Zonal pattern ahead

The long-range pattern looks to be somewhat dull as a mean zonal flow should keep things quiet and right around normal in the Mid-South.

The major teleconnection indicators all suggest a zonal jet stream with numerous flat waves moving across the country. The NAO is slightly negative, the PNA is very negative, and the EPO is positive. The operational GFS is trying to create an omega blocking pattern centered over the central Plains (seen at 180 hours), but the ECMWF does not have the feature as shown in the GFS/ECMWF comparison. The CPC is using the omega block idea from the 12z GFS in their 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks, but this idea is not well supported by other models. Note the poor correlation in the ensembles at 500 mb on day 10. There is still a lot of variability in the long range pattern at this time.

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