WKU Meteorology

Sunshine and partly cloudy skies will help temperatures reach the upper 40’s today as the high pressure system in the Great Lakes region continues to push eastward. Look for clouds to increase as the day progresses and conditions to become progressively worse from Saturday night on. Winds will shift to a southwesterly flow later today followed by a small disturbance pushing through tonight and with it a small scattered amount of precipitation is expected. Southwesterly winds will greet Saturday and help temperatures rise above 50 degrees in the afternoon but cloudiness will vary across the region, so if the sun is able to peak out of the clouds for an extended period of time we could see temperatures reach the mid-50’s. Arctic air will push in from the northwest again later Saturday bringing the chance of light precipitation on Saturday night. As of now our region is in a Winter Storm Watch and could see significant ice and snow accumulations Sunday night into Monday. However, not much will be said about the upcoming event because forecast are still very uncertain. This potential winter weather maker is still off the coast of California, so it has not yet been sampled well enough for our Numerical Models. Current models now do a have a low pressure system tracking northeast from Texas to off the coast of the Carolinas. The QPF model shows a heavy amount of precipitation falling during this event, reaching above 2in, but sleet/snow/ice amounts will vary greatly depending on the thermodynamic set up as the system progresses through. 

Into Monday morning as the system passes cold air from the north-northwest will cause any remaining precipitation to fall as snow but expect the atmosphere to dry out into Monday night. Again, I will not mention snow/ice fall totals right now but it would be a great idea to keep an eye on the system as Sunday approaches. You can stay update with this system and future weather on our weather accounts found on Twitter, @WarrenCountyWX, and Facebook, Warren County WX.

Daily Forecast:

Today: Partly sunny skies, with a increasing clouds and a high of  47 degrees. Southeast wind from 7-9mph.

Tonight: Low of 37 degrees and a 30% chance of precipitation.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 53 degrees and winds between 5-8mph. 20% chance of precipitation.

Saturday night: Cloudy, with a low of 44 degrees and a 40% chance of precipitation.

Sunday: High of 49 with rain expected after 7am with a 90% chance of precipitation. South winds at 5-7mph will transition to west in the late afternoon.

Sunday night: Low around 31 with rain before 3am expected to transition to freezing rain and sleet. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday: High sticking around 31 with freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then likely transitioning to snow after. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday night: Partly cloudy with a low near 9 degrees and snow likely. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Partly sunny skies will bring high temperatures around 44 degrees for Bowling Green today as high pressure continues to nose in from the northwest. Last weekend’s spring teaser was short lived as the possibility of minor accumulations of snow are possible through tonight. A relatively weak wave in the upper portion of the atmosphere will sweep through tonight bringing with it the chance of snow. Bowling Green will only see a slight dusting, while areas to the east such as Lexington could see up to an inch. Accompanying the high pressure tonight will be a northwesterly wind around 6-11mph, with gusts reaching the lower 20’s. Wind chill associated with tonight’s low temperature of 18 degrees could drop temperatures down to single digits for our area.

As the high pressure settles in through early Wednesday, expect the skies to clear and temperatures to reach into the mid twenties, although wind chill values could keep us in the single digits. If you’re going to be outside be sure to bundle to up! Temperatures look to stay below normal Wednesday but will be accompanied by sunny skies. Thursday is looking to be slightly warmer, although still chilly, as another cold front sweeps through our region. High pressure begins to shift east on Friday and followed behind it is another weather producing system that looks to bring rain and possibly a few snow flakes to our region.

Daily Forecast:

Tuesday: Skies look to remain partly sunny with highs in the mid-40’s.

Tuesday Night: Minor snow accumulation with a low around 18 degrees and winds out of the northwest at 6-11mph. Gust could reach the lower 20’s.

Wednesday: Cold but sunny skies with a high of 27 degrees. North wind 7-10 will bring wind chill temperatures into the single digits.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies and a low of 18 degrees. Wind chill temps could still be in the single digits but expect winds to shift out of the southwest after midnight.

Thursday: Cold and sunny with a high of 37 degrees.  8-13 mph southwest winds will shift from the north in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies with a low around 17 degrees.

Friday: Increasing clouds and a high around 40 degrees.

