WKU Meteorology

Monday evening update on Winter Weather Possibilities (Update at 8:27 pm)

The wintry weather got a head start this afternoon when a wave of moisture reached into south-central Kentucky and dropped a quick burst of snow. Snow began falling in the Bowling Green area, generally around 3 o’clock and very light snow continued for several hours. Most locations in the bottom two rows of counties in KY saw a dusting to 1 inch. The official measurement for Bowling Green was 1.1 inches of snow. The photo below was sent in by fellow WKU meteorology major Chris Johnson of around 3/4 of inch of snow on an elevated deck in Bowling Green.

Chris Johnson sent in this photo of around 3/4 of an inch of snow from Bowling Green which fell Monday afternoon.

Despite this early round of snow that was unexpected by many, more winter weather is still possible through tomorrow evening. However, what fell this afternoon in south-central Kentucky will probably end up being the main show. Flurries will likely continue overnight before changing over to light drizzle or even light sleet sometime between 9 pm and 2 am. Meanwhile temperatures will be hovering right around freezing; if temperatures stay at or just below freezing obviously this light drizzle could be freezing drizzle. Precipitation intensity should increase from south to north across south-central Kentucky after 3 am especially into mid morning hours from 6 am to 9 am. Temperatures will have risen above freezing by this point and thus rain is expected though sleet could very well and is expected to mix in at times especially early. A cold rain with temperatures in the mid 30s is expected for much of the day Tuesday with as much as 0.25 inches of rain by the afternoon. After 3 pm cooler air will once again be filtering into the area and thus a transitions to sleet and snow is expected. Snow could fall for a few hours tomorrow afternoon between 3 pm and 8 pm with a dusting to an inch again possible. The heaviest snow will fall just to our east of our area. 2-5 inches is possible as close as the I-75 corridor including Somerset and Lexington; areas in the eastern Kentucky mountains could see even higher accumulations. The heaviest snow in these areas will fall in these areas between 6 pm and 6 am so be careful if traveling east tomorrow evening into tomorrow night for the Thanksgiving holiday.

High-Res Nam forecasts some light snow in the areas by tomorrow around 6 pm.

A moderate to heavy band of snow is forecast to develop just to our east along the I-75 corridor by tomorrow evening. This is the High-Res Nam model valid for 11 pm Tuesday night.

Temperatures will fall to around the freezing mark, especially so as the evening progresses and will fall below freezing after 6 pm so it is possible that a few minor slick spots could develop. Expect a few flurries to possibly fall Wednesday morning.

Below is a timeline summary:

8 -10 pm: A few flurries with temperatures hovering around 32. Watch for a few slick spots on the roads.

10 pm – 3 am: A few light flurries/light sleet/light (freezing?) drizzle with temperatures continuing to hover around 32.

3 am – 9 am: Precipitation will intensify and temperatures will warm ever so slightly just above freezing. Precipitation will likely be a mixture of sleet and rain.

9 am – 3 pm: Periods of rain which could be steady at times. Temperatures will warm to near 35-37.

3 pm – 8 pm: Rain will change to light snow (possibly mixed with sleet briefly) which will slowly tapper off into the evening. A dusting to an inch is possible around BG. Lighter amounts will occur to west of I-65 and higher amounts will occur east of I-65. Temperatures will cool back to around the freezing mark after 6 pm.

After 8 pm: Precipitation will have come to an end and temperatures will drop below freezing; be aware a few minor slick spots could develop. A few flurries could fall Wednesday morning.

——————————————————————————–

As Thanksgiving approaches, it may be a good time to consider being thankful for coats, sweaters, blankets, and heaters because it has certainly gotten cold here in south-central Kentucky. We woke up to a chilly low in the upper teens in Bowling Green and despite sunny skies today’s temperature’s we have struggled to crack the freezing mark. This will make today the coldest overall day this season. Clouds will begin to increase overnight, which will only allow the temperatures to drop to the low 20s. Why so cold you may ask? As you can see in the figure below a cold high pressure system which dropped down from Canada is parked directly over the Ohio River Valley today. This high pressure is on the move however and thus temperatures will moderate slightly Monday behind the high pressure with temperatures rising into the low 40s for highs under mostly cloudy skies. These clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next storm system which is expected to impact our area Monday night into Tuesday.

