WKU Meteorology

As the stratus deck above us continues to dissipate and move to our northeast we should see temperatures start to rise, although today’s high temperature forecast seems it will be a little too high. Tonight the low will creep down to the mid-40s. A low-pressure system is settling into the Great Lakes Region and with that a cold front will swing through early Wednesday but little moisture has been advected into the area, so expect just scattered showers. As the low approaches pressure-gradients will tighten so wind speeds will increase. Expect winds to sustain around 10-15mph and gust to reach up to 35mph. Temperatures will reach the mid- to upper-50’s wednesday and settle back down to the mid-30’s wednesday night.

As the flow switches from the ridge/trough pattern into a more zonal flow, temperatures will begin to rise Thursday and Friday. Thursday we should see sunny skies with a high around 62 and a low that night around 40, under mostly clear skies. Friday is panning out to be a beautiful day as well with mostly sunny skies and a high in the lower 70’s.

However, these warm temperatures don’t look to last too long as the 6-10 probability outlook from the Climate Prediction center for temperatures is hinting at the same ridge trough pattern that we’ve seem to be stuck in. This is not a guarantee for cold weather next week but instead the probability that we will see temperatures that are below normal. Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Low around 47, with a 20% chance of precipitation. Winds with be out of the south at 9-15mph.

Wednesday: High near 58, with a 30% chance of precipitation. South winds will switch to west in the afternoon as the sky gradually clears. Gust could reach 30mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 34. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.

Thursday: Sunny skies, high near 62. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies, low nearing 39.

Friday: Sunny skies, high near 72.

Friday night: Low near 48, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The cold air has come rushing back in thanks to a cold front passing through the region and the winds will remain gusty for much of the day. Our high temperature today was actually overnight, therefore the temperature will continue to drop as we head throughout the day. Low 40s by the 5 o clock hour look likely with an isolated shower possible between 3pm and 6pm.

Here is a quick look at the region. Snow stretches from far western Illinois through the Northeast with rain and storms on the southern half. The cold front is draped right over central Kentucky and will continue to slide east as the day progresses.

Most of the area saw quick hitting heavy rain showers this morning and some wind gusts upwards of 40mph.  Our official rain total from these storms at the Mesonet was 0.1 inches.

So what can we look forward to tomorrow?

The temperature when you wake up tomorrow morning will be in the lower 20s. A few areas north and east of Bowling Green may even dip into the upper teens. 

We will warm up some tomorrow, but nothing like what we saw Tuesday. However, it will be a much nicer day tomorrow than today as the sun will be out and we will reach a high around 46 degrees.

Friday will be rather lovely with a high in the low 60s and the sun shining. But another front will move through the area and bring rain and slightly cooler weather with it for your weekend.

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Isolated showers between 3pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 40 by 5pm. Breezy, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. Northwest wind 7 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 46. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 33. South wind around 6 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Southwest wind 8 to 17 mph.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

Many people were thrilled to see the snow vanish this weekend and warm air begin to filter back in to the area. We may even see temperatures get close to 70 tomorrow and Tuesday. Although winter is slowly coming to a close, we’re not out of the woods yet.

Here is the temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center through next weekend:

Here is the two week outlook:

Overall temperature looks to be on the chilly side. Keep in mind, the outlook shows the probability of temperatures not meeting the average daily temp. With average temperatures being in the low to mid 50s, highs in the upper 40s to near 50 will still be considered below average.

With that being said, I believe this week looks rather warm and even above average overall. A cold front will drop the temperatures to the mid 40s for Thursday, but they will rebound nicely into the upper 50s by Friday. So why is this two week outlook showing such a high probability for below average temperatures? The GFS is showing a trough bringing cold air trying to dive into the region after next weekend. There is a possibility that we see high temperatures back in the 40s for part of next week.

Next Tuesday morning:

Next Wednesday morning:

In the short term:

The remainder of your Sunday looks to be nice and sunny. Monday and Tuesday will be the picks of the week with high temperatures near 70 on Monday and possibly reaching 71 on Tuesday. Rain will move into the area Tuesday night and bring with it slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

We will see a quick shot of cold air swing through Wednesday night. Thursday morning lows will be in the low to mid 20s.

