WKU Meteorology

This Evening: Low-52

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures have rebounded quite nicely all the way into the upper 70’s. These temperatures combined with the ample sunshine have really made today a very nice day to be outside.

Tomorrow: High-83 Low-55

As an area of surface high pressure moves off to our east, temperatures look to warm a few degrees for our Tuesday. These forecast temperatures in the low 80’s combined with sunny skies will make tomorrow yet another great day to be out and about.

Wednesday: High-85 Low-62

Temperatures for our Wednesday look to warm even more from Tuesday as that previously mentioned surface high moves even further to our east, allowing for a southerly flow to develop over our region. Clear skies are yet again expected for our Wednesday, and this in conjunction with these forecast temperatures look to make Wednesday another great day to get outside.

Weekly Outlook:

This Evening: Low- 48

Today has been the coolest day we’ve had in a while. We’ve been having a few showers throughout the afternoon. Our high was in the mid-70’s. There’s a chance for scattered showers this evening.

Tomorrow: High- 70  Low- 47

NWS National Forecast

Monday: High- 80  Low- 53

Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Low- 63

Today was definitely cooler than it has been over the past week. The cold front that came through yesterday brought in much needed rain and cooler temperatures. We saw a high temperature of about 89 today, which was a welcome relief.

Tomorrow: High- 80 Low- 57

We have another chance for rain tomorrow afternoon starting in the afternoon. A good majority of the rain will hit about 4pm, according to the current NAM runs. The cause of this is another cold front moving through the area on Friday.

NWS National Forecast

NAM Simulated Radar Activity

A second line could form from some of the scattered showers behind the main line around 10pm, according to the NAM and other forecasts. These should begin to work their way out overnight and leave us with a dry Saturday morning.

NAM Simulated Radar Reflectivity

Saturday: High- 68 Low- 50

Today: High- 98° Low- 67°

Today was and still is a very hot day here in Bowling Green, KY.

NWS National Forecast

The dominating high pressure forced for mostly sunny skies in the region. Fortunately, the system is moving on to make room for a cold front that could possibly bring us some rain!

 Wednesday: High- 86° Low-66°

Tomorrow is showing promise for a cool down as the cold front moves in and brings with it a chance of rain.

NWS National Forecast

According to the NAM, we should start to see spotty showers around 6am Wednesday morning. The main line of rain should move in soon after. We will have to keep an eye out for precipitation amounts as the ground could be unable to absorb the full amount of rain at that time.

NAM Simulated Radar Reflectivity

The greatest chance for rain will begin in the late afternoon/ early evening, so make sure to take your umbrella with you for the commute home.

Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 69. South wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83.

Saturday May 30th:

The last two days of our trip was packed with fun. The group woke up in the city of Denver, CO on Saturday. With a lull in severe weather, we decided to take the day to sightsee through the state of Colorado. We visited the famous Red Rock Amphitheatre, which is 10 miles west of Denver. Many music enthusiasts dream of attending a concert at Red Rock.  Red Rock hosts many famous musical artists of all genres in an open air amphitheatre.

The students enjoying their music and geology lesson at the Red Rock Amphitheatre

After spending time at Red Rock, the group departed west to ascend into the snow capped Rocky Mountains. None of the eight students have ever visited the mountain range, so this was a first for many. After climbing to almost 12,000 feet above sea level the students got out of the van and enjoyed the snow in the middle of May.

Panorama of the view of our first stop in the Rocky Mountains.

The group standing near an open ski resort in the Rocky Mountains.

After our first stop we made our visit to the Continental Divide.

Students at the Continental Divide.

After making our stop to the Continental Divide, and taking a chance to throw a few snowballs, the group decided to make a stop in Golden, CO to eat lunch at a delicious Middle Eastern restaurant.

After lunch we had to start pushing eastward in order to deliver Dr. Grady Dixon back to his family in Hays, KS. We arrived in Hays right before Dusk, and ate supper at a local dive.

Picture with Dr. Dixon before we gave our final goodbyes.

After supper the group pushed eastward to Salina, KS in order to get a head start for the next days trek to Bowling Green, KY.

Sunday May 31:

The group awoke in Salina, KS and became home bound around 9am. After a long few hours in the van, the group stopped for lunch in Columbia, MO and met up with a fellow WKU Meteorology and Storm Chase Alumni, Ryan Difani.

The group with alumni, Ryan Difani at a Dairy Queen in Columbia, MO.