Friday Night: Chance of rain/snow mix with a low at 31 degrees. Chance of precipitation 50%.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and a high of 43.

Saturday Night: Low around 30 degrees with a slight chance of rain and snow.

Be sure to check out our other links to stay updated on current conditions.

Weather Links:

Twitter: @WarrenCountyWX

Facebook: Warren County WX

The sunshine today will help to warm us to near 60 degrees for the second day in a row! Tomorrow we may be looking at highs in the low 70s. But the warm air comes with a price as severe storms will begin to roll in late in the afternoon.

What can we expect?

Rain showers will sweep through the area periodically throughout your Thursday, so make sure and pack an umbrella if you will be heading to work or class tomorrow.

Isolated Super cells may form out ahead of the main line of storms during the mid to late afternoon. If this does happen, tornadoes would become a threat. Later in the evening, a squall line will swing through, delivering heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds.

Here is the SPC day 2 outlook:

Bowling Green is included in the 30% risk for severe storms as well as the thatched area. The thatched area is an area where an upgraded risk (to moderate) is possible.

The 4 km NAM shows super cells out in front of the main line to be a real possibility.

Based on the NAM, isolated storms could arrive mid afternoon, bringing an enhanced tornado threat to the region.

Severe storm ingredients:

Plenty of moisture and warm air will be in the area tomorrow. Surface winds will be strong throughout the day. An intense negatively tilted trough will be shifting east out of the plains Thursday, meanwhile a surface low will rapidly intensify and push Northeast toward the Great Lakes. Storms will intensify in this region out ahead of the cold front.

CAPE (convective available potential energy) is the fuel for storms. The NAM and GFS have continued to increase the instability for later tomorrow.

The NAM shows CAPE values between 750-1000 at 6pm, more than sufficient for fueling severe storms.

Low level helicity values of over 300 J/kg will be in place around the 6pm time frame. Low level helicity values over 300 J/kg are favorable for super cell development.

Here is a look at the super cell composite for 6pm and significant tornado parameter at the same time.

The super cell composite points toward favorable conditions for super cells to develop after 5pm in our area. The significant tornado parameter  shows values near 4 just to the west of the area and heading east. This puts Bowling Green at a low end moderate risk for an EF2 tornado or greater.

The wind shear tomorrow will be very strong. Wind shear is crucial for the development of rotating updrafts. The more sheared an environment is, the higher the likelihood of tornado development is. Shear also helps keep storms isolated instead of forming a squall line.

Here is the bulk shear for 6pm tomorrow:

My thoughts:

This system will impact our area during the late afternoon and evening hours Thursday. The main concern tomorrow will be how many super cells can form out ahead of the main line. If isolated cells do develop, the chance for tornadoes increases. A squall line will likely move through the area during the evening in addition to the isolated storms out in front. While isolated cells will not affect everyone, if the squall line develops this far west, it will effect everyone. Wind damage is the greatest risk with these storms, along with heavy rain. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out, especially if storms can stay isolated through the entire region.

Timing:

Super cells will begin to develop after 5pm.

A squall line may organize after 8pm.

Note: These timing of this event along with the specifications of the storms are not set in stone and can change between today and tomorrow night. Stay alert as tomorrow afternoon draws closer and keep up to date with local weather reports.

Weather Links:

Twitter: @WarrenCountyWX

Facebook: Warren County WX

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Calm wind.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 37. Breezy, with a south wind 19 to 24 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 55. West wind 6 to 11 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Discussion: Happy Thanksgiving!! I hope all are enjoying a cool but sunny Thanksgiving day across south-central Kentucky. Certainly our weather is much better than earlier this week when rain, sleet and snow fell across the area. The heaviest snow fell across eastern Kentucky where some locations picked up as much as 5 inches with several locations seeing a white Thanksgiving. The storm system that brought the active weather has moved well off the east coast by now. After a Wednesday that was a brutal windy, cloudy and cold day and a Thursday that got off to a cold start with a low of 14 at the Bowling Green Airport, skies have cleared and today’s high reached the low 40s. The better weather is thanks to a high pressure which has moved over the south-central US and more sunny weather is ahead thanks to another area of high pressure system is approaching from the Midwest. With high pressure in control, skies will be sunny however temperatures will generally be cool. This means Black Friday shoppers will have to endure a another cold start with lows in the low 20s before temperatures warm to the mid 40s for highs. So bundle up before you head out for those early morning deals!

