WKU Meteorology

Today the team woke up in Odessa, Texas once again. Around 10:30 am we headed to our target area of Big Springs, Texas. Here is the surface map for Monday:

The set up seemed very similar to the past few chase days.  The cut off low finally moved just north of our target area, which provided us with plenty of upper level support to sustain single cell thunderstorms. There was a nice amount of shear, and CAPE values to provide instability and lift in order to trigger thunderstorm development. A shortwave also was right over the target area, which also provided as a lifting mechanism. A dry line was moving in from our west which eventually stalled, and an outflow boundary approached from the north. The lower level jet stream was out of the SE which brought in plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into central and southern Texas. Due to overcast skies we decided to target Big Springs, Texas, due to the location and the gradual clearing of clouds westward. Big Springs acted as a pivot point to several cities that had potential for storm development, and had a decent road network in every direction.

We grabbed lunch at a large truck stop in Big Springs which offered both Popeyes and Subway. We ate in the restaurant and gassed up the van, and then proceeded to a park to kill time to wait for storm initiation. Around 2pm a cell popped up to our northwest, and it was only about a 30 minute drive from Big Springs. We all piled up in the van , and headed eastward towards the cell which became tornado warned while we were traveling towards it.  We intercepted the Supercell just as it passed north of Patricia,TX. the cell was very large and rotating.

This cell produced several funnel clouds, but we did not see one reach the ground. Just as this cell was gusting out, a new cell was strengthening on radar just southwest of our location. We were on the hunt once again! The second cell was just west of Sterling City,TX. Approaching the cell was difficult due to a poor road network and a drastic change in terrain, which hindered our view of the storm.  Once the storm was in view it was beautiful.

We then proceeded  east and watched the cell outside of a rest area east of Sterling City. It was a textbook supercell with very beautiful color.

After watching that cell move southeast, we then headed towards our stop for the night in Lubbock, TX. As the sun was setting we were treated to a beautiful view of mammatus clouds along the interstate.

Today was a very successful chase day in Texas. We saw some beautiful rotating supercells and a great sunset to top off our day. We headed to Lubbock, preparing for a 17 hour trek to Buffalo, Wyoming the next day in order to chase storms in Montana on Wednesday.

The team started the sixth chase day in Odessa, Texas and headed toward our target city of Fort Stockton, Texas around 10:30 AM. Here is the surface map for Sunday morning:

The set-up seemed very similar to the previous day, with upper-level support finally helping kick things up in our area, along with significant theta-e advection, wind shear, and CAPE for instability. Upper-level divergence was also present, producing lift around our area. Dew points remained unusually high in Texas, which would presumably help provide moisture to storms popping up along the dryline. Unfortunately, storms occurred the previous night and into the morning, diminishing available convection for the day. This was taken into account, however, as we decided to shift south and eastward for the target. Fort Stockton was chosen once again since it was to the south, but also because it would serve as a good pivot point depending on where cells decided to pop up.

We grabbed lunch at a Mexican restaurant called John Chihuahua’s in Fort Stockton, but had to head out quickly because a supercell had formed northeast of Marathon, Texas. Unfortunately on our trek southeastward to intercept this cell, we hit some hills and precipitation fog, which disabled us from seeing any structure whatsoever. This cell was tornado-warned, but continued to quickly diminish as we got closer to it.

Since it was still fairly early in the day, we decided to hang out in Sanderson, Texas to wait for storms to erupt; at that time we were about 18 miles from Mexico. The SPC did issue a tornado watch until 10 PM, expecting, as we were, that storms would pop up later in the day.  The best storms appeared to be in Mexico, and did not cross over the border toward Del Rio until we had already started the trip back up to the north.

On the way back to Odessa, Texas for the night, we stopped in Fort Stockton for a much-needed Dairy Queen break before spending some time in a local park while the sun was still shining.

Storms that had been severe thunderstorm warned erupted in southeast New Mexico around 8 PM. We decided these were too far away to chase since it would be getting dark soon, but were still able to see some of the structure from where we were.

