WKU Meteorology

With the first week in the rear view mirror, the start of the new work week presented a dilemma for the storm chase team. The previous day, we decided to spend the night in Limon, Colorado in order to be within driving distance of two potential chase targets: either east-central New Mexico or northeastern Colorado/southwestern Nebraska/southeastern Wyoming.

May 21 12Z RAP Surface Moisture Convergence, valid for 22Z (4pm MT). Notice the greater moisture convergence over central New Mexico. Also near Cheyenne (thanks to the Cheyenne Ridge)

The decision wasn’t easy as the best forcing for thunderstorms was across eastern New Mexico but the best ingredients like instability, moisture convergence and upper-level shear were across northeastern Colorado, stretching into western Nebraska and into southeastern Wyoming. The limiting factors, however, included a lack of very deep moisture and the lack of low-level wind shear. Winds at 500 MB were around 40-45 knots, while they dropped off to only 10-15 knots at the surface. Essentially, we were more likely to see storms in New Mexico, but they would congeal into a messy line too quickly. In addition, chasing down south would put us out of position for future chase days in the northern plains. Storms in the tri-state target would be less numerous but more photogenic, since they would likely be low-precipitation supercells that have a tendency to be picturesque.

After the forecast discussion wrapped up around 9:30am Durkee went back to Grady to hammer out the logistics, we departed from the hotel around 11:00am. After a no-hurry lunch at Subway in Fort Morgan, Colorado, we moved toward our northern target and even a little farther north, intending to set up near Cheyenne, Wyoming.

The extent of May 21’s travel. Map created by Carson Meredith.

Finally, around 3:30pm MDT, we ran across a nice-looking cell on the interstate outside of Cheyenne. While it never produced severe weather, it was a pretty sight to look at.

Thunderstorm near Cheyenne, Wyoming. May 21, 2018 around 3:30pm MT.

As this storm began to weaken, we were in striking distance of another storm around 30-40 minutes to the north, closer to Chugwater and Wheatland. This storm did go severe-warned for a time and dropped some small to medium-sized hail that collected on the ground. We did stop to take come pictures of the hail and make a report to the National Weather Service.

Thunderstorm near Wheatland, Wyoming. May 21, 2018 at 5:43pm.

Quarter to half dollar sized hail from near Wheatland, Wyoming. May 21, 2018 at 5:42pm.

Hail collected on the ground in Wheatland, Wyoming. May 21, 2018 at 5:29pm.

After this thunderstorm began to dissipate as well, we started moving back south toward our hotel in Cheyenne and ran into another cell just east of the city. This thunderstorm was rotating well for a little bit of time but never produced a tornado. Shortly after we pulled over at a Port of Entry to watch the storm, it began to quickly fall apart.

Rotating thunderstorm near Cheyenne, Wyoming. May 21, 2018 at 7:00pm.

Weakening thunderstorm near Cheyenne, Wyoming. May 21, 2018 at 7:12pm

Weakening thunderstorm near Cheyenne, Wyoming. May 21, 2018 at 7:17pm

Once this storm moved off to the east and dissipated, we moved on to our hotel in Cheyenne to wrap up the first day of week 2.

Travel path for Day 6 form Wichita, KS to Limon, CO.

After the first bust of the storm chase on Saturday, Sunday would prove to be another travel day rather than a chase day. While there were marginal severe weather chances across far southern Texas as well as much of Missouri, both of these locations in relation to where we woke up in Wichita Sunday morning were not logical to travel to. Both locations were very far drives from Wichita and the environment was just not conducive enough to chase in either area of interest. With that in mind, the focus for Sunday became setting ourselves up for the next chase opportunity on Monday.

Initial model guidance for Monday (Day 7) suggested two areas of interest for possible chasing opportunities. The first area is across northeastern Colorado and southwestern Nebraska. The other area is across eastern New Mexico. At the time of our forecast discussion at 9:30 Sunday morning, it was still unclear as to which area would become more primed for chase opportunities on Monday. However, it was clear that the strategy for the day would be to travel towards those two areas of interest and find a middle point to stay the night that would allow us to pivot to whichever location we chose to be the more favorable chasing environment. After much discussion, we decided that Limon, Colorado would suit our needs for the night. Limon is about a 6-hour drive from Wichita and sets us up nicely for either of the two chase opportunities on Monday. A decision on where we will try to chase will be made during our Monday morning forecast discussion.

