WKU Meteorology

This morning we woke up in Junction City, Nebraska and headed north. Unlike the day before, there wasn’t really a focal point for the storms. Our target was northeastern Nebraska where the CAPE levels were forecast up in the 5000s, so instability was promising. A warm front was draped across this area as well and a moisture axis was punching up towards South Dakota. The shear wasn’t too bad either, though it could have been stronger. As the day progressed though, capping kept increasing. We ended up near Brunswick, NE waiting for the cap to bust. There was a little lift from a short wave, but the atmosphere was too capped off for the storm to develop any further. We enjoyed a beautiful sunset before we head back to Sioux City, Iowa.

Photo by Nathaniel Shearer

During our long drive towards our target we stopped at a local school and stretched our legs on the playground. The town of Brunswick held a few interesting features, such as a broken down hearse in front of an old home and a lot full of rusting automobiles. Our find of the day was a rundown shack in a field where we parked to watch the storm. Dr. Dixon was brave enough to look inside and found multiple animal pelts hanging from the ceiling. It was quite a shock!

Photos by Nathaniel Shearer

Though the day was uneventful weather-wise, we had a good time with lots of laughter. We ended our long day with a delicious dinner at Chili’s near our hotel before calling it a night. Tomorrow we’ll hopefully encounter a better setup for severe storms!

First of all, it was one of the chasers birthdays today and what a birthday it was!  We started off our day in in Andover, Kansas and met up to talk about what was going to go on today.

The ingredients were all there for a storm to develop.   At the beginning of the storm, there was 3500 level CAPE, which means instability was definitely there.  The wind shear was very good at the time of the storm and along the warm front there were the best hodographs, which showed very organized super cell development. There was moisture convergence in the surface mixing ratios and arrows were converging.

We decided to go for western Kansas along the dry line to play the triple point.  There was a 5% chance that tornadoes would occur here. We headed more toward Hays.  We started out thinking it could have been a frustrating day because of the amount of cap that was along our target area.  All we needed was for that cap to break. GOOD THING IT DID!!!

While making our way to Kinsley Kansas, we passed through Greensburg, In 2007, the town got hit by a F5 tornado.  Everything was wiped out in the town.  You can still see the signs of the damage to the trees in the town.  We stopped at a local meat place and got some sandwiches and hit the road.

While waiting for the cap to break, we went to a nice park in Kinsley, Kansas where everyone seemed to enjoy themselves.  Some of us climbed trees and others stayed in the van because of the heat.  Temperatures were in the low 90s at this point.

We left the park and headed out and got to see the cap break.  This was nice to see.  It was really cool to see the progression of the storms as they went through their phases. We moved to where we thought the storm would initiate and had to drive to Liebenthal, Kansas.  We saw a few gustnadoes with this cell.

We moved away from the cell a little ways down the road and stationed ourselves again and our first tornado appeared.  It was a nice and long rope tornado near Walker, Kansas.  It was really cool to see it and most of us chasers have never seen a tornado before hit the ground.  It was definitely a great chase day for the chasers!

Three out of the four cells that we saw today fired up in McCracken.  The last three fired around the town and produced multiple tornado reports.

While the last cell was moving through, we decided to follow it through the night and we got a very nice lightning show.  It was reported as a stove-pipe tornado, but we didn’t see any signs of a tornado, just a nice wall cloud.

Things went really well for us today and the storms fired relatively close to our target area.       As for tomorrow, we are headed back to the north.

With the moderate risk in Minnesota and Wisconsin out of driving range from our starting point in Lincoln, Nebraska, our class decided to head south into Kansas to chase. Our target was the tail end of the cold front east of Wichita, KS, along the northern edge of a plume of rich Gulf moisture. With convective initiation before sundown in doubt and capping across the region a concern, we did not have high expectations for the day but were hoping for at least a nice lightning show after dark.

The drive started on a high note with a stop at the Runza restaurant in York, NE, where we feasted on their (in)famous hot pocket-like Runza sandwiches and once again ran into Sean Casey and the TIV.

Mmmmmm

Continuing south toward Wichita, KS, we were able to see the surface boundary slowly come into view over the horizon. A sharp line of cumulus clouds separated the drier air behind the front from the juicy warm sector. This was a neat experience for those of us on our first Plains chase trip, as these types of sharply-defined boundaries are rarely seen in the eastern part of the country.

After a quick souvenir stop at Wichita State University, we headed eastward toward Eureka, KS to position ourselves east of the boundary. During the drive, storms began to fire along the boundary to our north. They did not turn severe or display any rotation, but they still provided some picturesque scenes south of Emporia, KS that we stopped to enjoy.

Kyle Berry having a religious experience

While we were chowing down on a delicious dinner at Bobby D’s in Emporia, a storm to our northeast began to intensify and produce some impressive lightning. After darkness fell we headed north to a field just outside of town and enjoyed the show:

While today didn’t provide anything overly spectacular, things panned out almost exactly as we forecasted and the class got to experience Great Plains thunderstorms for the third straight day. Tomorrow we will have an early morning discussion to assess a complex forecast and likely head to Salina, KS to set up for the day.