High pressure will be in control Friday morning which means clear skies, light winds, and cold temperatures for Black Friday morning shoppers! Bundle up!

As the high pressure system moves to our east by Saturday, what is known as the “return-flow” will bring southerly winds and warming temperatures. Highs will return to near 50 as a result Saturday and into Sunday. These warmer  temperatures in the low 50s and the sunny skies should make for a great fall day for the final home game of the season as WKU takes on Arkansas State. The southerly flow will also bring increasing moisture ahead of the next disturbance which will first bring in a few clouds by Sunday. The disturbance will also create a slight chance of showers overnight Sunday into Monday. The next good chance of rain will not occur until midweek next week.

Daily Forecast:

Thanksgiving Night/Black Friday Morning: Cold! Lows will drop to around 21 with nearly calm winds beneath clear skies.

(Black) Friday: Sunny skies with a high around 45. Northeast to east winds at 3-8 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds. Low near 23.

Saturday: Warmer with a high near 52. Mostly sunny skies with south to southwest winds at 8-12 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with a low around 32. South to southwest winds at 3-7 mph.

Sunday: Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy by the afternoon. High near 53.

Sunday Night: 20% chance of a few showers, otherwise cloudy with a low around 42.

Monday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a 30% chance of a few showers. High in the low 50s.

Monday evening update on Winter Weather Possibilities (Update at 8:27 pm)

The wintry weather got a head start this afternoon when a wave of moisture reached into south-central Kentucky and dropped a quick burst of snow. Snow began falling in the Bowling Green area, generally around 3 o’clock and very light snow continued for several hours. Most locations in the bottom two rows of counties in KY saw a dusting to 1 inch. The official measurement for Bowling Green was 1.1 inches of snow. The photo below was sent in by fellow WKU meteorology major Chris Johnson of around 3/4 of inch of snow on an elevated deck in Bowling Green.

Chris Johnson sent in this photo of around 3/4 of an inch of snow from Bowling Green which fell Monday afternoon.

Despite this early round of snow that was unexpected by many, more winter weather is still possible through tomorrow evening. However, what fell this afternoon in south-central Kentucky will probably end up being the main show. Flurries will likely continue overnight before changing over to light drizzle or even light sleet sometime between 9 pm and 2 am. Meanwhile temperatures will be hovering right around freezing; if temperatures stay at or just below freezing obviously this light drizzle could be freezing drizzle. Precipitation intensity should increase from south to north across south-central Kentucky after 3 am especially into mid morning hours from 6 am to 9 am. Temperatures will have risen above freezing by this point and thus rain is expected though sleet could very well and is expected to mix in at times especially early. A cold rain with temperatures in the mid 30s is expected for much of the day Tuesday with as much as 0.25 inches of rain by the afternoon. After 3 pm cooler air will once again be filtering into the area and thus a transitions to sleet and snow is expected. Snow could fall for a few hours tomorrow afternoon between 3 pm and 8 pm with a dusting to an inch again possible. The heaviest snow will fall just to our east of our area. 2-5 inches is possible as close as the I-75 corridor including Somerset and Lexington; areas in the eastern Kentucky mountains could see even higher accumulations. The heaviest snow in these areas will fall in these areas between 6 pm and 6 am so be careful if traveling east tomorrow evening into tomorrow night for the Thanksgiving holiday.

High-Res Nam forecasts some light snow in the areas by tomorrow around 6 pm.

A moderate to heavy band of snow is forecast to develop just to our east along the I-75 corridor by tomorrow evening. This is the High-Res Nam model valid for 11 pm Tuesday night.

Temperatures will fall to around the freezing mark, especially so as the evening progresses and will fall below freezing after 6 pm so it is possible that a few minor slick spots could develop. Expect a few flurries to possibly fall Wednesday morning.

Below is a timeline summary:

8 -10 pm: A few flurries with temperatures hovering around 32. Watch for a few slick spots on the roads.

10 pm – 3 am: A few light flurries/light sleet/light (freezing?) drizzle with temperatures continuing to hover around 32.

