WKU Meteorology

Even though the last 30 days (1/20-2/18) ranks as one of the 10 coldest in the past 110 years, the wintry weather will be nothing more than a memory during the last week of February. Temperatures will surge into the 60s by midweek and the NWS says that 70 degrees is a possibility for Saturday (2/24). However, this return to spring also brings with it the possibility of severe weather (including tornadoes) for the mid-south. Continue reading →

While we bask in 50+ degree air here in south-central KY Tuesday, a storm of historic proportions is ravaging the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and New England. There is an incredibly large area of blizzard warnings (minimum criteria – falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility to 35 mph.) stretching from western Illinois to eastern Ohio. Snowfall forecasts of 18-30 inches (with isolated areas of >40″) are being predicted for the area stretching from central PA to northern ME. Transportation along the major east-west interstates such as I-70, I-80, and I-90, could be shut down for up to a couple of days as winds gusting up to 35 mph will produce whiteout conditions and drifts of several feet through Friday. Temperatures behind this storm will be among the coldest of the year for the Midwest and New England, with highs in the teens and wind chills well below zero. The parts of NY that received over 11 feet of lake-effect snow recently will receive an additional 16-30 inches from this storm.

What?!? My synoptic meteorology students may remember how direct and indirect transverse vertical circulations lead to enhanced precipitation in winter storms. Looking at the 120 hr model of the 12z run from Thursday, you can clearly see two jet streaks that are off-set, with the northern jet streak leading the southern jet streak. What does this mean? Continue reading →

Upstate NY has gotten hammered with what will likely end up as over 100 inches of snow. Accuweather has some nice radars and storm totals while CNN has some pictures and video. Here and here are some additional pictures as well.

On Saturday I outlined the expected pattern change that would be taking place during the February 10-24 period. In that discussion I noted that a split flow was developing and that…

…split flow patterns provide the access to the moisture (sub-tropical jet) and cold air (polar jet) necessary for major winter storm formation. Timing will be the key, as shortwaves from each jet will need to phase together to develop a big storm.

and also…

If the split flow does persist, I think the probability of at least one major winter storm in the eastern U.S. is fairly high…in the Feb 10-24 period. Regardless, this pattern should be much stormier than what we’ve seen the past two weeks under the dominance of the polar vortex.

Well, sure enough, there is growing evidence of at least one and possibly two major winter storms that will affect the eastern half of the U.S. next week. Continue reading →

Expect a quick burst of snow overnight that should just replace the inch we got Friday. There is decent ensemble consensus for another quick burst of snow Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of the last truly cold air mass (at least for right now). This one also looks like another 1-2 inch type storm although it’s too far out to determine exact storm track. Aside from the snow chances, the big question meteorologically is what will happen to the pattern next? Will we remain in the icebox for the rest of the month or will things warm up? Continue reading →