesy of NOAA

5 Day Outlook:

Wednesday Night: 50% chance of thunderstorms, low of 58 degrees.

Thursday: 80% chance of showers, a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. High of 59 degrees.

Thursday Night: 30% chance of showers, ending during the overnight hours. Low of 36 degrees.

Friday: Partly sunny. High of 46 degrees,

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, low of 26 degrees.

Saturday: Sunny, high of 45 degrees.

Saturday Night: Clear, low of 27 degrees.

Sunday: Sunny, high of 59 degrees.

Weekend Preview

Bowling Green is currently 47 degrees with winds out of the northeast. SPC radar shows scattered rain showers throughout much of the state. These showers will soon exit the region and be replaced with a high pressure system. Winds will shift and become more southerly later in the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures just in time for any outdoor activities on Saturday.

blogradar

Tomorrow is officially the first day of Spring and hopefully the end of winter weather. The last few days have been a little chillier compared to last weekend where we saw 70 degree temperatures and sunshine. This weekend looks to be almost as nice with temperatures warming once again and the sun making an appearance on Saturday. The NAM Surface Temperatures for Saturday afternoon look to be very comfortable, with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s.

blogsattemp

Sunday will be similar with highs in the lower 60s and partly sunny skies. Be sure to enjoy your weekend as Spring has finally arrived!

Bowling Green 5-Day Forecast:

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly after 11pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 47. Light and variable wind.
Friday: A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly before 10am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 59. Light west wind becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68. Light west wind.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Light and variable wind.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 62.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.

A beautiful week ahead

Bowling Green is currently 62 degrees and sunny according to the Kentucky Mesonet. Temperatures are on the rise today thanks to a high pressure system positioned to our south. The NAM Surface Temperatures for mid-afternoon today show 70 degree weather filtering all the way into the Great Lakes region, with parts of the Midwest reaching 80!

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A cold front will move through the area Tuesday morning, as seen in the NWS Surface Analysis below. Skies will be overcast for the majority of the day Tuesday and some areas could see scattered rain showers.

blog1

Temperatures will begin cooling throughout the week and high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Current model runs suggest another chance of rain on Thursday. As a high pressure system moves in during the later part of the week, we should see temperatures start to rise back into the 60s for the weekend.

Enjoy this beautiful weather and have a great week!

Bowling Green’s 5-Day Forecast:

Today: Sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66. West wind 5 to 11 mph becoming north in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 56.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Rain Clears out for a Fantastic Start to the Week

Saturday

Rain showers will stick around for much of the day Saturday into the evening hours. The WPC shows another inch of rain will be possible early Saturday morning through the afternoon.

WPC Day 1 Precipitation Outlook

WPC Day 1 Precipitation Outlook

It won’t be an all day rain like several days this week, but make sure to pack an umbrella!

Sunday

High pressure builds into the region Sunday. This will help the morning clouds to clear and the sun to dominate all afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 60’s! Break out those backyard barbecues.

NWS Surface Map Sunday

NWS Surface Map Sunday

Monday

Monday will be warm once again. Thanks to the high pressure, temperatures will warm into the low 70’s with mostly sunny skies.

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Weekly Outlook

Saturday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. High near 60. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North wind around 6 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Light and variable wind.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 70.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Thursday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Friday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

Warm and Wet Weather on the Way

Today

After a long run of cold and snowy weather, the warmth has returned! Many areas across the region are in the low 60’s. Get out and enjoy the weather today because tomorrow we will see a wet pattern settle into the region.

Monday

Temperatures will still be rather warm Monday afternoon, but clouds will overtake the region out ahead of a rain maker moving in from the south west. This week will be predominantly rainy. However temperatures will be warm, keeping conditions from being completely awful.

The 7 day rainfall outlook shows much of the region could see over 3 inches by next weekend. Grab your rain jacket.

WPC 7 Day Rainfall Outlook

WPC 7 Day Rainfall Outlook

 

Remainder of the week:

With the exception of Wednesday, every day will be quite rainy! If you are planning any outdoor activities this week, save them for Wednesday! High temperatures will climb into the low 60’s once again with partly sunny skies.

5 Day Outlook:

Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. South wind 3 to 5 mph.

Monday Night: Rain, mainly after 10pm. Low around 45. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Rain. High near 55. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 47. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Thursday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 49.

 

Winter Storm Warning for Bowling Green

A Winter Storm Warning was issued for Warren county, KY and will be in effect from noon on Wednesday until Noon on Thursday. 

 

Currently in Bowling Green it is 61 degrees with winds from the southwest at 7 mph. A cold front is slowly approaching the region, which will cause temperatures to gradually decrease throughout the early morning hours into tomorrow afternoon. Rain is expected during the day tomorrow, and local flooding may occur as the NWS has issued a Flood Warning for tomorrow afternoon. Once the temperatures reach the freezing level, precipitation will gradually switch over from rain to snow. Sleet accumulations as well as freezing rain accumulations of .25 inches can be expected before the precipitation completely changes over to snow tomorrow evening into the overnight hours.