Weekly Outlook:

This afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 51. West wind around 6 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 71. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

Forecast Discussion: 4 days later… the snow and ice remains! Yup, we just can’t seem to shake off old man winter who just continues to hang around. As a result of the ice/snow cover, temperatures have struggled to warm up, finally making it to the mid-40s today! Temperatures will continue to “spring forward” as that warming trend should continue right into the weekend. Maybe, just maybe, we’ll end up cracking the 60 degree mark before long. By the way… our clocks are also set to “spring forward” Saturday night.

High pressure has been the name of the game the last few days. It settled in over the Ohio Valley and has been controlling our weather giving us, in general, nice sunny days. While that high pressure system is moving out, it will just be replaced with more of the same. By this weekend, we’ll find ourselves between two areas of high pressure… one located along the Gulf coast and another over the upper-Midwest. With high pressure generally in control and no major weather systems coming through, we’ll see generally sunny skies through Saturday morning with ever so slowly moderating temperatures.

By Friday, the surface forecast from the WPC clearly indicates an area of High Pressure over the south which will bring south-central KY calm sunny weather.

It looks like by Saturday afternoon however, an upper-level impulse or disturbance may translate to some areas of clouds and then overnight some areas of scattered precipitation here in south-central Kentucky. Precipitation should be in the form of just plain old rain. Overall though, the entire system isn’t much to write home about and total precipitation should be light, generally under 0.25″. A few showers and at least some clouds may try to linger around into Sunday morning. Things should then clear out for a mostly sunny Sunday afternoon.

This model (NAM) indicates possible areas of scattered showers overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This particular image is valid for 4am.

Then, more quite weather and warmer temperatures for Monday and Tuesday before the next storm system moves in which is currently being hinted as arriving Tuesday afternoon.

Daily Forecast:

Tonight: Partly Cloudy skies and cool with a low near 28. Areas of fog/freezing fog are possible toward morning. Light to calm winds.

Friday: Sunny and a little warmer with a high near 53. Light and variable winds.

Friday Night: Clear skies with a low near 32. Again, some areas of fog are possible by morning. Light to calm winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies to start the day with increasing clouds. Becoming mostly cloudy by the late afternoon/evening. Warmer still with a high near 59. Southwest winds at 5 -10 mph.

Saturday Night: 40% chance of a few showers. Otherwise cloudy with a low near 40. West to northwest winds at 3 -8 mph.

Sunday: 30% chance of showers early. Otherwise, clearing skies to become mostly sunny by the afternoon. High near 53.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear skies continue overnight as temperatures fall into the upper 30s.

The winter storm which was poised to impact the region Sunday evening certainly did indeed make its presence known. Fortunately, the precipitation predominately fell as sleet as apposed to freezing rain. This kept the glaze of ice on trees and powerlines to a minimum and as a result downed tree limbs and powerlines were not an issue here. Some down into northern Tennessee, just to our south, weren’t so lucky. See the picture below from Cheatham County, TN.

Here is another photo showing the damage in downtown Ashland City. Photo taken by Vicki Lovell Presson #tnwx #chcwx pic.twitter.com/tyerTJP3r9

— CheathamSevereWx (@CheathmSevereWx) March 3, 2014

All told, Bowling Green officially received 0.1″ of ice glaze and then 4.8″ of snow/sleet combined. What is interesting about that total is that 2-3″ of this total was sleet. That much sleet is fairly uncommon. These totals created an absolute mess on the roadways and hundreds of motorist had to be assisted is the Bowling Green area alone. After a low temperature of 12 this morning, many roads remain ice/snow covered today, thus creating hazardous driving conditions.

This was the scene at WKU on Normal Drive on Monday afternoon. The car seen on driving the hill is actually backing down it because they could not make it up.

Road conditions should begin to clear more rapidly this afternoon however thanks to improved weather conditions, though temperatures will still struggle to break the freezing mark. High pressure sits directly over the Ohio Valley currently bringing us the relatively calm weather conditions. With generally sunny skies the next couple days as a result, temperatures will slowly moderate.

