WKU Meteorology

While the CPC is showing mild weather across the U.S. through 3/22, I expect this to be changed radically in the coming days. Both the GFS ensembles and the ECMWF show the return of a wintry pattern to the Great Lakes and Northeast. As mentioned yesterday, some of the ensembles had been hinting at a cold clipper breaking down the flat ridge over the midsection of the country. Today, nearly all of the GFS ensembles and the European suggest that winter is not over yet. Continue reading →

NOTE: If you’ve noticed I haven’t had a weather post in over a week that would be because were are in a very tranquil weather pattern. March may have come in like a lion but it is definitely coasting through mid-month like a lamb, as I predicted back on February 26th (see the last sentence). Quiet times like this give me the opportunity to post on statistical climatology and global warming.

College students everywhere will be flocking to beaches over the next few days so I thought I’d produce a Spring Break forecast for popular vacation hotspots. If you are going to a place that I don’t mention, add a comment and I will update the forecast with the new location. Continue reading →

Update: 3/1 6:00 am: The SPC has upgraded western KY to a moderate risk of severe weather although the greatest risk of tornadoes remains south and west over MS, AL and TN. As in the previous update, the key will be how much sunshine we get Thursday ahead of the front and how far north the 60+ dewpoint air will advect.

Update: 2/27 2:00 pm: The SPC site is now working and you can read their discussion here. Both the SPC and the NWS Louisville office believe the greatest instability and hence, the greatest severe weather risk will be over TN, MS and AL although there is still a slight risk for severe weather, including tornadoes, across KY. The key will be how much sunshine we get Thursday ahead of the front and how far north the 60+ dewpoint air will advect.

Original post: For over a week now I have been suggesting that there will be a “return to winter” during the first week of March (see Bottom Line point #2) and that March should come in like a lion. The strong storm currently battering the West Coast will follow a similar path as the recent weekend storm and eject from the Southwest into the central Plains Wednesday, setting the stage for more severe weather across the southern tier states as well as anothern 12″+ blizzard for parts of the northern Plains. While this storm has a similar synoptic setup as the weekend storm, there are some very important differences that will affect the mid-south. Continue reading →

While it is still early to project what type of hurricane season the Atlantic basin will have in 2007, it is worth nothing that computer models anticipate that La Nina conditions are expected to rapidly develop over the next few months. What does this mean for the 2007 hurricane season? Continue reading →

It is starting to become clear that the worst severe weather potential will be south and west of KY this weekend. For Saturday, the highest risk appears to be MO, LA, MS while on Sunday the highest risk will shift to MS, AL and TN. Is anyone going chasing this weekend? Continue reading →

The 2007 tornado season is off to a deadly start, as there have been nearly twice as many tornadoes as usual thus far (65 vs. 38) and many more deaths than usual (23 vs. 2). There is still the potential for a dangerous severe weather outbreak this weekend from the southern plains into the mid-south. Continue reading →