After rising early in Aberdeen, South Dakota, we analyzed the surface observations and upper air data to determine our chase target. Sufficient moisture was accompanied by 40-60 knot shear in east-central to southeast Nebraska, but highest CAPE values were limited to southeast Nebraska and central Kansas.  Taking these components into account, Grand Island, Nebraska, was determined a good central location to begin our chase day.

After a six-hour haul to our chase city, we stopped for lunch and assessed weather data.  Initiation had yet to begin, and we determined we need to be farther east to see storm structure. So we then headed to Aurora, Nebraska, and stopped at a neighborhood park to enjoy some frisbee and “soccer-tennis.”  After playing while waiting for initialization, we headed further east to Seward, Nebraska.  Here we saw the Tornado Intercept Vehicle, made famous by IMAX film maker, Sean Casey.  Late this evening, we chased a tornado-warned cell in Ceresco, Nebraska, that produced two gustnadoes, which form in the outflow region of a thunderstorm but do not connect to the cloud-base.

While pulling into our hotel parking lot in Lincoln, Nebraska, a tight couplet was seen on radar to our west by Dr. Grady Dixon.  We left the hotel to get a better vantage point of the rotation at a nearby gas station, but the rotation quickly weakened. Tomorrow we could be chasing in Kansas, depending on how the ingredients come together.

Student Emily Yates documenting storm near Ceresco, NE

Panorama of storm near Ceresco, NE

Beginning of gustnado near Ceresco, NE

Gustnado near Ceresco, NE

Our majestic leader!

Written by Tami Gray

We woke up in Waterntown SD with a tough decision on our hands as we tried to discern the difficult setup that was ahead of us. Two distinct locations were discussed among the group; one being a central North Dakota play where the best moisture and instability would be, while northern North Dakota provided the best shear to organize storms with limited instability but best backed winds at the surface which supports the development of tornadoes. A cloud deck moving from west to east also added difficulty to our forecast. Strong capping through most of the Dakotas could keep storms from initiating, or initiate in the afternoon hours. Depending on where storms initiated as well, we may end up too far north to make a play on what looks to be a south eastern to south central Nebraska severe weather event Wednesday. Topography would also be a large factor today, because a river running through central North Dakota wold block access to a western route if storms fired west of the river. After discussing the setup and options available, it was decided that we would drive to Bismark North Dakota in order to have plenty of road options depending on where storms initiate throughout the day.

After marching north to Fargo North Dakota and taking a short visit to Moorhead Minnesota, we took a short break in Fargo to spend some time at a park further assessing the setup.

Passing time at a park to assess data

After leaving Fargo we headed to Jamestown SD to stop at a Subway and grab lunch. We then continued west toward our target location of Bismark continuing to monitor the developing storm system.

After reaching Bismark, we then took another break to determine our next move, either wait for storms that may possibly develop at our current location or begin to chase storms that were beginning to develop on radar, but with a very weak signature. After continuing to monitor the weak initial cells, one caught our eye that began to blossom with decent structure associated with it. We then decided to follow this storm and headed toward the north just southwest of Minot North Dakota.

Anvil of the storm we targeted

The storm first came into view around 6:00 p.m. The anvil structure associated with it was impressive, and as we began to approach the base of the storm, we witnessed a surprise rapidly rotating wall cloud and lowering funnel cloud.

Very thin funnel cloud that developed very quickly

After watching this funnel rapidly rotate and dangle from the base of the storm, we continued to chase the storm which eventually developed into a garden variety thunderstorm. While continuing to observe the storm, we received one more surprise with a modest intensification of the storm we were viewing to our south. Hail began to fall at a modest rate ranging from pea to quarter size. It was a successful end to a spot on forecast in a fairly difficult setup.

Hail just under the severe threshold of 1". Still fairly large regardless.

We ended the night with a long drive south ending in Aberdeen South Dakota to be in range for our next target Wednesday.

"The Instructor In The Classroom"

Tami Gray, Becca Ollier, and Dr. Dixon engaged in conversation about the unique texture of the hail that fell

Update: Although hard to discern from our own pictures, photos taken from other vantage points show the needle funnel cloud we witnessed in contact with the ground.  No confirmed tornado reports have been made, but it is possible that May 22nd marks the 1st tornado sighting of the 2012 WKU Storm Chase Class! The issue, we believe, is that the contrast and lighting on the back side of the funnel cloud may have washed out a view of the funnel in contact with the ground at our location.  Hopes are that updates on the matter will manifest themselves later on throughout the class.

