Models are picking up on a clipper system to move through the area this weekend. As of right now looks like cold air is in place for some measurable snowfall for the area. Now with models this far out in advance, they are fairly inaccurate, but its worth noting and we will definitely be keeping an eye out on the system as new runs keep coming out. A lot has to come together for a clipper system like this to give the area much in the means of measurable snow, so don’t be too alarmed just yet.
Western Kentucky University awoke to some light snow this morning and picked up a trace. If you were to step outside however you would soon realize that snow isn’t the real story here. Deep Arctic air has made its way south into the area associated with the low pressure system of the New England coast. These unseasonably cold temperatures will remain in the area over the next couple of days so be sure to bundle up and dress appropriately.
Monday, expect clearing after snow showers diminish mid-morning but the cold temperatures to linger throughout the day. Strong northerly flow aloft is aiding in the fetch of the cold arctic air mass. A high today around 30 and a low tonight in the mid teens. Winds out of the north around 12-15 mph.
Tuesday, expect sunny skies as a high pressure builds in over the area. But don’t expect temperatures to rise above the low 30’s as we are still under strong northerly flow aloft. The low will dip into the low to mid teens as radiative cooling will take place under clear skies. Winds out of the north around 10 mph.
Wednesday, a slight warm up will exist over the area as the flow aloft turns from northerly to more northwest in origin. This will allow the high to get into the mid 30’s with sunny skies. A low around 20. Winds out of the northwest around 5 mph.
Over this fall term students in Dr.Durkee’s Synoptic class forecasted weather each day for cities across the country and competed with meteorology majors from the university of Georgia, northern Illinois university and Mississippi state university. Overall Lee Campbell a blog author finished in first place overall in the precipitation category with Dustin Jordan and Kyle berry placing in the top five overall . WKU also the winner of the contest overall blog author Mitchell Gaines. These forecast contests allow students to better there forecasting abilities and gain experience in the field along with putting the program on the map.
Over the weekend confidence is high the clipper type system will track north of Bowling Green meaning little in the way for any snow while the bluegrass and northern KY get 1-3 inches. This cold pattern should hold for a few more weeks due to a – NAO. Regular posts will resume later today or this weekend.
The past couple days were rather wet for Bowling Green, with the airport recording 1.01 inches of rain. This was associated with a rather slow moving cold front that moved through our area. Now that this front has moved through, our second cold blast of the year has occured, with the first one associated with the last cold front around Thanksgiving. A few flurries fell last night, but there was no accumulation.
Both the GFS and the NAM are forecasting a shortwave trough to move through the lower Ohio Valley sometime over the weekend with an affiliated low pressure system. There may be some precipitation associated with this event, but it is unclear whether or not Bowling Green will see any of it. Ahead of this, there should be some light warm air advection bringing temperatures in our area back into the mid 40s, but this brief ‘warm-up’ should be over with by Monday or so, with temperatures returning into the 30s. It looks as if wintertime is finally upon us!
For those who are interested, the KY division of emergency managers are holding there first annual weather workshop. Topics range from weather awareness and safety, to impacts of El niño Southern Oscillation’s effects on KY weather. The target audience is anywhere from emergency managers and meteorologists, to agricultural specialists. Information about the event being held today and tommorow here in Bowling Green can be found at the link below.
http://kyem.ky.gov/conferencesandworkshops/weatherworkshop2010.htm
Guest speakers include Dr. Greg Forbes from the Weather Channel, members of the National Weather Service and faculty from WKU. Everyone is invited, including prospective meteorology students as one of the talks is on programs available at ky universities.
Shortwave and resulting vorticity maxima, coupled with some jet dynamics, is allowing just enough lift for some light showers in northern KY. For Bowling green, it will be a cloudy day with skies clearing overnight. High pressure will also return tonight, that with clearing skies will allow temps to fall tonight. Todays high should reach 51 with tonight’s low reaching 35 under calm winds.
After today’s stereotypical November day temperatures will begin to moderate for the weekend as a large trough develops over the Western US, keeping the real fall weather away from South-Central Ky for the near term.
An approaching system to our west is bringing with it Gulf moisture. Clouds will begin to build into the area as the afternoon approaches bringing with it the increase in precipitation later tonight. High today will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Tuesday we should be awake to a steady rain as the system approaches from the Southwest, encompassing our region. QPF amounts range from about ¾ or just over an inch. Look for temperatures to stay in the low to mid 50s due to clouds and rain in the area. A touch cooler would not be surprising, with a low around 40.
Wednesday we do see a slight break in weather as the system moves out of the area Tuesday night, but will be short lived as a clipper system up north looks to be sweeping through the area heading towards the later part of the week. Look for a high on Wednesday to be around 60 with a low in the mid 30s.
Overall .27 inches of rain fell from the frontal passage Saturday night my COCORAHS site location. Temperatures during the day warmer into the 70’s ahead of the front on Saturday. Now the front has moved through with more seasonable fall air behind it and temperatures into the 50’s. Some clearing with cooler temps will be the rule today. The models have merged on a solution for Thursday with some rain showers and temps in the 40’s. However there still some debate regarding the evolution of the Monday and Tuesday system with the GFS being very aggressive with rainfall totals, check back on Monday for more.
1. A frontal boundary is moving through today overall the ridge should lead to a weaking trend with the shower activity. The best chance for showers should be in the late afternoon and evening with light rainfall amounts. highs should be able to get close to 70 once again after a chilly start in the 40’s. Some of the showers may linger into Sunday with clearing late. with cold air advection behind the front Sunday highs should only the reach the 50’s. Continue reading
The extremely high amplitude trough that was located over our area towards the end of last week has moved out over the Atlantic, replaced by a similarly high amplitude ridge that has brought temperatures into the mid 70s for the past few days. While these temperatures are certainly warm, we are still well below the record values for this date. In 2002, a high amplitude ridge brought a blast of warm air from south Texas into the central plains on November 9. This air mass was then advected into the Bowling Green area, bringing with it high temperatures in the low 80s for much of the southeast — temperatures substantially higher than expected this time of year.
Will there be a cool down soon? Over the weekend, a positively tilted trough is expected to move into the area. There probably will not be enough instability in the air to create any severe weather, but a slow moving, rain intensive system is fairly likely. The GFS is currently calling for the heaviest precipitation from the associated cold front to fall in Arkansas and Mississippi; however, this does not rule out the possibility of rain next week, associated with much more seasonal weather. Due to the slow motion nature of this system, however, there is a good chance for the rain to persist for a few days.
500 mb GFS forecast, 18 UTC, November 15, 2010