WKU Meteorology

The cold front that pushed through the region this weekend brought relief from the warm, humid, summer temperatures that we had been experiencing for the last few weeks. The current temperature map shows temperatures across the nation are much cooler in the northeast and trending warmer along the central plains region.

We saw a high of 77 degrees today, according to the Kentucky Mesonet. Temperatures will increase throughout the week as we have winds becoming more southwesterly, bringing warmer air. Even with this temporary warm-up, we will only see temperatures in the mid 80s for the early part of the week. A low pressure system will begin to develop in the central U.S. on Tuesday and this will bring us even cooler temperatures later on in the week.

As of result of this low pressure system, a cold front will begin forming and making its way into our area Wednesday night into Thursday. Until then, enjoy the sunny skies and gorgeous weather as we begin our transition into Fall!

Bowling Green’s 3 Day Forecast:

• Tonight: Mostly clear skies, low of 59 with a light north wind.
• Monday: Sunny, high of 82, light north winds in the afternoon.
• Monday Night: Mostly clear skies, low around 61, light north winds.
• Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies, high near 85. Light south winds in the afternoon.
• Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy skies, low around 68. Light south winds.
• Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 87. South winds.
• Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely with a 60% chance of rain. Mostly cloudy skies, with a low around 71.

Today will be the last hot and humid day before a welcomed cold front swings through the area and provides some relief. Scattered pop up showers are possible this afternoon and evening as the front draws closer. More available moisture and better lifting just to our north and west will allow for more widespread showers across western Kentucky and north toward southern Illinois. The latest HRRR and RAP models are in pretty good agreement with the placement of rain this afternoon. This is the simulated reflectivity from the HRRR model for 4pm today.

Across the Bowling Green area we will see a 20% chance for a pop up thunderstorm this afternoon and a slightly better chance for a thunderstorm this evening. Thunderstorms will be spotty in nature, but any storm that does develop may not move very fast due to slow storm motion and could produce locally heavy rain. Isolated flooding events are not out of the question with this type of setup. In general, 0.25 – 0.5 inches of rain looks like a good bet across much of the area through Saturday evening.

Saturday

Saturday doesn’t look too promising if you were wanting to head outdoors. With on and off rain showers likely most of the day, you would be better off waiting until Sunday.

Sunday

With temperatures topping out around 80 degrees and partly sunny skies, Sunday will definitely be the pick of the weekend! Any leftover rain showers from the cold front will move out during the early morning hours of Sunday, leaving clearing skies throughout the afternoon.

Weekly Outlook

Daily rain chances enter the picture again by next Tuesday and will last through the end of the week. However, another cold front will arrive Thursday, bringing with it a taste of Fall!

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind around 6 mph.
Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. North wind 5 to 7 mph.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83.
Wednesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82.

The average high this time of year for Bowling Green is near 84 degrees. The high temperature over the next few days will remain several degrees above average, but a slight cool down by the weekend will bring temps back to near normal.

Today

High’s today will top out around 90 degrees with an isolated thunderstorm possible. The best chances for rain will remain south and east of Bowling Green, but a 10% chance for a pop up shower seems like a good bet.

The Hi Resolution NAM tries to spit out some showers this afternoon in our area.

Tonight

Temperatures will cool off into the upper 60s tonight with clear skies.

Tomorrow

Thursday will be a few degrees warmer with a high temperature topping out in the low 90s. Rain chances will also be on the increase with a 20% chance for a thunderstorm across the area.

Weekend Outlook

While the weekend doesn’t look like a total washout, rain is likely. The highest chance for rain will be Friday night through Saturday. However, Sunday will be quite dreamy with high temps in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.

Long Term Forecast

In general, temperatures and precipitation will most likely remain above average for the next two weeks. The following maps from the Climate Prediction Center show the temperature and precipitation deviation from normal probabilities.

The first set of maps show the 6 – 10 day outlook.

These next sets of maps show the 8 – 14 day outlook.

The monthly outlook show near normal temperatures and precipitation should dominate the month.

Overall, September will start out a little warmer than average with the possibility for more rain than normal. The highest chances for above average rainfall will shift north and west by the end of the month and the above average temperatures will remain along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

7 Day Outlook

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Light southeast wind.
Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Light south wind.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Bowling Green has already broken the August rainfall record and we still have more rain on the way for today! Bowling Green’s rain total for the month is 10.25 inches, with 1.9 inches falling over the past 24 hours. Here is a look at the monthly and yearly rainfall accumulation maps to show where south central Kentucky stands compared to normal.

These first two maps show the total monthly rainfall across the state and the departure from normal.

The next two maps show the yearly rainfall and the departure from normal for the year.

Even with all the rain in Bowling Green a moderate drought continues across portions of the region. Far western Warren County stretching across much of western Kentucky have seen below average rainfall for the past few months. Thankfully, the slow and steady rainfall last night and this morning will help dampen the drought a bit across the area.