A high pressure is centered over the Ohio River Valley today, thus creating not only the sunny skies but also the cold temperatures accompanied by a stiff north wind.

Ah yes, our next storm system… well some of you have probably already heard the idea of snow floating around as a possibility this week. And yes indeed it is possible that we could see a FEW flakes here in south-central Kentucky overnight Monday into Tuesday. It’s also possible that we could see some LIGHT sleet and even possibly freezing rain at times as well. Notice however, that I am emphasizing the words light and few because this wintry mix possibility certainly does not look to bring any real impacts IF it materializes. Forecast computer models have had a tough time agreeing on whether the moisture will make it as far north as south-central Kentucky, let alone just how the temperatures look. In the end, there is a low confidence chance of some light wintry mix, which looks predominately to be sleet, Monday night after midnight into the afternoon Tuesday; this could very well be mostly light rain most of the day Tuesday. Much better chances of seeing some snow occur just to our east and especially east of I-75 and into the mountains of eastern Kentucky by Tuesday evening/night. For now, just be aware that there is a possibility of some light wintry mix Monday night/Tuesday from which no impacts are currently expected.

The forecast model (18Z NAM Sunday) valid for 6 am Tuesday indicates the possibility of precipitation in south-central Kentucky and indicates the 850 mb freezing line within the state which gives a general idea of where frozen precipitation is possible.

Of course, keep in mind that if we are talking wintry precipitation, it will at the very least remain quite chilly outside. Highs Tuesday will only be around 40 and Wednesday will be just downright cold with highs in the low to mid 30s with brisk north to northwest winds. Highs should be back around 40 by Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, overnight lows will consistently be dropping into the low to mid 20s. Aside from a few flurries possibly Wednesday morning skies will clear behind the aforementioned system and thus sunny skies should dominate beneath a high pressure system by Wednesday afternoon into the latter half of the week. Thus much of the Thanksgiving Holiday looks to be chilly but sunny. Temperatures will slowly moderate and could potentially reach the low 50s again by the weekend.

Due to the complexity of the forecast concerning the potential of light wintry weather, and update on Monday evening is likely here on the blog in order to provide the latest.  In other words… stay tuned!

Daily Forecasts:

Today: Cold and sunny. High near 33 with a stiff north wind from 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Clouds will be on the increase becoming mostly cloudy by sunrise. Cold with a low around 24. Light to calm winds.

Monday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and cool with a high near 42. South to southwest winds a 6-12 mph.

Monday Night: Cloudy skies and cool. 50% chance of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and/or rain after midnight. Low near 30. No wintry accumulation expected.

Tuesday: 50% chance of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and/or rain before 10 am. 50% of rain mixed with sleet from 10 am – 3 pm. 30% of rain/sleet/snow after 3 pm. No wintry accumulation expected.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy early decreasing to partly cloudy overnight. Cold and windy with lows around 22 and winds from the north a 8-16 mph.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy early with a chance of flurries, becoming partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon. Cold and blustery with a high near 33 and winds from the north to northwest at 10-20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear skies and cold with lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

Thanksgiving Day: Sunny skies with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Days at a Glance:

Thursday: Another mild day starting around 40 degrees and reaching the upper 60’s with S-SE winds blowing 8-12 mph. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day with 30% rain showers beginning late around Midnight.

Friday: Very warm start to the day in the low 50’s. Temperatures will only rise to the mid 50’s under cloudy skies with 90% chance of light to moderate rain showers from Midnight throughout the remainder of the day. Accumulations will range between 1 – 1.50 inches. Winds will shift from the SE to the NW at 8-12 mph Friday evening as cold air begins to spill in the area.

Saturday: Start with a low in the upper 30’s with a high in the lower 40’s as very cold air rushes into the area all day with 12 – 15 mph NW winds. Wind chill will make it feel colder than it is! Precipitation lingering from Friday should dissipate overnight as clouds will dissipate throughout the day.

