WKU Meteorology

Greetings!

Fall has finally arrived! With the highs in the low 60s, it is around average for this time of year. However, the temperatures looks to be below average for the next couple of days.  With the high for Friday to be around 61 and low to 39. That is chill for this time of year. It is not well below average, but it is still not the average temperatures for this time.

Below is the 06z NAM

This is 21z (4 PM central) after the peak temperature in the low 60s.

Today will start off pretty with increasing chance of rain into the evening hours then will clear up late tonight into Saturday morning. The shortwave’s axis is currently over North and South Dakota at 12z (7 AM central time) and is heading south east into our area. It will kick off some light showers in the evening hours.

Saturday will be cooler compared to Friday and Sunday, with a high in the upper 50s  and low in the upper 40s. Starting Sunday things become a little soggy. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio will come and bring rain to the Ohio valley. Following the remnants, embedded  shortwaves in a deepening trough will spark up more chances of rain in the beginning of next week.

Summary:

Friday: 61/42 chance of rain in the evening hours

Saturday: 58/48

Sunday: 60/57 great chance of rain through out the day

Good evening folks!

Mostly cloudy skies quickly moved on out of here earlier today giving way to a perfect Thursday. Temperatures around the Bowling Green area top out in the low to middle 60s. An area of high pressure will make its way towards the area during the overnight hours leaving nothing but clear skies. The clear skies during the night time hours will help the temperatures drop into low 40s. Expected even lower temperatures in the low lying valleys as cooler air tends to sink into the valleys.

Below: HRRR Fri 2018-10-12 12Z 2m AGL Temperature (°F)

Cool morning temperatures should rebound quickly from abundant sunshine during the first half of Friday. Highs will be limited, topping out around 61° during the afternoon ours as clouds as partly cloudy skies build in from the west. Most of the day tomorrow looks dry, but rain chances increase heading into the evening hours as a fast-moving shortwave trough moves in from the west. Even though the rain chances increase in the evening hours of Friday, model guidance is hinting at the rain being light.

Below: NAM Sat 2018-10-13 03Z 500 mb Height, Wind

This pesky shortwave will move on out of here before we know giving way to mostly clear skies during the overnight hours on Friday. Low temperatures for Friday night will drop into the lower 40s. An area of high pressure will begin to build in the Ohio River Valley resulting in a dry Saturday and Saturday evening. High temperatures for Saturday will top out around 58°. Fall is in the air folks!!

Forecast

Friday: Sunny skies with a high temperature of 61° winds out of the NW at 10 mph.

Friday Night: Chance of rain throughout the night with otherwise mostly cloudy skies, low temperature of 43° winds out of the NW at 7-10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny skies, cool, high temperature of 58° with winds out of the NE at 5 mph.

Hurricane Michael loop from about 11pm-12:30am CDT, Wednesday, Oct. 10th. – Courtesy Tropical Tidbits

In less than 24 hours, it is feasible that the first Category 4 hurricane to hit the U.S. in 14 years will make landfall. The last one was Hurricane Charley in 2004. Now, Hurricane Michael has its eye set on the Florida panhandle and seems to be zoning in on Panama City. It is currently churning about 200 miles off the coast of Florida, and its current sustained winds are 130 mph and moving N at 12 mph. The above Longwave Infrared imagery GIF shows the location the coldest cloud tops (white and pink colors), thus depicting the strongest thunderstorms. The northern and eastern sides of the eyewall have quickly intensified over the past hour and a half around the very well defined eye.

Predicted Storm Surge Inundation – Courtesy of NHC

While the eye will pass very close to Panama City Beach, the most extensive damage will probably occur in the Apalachicola and East Bay areas due to storm surge. Many parts of Franklin and Wakulla counties will experience storm surge greater than 9 feet above ground. This is also possible for the southern part of Jefferson county and northeastern Taylor county. The northeastern side of the storm typically packs the biggest punch considering the counterclockwise winds help spin up more tornadoes in this quadrant than any of the other quadrants, contains the highest windspeeds, and causes the worst storm surge inundation. This can change based on the trajectory of the storm and the topography of the area, but these effects are exactly what residents from St. Vincent Sound to Port Leon along Route 98 can expect. St. George Island residents will experience the full force of Hurricane Michael’s NE quadrant, so it is wise to board up and ship out faster than already done.

