The majority of the models used to predict the weather for the past several days led by the GFS have been hinting at a quick cool shot for late thanksgiving week with a low pressure system over the east coast or upper great lakes putting the mid south in a nw flow pattern with some wind and well below normal temperatures.
let’s take a look at Wednesday’s run of the 00z (early morning) gfs for thanksgiving day. 850 mb temp map, surface temp map, and thickness map . Note the the surface temps thanksgiving afternoon are in the 40’s but both temps at the 850 mb level and thickness values are cold enough for snow. Looking at just this model run I would go mid 40’s for highs with sprinkles then flurries at night for the mid south on thanksgiving.
A look at the same run for next Friday late afternoon. 850 mb temp map, surface temp map and thickness map. From this I would judge highs in the upper 30’s with scattered snow showers and flurries in this set-up, some rain would still potentially mix in.
Tuesday’s runs of the Canadian and Japanese models back up this GFS run to some extent while the 00z euro also has a deeper low with some snow potential at the end. For now expect a mid week front next week with a quick cool blast to get us into the winter spirit behind it for your thanksgiving plans.
I’ll be updating later this week on the Weekend forecast. One thing about the model images is they do update daily, so by Wednesday night most of them will be for different times.