Afternoon everyone! Another week has come and gone as have the temperature swings. As of this posting the current temperature ranges from 70 to lower 80s across the Mid-South region, particularly it is 77 degrees in Bowling Green (kymesonet.org). High temperature are expected to range between mid to upper 70s into the lower 80s for most of the region. The outlook for today was sunny with increasing clouds and rain during the afternoon to evening hours.
SPC Categorical Outlook for Severe Storm Potential for November 18, 2016 20Z
Currently there is a surface low pressure system located in northern Michigan near the Great Lakes area moving north east with a cold front that stretches from the Great Lakes region down into Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana area.
SPC/NWS/NOAA Forecast Map for November 18, 2016 20Z
This cold front has a rain band associated with it. The movement of this front is driven by the trough axis that is moving through behind the front pushing the air mass across the region. This system has slight severe weather potential due to some measurable cape values, areas with potential energy available, a conditionally unstable atmosphere were areas with more instability bringing greater rain amounts and severe weather. Also a dangerous wind speed situation with winds at the 10 meter level around 20 mph sustained with gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible, indicating a severe storm situation. Expected cumulative rain for this system over the next 6 to 12 hours is around 0.5 inch to 1 inch.
In order these maps show the upper level trough location identified by dip in isotachs (solid lines). The next map shows the CAPE measures associated with this rain band of areas measuring between 500 (purple) to 1000 (blue) Joules of potential energy. The third map shows the 10 meter high wind gusts., where the purple line is increased wind gusts from the frontal passage in due to the convergence of wind to the surface level low.
Upper Level Wind Speed Map Showing Trough location at 3Z November 19, 2016 (College of DuPage Weather Analysis Tool)
Mid Unstable CAPE and Bulk Shear (College of DuPage Weather Analysis Tool)
10 Meter Wind Gusts (College of DuPage Weather Analysis Tool)
Outlook for Tonight and through the weekend:
Tonight: Rain showers and thunderstorms before 3am with rain chances afterwards. Cumulative rain totals range from a tenth of an inch to a half inch possible, with areas
Saturday: Rain showers leaving area early morning, with conditions becoming Sunny and clear. The high temperature will be around 43 degrees and wind speeds will range from 5 to 15 mph throughout the day originating from the northwest.
Saturday Night: Clear with low temperature of 26 degrees and winds from the west at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday: Clear and Sunny with high temperature of 42 and winds from the west at 5 to 10mph.
Sunday Night: Clear and cool with a low temperature of 26 degrees and winds from the west at around 5 mph.
Enjoy the weekend everyone!