Another nice day today, Thursday storm chances?

Today will be much the same story as yesterday, with the exception of slightly warmer temperatures as winds have shifted out of the south. Bowling Green should reach 90 today with a low tonight of around 65 with increasing clouds.

The main story however is tomorrow’s weather. Currently a potent mid level shortwave, and its resulting surface low and cold front, are ejecting out of the Rockies and is forecast to be in the Great Lakes region by tomorrow. This coupled with upper level jet dynamics will make for a descent synoptic setup for thunderstorm development over Eastern Kentucky. However, both the NAM and GFS forecast models have sped up the surface cold-front, and show this cold-front passing much earlier than was forecast yesterday. It is presently forecast to be Through south-central Ky by mid-day, before maximum heating and instability can be realized. Model soundings indicate only marginal CAPE at less than 1000 J/Kg for our region as surface instability will be a limiting factor for severe weather.

So, in a nutshell, tomorrow’s slight severe threat seems to be decreasing for Bowling Green, but only time will tell. Clouds will be on the increase tonight as this system approaches, which will keep nighttime temps higher than yesterday. There is a good chance for rain tomorrow morning through mid-day as the cold front approaches, with some embedded thunderstorms. If you live in eastern Ky the threat of severe weather increases as maximum daytime instability is realized before passage of this cold front. Regardless, hope for some rain…we could use it.

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