3 am – 9 am: Precipitation will intensify and temperatures will warm ever so slightly just above freezing. Precipitation will likely be a mixture of sleet and rain.

9 am – 3 pm: Periods of rain which could be steady at times. Temperatures will warm to near 35-37.

3 pm – 8 pm: Rain will change to light snow (possibly mixed with sleet briefly) which will slowly tapper off into the evening. A dusting to an inch is possible around BG. Lighter amounts will occur to west of I-65 and higher amounts will occur east of I-65. Temperatures will cool back to around the freezing mark after 6 pm.

After 8 pm: Precipitation will have come to an end and temperatures will drop below freezing; be aware a few minor slick spots could develop. A few flurries could fall Wednesday morning.

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As Thanksgiving approaches, it may be a good time to consider being thankful for coats, sweaters, blankets, and heaters because it has certainly gotten cold here in south-central Kentucky. We woke up to a chilly low in the upper teens in Bowling Green and despite sunny skies today’s temperature’s we have struggled to crack the freezing mark. This will make today the coldest overall day this season. Clouds will begin to increase overnight, which will only allow the temperatures to drop to the low 20s. Why so cold you may ask? As you can see in the figure below a cold high pressure system which dropped down from Canada is parked directly over the Ohio River Valley today. This high pressure is on the move however and thus temperatures will moderate slightly Monday behind the high pressure with temperatures rising into the low 40s for highs under mostly cloudy skies. These clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next storm system which is expected to impact our area Monday night into Tuesday.

A high pressure is centered over the Ohio River Valley today, thus creating not only the sunny skies but also the cold temperatures accompanied by a stiff north wind.

Ah yes, our next storm system… well some of you have probably already heard the idea of snow floating around as a possibility this week. And yes indeed it is possible that we could see a FEW flakes here in south-central Kentucky overnight Monday into Tuesday. It’s also possible that we could see some LIGHT sleet and even possibly freezing rain at times as well. Notice however, that I am emphasizing the words light and few because this wintry mix possibility certainly does not look to bring any real impacts IF it materializes. Forecast computer models have had a tough time agreeing on whether the moisture will make it as far north as south-central Kentucky, let alone just how the temperatures look. In the end, there is a low confidence chance of some light wintry mix, which looks predominately to be sleet, Monday night after midnight into the afternoon Tuesday; this could very well be mostly light rain most of the day Tuesday. Much better chances of seeing some snow occur just to our east and especially east of I-75 and into the mountains of eastern Kentucky by Tuesday evening/night. For now, just be aware that there is a possibility of some light wintry mix Monday night/Tuesday from which no impacts are currently expected.

The forecast model (18Z NAM Sunday) valid for 6 am Tuesday indicates the possibility of precipitation in south-central Kentucky and indicates the 850 mb freezing line within the state which gives a general idea of where frozen precipitation is possible.

Of course, keep in mind that if we are talking wintry precipitation, it will at the very least remain quite chilly outside. Highs Tuesday will only be around 40 and Wednesday will be just downright cold with highs in the low to mid 30s with brisk north to northwest winds. Highs should be back around 40 by Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, overnight lows will consistently be dropping into the low to mid 20s. Aside from a few flurries possibly Wednesday morning skies will clear behind the aforementioned system and thus sunny skies should dominate beneath a high pressure system by Wednesday afternoon into the latter half of the week. Thus much of the Thanksgiving Holiday looks to be chilly but sunny. Temperatures will slowly moderate and could potentially reach the low 50s again by the weekend.

Due to the complexity of the forecast concerning the potential of light wintry weather, and update on Monday evening is likely here on the blog in order to provide the latest.  In other words… stay tuned!

Daily Forecasts:

Today: Cold and sunny. High near 33 with a stiff north wind from 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Clouds will be on the increase becoming mostly cloudy by sunrise. Cold with a low around 24. Light to calm winds.

Monday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and cool with a high near 42. South to southwest winds a 6-12 mph.

Monday Night: Cloudy skies and cool. 50% chance of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and/or rain after midnight. Low near 30. No wintry accumulation expected.