After lunch, the group was over halfway home! But before getting back to Bowling Green, the group stopped for a tasty supper at Taco Johns in Henderson, KY. After finishing supper, the group arrived back in Bowling Green at 9:30 pm.

In summary the group traveled 7,191 miles through nine states over the time span of two weeks.  We observed several types of storms such as high precipitation supercells, low precipitation supercells, classic supercells, and squall lines. We also saw accumulated hail and two tornadoes! Although forecasts were difficult and frustrating at times, the trip itself was successful and enjoyable for the entire group and proved to be a good learning experience for everyone.

Today proved to be difficult in terms of an obvious forecast, but we took advantage of several opportunities to travel and explore new areas for our trip across the southwest US and document even more severe weather. We had a couple of different options for our target area; one being the southwest Texas panhandle near Snyder, TX where outflow boundaries and other thunderstorm ingredients were present, and northeast New Mexico between Clayton and Des Moines. This region favored convective activity throughout consistent model runs on the HRRR and NAM 4K, our favored high resolution models.

We voted on heading to New Mexico this morning after a lot of debate, due to the fact that despite lower instability and moisture values, upper-air support favored thunderstorm activity on the leeward side of the mountains in this region. Below is a surface analysis that covers a few fundamental forecast variables we discussed.

Surface analysis showing observations valid at 1200 Z and upper-air diagnostics valid for 0000 Z today.

Red dashed lines show the locations of two outflow boundaries from previous thunderstorm activity, and the arrows show the general direction and magnitude of jet stream flow across the area. Our two initial target areas are shown by the stars.

Northwest flow across the panhandle is that primary reason we decided to head northwest and take advantage of the photogenic landscape of the High Plains. Turns out convective models were correct in their output throughout the day and we had several opportunities to grab some very scenic views in NE New Mexico.

The view of the landscape in NE New Mexico as we made our way to our selected target

A great bit of luck allowed us the opportunity to explore the Capulin Volcano, where we were able to view a severe thunderstorm producing hail and gusty winds from over 8,000 ft in elevation! This was very enjoyable because we got to hike up to the top of the rim and look into the caldera of the extinct volcano, what a view!

View from atop the Capulin Volcano in NE New Mexico

After departing from the Capulin volcano, we drove through the northern portion of New Mexico and entered Colorado where we saw the beautiful snow capped Rocky Mountains. After driving along the interstate for sometime, convection started coming off the mountains and of course we decided to chase it!

Second storm we chased for the day north of Trinidad, CO

This cell soon fizzled out and we kept trucking along towards the city of Denver, our stop for the night. Before reaching Denver, more storms initiated to our northeast and we chased them. The first one fizzled out before reaching it. The second one produced 4-6 inches or more of accumulated hail and made the Colorado countryside look as if it were covered in snow!

Hail along a roadway in central Colorado

After plowing through over 4+” of hail accumulation, it was time to fuel up and head for our hotel south of Denver, CO where we were able took look back on our day, and our trip in general. The atmosphere seems to be quietening down for tomorrow, which will likely be used as a day travel, and any observations of storms along the way. We’ve had a very busy couple of weeks in The Plains and have seen many different forms of severe weather.

Stay tuned to @wkustormchase on Twitter for live updates throughout our journey and see what we may get ourselves into tomorrow! – AS, MM

We woke up in Pampa, TX with a difficult forecast ahead of us. Below is a surface composite from the morning. Isodrosotherms (green) showed rich moisture nosing into the central plains with dewpoints reaching into the upper 50’s in the Texas Panhandle. 500mb jet (yellow) showed southwest flow and was forecast around 40kts, which would provide ample upper-level support. The 850mb jet (orange) was forecast to be nearing 30kts out of the southern and increasing into the evening over the Texas Panhandle. The purple oval indicates where the greatest helicity was expected and the purple line in western New Mexico showed where the dryline was. Due to a diffuse dryline and lack of a frontal lifting system, we decided it best to monitor outflow boundaries from the morning precipitation. A target of Elkhart, KS was used to monitor these boundaries but decided it best to stop in Guymon, OK.

Composite Surface Analysis

Once we arrived in Guymon around 11 AM, we noticed an outflow boundary interacting with the dryline, leading to the initation of thunderstorms over southeastern Colorado. West of Campo, CO we stumbled upon a tarantula as well as a great display of mammatus clouds.

