1. Our region will be on the backside of a high and ahead of a strong slow moving cold front Thursday and Friday this will lead to increasing southerly winds which could be very gusty with a strong low level jet in place. The strong southerly winds will also transport lots of gulf moisture north into the region moisture will also being streaming in from the pacific ahead of the next frontal boundary. This front should begin to spread to spread showers and thunderstorms into the region by Friday night but as it does so the eastward movement will slow as it encounters resistance from the eastern ridge. Highs will likely range from 77-84 with warmer overnight lows as well.
2. This frontal Boundary will stall or meander throughout the weekend in our region with several rounds of thunderstorms, lots of moisture will still be streaming into the region and the showers and storms will move parallel along the front known as training. This se-up can very easily lead to excessive rainfall over the region this weekend. clouds and precip will keep temperatures in check as well only in the 70’s for highs. My thinking now is instability needed for widespread severe weather will be somewhat limited by the shear amount of rain and cloudcover along the frontal boundary. however some strong to severe storms are possible along the initial period of thunderstorms as there be a window for the atmosphere to become unstable ahead of the front, another window for severe weather is if the front can retreat north on Sunday bringing the region further into warm sector away from the steady showers and storms. Overall the main threat is for excessive rainfall this weekend with severe weather as a secondary threat but some strong storms with gusty winds are possible.
18z gfs rainfall for this weekend.
the storm prediction center has our region outlined for a day 4 severe risk on Saturday.
I’m thinking this front hangs into the region through the middle of next week this theory for a continued extended hvy rain event beyond this weekend has merit from the the JMA model and the gfs ensembles.
Going back to about a month ago when i last wrote about a drought likely for the region, this is no longer case as the 2 inches of rain last weekend and expected hvy rains over the next 10 days will keep the region from entering a drought for the forseeable future.