Today’s Forecast

The morning and early afternoon will be mainly wet. By mid afternoon the bulk of the rain looks to move out of the area. The simulated reflectivity from the HRRR shows some pockets of heavier rain trying to push through around lunch before finally moving out later this afternoon.

The clouds and rain will help keep it cooler across the region today with high temperatures topping out around 81 degrees.

Weekly Forecast

Temperature will remain seasonable, topping out in the upper 80’s to near 90 each day. Summer showers and storms are also possible each day this week with the best chance coming on Tuesday. No day will be a washout, but some storms will bring heavy rain to areas. The 7 day rainfall forecast from the WPC shows an additional 1 – 2 inches of rain is possible this week.

7 Day Forecast

Today: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. High near 81. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Labor Day: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind 5 to 8 mph.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 90.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91.

On Sunday we started our day in Ogallala, Nebraska and prepared for what we hoped would turn out to be one of our better chase days. The setup featured a split flow aloft with a surface low moving across western Kansas. This would provide the lift for storms to fire across the western part of state before congealing into a line and moving east. Wind shear was weak in the lower levels but the CAPE was progged to have values of 1500-2500 J/kgK and storms were expected to produce mainly large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Here is a look at Sunday’s surface analysis:

We departed pretty early from Ogallala and headed about 3 hours south to a small town called Norton, Kansas which sits right along the Kansas/Nebraska border. We ate some Subway for lunch and even ran into our friends from the College of DuPage once again. This also gave us a chance to check on the short range models to get an update of what was going on with the storms. Ongoing in convection in southern Nebraska was still present and supercells that were forecast to pop up over the western part of the state and congeal into a line were looking to happen too late in the day to chase. So we decided to try and chase the strongest storm on the southern edge of the ongoing convection in northern Kansas.

We targeted the strongest storm pretty well and left Subway, but even the strongest storm was not impressive once we reached it. We caught the storm in Philippsburg, Kansas where it became severe thunderstorm warned. Then we followed the storm to Athol, Kansas and got a view of the severe storm.

This storm was elevated and receiving none of its inflow from the surface. Even though it looked pretty impressive in person and on radar, this storm was not very strong and was only going to produce small hail before losing strength. We left the storm and headed west to Hays, Kansas to see if any storms fired a bit earlier than expected but unfortunately none did.

This would mark the end of our chasing and we headed east to Salina to drop off Dr. Dixon and then we headed east ourselves to the hotel in Boonville, Missouri. Yesterday we woke up early and drove from Boonville to Bowling Green and returned to campus. After 14 days traveling, 6 states covered, and a total of 8,311 miles (avg. 547 miles per day) we have returned from an amazing storm chase. Here is another group picture of all of us on Day 6 in Texas.  (including Dr. Durkee in the background):

We arose bright and early today in Spearfish, SD and took off southwest.  Looking over the models while chowing down on some delicious breakfast, we determined the primary mission today was a “travel day” to Ogallala, NE in order to get in a good position for tomorrow’s promising weather.  Nonetheless, our target area entailing the boundary of Wyoming/Nebraska just so happened to be along the way giving us something to look forward to.

The weather set-up for today was pretty far from ideal though.  Adequate dewpoints with a shortwave trough positioned over the region meant storms had the fuel and the lifting mechanism to fire up.  Unfortunately, upper level support (i.e. speed, shear, helicity) was lacking.  Because of this, storms were rather weak and the structure was clustered instead of solo supercells.

Surface Map

After reaching our target area we set up base camp in Lusk, Wyoming.  We ate lunch at the Outpost Café (I give it a 4/5 rating, if you are ever in the area looking for some good grub) and played some football at the local park.  Chase teams from Rutgers University and the College of DuPage were also at the park playing the waiting game.  Around 4pm MDT moderately impressive storms fired up around the region.  We viewed one storm from Lusk and then chased another around the town of Torrington, Nebraska.

Storm as viewed from Lusk, WY

Mammatus clouds from Lusk storm

Torrington Storm

The chasing soon ended as the storms weakened and clustered together soon after 6pm.  We finished the drive to Ogallala, NE where we are currently catching some ZZZ’s.

We woke up yesterday in the city of Spearfish, SD after having another successful chase day full of lightning. During our morning forecast discussion we all came to the decision our day would be better spent touring the local attractions. Severe weather parameters were not lining up for a successful chase day. Below is the surface map generated for today:

Surface map generated for 30th May 2014

As a group we decided it would be best to go to Badlands National Park, which was east of the boundary, and if any storms did initiate over the Bandlands we could chase. We made it to the park around 3:00 PM and began hiking, climbing, and exploring the surrounding area.

Our group exploring the desolate grounds of the park.

Being bad in Badlands National Park.

