More Active Start to Week

1. The pattern for this week will be a stationary boundary to our north and northwest with our region on the eastern edge of the summertime  ridge.  The boundary will move back and froth through the week when it close thunderstorms chance increase when it’s further north it’s hot and humid.

2. The front is closer on Sunday this means scattered storms (50% coverage) will once again develop with the afternoon and evening with fewer storms for other hours. CAPE and LI values once again indicate instability which can lead to some of the storms becoming severe. Highs should be in the  upper 80′s with lows near 70.  This front will be over the region for Sunday night through Monday giving us a likely period of storms(60%) in this timeframe the front should retreat north again by Monday night. The nam in particular suggests a mcs/ period of storms Sunday night although with a little convective feedback.

The spc has a slight risk close to the region

00z nam radar

3. This front retreats north with several mcs’s and impulses moving along it for Tuesday and Wednesday however this allows the ridge to build in a little more decreasing storm coverage to isolated about (30%) highs once again will be in the upper 80′s to low 90’s with muggy dewpoints keeping the overnight lows warm in the low to mid 70′s. It should be noted that that the euro is indicating a mcs or two may dive far enough south into the region along this boundary for the mid-week period. Outside of the storms heat index values may once again reach 100 at times this week.

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