Tuesday forecast from the Weather Prediction Center… notice the “H” indicating high pressure over the Ohio Valley.

A disturbance will slide east into our area Wednesday Night into Thursday which should bring about some enhanced cloudiness and we’ll watch the system to see if any rain (and maybe some sleet?) will push into our area. Right now, the system should pass far enough to our south so that south-central Kentucky stays dry.

Daily Forecast:

Today: Partly sunny with a high near 31. Light winds out of the north to northeast.

Tonight: Cold and mostly clear with lows around 17. Light to calm winds.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a high around 41. Winds from 3-10 mph out of the northeast.

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds with a low around 28. Light winds out of the north to northeast.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High near 46. Light winds out of the north to northeast.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a low around 33.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for all of south-central Kentucky until 12pm Monday.

Heavy rain has fallen throughout south-central Kentucky today, some areas even had minor flooding. As expected, temperatures have now dipped below freezing and precipitation has now transitioned to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain.

What is known as isentropic lifting is one of the prime lifting mechanisms leading to our extended period of precipitation. There is also a wave of low pressure moving northeast along a cold frontal boundary and an upper level low which will contribute to the precipitation.

Radar analysis at ~9pm Sunday

Precipitation will first be a continued mixture of sleet and freezing rain until a transition to snow during the overnight/early Monday morning hours. Precipitation may be heavy at times, possibly accompanied with thunder and lightning. Temperatures will fall to near 20 by Monday morning.

This looks to be a significant winter storm for all of south-central Kentucky. Ice accretion from freezing rain could range from 0.25″-0.75″ and sleet/snow totals will generally be in the 3-6 inch range though some areas could receive more, especially north along the Western Kentucky Parkway.

Forecast outlook from the NWS Louisville

Significant impacts from the storm are expected which could include downed tree limbs and power lines, power outages, and very hazardous travel conditions. In fact, numerous slick roads have already been reported as of 8:30 pm Sunday evening.

Snow will taper off around midday for most of the mid-south with mostly cloudy skies and a few scattered flurries remaining through the afternoon. It will stay cold with a daytime high of only 27.

Tuesday night, skies will begin to clear allowing temperatures to dive into the single digits.

I’ll have more on the rest of the week’s outlook tomorrow after the passage of the winter storm. Stay safe everyone.

Sunshine and partly cloudy skies will help temperatures reach the upper 40’s today as the high pressure system in the Great Lakes region continues to push eastward. Look for clouds to increase as the day progresses and conditions to become progressively worse from Saturday night on. Winds will shift to a southwesterly flow later today followed by a small disturbance pushing through tonight and with it a small scattered amount of precipitation is expected. Southwesterly winds will greet Saturday and help temperatures rise above 50 degrees in the afternoon but cloudiness will vary across the region, so if the sun is able to peak out of the clouds for an extended period of time we could see temperatures reach the mid-50’s. Arctic air will push in from the northwest again later Saturday bringing the chance of light precipitation on Saturday night. As of now our region is in a Winter Storm Watch and could see significant ice and snow accumulations Sunday night into Monday. However, not much will be said about the upcoming event because forecast are still very uncertain. This potential winter weather maker is still off the coast of California, so it has not yet been sampled well enough for our Numerical Models. Current models now do a have a low pressure system tracking northeast from Texas to off the coast of the Carolinas. The QPF model shows a heavy amount of precipitation falling during this event, reaching above 2in, but sleet/snow/ice amounts will vary greatly depending on the thermodynamic set up as the system progresses through. 

Into Monday morning as the system passes cold air from the north-northwest will cause any remaining precipitation to fall as snow but expect the atmosphere to dry out into Monday night. Again, I will not mention snow/ice fall totals right now but it would be a great idea to keep an eye on the system as Sunday approaches. You can stay update with this system and future weather on our weather accounts found on Twitter, @WarrenCountyWX, and Facebook, Warren County WX.

Daily Forecast:

Today: Partly sunny skies, with a increasing clouds and a high of  47 degrees. Southeast wind from 7-9mph.