Inland areas that don’t experience flooding from storm surge could still see flooding rains. Predicted amounts range from 6-10 inches on the high end. These amounts are possible for Florida, extreme southeastern Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Cone of Probable Path of the center of the storm – Courtesy of NHC

Hurricane Michael is predicted to be a Tropical Storm long after it makes landfall and even as it re-enters the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. This will extend the potential for damaging winds and flooding through Alabama, Georgia, South and North Carolina, and Virginia. As panhandle residents evacuate, it would be best to head North toward Birmingham, AL., if you are located West of Tallahassee, and head East or Southeast toward Jacksonville and Orlando, FL., if you live East of Tallahassee.

Tropical Storm Force Wind probabilities – Courtesy of NHC

As noted above, most of the panhandle is highly likely (between 90-100% chance)  to experience tropical storm force winds. These winds can cause power outages and toss light objects with large surface areas, so be sure to bring in the trashcans and anchor the trampolines or they may become flying projectiles and cause further damage to life and property.

Yes, if this hurricane continues as predicted in both path and intensity, it will be an extremely dangerous storm. Yes, human lives will be in danger, and property will be damaged. And yes, it would be best to evacuate as long as authorities still allow it. If you live on the coast of the panhandle or in a low lying area close to the coast, there’s no question about it: leave and seek shelter elsewhere if possible. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the Florida panhandle, and states of emergency have been declared in Florida, Alabama, and Georgia.

For those that choose to stay, DO NOT use the portable generator inside of the house or garage. Carbon monoxide build-up from the generator is odorless and kills numerous people every year. You won’t know you’re in danger until it is already too late. Store shelves are most likely empty, so make sure you have filled up a clean bathtub with clean water for boiling and washing yourself. Those that live in mobile homes should ask to seek shelter at a local church or other well built, elevated building. If you must drive during or after the storm and come across a flooded road, TURN AROUND and DON’T DROWN. You never know if the road is washed out underneath the water.

At the end of the day, stay safe and be wise. Many people are praying for the safety of you and your family.

Good afternoon folks!

Tuesday’s forecast is set to be a beautiful day in Bowling Green, Ky. Today would be perfect to get outside and enjoy the weather, there won’t be any complaints with this one. A sustained high pressure hanging on the southeastern coast for dear life keeping the temperatures warm – highs well into the 80 degree mark. Gusty winds out of the South up to 20 miles per hour suites for a decent push of air throughout your Tuesday. Conditions won’t be too terribly humid today partly because of these winds and some cloud cover. This trend of onslaught moisture is soon to end after Wednesday, then a cold front pushes from the north dwelling into the Mid-South region by Thursday morning.  Surface observation valid for Tues., around 11AM displays the south-easterly flow of winds and the pressure rising for areas along the MS Valley/Mid-South region. Expect to see some low clouds this afternoon but not as much moisture associated with the wind power, so Tuesday stays dry for the most part.

Surface Obs. of Regional U.S showing that distinctive boundary out in the OK panhandle into IA. (courtesy of WPC)

Wednesday shapes up to be sort of wonky for your weather forecast. Like I said earlier, a high pressure zone continues to linger bringing some fairer skies to the Mid-South region. However, on oncoming cold front associated with a surface low has been developing and shifts into the Midwest region by Wednesday. This shortwave trough will create slight disturbances along with it’s formation and some lifting of clouds. Meanwhile, an increase in humidity and moisture for Wednesday’s forecast is associated with Hurricane Michael right off the Gulf coast. NAM model guidance is revealing a possibility of popped showers for the afternoon hours. Depending on how fast moving this shortwave of cold air squeezes into the region the less rainfall we’ll tend to receive for Wednesday. Thursday and Friday tend to be parched for moisture feeling a lot like the fall season after the cold front approaches.