With the decision settled, we departed Wichita just before noon Sunday. Much of the ride to Limon was very quiet, as most of us took the opportunity of the inactive weather to catch some extra sleep on the ride westward. In the meantime, we made a stop at Qdoba in Salina, Kansas for lunch around 1:30 Sunday afternoon. A couple hours later, we stopped briefly in Hays, Kansas to meet some of Grady Dixon’s relatives and to have some time to stretch our legs before the rest of the ride. We arrived in Limon by 6:30 Mountain Time or 7:30 Central Time. Dinner was at the South Side Food and Drink, a family-owned restaurant on Main Street in Limon. They have a wide variety of food options that everyone will enjoy. So if you are ever traveling towards Denver (or perhaps on a storm chase trip of your own!), be sure to stop by South Side for a nice meal.

With that, the first week of our storm chase trip is in the books. Although most of the severe weather threats have been categorized as marginal or slight by the SPC, we have still had some great chase opportunities over the first week as well as some great sight-seeing experiences. The biggest highlight so far is the landspout tornadoes near Syracuse, Kansas on Friday evening (Day 4). We also saw an incredible lightning show and shelf cloud from the southern tail of a bow echo trekking across northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska and even a hail producing storm across eastern New Mexico. We have also seen a spectacular Rocky Mountain sunset and even climbed the Capulin volcano in New Mexico! Here are a few pictures capturing some of the big moments from the first week of our trip.

Mammatus clouds over the Big Texan in Amarillo, TX (May 15, 2018).

Panoramic view from the peak of the extinct Capulin volcano in Capulin, NM (May 16, 2018).

Sunset over the Rocky Mountains from Castle Rock, CO (May 16. 2018).

The sun begins to set as a bow echo churns across western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado (May 17, 2018).

A landspout tornado touches down just to the west of Syracuse, Kansas (May 18, 2018).

All things considered, this first week has been an incredible start to our storm chase and we can’t wait to see what the second half of our trip has in store. The chasing continues on Monday!

-Carson Meredith

We woke up this morning in Garden City, Kansas to what seemed like the best chasing opportunity of the trip thus far. We had to get a move on as we had a decent distance to cover so we had a mobile FD in the van as we drove east.  Large hail and even tornadogenesis are possible in eastern/northeastern Kansas but should fairly quickly merge into a messy HP mesoscale convective system. The window (both spatially and temporally) to catch these discrete cells is very small so we have to be in the right place at the right time. A logistical concern that we have is chaser convergence; it’s been a slow season, it’s the weekend, and we are near a couple different large population centers. My initial lunch target is Salina, KS and we stopped at the famous Cozy burgers, a storm chase favorite!

After lunch we became torn over whether to go north where it looked best on satellite with spreading mid-level winds, or go southeast where the best surface observations are located. Our plan is to closely watch data and models for an hour and then decide. Based on model output, the northern target area has initiation around 3pm and the southeastern target area has initiation around 5pm and waiting for an hour gives us a better idea of what is going to happen and allows us adequate time to reach either area.  We talk ourselves out of the northern play and begin driving south towards the El Dorado / Newton area. There is already a decent looking storm down there and the surface observations are much better. Oddly enough there is an Undular bore sweeping in that will hopefully stall and act as a boundary for storms to fire and ride along. It could also sweep in too fast and kill storm chances. Up north we were worried that the cold front would arrive too quickly and undercut storms and make them elevated and weak.

We got on and tried to follow multiple storms but as soon as we got on them and they started to look good & became sever e warned, they would fizzle out. Everywhere busted, no storms could survive and sustain themselves for more than a few radar scans. The only plus side to this was that no forecast was right and just about all chasers had a bust day. The exception being the few who stayed down near Fairview, where a tornado warned supercell eventually formed a few hours later. This was pretty frustrating but busts are a good learning experience. I think the storms kept dying because there was virtually no shear in the area and thus couldn’t sustain themselves for very long. Like everybody else, we called it quits and headed back to Wichita and enjoyed a good dinner and some beer with good company. It could’ve been worse!

-Thomas Giebel

After meeting for a FD at a local coffee shop in Ogallala, NE, the team decided to head south towards Lamar, CO given the set-up for the day. Initiation was expected to develop along the armpit of the lee-low that was developing over the state of Colorado with a dry line expected to make its way from eastern Colorado all the way down to the Texas Panhandle. CAPE values were sufficient along the expecting source of lift, there being an expected break in the CAP around 21Z over western Kansas and parts of eastern Colorado, decent simulated dew points in the 50s, and sufficient 500mb wind speeds around 35-40kts.