Tonight: Low of 37 degrees and a 30% chance of precipitation.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 53 degrees and winds between 5-8mph. 20% chance of precipitation.

Saturday night: Cloudy, with a low of 44 degrees and a 40% chance of precipitation.

Sunday: High of 49 with rain expected after 7am with a 90% chance of precipitation. South winds at 5-7mph will transition to west in the late afternoon.

Sunday night: Low around 31 with rain before 3am expected to transition to freezing rain and sleet. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday: High sticking around 31 with freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then likely transitioning to snow after. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday night: Partly cloudy with a low near 9 degrees and snow likely. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Partly sunny skies will bring high temperatures around 44 degrees for Bowling Green today as high pressure continues to nose in from the northwest. Last weekend’s spring teaser was short lived as the possibility of minor accumulations of snow are possible through tonight. A relatively weak wave in the upper portion of the atmosphere will sweep through tonight bringing with it the chance of snow. Bowling Green will only see a slight dusting, while areas to the east such as Lexington could see up to an inch. Accompanying the high pressure tonight will be a northwesterly wind around 6-11mph, with gusts reaching the lower 20’s. Wind chill associated with tonight’s low temperature of 18 degrees could drop temperatures down to single digits for our area.

As the high pressure settles in through early Wednesday, expect the skies to clear and temperatures to reach into the mid twenties, although wind chill values could keep us in the single digits. If you’re going to be outside be sure to bundle to up! Temperatures look to stay below normal Wednesday but will be accompanied by sunny skies. Thursday is looking to be slightly warmer, although still chilly, as another cold front sweeps through our region. High pressure begins to shift east on Friday and followed behind it is another weather producing system that looks to bring rain and possibly a few snow flakes to our region.

Daily Forecast:

Tuesday: Skies look to remain partly sunny with highs in the mid-40’s.

Tuesday Night: Minor snow accumulation with a low around 18 degrees and winds out of the northwest at 6-11mph. Gust could reach the lower 20’s.

Wednesday: Cold but sunny skies with a high of 27 degrees. North wind 7-10 will bring wind chill temperatures into the single digits.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear skies and a low of 18 degrees. Wind chill temps could still be in the single digits but expect winds to shift out of the southwest after midnight.

Thursday: Cold and sunny with a high of 37 degrees.  8-13 mph southwest winds will shift from the north in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear skies with a low around 17 degrees.

Friday: Increasing clouds and a high around 40 degrees.

Friday Night: Chance of rain/snow mix with a low at 31 degrees. Chance of precipitation 50%.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and a high of 43.

Saturday Night: Low around 30 degrees with a slight chance of rain and snow.

Be sure to check out our other links to stay updated on current conditions.

Weather Links:

Twitter: @WarrenCountyWX

Facebook: Warren County WX

The sunshine today will help to warm us to near 60 degrees for the second day in a row! Tomorrow we may be looking at highs in the low 70s. But the warm air comes with a price as severe storms will begin to roll in late in the afternoon.

What can we expect?

Rain showers will sweep through the area periodically throughout your Thursday, so make sure and pack an umbrella if you will be heading to work or class tomorrow.

Isolated Super cells may form out ahead of the main line of storms during the mid to late afternoon. If this does happen, tornadoes would become a threat. Later in the evening, a squall line will swing through, delivering heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds.

Here is the SPC day 2 outlook:

Bowling Green is included in the 30% risk for severe storms as well as the thatched area. The thatched area is an area where an upgraded risk (to moderate) is possible.

The 4 km NAM shows super cells out in front of the main line to be a real possibility.

Based on the NAM, isolated storms could arrive mid afternoon, bringing an enhanced tornado threat to the region.

Severe storm ingredients:

Plenty of moisture and warm air will be in the area tomorrow. Surface winds will be strong throughout the day. An intense negatively tilted trough will be shifting east out of the plains Thursday, meanwhile a surface low will rapidly intensify and push Northeast toward the Great Lakes. Storms will intensify in this region out ahead of the cold front.

CAPE (convective available potential energy) is the fuel for storms. The NAM and GFS have continued to increase the instability for later tomorrow.