1000-500 mb Thickness just prior to the noon hour on Wednesday displays the temperature difference at different height levels. Advection along the MS Valley into the Midwest region. (courtesy of PivotalWeather)

Dew points are relevant to the conditional state of how much moisture is in the atmosphere. For Tuesday dew points will be fairly comfortable with readings of upper 60’s, as the gusty winds give a rather breezy feeling than overwhelming humidity. Wednesday dew points reading low 70’s, which that interval of 5-10 degrees between the two conditions is a very noticeable difference. Both NAM and the GFS are in agreement with saying that dew points will reach up to low 70’s. Expect Wednesday to be hot and humid again with some increasing of clouds. This mechanism is expected to cause rainfall and the possibility of a thunderstorm Wednesday evening.

Dew point temperature readings for 21Z (4PM) showing that southern intake of moisture. (courtesy of PivotalWeather)

FORECAST:

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A few clouds in the area but we’ll stay dry for today 0% chance for rain. Gusty winds ranging from 10-15 mph out of the S/SE. Temperatures feeling perfect with dew points in the upper 60’s and breezy conditions.

High: 86/ Low: 70

Rain: 0.00″

Tuesday PM: Partly cloudy. A pleasant breeze and an overnight low temperature of about 70 degrees. Less humid air for the evening with dew points in the low to mid 60’s. 10% chance of rain overnight into the early AM hours.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy during the day, although clouds will increase with humidity and moisture on the incline due to Hurricane Michael. Medium chances for showers mostly in the afternoon and evening… 70% due to the moisture factor. A persistent breeze of about 5-10 mph from the South before the cold sector shifts the movement North overnight into Thursday.

High: 84/ Low: 59

Rain: ~0.05″

I am sure that by now everyone is aware of Hurricane Michael. Hurricane Michael has been being watched since around September 19 when it was simply a tropical disturbance with around a 50% of it becoming anything. October 6, 2018 the government of Cuba sent out a tropical storm watch which then became Tropical Cyclone Fourteen. As of right now, Michael is to the west of Florida. It is moving northward at 12 MPH with maximum winds of 120 MPH. Areas that are expected to be impacted include: Eastern Florida and the Florida Panhandle, the southern part of Mississippi, the south and southeastern part of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and parts of Maryland. IF YOU ARE ALONG THE COAST IN MS, AL, FL, or GA: PLEASE EVACUATE!!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152906.shtml?cone#contents

Hurricane Michael should make landfall sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. The biggest threats with this storm are storm surges, heavy rainfall, and heavy winds. The heavy rains could cause a larger problem with sending nitrates and other agricultural nutrients towards the sea helping to further strengthen the Red Tide. As with any other event with heavy rainfall, please refrain from driving through the waters if you chose to remain in the area of impact.

Above are the projected rainfall values. Unfortunately the Carolinas are going to see more unneeded rainfall. Please be on the lookout for more flooding. Extremely strong winds can already be felt in the impacted areas and are expected to increase through the night.

Storm surge warning have been put in lace for most of the eastern part of Florida and the Panhandle. Areas around Pensacola and Tampa are in a watch. Storm surges can best be defined as the sea raising due to a change in pressure, often due to storms. This rising causes flooding and large waves. Surges are expected to reach over 9 feet in some areas as seen in the graphic below. These surges are extremely dangerous so BE CAREFUL!

This is from the NHC for expected surges:

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

Hurricane Michael has already tightened and become more symmetrical. It is expected to become at least a category 3 before making landfall. As with any other storm, there are possibilities of tornadoes spinning up. The NHC is expecting most of these in the Panhandle and north part of Florida and in Georgia. Please keep in mind that tornadoes are highly unpredictable and still have the possibility of stirring up elsewhere.

For more information please visit: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Michael

As a wrap up I simply ask that everyone be smart and be safe!

Right now in Bowling Green, it is in the upper 70s with a very muggy dewpoint of 72. A stationary front lies just to the north of Kentucky that will likely dip down into part of the state throughout the week.

Surface Observation

The high pressure system to the east is keeping us stuck in this sauna instead of getting to enjoy the pleasure of fall weather. Looking at the GFS, it looks like that system should finally be pushed out Tuesday. A very deep trough from the northwest will come through to push that high pressure system out of the way. This trough will give a big boost in rain/thunderstorm chances for Wednesday. We also have the chance to see the leftovers of Tropical Depression 14 Wednesday and Thursday. Heights will increase Tuesday so there is a good chance we will see at least some showers from that.