The team ended the night in Odessa with dinner at Chili’s and a weather briefing for the next day.

So while the day ended up being a bust, it was a good one nevertheless. The team was able to spend time together and a busted day really did make us appreciate the great days we had experienced previously this week. Another big forecast decision will be made today, as to whether or not we will stay in Texas for the day or start heading up north to our next target!

We started the morning in Ft. Stockton, Texas and headed out around 10am with the target area to be Odessa, Texas. Below is an image of this morning’s surface analysis.

Today, we finally had upper level support for storms in west Texas. The 250mb jet was located over western New Mexico and the 500mb jet was located in southwest New Mexico which gave us divergence aloft, with sufficient theta-e advecting into southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This, accompanied with a decent dry line was enough to support supercell structured storms. However, the outflow boundary from the previous day’s showers and storms took a little longer to stall over west Texas than expected so we decided to remain in Stockton, TX. While playing the “waiting game” we took time to relax and threw some football. While working on our farmer tans, we noticed a few prairie dogs taking in some of the action of our pickup game.

By midday, storms began firing just south of Odessa near Crane, TX so we headed northeast to intercept. We ended up catching a line of three cells near Big Lake, TX and by this point the storms had matured into pretty decent structured supercells. The main threat with this storm was large hail and damaging winds. Below is a photo of the storm when we first intercepted it just north of Big Lake, TX.

After the storm passed north of Big Lake, we noticed the storm to the southwest had amplified so we headed just south of Big Lake to intercept. We ended up sticking with this storm for the remainder of the day, following it northeast. The storm received support from the low level jet by early evening and was able to produce a funnel cloud just north of Barnhart, TX. Below is a photo of the funnel cloud. It is a little hazy considering we were traveling down a road just east of the storm.

Around 8pm the storm to the north, that we first intercepted, began merging with the supercell that we were currently on. The fusing of storms caused them to form a more linear pattern and the tornado threat decreased. Below is a photo of the storm once it had fused with the storm to the north.

As night approached we decided to call it a day and headed north to San Angelo, TX. Here, we had dinner at Bodacious BBQ till the storm had passed. After dinner we headed to Odessa, TX where we are staying for the night in anticipation of tomorrows events.

Today we woke up in Amarillo, Texas this morning and departed south at 9AM to our target area of Carlsbad, New Mexico. Here is a picture of this morning’s surface analysis.

We drove through some areas of rain in the Texas Panhandle which is very rare. Most areas in the Panhandle average about a third of the annual precipitation that Bowling Green receives and over the past few years this has been a drought stricken area, so the rains were very beneficial there. After stopping for gas, we decided it might be time for the storm chase baby to get a new mustache.

By midday, we were under clear skies heading south through New Mexico. After having lunch in Lovington, New Mexico a few cells popped up near Eunice, New Mexico. These thunderstorms were not long lived and were pulsing up and diminishing quickly. After about an hour and a half of watching the cells, one got its act together and produced a severe thunderstorm warning for some hail.

Here is a picture of the thunderstorm, and you can clearly see the precipitation falling, where the area shaded with a lighter color is actually hail falling from the storm.

One interesting phenomena with this storm was observing the cirrus clouds higher up in the atmosphere rippling out ahead of the cell.

Storms were not moving too fast, so we were able to deploy a drone to get some aerial shots of the storm as well.

After watching this storm for about 45 minutes, we headed south towards Fort Stockton, Texas which would be our resting place for the night. On the way, storms were pulsing up and diminishing all around us which allowed us to get a great view of some of the storm structures. Here is a picture of a storm in the developing stages about 10 miles from us.

We are staying in Fort Stockton tonight and look to continue our west Texas chase tomorrow.

After enjoying a delicious continental breakfast, we rolled out of the Aurora, CO hotel at 9:30.  Our target area was centered between Tucumcari, NM and Amarillo, TX. This area had Theta-E nosing in from the east providing moisture (fuel) for any storms contributing to CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg.  Diffluence in the upper-level winds coupled with a shortwave trough served as the lifting mechanism to trigger the storms.  Unfortunately, a lack of wind shear severely limited supercell development.  After crossing into New Mexico Mammatus clouds provided some pretty scenery along the way.

