Possible Rain Followed by More Chill

Today was a beautiful day with a high of 44 and blue skies.  Tonight’s low will slip into the upper 20’s under mostly clear skies. A brief warming trend will begin tomorrow throughout the day with southerly winds predominating. High’s will get into the upper 50’s and maybe 60. This is preceding a cold frontal passage late tomorrow evening around 10 pm. Available moisture and instability will both be minimal, giving low confidence for organized precipitation. Regarding precipitation type, models are keeping surface and near-surface temperatures above freezing during the time of expected precipitation, giving high confidence for rain. With intensity, the surface low will  be to the north near the Great Lakes. This increasing distance may lessen the strength of the front as it passes our area.


Considering amount, models are calling for upwards of three quarters of an inch. The earlier stated weakening front, minimal moisture, and lack of instability lower my expectations to under half an inch. Given it is a cold front, any precipitation that falls will be relatively brief, but intense. It should be hit or miss. Half an inch will be my upper threshold. After the passage, temperatures will drop and remain on the chilly side for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another brief warming trend will commence Thursday ahead of a more promising disturbance Friday. There will be mid-week details regarding this feature.

Days at a glance:

Monday: High – 59  Low – 27  Precipitation – 80% (.35 inches rain)  Wind – S increasing throughout the day up to 20-24 mph then switching late to NW 13-15 mph  Sky – clear with clouds gathering into the evening

Tuesday: High – 43  Low – 31  Precipitation – 10% residual rain from cold front  Wind – NW 11-13 mph  Sky – cloudy skies becoming clear by afternoon

Wednesday: High 39  Low – 21  Precipitation – 0%  Wind – NW 5 mph switching to N and E late  Sky – clear

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