WKU Meteorology

Now that summer 2008 is officially half-over, I thought it would be interesting to see how my forecast from May is turning out. Aside from a very hot first two weeks of June, everything seems to be on track. Continue reading →

My last post two weeks ago ended with the following…

If this all happens as currently forecast, the 2nd half of June could end up cooler than normal due to a NW flow, but we may not see very much in the way of precipitation.

This turned out to be a good forecast, so much so that I haven’t even had to run the A.C. for the past week. Unfortunately, the lack of recent rainfall has me somewhat concerned since there doesn’t appear to be much relief in the long range forecast. Continue reading →

The 2nd in a series of weakening cold fronts will bring about a pattern change that will end the early-season heat wave and bring about a return to cooler weather. The first front will cross the Mid-South Tuesday and will knock 5 degrees off our highs (90 instead of 95) for Wednesday-Friday. The second front will cross the Mid-South Saturday and will knock another 5 degrees off our highs Sunday – Wednesday (85 instead of 90). By mid-June, most models show that a trough will return to the eastern United States, which will bring about cooler weather and possibly some rain. Continue reading →

One small change in the value of a teleconnection is all that was needed to change our weather from cool and wet to hot and dry. This is a perfect example of why seasonal forecasting is so difficult. Continue reading →

June is almost here and Kentucky has yet to record a 90 degree day, although southern KY could get there on Friday (although I wouldn’t hold my breath). The median date for the first 90 degree day of the year is 6/2 for Bowling Green and 6/7 for Louisville. But more importantly, what does the rest of the summer look like? Continue reading →

In my last post I discussed how a ridge would build across the central U.S. Thursday and Friday in response to a deepening trough over the western United States. As often happens this time of year, the downstream polar vortex that has brought the unseasonably chilly weather to much of the north-central U.S. over the past two weeks has become closed off aloft, which has resulted in an Omega blocking pattern that has delayed our warm-up. Continue reading →

In my last post I mentioned that there was some model disagreement regarding the 2nd half of next week. I mentioned that the GFS called for a return to cold and wet while the European model kept the cold air to the west and allowed a warm ridge to overspread the central United States. Today’s GFS now agrees with the warm ridge idea. Continue reading →

The phased jet streak pattern mentioned in my previous post that resulted in rain every 2-3 days will transition to a less wet but cool northwest flow over the next week. Continue reading →

The rest of May is shaping up to be unsettled across the central United States as a perfect setup for shortwave generation in is place. Continue reading →

The prolonged negative PNA pattern that has controlled the weather across the Mid-South since mid-March (right about the time I stopped posting) has kept things quiet and dry. That will change as a bowling-ball 500 mb low will barrel across the central Plains and bring some rain this weekend. Continue reading →