Mammatus Clouds

Nonetheless we still caught an impressive multi-cell storm south of Dalhart, TX. This storm provided a superb opportunity for the helicopter drone.

Picture from 200 ft via our helicopter drone

We moved on from this storm to another multi-cell cluster in Dumas, TX.  We sat in a church parking lot for over an hour observing the storm and also observing the strong winds via a useful  complex instrument: a Frisbee.

Storm outside Dumas, TX

At the end of the day we ended up in Amarillo, TX as a pit stop before we move farther south tomorrow.  But we didn’t go to the hotel before stopping at a Storm Chase tradition, The Big Texan for some steaks!

The Big Texan, home of the 72oz steak challenge

After waking up yesterday morning in Cheyenne, Wyoming we decided to chose our target of Denver, CO. Conditions looked substantially better than the previous chase day. Instability values were higher, and our LCL’s were lower making for a better probability of supercell development. Theta-E values were nosing into the general northeastern Colorado area providing the atmosphere with more moisture to work with.

Before heading to our target area, we made a pit stop at the University of Colorado. After driving around the campus, and looking at the nearby buildings, we went to the off campus atmospheric science facility. From there, our next stop was Denver.

We decided to wait just outside the city to catch our storm, and follow it as it traveled east. We made it to an open area where we could see the enhancement of the supercell, and the rotation of the over all storm.

Standing just northeast of the storm watching it traverse eastward.

We followed the supercell for a few more miles, and moved away from the hail core which was producing 3.5 inch in diameter hail at the time.

Second vantage point of the supercell near the Denver airport.

We encountered many other storm chasers during this storm which made traveling around a little more difficult and dangerous. We ended our day by eating at a little Mexican restaurant in Aurora, CO.

A few more pictures taken during the Denver supercell:

WKU Storm Chase students observe supercell over the Denver airport.

Another look at the Denver supercell.

Supercell spinning up!

We started our day by leaving from Lawrence, KS at 7am. A forecast discussion was conducted on the road and Cheyenne, WY was chosen for the target area. We stopped in Kearney, NE for lunch at Jimmy Johns and ate on the way. After lunch, the decision was made on whether to head west or north. We decided to head west into Colorado then head north into Nebraska. Two cells fired up in western Nebraska and we began our chase on the top cell. We met up with the cell in Scottsbluff, NE and followed it just east of the area.

Storm located north of Scottsbluff, NE.

At the storms peak, we were located just north of Scottsburg. A severe thunderstorm warning had been issued on the cell and the road network north of Scottsburg was becoming quite scarce. The storm was heading due east toward us, and instead of ending the chase we decided to let the storm come over us. Hail was associated with the storm, therefore we had to seek shelter for ourselves and the van. We came across a local farmer’s garage, and after some persuasion the farmer let us seek shelter in his garage.

Ball of hail from a storm located north of Scottsbluff, NE.

We experienced hail, high winds, and intense lightning. After the storm was over, we headed toward the southeastern edge of the storm. While on our way down, we encountered hail covered roads which looked similar to a snow covered road. We stopped one last time just outside of Scottsbluff to watch the storm and eat dinner. After this, we headed back to our initial target of Cheyenne, WY. We got to our hotel around 9:30pm.

The weather has been stuck on repeat the past few days as we’ve seen day after day of sunny skies and warm to even hot temperatures in the mid 80s. While it feels a little for this time of year, it certainly beats the cold we became accustomed to this past winter and into the early spring.

We should see at least one more day of sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s… that being today. However, a low pressure system and cold front are approaching from the west. Overnight clouds should increase and by Friday morning our rain chances will be increasing dramatically. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night with this system.

WPC surface analysis for Thursday afternoon. Note the approaching rainfall in association with the cold front and low pressure to our west. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control for today.

Areas in western Kentucky have been placed under a “slight risk” for severe weather. This area includes locations along and west of a line extending from Hopkinsville to Owensboro. While south-central Kentucky isn’t included in this area, there could be a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of strong gusty winds.

