WKU Meteorology

Shawn Crowe writes “Medium range models are keeping us above freezing until at least the 17th of the month now. It’s not looking good for snowfall chances in KY this month, as this zonal pattern seems to be stubborn. What is your take Dr. Goodrich?”

Today’s cold front and flurries aside, the next week to ten days appears to reflect the pattern change I alluded to in my last blog posting where I mentioned a transition to a more zonal flow sometime around 12/10-15. The actual pattern change will occur a couple of days early and by this coming weekend the Mid-South will be >10F above normal for this time of year. Continue reading →

The weather through the first 27 days of November has been quite variable but normal overall (Temp = -0.01; Precip. = 0.00 relative to normal). The pattern over the next two weeks should remain active with a series of storms. The first of the storms is shaping up and should begin affecting the Mid-South Saturday night. Continue reading →

As is often the case with winter storms, I have not paid too much attention to the likelihood of severe weather with this front. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Mid-South in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. Continue reading →

My last post introduced the idea of a cold and possibly stormy last 10 days of November. The order and timing of events speculated on in that post is becoming more clear, although uncertainties remain. Continue reading →

My last post at the beginning of the month discussed the possibility of mid-November cold with the caveat that “the EPO is not supportive of an extended cold air outbreak”. This turned out to be exactly true as the EPO has been strongly positive for the last few days, which teleconnects to a strong, zonal Pacific jet which in turn floods the U.S. with mild, Pacific air and frequent but weak storms. So despite a weakly negative NAO (which is often a cool signal), the Mid-South has enjoyed balmy near 70 degree weather the past couple of days despite widespread cloudiness. Things are about to change just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday! Continue reading →

As prefaced in my last couple of posts here and here, the first arctic air mass of the season is poised to descend on the Mid-South early next week. The models are also hinting at a possible wet weekend for the WKU homecoming game on November 10. Continue reading →

Here are some interesting statistics regarding our record-breaking late October rain event in the Mid-South. Bowling Green is used as the station of record for all statistics. Continue reading →

The model and teleconnection data are suggesting that the first ten days of November will feature below normal temperatures with at least one and possibly two arctic air masses over the eastern United States. Continue reading →

Mark Baldwin of the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (and a former WKU graduate) posed this question here and I did a little research to find the answer. I love when “people” say things like this about climate since “people” are almost always wrong when it comes to their memories about climate. See here for a classic example. Mark, here is some ammo to refute the “people” you have been talking to. Continue reading →