Hello readers,
Now an annual event, yesterday 8 students and 2 professors embarked on a journey across the great plains to forecast and verify severe convection. This ‘storm chasing’ class is meant as a capstone experience for young meteorologists to perfect their forecasting skill that they were lectured on at WKU. Daily updates on this blog will begin today, and run through the next 13 days. The blog posts will cover forecasted targets for severe weather,as well as chase day recaps and just our entire journey as us students experience cool things along the way. For those in the ‘twitterverse’ we will aslo be frequently updating our trip @wkustormchase on twitter.

Our journey began yesterday by leaving from Bowling Green, and ended last night ,after 600 miles of driving, in Kansas City, MO. Maybe its a precursor of things to come, but we got to drive through a weak squall line on the way out. At sunset, we were treated to a great view of yesterdays solar eclipse.

Today is being treated as another driving day as we target the Dakotas for tomorrow. A low pressure center is forecast to deepen as moisture begins to return along the front range. Full details will be blogged tomorrow, but this appears to be our first chase-able day. Sufficient instability, forecasted dew points in the 60’s, as well as ample shear, will provide an environment conducive to severe convection. Stay tuned !

1.  Friday will be a great day! Fair skies and highs from 70-75 after morning lows in the upper 40′s.

2. Saturday a low pressure system will develop along the gulf coast advecting clouds and moisture northward into the region. As a result, nighttime lows will be warmer around 50 with highs in the mid to upper 70′s. A little warmer due to return flow. I can’t rule out a shower or two late based on the timing with some of the modeling.

3. Sunday The low pressure system will continue to track along the gulf coast This will result in widespread showers and rumbles of thunder mainly across the south. There is quite a difference in model QPF. However several of the GFS ensemble members are wetter than the operational. I also feel that the ECMWF is to aggressive with QPF. I’m thinking a 1/3-2/3 inch of rainfall for Sunday. Lows will be around 60 with highs only around 70 due to clouds and rain.

4. Next week this system may be a slow-mover which can dent the rainfall deficit. The WKU field methods course out in the plains also starts next week Should be a few active days to start. They will update the blog starting next week for the duration of the trip.

5. Already seeing some tropical interest peaked on the GFS around memorial day with a hit to the southeast U.S, a very long ways away and I don’t think it is likely.

6. From all of us who are graduating this spring and summer we thank you for checking out this site for weather information. This has been an important resume and forecasting skills builder for many here in the meteorology department!

GAINES

1. Monday a front will move into the region. With this will bring a likelihood of showers and storms in the afternoon and night. instability will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds. I don’t expect widespread severe weather due to the lakc of shear in place. Highs will be in the low 80′s after morning lows in the low 60′s. My main concern is for the storms to be slow moves with training and slow eastward progression, this may lead to some isolated high water  issues as well.

2.  Tuesday the front checks up to our southeast. As a result, clouds and a few showers may linger . Lows will be around 60 with highs in the mid 70′s. Wednesday may feature similar conditions. Lows in the upper 50′s and highs in the low 70′s.

3. Thursday will be sunny with lows in the upper 40′s and highs in the upper 60′s.

4. Overall the pattern into the middle of the week establishes an east coast trough for week 2 of May as pointed out by the ECMWF weekly model last week. My thinking is more fronts and storms to keep the heat in check till the last week of the month.

GAINES

The Storm Prediciton Center has released a new update for severe storms for parts of NW Kentucky. A weak front passes through this afternoon affecting areas primarily north and west of Bowling Green. The chance for storms will increase through the afternoon into the evening with the main threat being primarily strong winds and severe hail.

As for the rest of the week, Tuesday afternoon is looking like the next round of rain for the week until the weekend. A few of these storms could be accompanied by an isolated thunder shower and heavier rainfall amounts. Temps for Tuesday are looking to level off in the mid 80s as well as for the rest of the week.

Sorry for the break in coverage on the blog. However I will be forecasting for you till the close of the semester.

1. Today we have a Stationary front parked over the Ohio river and a cold front with low pressure over the central plains. This will transport warm and moist air into the region. The frontal boundary may also serve to trigger some scattered storms primarily to our north. A sufficient amount of instability will be present today, marked by steep low level lapse rates ( change in temperature with height) and CAPE values of 1500-2500 J/KG. This may promote a threat for damaging winds and large hail with any storm. Highs will be in the 80’s today with mostly sunny skies. Storm chances are only around 30%.

2. Sunday and Monday the stationary boundary to our north lifts a little further north as a warm front and the cold front stays over the plains. This allows ridging to continue to build over our region. This results in sinking air at the surface preventing convection development and keeping any storm chance isolated (15%) at best with mostly sunny skies. Though once again  instability will be sufficient for any isolated storm to become severe with similar threats to today. lows will be in the lower 60’s with highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds through Tuesday should be out of the south and not to gusty.

3. Tuesday the cold frontal boundary approaches which is the trigger needed to increase storm chances to likely. Also shear will increase as well giving us our best chance of severe weather for the forecast  period. Though if storms arrive to early then instability will lack due to cloud cover. Lows will be in the lower 60’s with highs in the 70’s.

GAINES