CAPE and CIN values expected for 21Z by the 12ZNAM-run.

As we moved south towards Lamar, CO, we grabbed a quick bite from McDonald’s and then found ourselves driving through an outflow boundary that had developed in an east-west pattern, which led to our driving into a phenomenal clearing which housed the center of the lee-low while the Red Hot Chilli Peppers played in the background.

Driving over the clearing, approximately around 17-18UTC and the McDonald’s in Burlington, CO.

We eventually made it to Lamar, CO, where the team spent just under an hour waiting for initiation by spending some time at Willow Creek Park.

Willow Park.

Not long afterwards, we immediately began to chase a cell that was developing just outside town and were able to see some rather impressive storm structure as it entered an enriched environment. Several cells were visible to our east but began to resemble a very clustered mode and as such did not become our primary chase targets.

Mammatus clouds ahead of the developing storms outside of Lamar, CO.

View of the storm outside Lamar, CO, as it continued to develop.

Phenomenal supercell time-lapse that was recorded by meteorologist Caitlyn French.

In order to get ahead of it we ended up driving through it and got to experience first-hand just how strong the outflow was on several occasions, including around the time we had finally gotten ahead of it and it was beginning to develop an incredible shelf cloud as we neared the Colorado/Kansas border. The actual shelf cloud itself was by far one of the most impressive structures we have seen thus far on this trip, rivaling and in many ways outpacing the shelf cloud we had seen the night before.

Shelf cloud that developed as we moved east into Kansas.

After the outflow began to kick up the winds again, we began to retreat east towards Garden City, KS but were surprised when chaser Evan Hatter pointed out what ended up being a landspout just outside of Syracuse, KS. We immediately stopped the van, ran out, and were in awe by the landspout and several others that were trying to get going. On top of that, we also called in the landspout, leading to a tornado warning and the flaring of the sirens in Syracuse. Rotation also became very evident as we looked immediately above our heads and were stunned by what we saw.

Landspout just outside Syracuse, KS.

Had the lightning not become so violent, we probably would have stuck around a little longer, but by the time we began to once again drive over to Garden City, KS, the  adrenaline from the culmination of phenomenal storm structure, outflow, rotation, and the landspouts had left us exhausted. Considering we had already seen incredible storm structure earlier that day, the landspout was nothing short of the cherry on top of the milkshake that was Day 4.

Route for Day 2

We woke up in Amarillo, TX, to a slightly difficult decision. We could track south to Lubbock, TX, and possibly see some storms or we could track north toward Colorado to set up for the next day. After some deliberation, we decided that Lubbock didn’t present enough to waste a good travel day to set up for a better next day.

We left from Amarillo and went through New Mexico. We stopped in Clayton, NM, for lunch at a taco stand called Si Senior Tacos. It was a fantastic stop and fueled us for the next few hours!

Si Senior Taco truck in NM (pardon the snapchat filter) and the Taco Plate (was delicious)

After the taco truck stop, we continued to Capulin Volcano National Monument for a quick hike around the rim of the volcano. It was definitely a struggle, even for us experienced Hilltoppers. The combination of dry air and thin air (8,000ft) made for a difficult go.

Capulin Volcano welcome sign

We finally made it to Castle Rock, CO, in time for dinner. We went to the wonderful Rockyard Grill and Brewery. I highly recommend the Yard Burger with bacon. After dinner some went to a local tap house, while the rest of us took a quick walk and then played a game of Jackpot in the pool. It’s a football game where the thrower calls out a point amount and whoever catches it earns those points.

All in all, a great travel and sight-seeing day! We can’t wait to see what the next day has in store for us!

I have enjoyed forecasting the weather this week. It was interesting throughout and kept me on my toes at the beginning.

It has been frigid cold the past couple days with lows yesterday getting down into the 20s.

The Solomon Islands experienced a 7.8 magnitude Earthquake, leaving Hawaii in a Tsunami Watch.

Forecast 12-9-16

Nothing super eventful will happen today as we are set in a high pressure area. A front out west is driving winter weather from Oregon down south into Colorado. We also see snow possibilities to our north in Indiana and Ohio. Arctic winds from the north will make sure we stay cold all day.

Forecast 12-10-16

As we move into Saturday, our winter weather chances increase. Possible snow will move more south towards Kentucky and we will stay in the cold temperatures. Eastern Texas can expect a rainy Saturday.

