Heavy Rain Tonight… Snow Tomorrow!

Christmas has turned out to be cold and cloudy here in south-central Kentucky, but at least the cold weather makes it feel more like Christmas right? The clouds are ahead of a major winter storm now starting in the southern plains.  Snow is falling in Oklahoma, even as far south as Dallas, TX and icing is occurring in Arkansas.  Meanwhile Tornadoes have already been reported in east Texas and there are numerous Tornado warnings in LA/MS.  So how will this storm system impact us here in south-central Kentucky?  It looks like the heavy snow/blizzard conditions will remain just off to our west.  Blizzard warnings have been posted for much of western KY with a winter weather advisory now extending from just north of Louisville down to Central City and Hopkinsville.

Current watches and warnings across central Kentucky as of 3:40 pm.

In these areas rain will transition to a wintry mix and will eventually switch to all snow sometime Wednesday morning.  Some light snow is likely even for much of south-central Kentucky including Bowling Green by mid-day Wednesday.  First however rain will move in and the winds will increase.  NE winds will continually increase this afternoon into the evening.  Overnight winds will be from 18-28 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.  Winds will be strongest between 10 pm and 6 am.  Rain should start across our area sometime around or just after 6 pm this evening and will continue into the early morning hours of Wednesday.  Rainfall will be heavy at times and 1.00-1.50 inches of rainfall is likely in the area, some areas may receive up to 2 inches of rain.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s precipitation forecast. Note around an inch plus in south-central KY.

Rain will probably move out between 6-9 am tomorrow as the “dry slot” of the storm system moves in.  Meanwhile temperatures will be dropping from the mid 40s early to the low 30s throughout the day as cold air is ushered in by strong 10-20 mph NW winds.  Some precipitation should wrap around the back side of the low pressure system and into south-central KY including BG just around noon on Wednesday and continuing into the evening hours.  This will likely be rain which will mix in with and switch to snow after 1 pm.  At this time this shower/snow shower activity appears to be light and scattered and thus little accumulation of snow is expected.  Some areas may pick up around a half inch of snow.

18Z High Resolution NAM reflectivity indicates light rain changing to light snow in central Kentucky by 1 pm.

Behind the storm system cold air will continue to move in.  Skies should be mostly sunny by Thursday though it will be cold with highs only in the upper 30s.

Tonight: Rain, heavy at times.  Windy; winds from the NE from 18-28 mph with gusts to 35 mph.  Temperatures warming to near 45 by morning.  Rainfall between 0.75-1.25 inches.

Wednesday: Rain in the morning coming to and end by 9 am.  70% chance of rain/snow showers after noon.  Winds switching from the NW at 10-20 mph.  Temperatures cooling from near 45 in morning to the low 30s by 6 pm.  Rainfall less than a quarter of an inch and snowfall around a half an inch is possible.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy skies with a few snow flurries possible early otherwise cold with lows near 26.  Winds from the NW at 6-12 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and cool with highs near 38.

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