Sunday: Very cold start to the day in the lower 20’s. High’s will be lucky to break the freezing mark reaching the mid 30’s at best under sunny skies and 5 mph N winds turning light and variable into the evening.

Discussion:

As was hinted at in the previous forecast, Old Man Winter will make his way back down to our area this weekend with Sunday’s high temperature barely reaching the mid-30’s. With that said, savor tomorrow’s mild temperatures in the upper 60’s as clouds increase into the afternoon and evening. This is preceding a cold front that will pass through the area during the day Friday. Light to moderate rain showers are only expected and will persist throughout the entire day from Midnight to Midnight before tapering off into Saturday morning. Total accumulations should remain below 1.5 inches with no other hazards expected. Cold, Arctic air will spill into the region (cold air advection) all day Saturday as skies clear throughout the day.

GFS 12Z (6am) Sunday morning surface temperatures and wind barbs showing the very cold air settling into our area after persistent cold air advection (CAA) all day Saturday.

As a result, Sunday will be very cold with morning temperatures in the low 20’s reaching the mid 30’s in the afternoon under sunny skies. Dust off the winter jackets again and get the hot chocolate ready.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Days at a Glance:

Monday: Starting in the mid 40’s and rising to the mid 50’s under blue skies. Gusty NW winds averaging 12-17mph will make it feel on the colder side than temperatures suggest.

Tuesday: A calm and clear night will produce a morning low at or just below the freezing mark with highs barely scraping 50 under clear skies. Winds will be light and variable.

Wednesday: Another calm and clear night produces lows at or just below freezing. Highs will reach the low to mid 50’s under blue skies with 6-10 mph winds out of the S-SE.

Discussion:

After a very dramatic severe weather day across the Ohio River valley and Great Lakes region especially, we will settle back down into a quiet weather pattern.

Initial SPC severe weather reports for today as of 8:55pm CST today. An overall devastating event for the Midwestern US. As of yet, Warren County had 0 reports recorded.

A high pressure system is currently shifting over our area from the west and will park it for the remainder of the forecast period. This will produce beautiful and pleasant fall-like days.

Models are depicting another blast of Arctic air near the end of the work week and into the weekend behind a relatively weak front. More on this development with Wednesday’s forecast.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

Most of Kentucky saw light snow yesterday morning and even Bowling Green got in on the action, although most people were not awake to see it. Our average date for the first snowfall is not until mid December across southern Kentucky. Anyone out and about before 8am this morning were welcomed with sub-freezing temperatures as overnight lows dropped into the low 20s. Unlike yesterday, the sun has been shining and the wind has died off, making for a somewhat nice day. But, the arctic air that invaded the region overnight Monday will soon be moving on, making way for a warmer weekend!

We are currently sitting at 43 degrees, which is just one degree cooler than our high of 44 for the day. Average highs for this time of year are in the upper 50s. We will again dip down into the 20s tonight with the temperature hovering around 27 degrees early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow begins the warm up with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid 50s.

A high pressure system setting just to our east will be responsible for the nice weather over the next few days.

As we head into the weekend, the high pressure with continue to drift to our east, funneling in warm air from the south due to its clockwise rotation of wind. Temperatures will reach the mid and upper 60s by the weekend. But by Saturday night and into Sunday rain begins to enter the picture.

A large system with the possibility of being a complete washout moves through the area on Sunday. This will be out ahead of another arctic outbreak swinging through Monday evening. Temperatures will once again be quite chilly by next Tuesday. There is no risk right now for wintry weather with this system as most of the precipitation will be out ahead of the arctic air.

Here is the total precipitation expected Sunday through Tuesday.

Here’s a look at the arctic blast heading our way by Tuesday. Temperatures back into the 20s by Tuesday morning!

Weekly Outlook:

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 54. Light south wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind 3 to 7 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Cloudy, with a high near 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Showers likely.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 30 percent chance of showers.  Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39.

It has been a gorgeous weekend with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. The rest of your Sunday will be no different with high temperatures topping out in the low 60s with little cloud cover. Things will cool off quickly overnight as the temperature will drop to just below freezing by early tomorrow morning. Veterans Day will continue the nice stretch of weather with a high around 63 degrees and mostly sunny skies.