After hiking around, and watching a distant storm roll in, we decided to hit the road, and head for the historic town of Deadwood, South Dakota for dinner. The town Deadwood, is an old gold mining settlement which dates back to the days of Wild Bill, and other gunslingers alike. First becoming an illegal settlement in the 1870’s, many of the old buildings still stand.

Our group hunting down a great restaurant!

The town of Deadwood has some exciting history!

For dinner we ate at Diamond Lils, which was in the second floor of one of the many old buildings in the community. After eating there, we drove back to Spearfish, SD for the night.

We started our day in Mile City, Montana and after our morning forecast discussion, our target area of southwest North Dakota was chosen. This area was chosen based on the forcing from the cold front, upper level support, and CAPE. The ingredients were not impressive for severe weather; however a small window of opportunity existed. We headed to Bowman, North Dakota for lunch and ate at a local diner called Eat’s and Treats which was delicious!

We decided to head to a local park to wait for storms to initiate, but when we headed outside, cumulus clouds had begun to form along the cold front. Due to this, we decided to head east of the developing storms and let them come to us. When we got east of the storms, a few had become severe thunderstorm warned.

Severe thunderstorm located outside of Bowman, North Dakota.

We chased a cell just to our north which showed slight rotation. The storm dissipated. We then chased a second cell, which eventually lost its warning. After the chasing the second storm, we decided to head back to our hotel which was in Spearfish, South Dakota. If any storms looked impressive along the way we would chase. We stopped about 70 miles from Spearfish and observed some impressive lightning off in the distance.

Lightning from a storm about 70 miles from Spearfish, South Dakota.

After we observed the lightning, we headed to our hotel in Spearfish.

Due to diminishing conditions for severe weather in the southern plains area and a good outlook for storms in the northern plains for Wednesday, we decided to designate Tuesday as a travel day. We started out early at 8am in Lubbock, Texas, leaving for Buffalo, Wyoming–a 15 hour drive. Most of us used this time to catch up on some sleep, while others enjoyed the sights:

Cinder Cone Volcano in Capulin, NM

We made our first stop for lunch at a Wendy’s in Trinidad, Colorado. From there, we hauled north through Colorado Springs and then Denver, where we met some heavy rush hour traffic. While passing through the outskirts of Denver, we noticed this beautiful rainbow in front of a storm to our east:

By the time we made it to Cheyenne, Wyoming, it was dinner time. We decided to continue the trend of Mexican food and stopped at Taco John’s

As we were making our way northward toward our destination of Buffalo, WY, we noticed a beautiful storm about 30 miles to the southwest. As soon as we found a nice, quiet overpass we stopped to take some photos and watch the sunset.

All-in-all, Day 8 was another perfect example of a non-chase day putting a beautiful storm in our path, for which we were all very grateful for.

We woke up in Buffalo, Wyoming with a 7hr drive ahead of us. Our forecast discussion was held in the van, which led us to decide on Lewistown, Montana as our target location. Our discussion was centered on the fact that there was a lot of upper-level support throughout the northwest, including western and central Montana. In addition to good upper-level support, there was a prominent shortwave moving through the area, which was to serve as the lifting mechanism for the firing of the storms. There was also 40 knot bulk shear values throughout the region, which is what we had been lacking thus far on the trip.

We made our first stop for gas and food in Hardin, MT. While we were picking through the snacks at one of the local gas stations, we ran into our friend Kevin Deitsch from the NWS Louisville office. After looking over some data during our pit stop, we were faced with a tough decision. The models were consistently firing up storms at our target location, but as they tracked to the east there did not seem to be a good enough road network for us to safely follow them. Talking to a local trucker confirmed our doubts about the roadways, so after a little deliberation we made the choice to head east and let the storms come to us. We changed our target location to Glasgow, MT and set sail to Miles City where we grabbed some Subway. After a couple of hours and very bumpy ride on rough Montana roads we took a much-needed break outside of Fort Peck Lake, about a half hour from Glasgow.

Fort Peck Lake, Montana

We continued onward to Glasgow, where we found a nice park to throw some football at while we waited for storm initiation.

Candy Cane Park in Glasgow, Montana

We then decided to head west to Malta, where some storms were beginning to form. We found a good spot outside of Malta and watched a supercell make its way to the northeast, into Canada.

Mammatus clouds near Malta, Montana

Storm cluster outside of Malta, Montana

Our time observing this storm was cut short by the fact that it got dark while we were watching it, as well as the fact that we could not travel very far to our north due to the Canadian border being nearby. At this point we were forced to throw the towel in for the day and enjoy a nice lightning show on our way back to Miles City, where our hotel was booked. The fun did not end here, however. While admiring the beautiful lightning to the north of us, we noticed what appeared to be a tornado–although this has yet to be confirmed. The possible tornado was nearly impossible to see, only showing glimpses of itself in front of the occasional perfectly-placed lightning strike. If this tornado is confirmed, it would be not only the first tornado witnessed on the trip, but also the first nocturnal tornado in the history of the WKU Storm chase Class.