WKU Meteorology

Discussion:

A weak cold front will be passing through the area tonight(Tuesday) and into tomorrow morning. With the passage of this front, comes a significant amount of rain. Anywhere from 1-2″ of rain is expected to fall by Wednesday night. The rain will not cease at this point. There continues to be a slight chance of rain throughout Thursday as well. This cold front is associated with a low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes Region of the United States. This will continue to weaken as time progresses due to upper level forcing.  Another weak secondary front will form behind this first cold front that will bring the rain chances for Thursday. Once this passes through, temperatures will cool, but the sun will return for Friday. Friday will have the lowest high temperature for the week topping out around 50°. Temperatures will remain in the mid to low 50s for the rest of the week with lows dipping down mid 30s.

Image above courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center showing current frontal positions over the United States.

Week at a Glance:

Tuesday Night: Low of 53°. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall totals between a quarter and half an inch.

Wednesday: High of 58°. Chance of rain 80%. New rainfall amounts reaching a half inch.

Wednesday Night: Low of 49°. Chance of rain 50%. Rain fall amounts of a tenth of an inch.

Thursday: High 53°. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday Night: Low of 37°. Low chance of rain continues with minimal accumulation. Light wind.

Friday: High of 50 under mostly sunny skies.

Bowling Green is currently 50 degrees with a light northwest wind. It is drizzly outside, as a cold front is just to our north and is providing enough forcing for some light rain showers. A deep upper-level trough is situated over the eastern U.S. and is pulling extremely cold Canadian air down into our area tonight and tomorrow. The 250 mb heights (weather.cod.edu) show the deep trough that will be impacting us over the weekend.

Temperatures will plummet today and  tomorrow when this cold front moves through. There have been rumors of possible snowfall in the forecast for tonight; however, this only applies to eastern Kentucky. Higher elevations east of I-75 could see some snowfall with tonight’s showers, but as for us, we will probably only be seeing light rain and a possible wintry mix as nighttime lows drop to slightly above freezing.  The Simulated Reflectivity for around 10pm tonight shows most of the precipitation occurring east of Bowling Green.

After this system moves through, a strong upper-level ridge will begin moving into the area Sunday and early next week. This will bring a surface high pressure and warmer temperatures in the mid-60s. We’ll see a brief glimpse of winter this weekend, but it won’t last for long.

Have a great weekend and remember to set your clocks back on Saturday night!

Bowling Green’s 5-day Forecast (NWS):

•  Tonight: A slight chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after 9pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Saturday Night: Areas of frost after 1am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 27. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
• Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 52. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
• Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
• Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
• Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
• Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
• Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
• Wednesday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

The leaves are falling and so are the temperatures, at least for this week. Bowling Green is currently 60 degrees and overcast with a moderate northwest wind. An upper-level trough is positioned over the eastern U.S. and the associated cold front sits just to our south which can be seen in the NOAA Surface Analysis from 18z:

Temperatures have dropped significantly since yesterday when we saw a high of 82. Temperatures will continue to gradually cool down throughout the week with a high pressure system moving into the area, bringing sunny skies and cooler weather. The low pressure system responsible for the cold front that just moved through will continue circling to our north and will receive additional upper-level forcing later in the week that will give us another cold front late in the day on Friday. This cold front will bring already decreasing temperatures even lower and we could see temperatures very close to freezing Friday night into Saturday morning

(GFS Surface Temps around midnight Friday)

Enjoy the cooler temperatures this week as we close out October with more fall-like weather. Have a great rest of the week!

Bowling Green’s 3-Day Forecast (NWS):

• Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
• Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 64. Light west wind becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
• Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 60. Light and variable wind.
• Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
• Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
• Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Bowling Green is currently 76 degrees and sunny, with a light southwest wind. These temperatures are almost 10 degrees warmer than the average temperature for late October. According to climatology records, we could come close to breaking the record high temperature of 87 degrees (1919)  for October 27. The latest surface analysis from NOAA shows a nice high pressure system centered over Kentucky, which is responsible for the southerly wind flow here in Bowling Green.