The big story of the week will be the arctic air mass diving south behind a cold front, making its presence felt in our area by Tuesday. This air mass will modify before it reaches us as it encounters warmer air to the north, but nonetheless, frigid air will be in place by Wednesday morning with temperatures dipping into the low to mid 20s.

Will we see any snow with this system?

We will most likely see small amounts of rain and even a chance for some snow Tuesday morning. Farther to our north and east there is a chance for an inch or two of accumulation, but no more than a dusting is expected in our area.

Here is a look at the NAM snow output for the area.

The NAM has us getting a dusting at best, while north and eastern Kentucky could see up to 2 inches of the white stuff. Earlier runs of the NAM had the heaviest precipitation placed over southern and western Kentucky, putting Bowling Green in the 1 inch of snow category (if temperatures allowed). The past three runs of the NAM have consistently shifted the heaviest precipitation and highest chance for snow to the north and east. While the exact path of the system is not set in stone, an accumulating snow event is not likely.

NAM 10am precipitation and temperatures

Temps. in the low to mid 30s at 10am

(.03 – .05 inches of precip. for the area)

What time will it arrive?

Light rain will arrive early Tuesday morning and come to an end around lunch time. It won’t be a heavy rain event by any means, but there will be a chance for mixing of sleet or snow between 7am and 10am. The exact temperature upon arrival of precip. will play a role in just how much of the precipitation is snow (if any). Ground temperatures are too warm to allow for any sticking and the pavement temperatures will stay well above freezing for the event. As we head into Tuesday night, there will be a chance for some ice patches. So be cautious as your heading to work or campus Wednesday morning.

Weekly Outlook:

Veterans Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Light northwest wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow before 10am, then a chance of rain between 10am and noon.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 11 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 41.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 49.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers.  Partly sunny, with a high near 57.

November has come in quietly after the spooky Halloween severe weather stretching across most of western and central Kentucky causing wind damage, flooding and even a few tornadoes.

After the passage of that system and an additional cold front, November started out with chilly temperatures dropping into the 30’s with highs in the 50’s. The first week of November will bring us more rain chances into Wednesday and Thursday as another system drags a cold frontal boundary across our region. Wednesday night areas west of I-65 will begin to see rain becoming more widespread into the night and morning Thursday as a line of showers moves through with the front. After this system clears out, the rest of the week will remain dry with few clouds and cool conditions.

NAM Surface Temperature Valid for 9 pm Wednesday CST.

NAM Forecast Composite Reflectivity Valid for 9 pm Wednesday.

Tuesday: High,67. Low,44. Few broken clouds with winds from 5-10 mph. Mostly dry conditions with few scattered showers for areas west of I-65.

Wednesday: High,70. Low,48. Clouds increasing during the day with winds from 10-15 mph. Rain chances increasing into the evening especially for areas west of I-65.

Thursday: High,58. Low,43. Overcast with widespread rain showers clearing after frontal passage around 6-7 am. Cooling down with winds from 5-10 mph.

Friday: High,60. Low,46. Broken clouds with winds 5-10 mph.

Next Update: Nov. 6th
Forecaster: Emily Thornton

The SPC has placed us under a slight risk for severe weather Thursday

The temperature tonight will only drop to the low 60s with southern winds bringing in warm temperatures.  Thursday morning and day will see temperatures only climb to 70 under cloudy skies.  Scattered rain showers and storms chances will persist throughout the day; however, the main focus is tomorrow evening/night as a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone settles into the Great Lakes Region.  The associated cold front will bring heavy rain and potentially severe weather as it advances through our region late tomorrow evening.    High amounts of moisture and strong winds are  factors playing into the strength of this cold front.

High amounts of moisture will provide fuel for the strong cold front as it approaches our region

Southern 850mb winds are already busy pumping moisture into the area which will push precipitable water values over 2.0” by the time the front pushes through.   This will result in heavy downpours and potential flash flooding.A steep pressure gradient will result in steady winds of 10-20mph throughout the day climbing to the upper 20s by evening.  Stronger gusts are expected with the advancement of the cold front, should these gusts break 65+mph will determine whether or not “Severe Weather Warnings” get issued.

