Potential severe weather for tomorrow!

As of mid-week the models weren’t looking to good for storm chances this weekend. Well that has since changed dramatically and SPC now has our area under a moderate risk for severe weather. With a moderate risk comes the potential to see some pretty nasty weather; everything from damaging winds, flash flooding, hail, to possible tornadoes. From the models it looks like the greatest threat is going to be to our southwest, but if cells do develop in this region then there is a good chance those cells could head our way. The severe potential also depends on the timing of things as well, such as when convective initiation actually occurs and if a rain band develops out a head of the severe cells. If this happens the band could decrease the instability and lessen the chance for a severe threat. As of now it does seem that some discrete cells may initially fire but look for them to form into a squall line as the day progresses. The squall line can still be dangerous and still have tornadoes embedded in it. For the big picture of things. There is currently a High pressure sitting off the coast of Florida in the Atlantic helping to bring in warmer air and moisture¬† to are region. In the upper levels there is a nice trough swinging through that appears to be carrying a bowling ball. When the setup resembles the bowling ball you can usually expect some severe weather associated with it. There is plenty of lift both synoptically and via mesoscale. Low level jet strength coupled with the upper level jet will provide enough shear to get storms potentially rotating if they do develop. As of now it appears the main threat will be into the afternoon hours of Saturday. If anything changes dramatically I will update the blog. Just remember to be safe tomorrow. Thanks for reading the WKU met blog

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