WKU Meteorology

The Weather Channel, Global Warming, and February rain in Chicago

Posted on March 2, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

During the recent blizzard/tornado event on March 1st, Chicago was in the mid-40s and received over an inch of rain. According to the discussion boards at Easternuswx.com, during the February 28th broadcast of “Abrams & Bettes”, Stephanie Abrams said she “spoke to her elders” in the Chicago area, and that “they could never remember a February where they ever had rain” (in actuality she was referring to the predicted rain for March 1st, but since the show aired February 28th, she forgot the predicted rain would occur in March and not February). She even reportedly asked the on-site reporter from Chicago what his thoughts were on this unusual February rain. (Disclosure: I didn’t see the broadcast, so I can’t verify if this is true). Having lived in Chicago from 1980-1990, I have a good memory of what winter is like and I seem to remember quite a few February rains. But rather than rely solely on my memory (as Ms. Abrams and her elders apparently did), I decided to research the matter for myself. Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Change | Comments Off

Snow Saturday night?

Posted on February 27, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

The models as well as the synoptic pattern both are suggesting the possibility of snow showers for much of Kentucky Saturday night. The GFS shows a fast-moving piece of energy rotating through the longwave trough overnight Saturday which will help to reinforce the cold air for Sunday. The NAM shows a couple of pieces of energy moving through the trough as early as Saturday morning Continue reading →

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Northern Plains blizzard redux

Posted on February 26, 2007 by Gregory Goodrich

Update: 3/1 6:00 am: The SPC has upgraded western KY to a moderate risk of severe weather although the greatest risk of tornadoes remains south and west over MS, AL and TN. As in the previous update, the key will be how much sunshine we get Thursday ahead of the front and how far north the 60+ dewpoint air will advect.

Update: 2/27 2:00 pm: The SPC site is now working and you can read their discussion here. Both the SPC and the NWS Louisville office believe the greatest instability and hence, the greatest severe weather risk will be over TN, MS and AL although there is still a slight risk for severe weather, including tornadoes, across KY. The key will be how much sunshine we get Thursday ahead of the front and how far north the 60+ dewpoint air will advect.

Original post: For over a week now I have been suggesting that there will be a “return to winter” during the first week of March (see Bottom Line point #2) and that March should come in like a lion. The strong storm currently battering the West Coast will follow a similar path as the recent weekend storm and eject from the Southwest into the central Plains Wednesday, setting the stage for more severe weather across the southern tier states as well as anothern 12″+ blizzard for parts of the northern Plains. While this storm has a similar synoptic setup as the weekend storm, there are some very important differences that will affect the mid-south. Continue reading →