As seen in the figure, a warm front will begin making its way into the region tomorrow and we should see more humid air being funneled into Kentucky. Expect fog in low-lying areas tomorrow morning as low temperatures dip slightly below dewpoint. Tomorrow will be much more cloudy and unseasonably warm with a south wind becoming stronger in the afternoon.

Behind this warm front is an upper-level trough that will bring a low pressure system and associated cold front into the area on Tuesday. This will bring possible thunderstorms and heavy rain Tuesday afternoon. The upper-level trough will stay positioned over the eastern U.S. for most of the latter part of the week until a secondary jet streak begins to provide additional forcing that will deepen the trough even more and bring much cooler temperatures into the area. Until then, here’s what to expect for the early part of the week:

• Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind.
• Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight.
• Monday: Sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
• Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South wind around 11 mph.
• Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 75. South wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
• Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
• Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Today has been quite the Sunday, with calm winds, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the low 60’s. This sun has felt great after a period of mostly cloudy skies this past week or so. Tomorrow will feature a few small rain chances, but starting Tuesday, clear skies will be the main story.

A disturbance will move through the area tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will accompany this upper level low, but the best shot for rain will be just to our north and east.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity 10 AM Tomorrow

A cold front will swing through the state tomorrow evening and bring with it another shot for some light showers. Any shower activity will be light and many areas may not see rain at all. Once again the biggest threat for rain will be to our north and east.

NWS Surface Map Monday Evening

Behind that front will be an area of high pressure settling in. This will keep the area mostly sunny and dry for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will remain near average for this time of year. Here is the 6 – 10 day probability of below average precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center, with Bowling Green in the greater than 60% chance for below average precip.

CPC Probability of Below Average Precipitation

5 Day Forecast

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Light and variable wind.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Light northwest wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind 3 to 5 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 59.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 62.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

The clouds hung around a little longer than expected after that cold front moved through last night.  Tomorrow, however, will be a clearer as high pressure continues to build in from the west and sunny skies become more prominent.  Despite the sunshine, temperatures will not be much warmer.

Map of temperature departure from average courtesy of Intellicast.

We are still under a rather cold air mass, so our high temperatures will once again only make it into the low 60s.  As shown in the graphic above, that is about 10° below what would be considered normal or average for this time of year.  Similarly, our low temperatures are going to be dipping into the upper 30s where they would normally be in the mid-40s.  So, although it may look warm and sunny tomorrow, you will probably want to grab a light jacket because it will be a bit on the cool side.

Surface forecast map for the morning of Monday, October 20th courtesy of Intellicast.

Looking ahead, we do still have a slight chance for showers on Monday.  As shown in the graphic above, a weak cold front will be moving through, but much of the rain will be to our north.  However, there is another high pressure system that will be following right behind it.  So, our overall weather pattern will be much of the same for at least the first half of the week.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 38°, and light winds out of the north.

Tomorrow:  Sunny skies, highs near 62°, and light winds out of the north.

Tomorrow Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 40°, and calm winds.

It has been a gorgeous day today!  As shown in the graphic below, it is still a rather comfortable 65° in Bowling Green, and high temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s across the area.  A dry cold front will be moving through this evening, and a drier cooler air mass is moving in right behind it.  So, tonight will be rather chilly, and tomorrow will not be quite as warm today.

High Temperature Map Courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet

Although it will be a bit cooler, this weekend will still be beautiful!  High pressure is also going to build in from the west and keep our weather clear for a few days.  So, we have mostly clear skies and brisk autumn air to look forward to for the weekend.

Looking ahead, we have a slight chance for showers on Monday.  However, the pattern for the next few days looks to be fairly consistent with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows dipping into the 40s and even upper 30s.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the northwest at around 3-5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Partly cloudy skies, highs near 62°, and winds out of the northwest at around 5-8 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Mostly clear skies, lows near 37°, and light winds out of the NNW.