Graphical depiction of the weather story for today.

Above is the latest Weather forecast Graphic from NWS Louisville. Since the Bowling Green area is farther south, the switch over to frozen precipitation will be later than the rest of the state. Current snow totals displayed  on the map are not final due to the fact that there still is some forecast uncertainty regarding how much snow will accumulate. Stay tuned to the blog for a forecast update tomorrow afternoon for more accurate snowfall totals.

After this system pushes eastward, we will see a dramatic fall in temperatures due to colder air entering the region. Subzero temperatures are possible in some portions of the region, and record lows for March are possible through the end of this week.

Wednesday: Rain in the early hours changing over to a wintry mix in the early afternoon. High of 48 which will be recorded in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Temperatures will gradually drop the day. Chance of Precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday Night: Snow, which could be locally heavy at times. Low Around 20 degrees. Chance of Precipitation is 100%

Thursday: Chance of snow in the morning, cloudy and cold. High of 25 degrees.  Wind chill values can be seen in the single digits throughout the day. Chance of precipitation 60%.

Thursday Night: Cold and clear. Low of 6 degrees.

Friday: Sunny, high near 31 degrees.

Friday Night: Clear, Low near 15 degrees.

Saturday: Sunny, high near 40 degrees.

Saturday night: Cloudy, low near 26 degrees.

Sunday: Sunny, high near 43 degrees.

A look at this weekend’s forecast

Bowling Green is currently 33 degrees according to the Kentucky Mesonet. Radar shows snow showers in northern Kentucky moving south, so we could potentially see a dusting of snow this evening.

snow1

A cold front passed through earlier today and the temperatures will continue to drop tonight and tomorrow as high pressure moves into the region.  While we remain east of the center of high pressure, we will experience colder temperatures, with lows tonight dropping below 20. This high pressure will move to the east Friday and Saturday. The NAM 2-meter surface temperature for Saturday morning shows very cold arctic air to our north as this high pressure moves eastward.

nam cold temps

Saturday and Sunday we can expect temperatures to warm up as winds become more southerly. Models are showing a stationary front starting to develop late Saturday into Sunday which will keep skies overcast and giving us a chance for rain. The WPC Surface Analysis for Sunday shows this stationary front stretching across the country.

surface sunday

It will be nice to have a brief warm-up this weekend. Though it is still 5 days out, Tuesday of next week looks to be a peek at spring with highs in the 60s and a chance of thunderstorms. This could all change with new model outputs, so be sure to check back soon for another update!

Have a fantastic weekend!

Bowling Green’s 5-Day Forecast:

  • Tonight: A chance of flurries, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wind chill values as low as 9. North wind 6 to 9 mph.
  • Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Wind chill values as low as 9. North wind around 8 mph.
  • Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Wind chill values as low as 7. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
  • Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 39. East wind 6 to 8 mph.
  • Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
  • Sunday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 48.
  • Sunday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Monday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 44.
  • Monday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Tuesday: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

 

 

 

More cold, but nothing like last week!

Last week was quite the week for record-breaking cold and snow, as well as icing, flooding, and significant rain totals to finish up the weekend. To recap on some of the memorable events last week, Bowling Green received 9.6 inches of snow after the snow event on Monday, February 16th. The last time Bowling Green saw this much snow was March of 1968. Low temperatures broke records with -7 degrees on Thursday, February 19th and -4 degrees on Friday, February 20th. After additional accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain Friday through Sunday, the 2-day total for precipitation amounts for Bowling Green were around 2.5 inches, not including the already existing snow pack.

2-Day precip

The jet streams have been in a very active pattern for the last few weeks and look to continue on this way for the foreseeable future. The 250mb winds, with North America positioned at the bottom center of the globe, show a meridional pattern over most of the northern hemisphere. As long as the jet streams remain in this pattern, we should continue to see interesting weather.

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As for the weather this week, we have another upper-level trough swinging through bringing more arctic air into the region. A high pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley region during the early part of the week, meaning we should see more sunshine and calm conditions. The NAM Surface Map for Monday morning shows this high pressure system off to the west and northerly winds in our area. NAM 2-23 12Z

Fortunately, it looks as if this week will be nothing like last week in terms of precipitation, however, we can’t seem to shake the cold. So bundle up and check back later in the week for an update on the weekend!

Bowling Green’s 5-Day Forecast

  •  Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as 1. North wind 8 to 11 mph.
  • Monday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as 1. North wind 7 to 11 mph.
  • Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
  • Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Wind chill values as low as 6. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
  • Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.
  • Wednesday Night: Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
  • Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.
  • Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7.

