Flooding main concern

It’s taken a while but the thunderstorms along the leading edge of rain band have moved east of Bowling green. Rainfall totals have been over 9 inches at the mesonet site with the likelihood of flooding still high. To put this in perspective this is likely a once in 75 year event for the region. Additional rainfall should be under 1 inch of new rain by 5 pm when I expect the rain band to finally clear out. I’m sure Dr.Goodrich will some stats on this event sometime next week. In the meantime turn around, don’t drown.

Increasing threat of tornadic storms overnight

Multiple clusters of storms one over middle Tennessee near Nashville  and other over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee are prompting tornado warnings and some of the storms are showing signs of rotation. These potential tornadic storms will approach the region overnight. Be prepared to seek shelter if a tornado warning is issued. updates will be provided on this link overnight. I will be updating this link till 2 am then the STN director Ronnie leeper will be updating the site after 2 am.


flood advisory untill 10 pm

Around 3 inches of rain has fallen today which has already created some difficult travels with water covered roads. Thunderstorms should die down in the next hour or two. In Bowling Green we had 12 straight hours with the observations rain, hvy rain or a thunderstorm not sure what the max streak for consecutive hours is at Bowling Green for that.

However even though a lull is expected this evening, “a chance to study for my dynamic final on Wednesday” supercells are firing in Arkansas in response to the next impulse traveling northward along this stalled frontal boundary. The storm prediction center has increased the severe risk to moderate for the region overnight as these storms head toward Kentucky. Instability which has been in check all day may become more favorable for severe storms overnight according to the latest modeling . Tornadoes, small hail and gusty winds will be the main threat with overnight thunderstorms. Make sure you have a way to be notified if a tornado warning is issued overnight.  These storms will become more linear tomorrow morning and be very slow to move through the region tomorrow with more training of heavy showers and storms expected. This will lead to another flood threat by days end which should be more widespread than today.

round 1 rains more than expected, increased severe threat close to region

This is a  special saturday morning update. The cluster of storms I’m labeling round 1 has moved further south than anticipated stalling in Tenn. to the north of this thunderstorm complex heavy rain showers have been training over southern Kentucky resulting in widespread 1-2 inch totals already. This thunderstorm complex could lift back to the north this afternoon if this is the case more excessive rainfall is likely. thunderstorms may be severe as well with gusty winds and small hail and isolated tornadoes. The storm prediction center is highlighting areas just to southwest for another high risk event/ severe outbreak where instabilty values are more favorbale for severe weather. Over our region I’m expecting a similar outcome to last week that these storms will weaken below severe limits as they move toward Bowling green where the atmosphere is more stable.

looking at the new model guidance the nam initialized poorly leaning future forecasts in the direction of the gfs today.  I’m still expecting up to an additional  inch through tonight with another 2-4 inches of rain tomorrow.

forecaster: MWG