Valentine’s Day Forecast

What is that bright yellow ball in the sky?

It sure seems like it has been a while since the sun has been visible! Rain has been the story for much of February so far; and some long range models are hinting that the active pattern continues for at least the next week or so.

12Z GFS Model run

Models, such as the 12Z GFS shown above, are signaling the potential for another system to impact us this weekend. This far out it’s hard to tell where that rain to ice/snow line will fall- but it is certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few days. With an ongoing active pattern into the latter half of February, there’s a good chance that we could see some more winter weather before the month is over.

18Z NAM Model Run

Check out that surge of yellows from the south at the beginning of the model run above. That’s a decent warm-up (50’s) for Valentine’s Day, before another cold front passes and it gets cold yet again.

01Z HRRR

Above, the short range HRRR model illustrates gusty winds of about 30-40mph moving into the area by the early afternoon tomorrow. For those in high profile vehicles, take it slow and safe out there on the highways as these winds could make travel difficult. For those delivering Valentine’s Day flowers, do it in the morning and avoid losing them to the wind!

Summary:

  • An active weather pattern continues; chances for wintry precipitation over the next few weeks
  • Southerly winds ahead of a cold front bring milder temperatures and strong winds for Valentine’s Day
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