Big, Creepy Spider

Mammatus Clouds

We then departed for the southern end of a line segment to chase a storm near Dalhart, TX. As we approached the storm, we saw a great whale’s mouth cloud formation, as well as a shelf cloud. This storm produced a brief wall cloud, as well as a photogenic, sunlit hail shaft.

Whale’s Mouth

Shelf Cloud

Backlit Wall Cloud

Sun Rays Peaking Through Clouds

Hail Shaft

Dissipating Hail Shaft

We are staying the night in Dumas, TX and will likely be chasing in western Texas once again on Friday.

Today began bright and early in Gainesville, Texas. After a morning forecast discussion, we decided to head toward the town of Graham, TX. This would place us in a good area to await initiation of the storms that afternoon. For the first time in several days, the upper and lower atmosphere were beginning to show a more favorable environtment for severe weather. The 250mb winds (blue arrow) shifted from southerly to westerly as did the 500mb winds. The Low Level Jet (yellow arrow) also returned to played a helpful role today with 30 knot winds out of the southeast drawing moisture out of the gulf. This brought in greater than 60°F dewpoints (green line) over much of eastern Texas providing significant moisture for the region.  The greatest region of instability is highlighted in the orange half circle. This would eventually provide the necessary lift to produce the storms. The red box shows the target area of Graham, TX just to the east of Abilene.

After roughly a two hour drive from Gainesville to just south of Graham, we stopped for lunch at Subway and headed to a local park to eat and watch the sky for storms beginning to pop up. It was not long before we headed back to the gas station to Rain-X the windows and get gas in preperation for the chase. Around 2:30 pm we began to notice one cell to the north around Breckenridge.

For the first time on the trip, we were able to watch the this storm develope while we sat in a hotel parking lot. We saw it initiate out the front window of the van and were able to keep an eye on it on the radar until the decision was made to follow this storm. Very quickly after the storm formed, a severe thuderstorm warning was placed on it, quickly followed by a tornado warning. We chased this cell from just north east of Breckenridge, all the way to Stephenville for the night.

Due to the capping that did not erode until late in the afternoon, this cell was able to form and stay in a clean environment for longer before forming a line. Through much of the day, there was a lack of speed shear in the environment.  This caused the cell to be a high precipitation cell with a very closesly located updraft and downdraft. A tornado was confirmed by chaser, but we could not see it due to the curtains of rain surrounding the storm for most of the day.

Photo Courtesy of DJ Lipps

When we arrived in Stephenville for the night, the storm had lost its severe and tornado warnings. We unloaded our things and allowed the much weakend storm to pass over us in the van. Due to the substantial energy in the storm, lightning was striking well into the night and could be seen even when the storm was long gone.

Today we woke up in Altus, Oklahoma with the intentions of traveling south for the day’s chase. As seen in the composite map below, there was sufficient support for a good chase day. 500mb wind flow (blue arrow) was out of the southwest with a jet streak moving northeastward through Texas. 850mb wind flow (orange arrow) was out of the southeast with a low-level jet max also located in mid Texas. Plenty of moisture was located in Texas today as seen by the 60 degree dewpoint line (in green) extending as far west as the Abilene area. Likewise, the dry line (brown dash) was located just to the west of 60 degree dewpoints, providing a nice moisture gradient. The area of greatest of instability (dark blue circle) was located a tad east of Abilene and the area of greatest helicity (pink circle) was located to the south. With these factors in mind and better chasing terrain west of Dallas/Fort Worth, the Abilene area was chosen as the target city (red box). Simulated reflectivity models suggested a clustering of storms moving through this area around noon and SPC issued a moderate risk for east central Texas with Abilene in the enhanced risk area.

Storms had already started to fire early in the morning and we were unable to make the 2.5 hour drive from Altus to Abilene in time to intercept the cluster of storms. Instead, we drove southeast to position ourselves in front of the line of storms. On the way, we saw great mammatus formation on the front edge of the storm.

Tori Hampton

We stopped in Weatherford, TX to grab a quick lunch and proceeded south. The linear system started to break apart and multiple tornado vortex signatures were detected, one of which we followed to the outskirts of Granbury. We were unable to see any funnel cloud formation, however we did get some amazing pictures of the shelf cloud as it was moving toward us.

Tori Hampton

We stopped following the storms as they moved northeast into non-ideal chasing terrain. We decided to call it a day and head north to Gainesville, TX to stay the night.