SPC outlook for Friday includes a “slight risk” for severe thunderstorms just to our west.

Rainfall could be heavy at times, especially Friday afternoon. Overall rainfall totals should be in the 0.4″ to 0.8″ range through Saturday morning. A few more areas of upper-level disturbance will move through during Saturday and Sunday which will allow rain chances to continue through the weekend. Rain during the weekend should be far from a total washout though, possibly adding about 0.25″ to our total.

WPC expected rainfall through Sunday morning.

Looking longer range, rain chances will continue into early next week as another upper-level disturbance and associated low-pressure system and cold front approach.

Daily Forecast:

Today: Mostly Sunny with a high near 84. Clouds will increase into the afternoon. Breezy with southwest winds from 10-20 mph.

Thursday Night: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy by morning. Low around 67. South-southwest winds at 3-9 mph.

Friday: 80% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High near 77. Southwest winds from 10-20 mph.

Friday Night: 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low around 64. Rainfall totals (including Friday) between 0.4″ – 0.8″. Southwest winds at 6-12 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers especially in the morning. High near 80. Southwest winds from 8-14 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low near 63. Southerly winds at 3-10 mph.

Sunday: 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High around 82.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms; low around 64.

We are coming off what has been a fantastic weekend weather-wise. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s and 80s have been the trend. This is as a result of the upper levels slowly transitioning from the upper-low we had parked over our area last week to a general ridging pattern. This riding pattern will continue as we move through midweek and thus sunny skies & warm temperatures can generally be expected.

A ridge pattern is often associated with surface high pressure which, in turn, can mean dry and warm weather. This will indeed be the case this week. In fact, the center of high pressure is currently over the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico which allows warm-moist air to be filter into our region thanks to the clockwise flow around a high pressure. As a result 80s will be maintained through much of this week.

WPC Forecast Surface Analysis valid for 1 pm Monday.

That area of high pressure will slowly slide eastward into the eastern Atlantic and a low pressure system will take shape in the Great Plains. This setup will only enhance the southerly flow into the region.

Also, with the low pressure system still well to our west, conditions should stay dry through much of the week. Rain chances will not start to increase from the approaching system until Thursday Night and particularly Friday. Until then, enjoy an awesome streak of sunshine and 80 degree temperatures.

Daily Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear with a low around 55. South-southwest winds up to 8 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny and warm with a high near 85. Breezy with a west-southwest wind at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25+.

Monday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 57. South-southwest wind from 3-10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies and warm still yet with a high near 84. Southwest winds from 8-15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear with a low around 57. South-southwest winds 3-8 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with a high around 85. Southwest winds from 8-15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear with a low near 60.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm with a high near 85.

Some areas of the country are sitting in shambles after the beginning of the week started with the first major outbreak of the year. The severe weather lasted a full two days and with it came a lot of devastation. The image below shows the preliminary tornado tracks as well as the number of casualties associated with each tornado. Tornadoes, hail, and wind damage weren’t the only types of severe weather seen early this week. Near Pensacola, FL, an approximated 15+ inches of rain fell in 24 hours creating flash flood conditions. This left many areas underwater and caused unprecedented damage.

However, after the shaky beginning of the week we can look forward to great weather for the next several days. An upper-level low will slowly make it’s way from the Midwest to the Great Lakes area leaving behind cooler air behind it, as we’ve felt today. The colder air aloft will result in skies being partly cloudy for the remainder of the day, with a slight chance of isolated showers towards the evening. The remainder of the week looks to be a fairly quite one for our region, even extending into the long range forecast area.

Weekly Outlook:

Today:Mostly sunny, with a high nearing 63. Winds will be out of the west around 15mph although a few gust could reach the mid-twenties.

Tonight:Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. West Wind 5-10mph.

Friday:Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Winds will blow lightly in the morning hours around 8-13mph.

Friday Night:Partly cloudy, with a low near 45. Southwest wind near 7mph.

Saturday:Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 6-11mph.

Saturday Night:Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Sunday:Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.

Sunday Night:Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.