12-11-16

As we get into Sunday the winter weather chances move even closer to Kentucky. This is where it gets interesting and more difficult to forecast. Winter weather is tricky, even the best forecasters can be caught off guard. With my skills, I will keep an eye of freezing levels in our area.

Expected as of right now, a band of freezing rain will be in between regular rain to the south and snow to the north. This is al happening to our north, depending on the direction of the wind and frontal movement will determine if we get any of this winter weather.

As for your weekend numbers:

Tonight: A frigid night ahead with a low of 20 degrees. This could be lower in localized areas.

Tomorrow: A little warmer with a high near 40 degrees. Low around 27.

Sunday: Snow possible in the early morning that will transition into rain. High around 47 degrees. 50% chance of rain. Low around 43. Higher rain chances in the night.

It has been a blast writing for the blog this semester! Have a safe winter break and a fantastic holiday season!

Cheers.

Forecast 12-7-16

For the first time in a while we have seen the sun  today! Wouldn’t you know it?! After what seemed like a month of straight rain and gloom we finally get a sunny day.

A sunny day right before what is going to be the coldest days we have seen this season.

Yes, starting tonight we are going to see some unseasonably cold temperatures. After Monday’s post the possible winter weather I discussed coming Thursday has dried up with all models agreeing to drier conditions. However it is leaving us with bitter cold temperatures.

After the final cold front passed through, high pressure set up in our region. Even though it is not as sensational as it once was with the possibility of snow, it’s still going to be very cold for our region this time of year.

The cold temperature will be fueled by northerly winds bring that arctic air into Kentucky Thursday into Friday.

The numbers:

Tonight: It starts us off with some cold temperatures tonight going into Thursday. Low of 27 degrees.

Tomorrow: High of 35 expected which is ten degrees cooler than today. Low of a frigid 18 degrees.

I apologize for the lateness of this blog post! I will return Friday with a summary of this week and your weekend forecast.

Cheers.

If you’re reading this and happen to be a student at WKU, happy finals week! If you’re not a student, I hope you have a good week. It is going to be cold.

Keeping up with the forecast discussions released by the NWS Louisville over the past couple of days, this week is going to be interesting.

My posts this week will all build on one another, I may also post more than I usually do as I get more information on the forecast. Plus, I have more free time, so why not?

Right now Bowling Green is sat in the middle of some very fast upper level winds. These winds are from the south and as I move down the atmosphere, they stay coming from the south until I reach 1000mb. At 850mb there is a center of high pressure directly to our northwest that is going to hold our cold temperatures for today.

You have probably heard the term “arctic blast” over the past few days. Basically upper level winds form the north are going to move in our direction, bringing very cold temperatures. What fun.

As for today, it’s going to be very gloomy and you should not rule out rain. Rain is possible all day so be prepared. Here is a map:

WPC Forecast Map 12-5-16

Even though the colors aren’t correct, it still tells you the good story. Possible rain as the remnants of that cold front finally dissipate away. Leaving us cold and wet, sometimes the weather is mean. It does not show the center of high pressure that is just to the north of Paducah, but that’s because it is only seen at 850mb and below, it is fairly insignificant.

Now here are some more maps, I usually don’t do this but since the weather is interesting, I want to go into more detail.

WPC Forecast Map 12-6-16

Yay, more rain. A low pressure system will power a cold front, bringing us more rain. Remember those winds from the south, those carry moisture from the Gulf Coast, you can also thank those winds for more rain! You also start seeing winter weather showing up close to Kentucky, freezing rain possible in West Virginia.

One more map and I’ll get on with today’s numbers.

WPC Forecast 12-7-16

That snow is just going to cuddle up right next to us. As of right now, the models are in disagreement with what is actually going to happen. Fore Wednesday and Thursday here is what the models are suggesting. Now, only time will tell and I will give more details with a much more confident prediction as we get closer.

GFS(Global Model): Running fairly fry with precipitable water which is a good representation on how moist the atmosphere is. It is also running dry with accumulated precipitation

NAM(North American): Running moist on both precipitable water and accumulated precipitation.

I do not have access to the Euro Model(ECMWF) however, from forecast discussions I have read from the NWS it is also running moist.

NOW the numbers!

Today: High of 50 degrees with continued chances of rain.

Tonight: Low of 46 degrees and it will rain tonight.

Tomorrow: High around 50 degrees. More rain likely.

Thanks for reading, I will post more as more information is gathered.

Cheers.