 

Bowling Green Post Winter Storm

The current snow depth across much of the state is impressive to say the least! Bowling Green saw one of its largest snow events in a single day. Depending on the official snow depth, the 10 inches of snow that fell yesterday would be the largest since the 1960’s.

Here is a look at the U.S snow cover.

nsm_depth_2015021705_National

 

 

That much snow has a big impact on temperatures! Here is what the temperatures were around 7 am this morning. We are talking near record lows!

Capture

 

Today: High 22, Low 18

The snow pack will keep temperatures from warming too much, even with the sun shining all day. Even with the temperatures so cold, the sun mixed with temperatures in the low 20’s will allow decent melting on the main roads today. Even so, only head out in case of an emergency. Most roads are still virtually impassable, and multiple vehicles are abandoned on the sides of roads all across the city.

With that being said, we have another shot at snow tonight and tomorrow. A clipper system could bring 1 to 2 inches of dry snow to the region to add to our current snow depth. This would once again make the morning commute for Wednesday extremely treacherous.

nam4kmCGP_prec_radar_021

NAM 4k Simulated Reflectivity at 3 am Wednesday

The NAM models are spitting out anywhere from .1 to .3 inches of moisture with this clipper. With snow ratios of 15:1 or 20:1 that could mean 1 to 3 inches of snow across the area. However, the air is dry and part of that may not reach the ground.

Wednesday: High temperatures will be a tad bit cooler than Tuesday. Snow squalls will be a concern throughout much of the day with the passing of the cold front. A snow squall, while rather isolated, can drop heavy snow in a short amount of time, and everything that falls will stick. Here is a look at the NAM 4k once again showing the potential for scattered squalls tomorrow.

nam4kmCGP_prec_radar_033

NAM 4k Simulated Reflectivity at 3 pm Wednesday

Some areas may see 2 to 3 inches of snow by tomorrow evening if they pick up snow with both the clipper and snow squalls. A general 1 to 3 inches of snow looks like a good bet for most people through tomorrow evening.

Record low temperatures will be heading our way by late week along with another storm by the weekend. This storm continues to look more and more like a rain make, but it has the chance to start out as snow.

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as 8. West wind 3 to 8 mph.

Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as 4. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 2pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind 8 to 16 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -21. West wind 6 to 11 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. West wind 7 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -2.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 27.

Friday Night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

 

Winter Storm Warning for Bowling Green

Sunday – High 24: Sunday Night – Low 21

A major Winter Storm is headed toward south central Kentucky, with Bowling Green currently in the bulls-eye for model guidance snowfall accumulation. While the models have been all over the place the past several days, they have all trended toward generally the same solution.

The NWS Lousiville has issued a Winter Storm Warning for most of their coverage area. Here is the snowfall predictions from them.

NWS Snowfall Forecast

NWS Snowfall Forecast

I don’t see any reason to waiver from their forecast as it looks like this will most definitely be a potent storm system with heavy banded precipitation. Extremely heavy snow will fall at times and travel will be virtually impossible during the day Monday.

Timing: Snow will begin between 9 pm Sunday and 3 am Monday. It will last throughout much of the day Monday. The heaviest snow will fall from just before sunup til early afternoon.

Here is a look at the simulated reflectivity from the NAM model for 6pm tonight, 6am Monday and 12pm Monday. This particular model continues to bring the moisture in earlier then the rest ( by 6 tonighht ). The initial dry air may limit much from reaching the ground. But a heavier burst from the initial wave can certainly put a white layer down.

namSE_prec_radar_018 namSE_prec_radar_030 namSE_prec_radar_036

 

So why is Bowling Green in the bulls-eye for a major winter storm after not seeing a heavy snow in a long time??

Bowling Green is climatologically in a poor location for the track of the low pressure to combine with adequate cold air to allow for all snow systems. The difference with this system is the strong Arctic high that has helped cold air push much farther south than usual with this particular track of a low pressure. Another big player is the more zonal track of the system as opposed to the common SW to NE moving winter storms. Those will generally be all rain for Bowling Green and snow for places like Southern Indiana and North.

The rest of the week:

We have potential for light snow once again on Wednesday. Nothing major, but another light accumulation can add up with little snow melt because of the cold.

Another system looks poised to move into the region next weekend. This system bares watching as it also has ample cold air and moisture at hand.

 

5 Day Forecast

TodayIncreasing clouds and cold, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northeast wind around 7 mph.

Tonight: Snow, mainly after 2am. Low around 17. Wind chill values as low as 8. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Washington’s Birthday: Snow, mainly before 5pm. High near 26. Wind chill values as low as 9. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 8 inches.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. North wind 3 to 5 mph.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. West wind 3 to 7 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 18.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 18.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.