A band of slight instability will develop ahead of the front

The only instability with this system will occur just ahead of the front as a slender strand of CAPE values over 1000 J/kg will contain the best chance to see any thunderstorms.  Although a linear band of storms may develop, low instability will limit the strength of these storms.  A tornado or two along the front will also be possible with strong low-level helicity.  However,  strong winds and flash flooding are the main threats with this front as weak instability will limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity.

Looking past Thursday, a sunny and dry weekend awaits.  However, jackets will be needed as temperatures will  drop.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High in the mid 60s. Low  in the mid 40s.

Saturday:  Mostly sunny. High in the mid 50s. Low in the mid 30s.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny. High in the mid to upper 50s. Low in the mid 30s.

Forecast Discussion:

Somebody turn up the heat because its cold outside! The coldest air so far this season has arrived to south-central Kentucky after three pushes of cold air have moved in this past week. The cold air along with a weak disturbance moving over the Ohio Valley allowed some locations across northern Kentucky to see some sleet and snow this morning. There will be no snow here in south-central Kentucky but the ground may be solid white by morning. With an upper-level trough and a surface high pressure in place, creating a couple of calm clear nights, you can bet that the temperature is going to drop. A Freeze Warning has been posted for the entire state of Kentucky for Thursday night as temperatures plummet to the mid 20s. Be sure to grab the jacket or maybe even the coat before heading out the door Friday morning.

A surface high pressure system will create calm winds and clear skies allowing for a cold night with temperatures dropping to the mid 20s. RUC forecast temperatures for 7 am Friday morning.

Temperatures will not warm much Friday despite sunny skies; the high will be around 50. Temperatures will again drop into the upper 20s Friday night/Saturday morning under clear skies. By Saturday winds will switch from the southwest ahead of a very weak disturbance. The southwest winds and sunny skies will allow temperatures to moderate into the low 60s. The weak disturbance will bring a few clouds to the sky by Saturday evening but they should clear by Sunday morning and thus a sunny Sunday with a high near 60 is expected. This is the result of another surface high pressure system moving in behind the weak disturbance.

Looking longer range and into early next week, a warm front should start the week off right allow temperatures to warm to the mid to upper 60s by Monday. Data suggests that 70s will return by Tuesday. The next major storm system is expected around during the midweek time frame.

Daily Forecasts:

Friday: A cold start after a morning low near 25. Skies will be sunny but it will be a cool day with a high near 49. Light northwest winds up to 8 mph.

Friday Night: Cold, clear with nearly calm winds and a low around 27.

Saturday: Sunny to start the day with increasing clouds though the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy by evening. Warmer with a high near 62. Southwest winds from 5-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly to partly cloudy skies with some clearing by morning. Low around 39. West winds up to 8 mph.

Sunday: Sunshine with a high near 60. West to northwest winds from 5-10 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear skies with clouds increasing by morning however. Low near 39.

Monday: Partly cloudy skies and becoming warmer with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

After a rainy start to the weekend on Saturday morning, weather conditions certainly cleared up for a gorgeous Sunday. The day got off to the chilliest start of the fall season thus far though. The low was 34 at the BGWC Regional Airport while the low dropped to the freezing mark at the Warren County mesonet site just outside of BG. The wall-to-wall sunshine helped to warm us into the low 60s by this afternoon, however that is several degrees below our average high for the date of 70. With such cool temperatures there were some areas of frost along with areas of fog to start Sunday.

Our cool weather is thanks to a cold front which passed through Saturday and also an upper-level trough located over the upper-Midwest which has setup a fairly zonal flow over the Ohio Valley. Associated with this trough is the next weather system poised to impact Kentucky. There is an associated low pressure system which is currently over the Great Lakes and a cold front extends from the system through Illinois and into Texas. Ahead of the system southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 60s. It should be a phenomenal fall Monday but clouds will begin to increase into the afternoon hours, with cloudy skies likely by sunset thanks to the approaching system. The low pressure system itself will pass well to our north but the cold front will slide through the Commonwealth on Monday night. The frontal passage marks the first of several weak fronts to pass through this week which will usher in much cooler air. There is a slight chance of a few showers with the front, though any showers will likely be in the early morning hours Tuesday morning and thus go unnoticed by most. Rainfall will very light totaling no more than a tenth of an inch.