Tuesday: 50% chance of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and/or rain before 10 am. 50% of rain mixed with sleet from 10 am – 3 pm. 30% of rain/sleet/snow after 3 pm. No wintry accumulation expected.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy early decreasing to partly cloudy overnight. Cold and windy with lows around 22 and winds from the north a 8-16 mph.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy early with a chance of flurries, becoming partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon. Cold and blustery with a high near 33 and winds from the north to northwest at 10-20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear skies and cold with lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

Thanksgiving Day: Sunny skies with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Days at a Glance:

Thursday: Another mild day starting around 40 degrees and reaching the upper 60’s with S-SE winds blowing 8-12 mph. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day with 30% rain showers beginning late around Midnight.

Friday: Very warm start to the day in the low 50’s. Temperatures will only rise to the mid 50’s under cloudy skies with 90% chance of light to moderate rain showers from Midnight throughout the remainder of the day. Accumulations will range between 1 – 1.50 inches. Winds will shift from the SE to the NW at 8-12 mph Friday evening as cold air begins to spill in the area.

Saturday: Start with a low in the upper 30’s with a high in the lower 40’s as very cold air rushes into the area all day with 12 – 15 mph NW winds. Wind chill will make it feel colder than it is! Precipitation lingering from Friday should dissipate overnight as clouds will dissipate throughout the day.

Sunday: Very cold start to the day in the lower 20’s. High’s will be lucky to break the freezing mark reaching the mid 30’s at best under sunny skies and 5 mph N winds turning light and variable into the evening.

Discussion:

As was hinted at in the previous forecast, Old Man Winter will make his way back down to our area this weekend with Sunday’s high temperature barely reaching the mid-30’s. With that said, savor tomorrow’s mild temperatures in the upper 60’s as clouds increase into the afternoon and evening. This is preceding a cold front that will pass through the area during the day Friday. Light to moderate rain showers are only expected and will persist throughout the entire day from Midnight to Midnight before tapering off into Saturday morning. Total accumulations should remain below 1.5 inches with no other hazards expected. Cold, Arctic air will spill into the region (cold air advection) all day Saturday as skies clear throughout the day.

GFS 12Z (6am) Sunday morning surface temperatures and wind barbs showing the very cold air settling into our area after persistent cold air advection (CAA) all day Saturday.

As a result, Sunday will be very cold with morning temperatures in the low 20’s reaching the mid 30’s in the afternoon under sunny skies. Dust off the winter jackets again and get the hot chocolate ready.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Days at a Glance:

Monday: Starting in the mid 40’s and rising to the mid 50’s under blue skies. Gusty NW winds averaging 12-17mph will make it feel on the colder side than temperatures suggest.

Tuesday: A calm and clear night will produce a morning low at or just below the freezing mark with highs barely scraping 50 under clear skies. Winds will be light and variable.

Wednesday: Another calm and clear night produces lows at or just below freezing. Highs will reach the low to mid 50’s under blue skies with 6-10 mph winds out of the S-SE.

Discussion:

After a very dramatic severe weather day across the Ohio River valley and Great Lakes region especially, we will settle back down into a quiet weather pattern.

Initial SPC severe weather reports for today as of 8:55pm CST today. An overall devastating event for the Midwestern US. As of yet, Warren County had 0 reports recorded.

A high pressure system is currently shifting over our area from the west and will park it for the remainder of the forecast period. This will produce beautiful and pleasant fall-like days.

Models are depicting another blast of Arctic air near the end of the work week and into the weekend behind a relatively weak front. More on this development with Wednesday’s forecast.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Most of Kentucky saw light snow yesterday morning and even Bowling Green got in on the action, although most people were not awake to see it. Our average date for the first snowfall is not until mid December across southern Kentucky. Anyone out and about before 8am this morning were welcomed with sub-freezing temperatures as overnight lows dropped into the low 20s. Unlike yesterday, the sun has been shining and the wind has died off, making for a somewhat nice day. But, the arctic air that invaded the region overnight Monday will soon be moving on, making way for a warmer weekend!

We are currently sitting at 43 degrees, which is just one degree cooler than our high of 44 for the day. Average highs for this time of year are in the upper 50s. We will again dip down into the 20s tonight with the temperature hovering around 27 degrees early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow begins the warm up with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid 50s.

A high pressure system setting just to our east will be responsible for the nice weather over the next few days.