GFS Wind Speeds and Heights at the surface

Unfortunately looking at the dewpoint models, it doesn’t look like we’ll get a ton of relief. Sunday and Monday will both be pretty nasty on the muggy meter. Sunday and Monday both are looking at maximum dewpoints at 72. Dewpoints will drop to 71 Tuesday, but then jump back up to 72 Wednesday.  Thankfully Thursday is looking to have its maximum in the upper 60s, which believe it or not will be a big improvement.

GFS dewpoints

So in summary

The Good: Relief is on its way sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday.

The Bad: We have a high pressure system that does not want to leave.

The Ugly: The muggy meter will be extra nasty to us until Thursday.

Sunday will reach a high of 90 and a low of 68 with a slight chance for rain over night.

Monday will hit a high of 88 and a low of 69 with a slight chance for rain.

Tuesday will see a high of 87 and a low of 68 with an increased chance of rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms.

12Z Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Heights, Divergence (Source: SPC)

It is another start of a hot and humid weekend here in Bowling Green. A strong ridge is bringing in moisture along with higher temperatures, such as the one above. Temperatures will reach as high as the mid-80’s and will go down to the lower 70’s as we finish our Saturday. Dew points will remain in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s, making for horribly uncomfortable conditions. If going outside for long periods, please stay hydrated.

12 RAP Temperatures (Source: College of DuPage)

There is a small chance for a stray showers to pop up. Other than that, there will be no stops in the hot and humid train as we continue into Sunday and into next week. For Sunday, temperatures will get into the low 80’s and fall to the upper 60’s. Monday follows a similar trend, with highs into low 80’s, and lows into the upper 60’s.

Summary:

Saturday: Hot and humid with 20% chance of showers; High: 85, Low: 70

Sunday: Hot and humid; High: 83, Low: 69

Monday: Hot and humid; High: 84, Low: 71

Greetings!

If you only looked at the temperatures, you would not believe when I tell you we are in October! The average high this time of year in Kentucky is around 71 degrees with the low of 46. Our low temperature is closer to the average high, which means that our high is well above average. 

But as the 06z NAM is showing that the high around 86 and low in the mid 70s this Friday. Not to mention that the dew points will be around the lower 70s. As a result it may feel close to the lower 90s.

Do you ever ask why we can not have cool temperatures? I did, but looking at the setup it will become clear why this ridiculously hot weather is happening.

The high pressure over Mississippi is one stubborn high pressure and refuses to move. Looking ahead in the models our area gets close to cooler temperature, but then the high pressures regains its grip over the area. As of right now we will not see a real cool down for a couple of weeks.

Summary:

Friday: 87/68

Saturday: 88/67 With a slight chance of thunderstorms

Sunday: 89/68

Good evening folks!!

The warm temperatures from today will continue on into Friday and eventually into the weekend as an area of high pressure dominates the southeast.

Below: Fri 2018-10-05 21Z 2 m AGL Temperature

For the remainder of the night, skies should remain clear and conditions will be dry. As the morning hours near, some light fog could develop across southcentral Kentucky, low temperature for the morning should remain in the 60s. For tomorrow, there is a slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours as a pesky cold front gets picked up by an upper-level shortwave and move on out of here. Highs tomorrow will be very similar to today’s, topping out in the upper 80s, could see a few 90s spotted on the map.

The weekend will be a toasting one, as the area of high pressure slightly moves towards the east into the Carolinas. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s with morning lows in the 60s. If you plan on being outside this weekend, remember to stay hydrated with lots of fluids.

Below: Sat 2018-10-06 850 mb Temperature Anomaly

Forecast:

Tomorrow: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but skies will remain partly cloudy. The high temperature will be 88°, calm winds at 5-7 mph.

Friday night: Mostly clear skies with a low in the middle 60s, calm winds at 3-5 mph.

Saturday: Slight chance of showers with mostly clear skies throughout the day. The high will be right around 88° with calm winds at 5-7 mph.