This NAM model forecast indicates light rain along the cold front valid for 4 am on Tuesday. Behind the front cooler air will move in, and after another system moves by on Tuesday night, more cool air will spill in for mid-week.

Clouds will move out temporarily on the day Tuesday though yet another weaker system will approach by Tuesday evening bringing with it more cloudiness. Due to the very dry air which will already be in place, showers are unlikely with this system. However cool air will come crashing in. By Wednesday, mostly sunny skies will dominate but temperatures will struggle to climb. After starting out Wednesday morning near 40 highs will only reach the low 50s. Yet another weak disturbance will move toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night/Thursday morning and depending on its exact timing (which the models currently disagree on) will determine just how chilly it is to start Thursday. Either way it will likely be in the 30s. This very weak disturbance will again bring in more cool air in for the end of the week and it looks quite likely that our first real freeze of the season will occur Friday morning as temperatures are expected to drop to near 30. Cool below average temperatures are expected to continue right into next week as you can see predicted by the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook. They are giving at least a 70% chance of below average temperatures through next Wednesday.

At least a 70% probability of below average temperatures is predicted by the Climate Prediction Center for this weekend into early next week. Thus cool temperatures are here to stay for a while.

Daily Forecasts:

Monday: Mostly sunny to start the day though clouds will increase after 3 pm, becoming cloudy by 7 pm. Highs will warm to near 68. Southwesterly winds at 5-12 mph.

Monday Night: Cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers primarily after midnight. Showers will remain light with rainfall totals less than 0.10”. Low around 44. Light winds from the northwest.

Tuesday: Clouds will clear early becoming mostly sunny during midday. High near 61. Clouds will again increase by the evening. 5-12 mph winds turning back from the southwest.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy skies with a low near 39 with westerly winds at 4-10 mph.

Wednesday: Clouds will clear early for a mostly sunny day but cool with a high only around 52. Northwesterly winds from 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Low near 37 with increasing clouds.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy to start the day with skies becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. High in the low to mid 50s.

Days at a Glance:

Friday: Begin at a chilly 38! Scattered fog is possible in the early morning hours and should dissipate quickly after daybreak. High of 65 under sunny skies with scattered clouds increasing into the evening. Winds light and variable.

Saturday: Start the day with a low of 45. High of 58 under cloudy skies. A 60% chance of light to moderate showers in the early to mid-morning hours. Accumulations should remain under .10 of an inch. Clouds will stick around throughout the day before dissipating into the overnight hours. Winds will be mostly out of the west around 5-7 mph.

Sunday: Begin the day at a chilly 37! Sunny skies will dominate as temperatures top out at 65. Winds will be from the SSW at 10-12 mph.

Discussion:

The weather will remain fairly mundane as we head into the weekend despite the chance for light showers on Saturday. Tomorrow will start out in the upper 30’s so dust off the coat if you already haven’t since nighttime and morning temperatures will remain chilly throughout the weekend. The high tomorrow will reach the mid 60’s under sunny skies with clouds increasing into the evening hours. This will help to moderate the low somewhat and keep it in the mid 40’s. This is in association with a very weak and dissipating cold front projected to slide through the area midday Saturday. Due to the near absence of moisture, the greatest guarantee is overcast skies with light to moderate showers possible. Accumulations under .10 of an inch are expected in the morning hours after daybreak before dissipating around noon.

NAM 15Z (10am CDT) Saturday morning Composite Reflectivity showing scattered precipitation over the Ohio River Valley in association with the weak frontal boundary.

Clouds will hang around into the evening before dissipating overnight. Sunday will once again begin on a cold note, but will be absolutely beautiful under sunny skies with a high in the mid 60’s so get out and enjoy the great fall weather!