As we head into the weekend, the high pressure with continue to drift to our east, funneling in warm air from the south due to its clockwise rotation of wind. Temperatures will reach the mid and upper 60s by the weekend. But by Saturday night and into Sunday rain begins to enter the picture.

A large system with the possibility of being a complete washout moves through the area on Sunday. This will be out ahead of another arctic outbreak swinging through Monday evening. Temperatures will once again be quite chilly by next Tuesday. There is no risk right now for wintry weather with this system as most of the precipitation will be out ahead of the arctic air.

Here is the total precipitation expected Sunday through Tuesday.

Here’s a look at the arctic blast heading our way by Tuesday. Temperatures back into the 20s by Tuesday morning!

Weekly Outlook:

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 54. Light south wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind 3 to 7 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Showers likely.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers.  Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

It has been a gorgeous weekend with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. The rest of your Sunday will be no different with high temperatures topping out in the low 60s with little cloud cover. Things will cool off quickly overnight as the temperature will drop to just below freezing by early tomorrow morning. Veterans Day will continue the nice stretch of weather with a high around 63 degrees and mostly sunny skies.

The big story of the week will be the arctic air mass diving south behind a cold front, making its presence felt in our area by Tuesday. This air mass will modify before it reaches us as it encounters warmer air to the north, but nonetheless, frigid air will be in place by Wednesday morning with temperatures dipping into the low to mid 20s.

Will we see any snow with this system?

We will most likely see small amounts of rain and even a chance for some snow Tuesday morning. Farther to our north and east there is a chance for an inch or two of accumulation, but no more than a dusting is expected in our area.

Here is a look at the NAM snow output for the area.

The NAM has us getting a dusting at best, while north and eastern Kentucky could see up to 2 inches of the white stuff. Earlier runs of the NAM had the heaviest precipitation placed over southern and western Kentucky, putting Bowling Green in the 1 inch of snow category (if temperatures allowed). The past three runs of the NAM have consistently shifted the heaviest precipitation and highest chance for snow to the north and east. While the exact path of the system is not set in stone, an accumulating snow event is not likely.

NAM 10am precipitation and temperatures

Temps. in the low to mid 30s at 10am

(.03 – .05 inches of precip. for the area)

What time will it arrive?

Light rain will arrive early Tuesday morning and come to an end around lunch time. It won’t be a heavy rain event by any means, but there will be a chance for mixing of sleet or snow between 7am and 10am. The exact temperature upon arrival of precip. will play a role in just how much of the precipitation is snow (if any). Ground temperatures are too warm to allow for any sticking and the pavement temperatures will stay well above freezing for the event. As we head into Tuesday night, there will be a chance for some ice patches. So be cautious as your heading to work or campus Wednesday morning.

Weekly Outlook:

Veterans Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Light northwest wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and noon.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 11 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 41.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 49.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers.  Partly sunny, with a high near 57.

November has come in quietly after the spooky Halloween severe weather stretching across most of western and central Kentucky causing wind damage, flooding and even a few tornadoes.

After the passage of that system and an additional cold front, November started out with chilly temperatures dropping into the 30’s with highs in the 50’s. The first week of November will bring us more rain chances into Wednesday and Thursday as another system drags a cold frontal boundary across our region. Wednesday night areas west of I-65 will begin to see rain becoming more widespread into the night and morning Thursday as a line of showers moves through with the front. After this system clears out, the rest of the week will remain dry with few clouds and cool conditions.

NAM Surface Temperature Valid for 9 pm Wednesday CST.

NAM Forecast Composite Reflectivity Valid for 9 pm Wednesday.

Tuesday: High,67. Low,44. Few broken clouds with winds from 5-10 mph. Mostly dry conditions with few scattered showers for areas west of I-65.

Wednesday: High,70. Low,48. Clouds increasing during the day with winds from 10-15 mph. Rain chances increasing into the evening especially for areas west of I-65.

Thursday: High,58. Low,43. Overcast with widespread rain showers clearing after frontal passage around 6-7 am. Cooling down with winds from 5-10 mph.

Friday: High,60. Low,46. Broken clouds with winds 5-10 mph.

Next Update: Nov. 6th
Forecaster: Emily Thornton