The NAM shows CAPE values between 750-1000 at 6pm, more than sufficient for fueling severe storms.

Low level helicity values of over 300 J/kg will be in place around the 6pm time frame. Low level helicity values over 300 J/kg are favorable for super cell development.

Here is a look at the super cell composite for 6pm and significant tornado parameter at the same time.

The super cell composite points toward favorable conditions for super cells to develop after 5pm in our area. The significant tornado parameter  shows values near 4 just to the west of the area and heading east. This puts Bowling Green at a low end moderate risk for an EF2 tornado or greater.

The wind shear tomorrow will be very strong. Wind shear is crucial for the development of rotating updrafts. The more sheared an environment is, the higher the likelihood of tornado development is. Shear also helps keep storms isolated instead of forming a squall line.

Here is the bulk shear for 6pm tomorrow:

My thoughts:

This system will impact our area during the late afternoon and evening hours Thursday. The main concern tomorrow will be how many super cells can form out ahead of the main line. If isolated cells do develop, the chance for tornadoes increases. A squall line will likely move through the area during the evening in addition to the isolated storms out in front. While isolated cells will not affect everyone, if the squall line develops this far west, it will effect everyone. Wind damage is the greatest risk with these storms, along with heavy rain. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out, especially if storms can stay isolated through the entire region.

Timing:

Super cells will begin to develop after 5pm.

A squall line may organize after 8pm.

Note: These timing of this event along with the specifications of the storms are not set in stone and can change between today and tomorrow night. Stay alert as tomorrow afternoon draws closer and keep up to date with local weather reports.

Weather Links:

Twitter: @WarrenCountyWX

Facebook: Warren County WX

Weekly Outlook:

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Calm wind.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Some of the storms could be severe. Low around 37. Breezy, with a south wind 19 to 24 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 55. West wind 6 to 11 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Discussion: Happy Thanksgiving!! I hope all are enjoying a cool but sunny Thanksgiving day across south-central Kentucky. Certainly our weather is much better than earlier this week when rain, sleet and snow fell across the area. The heaviest snow fell across eastern Kentucky where some locations picked up as much as 5 inches with several locations seeing a white Thanksgiving. The storm system that brought the active weather has moved well off the east coast by now. After a Wednesday that was a brutal windy, cloudy and cold day and a Thursday that got off to a cold start with a low of 14 at the Bowling Green Airport, skies have cleared and today’s high reached the low 40s. The better weather is thanks to a high pressure which has moved over the south-central US and more sunny weather is ahead thanks to another area of high pressure system is approaching from the Midwest. With high pressure in control, skies will be sunny however temperatures will generally be cool. This means Black Friday shoppers will have to endure a another cold start with lows in the low 20s before temperatures warm to the mid 40s for highs. So bundle up before you head out for those early morning deals!

High pressure will be in control Friday morning which means clear skies, light winds, and cold temperatures for Black Friday morning shoppers! Bundle up!

As the high pressure system moves to our east by Saturday, what is known as the “return-flow” will bring southerly winds and warming temperatures. Highs will return to near 50 as a result Saturday and into Sunday. These warmer  temperatures in the low 50s and the sunny skies should make for a great fall day for the final home game of the season as WKU takes on Arkansas State. The southerly flow will also bring increasing moisture ahead of the next disturbance which will first bring in a few clouds by Sunday. The disturbance will also create a slight chance of showers overnight Sunday into Monday. The next good chance of rain will not occur until midweek next week.

Daily Forecast:

Thanksgiving Night/Black Friday Morning: Cold! Lows will drop to around 21 with nearly calm winds beneath clear skies.

(Black) Friday: Sunny skies with a high around 45. Northeast to east winds at 3-8 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds. Low near 23.

Saturday: Warmer with a high near 52. Mostly sunny skies with south to southwest winds at 8-12 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with a low around 32. South to southwest winds at 3-7 mph.

Sunday: Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy by the afternoon. High near 53.

Sunday Night: 20% chance of a few showers, otherwise cloudy with a low around 42.

Monday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a 30% chance of a few showers. High in the low 50s.