After taking a look at the new SREF in addition of the 12 models I think the best chance of snow around an inch does stay north of us.
– The best region of Omega lift and frontgenical forcing appear to be along I-64 this afternoon. slightly further north than what appeared on Friday’s models. This line of thinking matches the 12z US models which provide light snow from Lexington to Ashland later today.
Modeling has gone south with a very week clipper system expected to track across western KY and through the Nashville the region late Saturday afternoon and evening. Good clipper track for snow, but it’s a very week clipper. Due to the increase in clouds I’m lowering highs to the mid 30’s given lows may run slightly cooler than forecasted with the snow on the ground.
– Right now the clipper shows up over northeast Nebraska as a period of light snow. This should continue moving southeast toward our region arriving late Saturday afternoon. Since this is a very week system it may fall apart and not give any snow.
– One favorable point for snow is it should encounter a region where lift is a little better Saturday afternoon, this could be west of us in which case light snow would be likely, the NAM. Or it could be on top on east of us only giving southeast KY a period of light snow, elevation will help them as well.
– In my view this is a 50% of a period of light snow with a coating to an inch of snow. Snow if it does occur could once again makes things slick.
The SPC WRF is really bullish on this snow while the RUC has no QPF. May be morning before we know what to expect.
A nice band of snow showers has trained over Central Warren county in the last hour as the snow pushes an inch deep now. These snow showers should become more isolated after midnight. Roads are still slick and snow covered allow caution!
A winter weather advisory remains in effect. The steadiest precipitation has moved out before a changeover to snow could occur. Temperatures are still falling and will be in the 20’s by evening and low 20’s by Friday morning. Although the steadiest precipitation has moved out scattered snow showers are occurring over western Tennessee and Kentucky. These scattered snow showers will likely increase in coverage some this afternoon and continue periodically into Friday morning. Average accumulation should range from a dusting to just over half an inch. Blowing snow is also possible as winds increase this afternoon. Roads should stay wet for the next few hours as temperatures won’t reach 32 till late afternoon. Snow showers could still produce slick spots on the roads after dark and for the Friday morning commute.
Winter weather advisory in effect for Thursday afternoon till Friday morning*
Highlights
– Falling temperatures, along with snowy and windy conditions Thursday
– Slick travel expected Thursday night and Friday morning
– Weak clipper system Saturday night with a chance for flurries,
better chance of snow stays north
Forecast: A strong cold front will move through in the morning
allowing temperatures to drop sharply from the 40’s Thursday morning
to the upper 20’s by evening and around 20 by Friday morning. Rain
showers should develop by late morning changing to snow between 1 and
3 pm. Snow showers then will be likely Thursday afternoon and evening
diminishing to flurries for Friday. Most areas will see some light
snow accumulations with a few isolated high totals around or slightly
over 1 inch where heavy snow showers fall with most spots from a
dusting to 3/4 inch. Snow will fall with temperatures below freezing
late Thursday afternoon and night leading to development of slick
spots on roads. In addition enough instability may be present for
locally heavy snow showers perhaps even with a rumble of thunder from
mid to late Thursday afternoon. These heavier snow showers may allow
roads to become quickly snowcovered at times. In addition winds are
expected to increase from 15-25 mph with higher gusts out of the west
causing a potential for blowing snow. Overall travel due to wintry
weather may become a little tricky from late Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning even though snow amounts are not foretasted to be all
that high due to blowing snow, increased snowfall rates and falling
temperatures. Highs Friday should reach 30 with mostly cloudy skies
and patchy flurries winds will diminish some to around 10 mph, still a
cold day. On Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun highs should reach
the upper 30’s to low 40’s after lows around 20. Attention turns to a
clipper system Saturday night, current forecast thoughts take this
clipper overhead which would increase clouds and bring a period of
light snow to southern Indiana along with central and southeast
Kentucky only giving our region some flurries Saturday night. If the
clipper were to track further to the south then light accumulations of
perhaps 1 inch could occur, right now this should stay north of our
region, but confidence is not that high at this time. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 20’s Saturday night which again could lead to slick
spots if snow does fall. Winds overall should range from 5-10 mph out
of the west for Friday and Saturday. By Sunday a warmer southwest flow
should move into the region with mostly sunny skies after morning
clouds depart from the weak clipper system and highs in the low to mid
40’s. This forecast period features some wintry weather and likely end
all talk of a snowless winter but it should noted long range
indications show a return to the mild and sometimes wet pattern after
this forecast period perhaps lasting through months end. Another
statement will be issued around noon for benefit of school officials
needing up to date information for early release decisions. Another
statement will be issued Thursday night for schools on Friday. In the
unlikely event Saturdays clipper comes further south another statement
will be issued for that.
Lead forecaster: MWG
Why will it snow Thursday?
– I showed the nice 500 mb vort max moving through yesterday.
– the Omega lift looks very impressive on the SREF from noon to 4 pm.
– A deep dendritic growth zone is present on the modeled soundings for the afternoon and evening
– instability will be due to steep low level lapse rates and some CAPE thus the outside chance for thunder
– The snow will be tracked throughout the day here!
Saturday’s clipper
– almost all of these go to the north
– It’s the kiss of death to have one in the region 7 days out that means it’s to strong and tracks further north.
– This one is week and the upper air pattern shows it has a shot to track into KY. Though I think it tracks over us which still brings any light snow to the bluegrass and southeast KY.
1. It looks like the western option for the low track for Wednesday, Over the region will turn out correct. Also with timing a few hours faster now concerns over thunderstorms in the gulf taking away moisture known as convective feedback is less. The SREF and operational models have responded by increasing QPF into the 1-2 inch range. Some heavy rainfall rates may occur Wednesday morning. A key to the much lower QPF forecast in the last update was a further southeast low track that looks unlikely now. I think most of us will be around an inch of rain.
2. Winds become light for a while Tuesday this lead to a few things. Mainly radiational cooling leading to lows a few degrees colder than advertised and highs never recovered. Also the formation of Freezing fog occurred in spots.
3. Snow showers are likely Thursday and I will detail this more on Wednesday. This may end my talk of a historic snow-less winter even if it’s a few tenths of an inch. The ECMWF has really ramped up the threat picking up on an impulse and threat the lakes are running very warm now ready to transport moisture southeast.
The GFS model has it as well moving into the region. The trough moving in will lead to a more normal pattern for this time of the year a few days.
Notice another impulse off the southwest coast. Yesterday the GFS had a winter storm from this cutting across the country but today the GFS has turned around to the ECMWF point of view and cuts it into the lakes. Another rain maker early next week around here and this solution matches the tanking – PNA.
1. Once again by day 3 in the last forecast temperatures were to cool. Since this has happened a few times now I will go a few degrees above the warmest guidence and see if that works. I also suspect something may be a little off with the Bowling Green ASOS as well being 2-4*F warmer than most anything else around it.
2. Clouds will increase by Monday morning however it looks the advection of low level cold air which prompted a concern for a slight chance of a wintry mix will not move in with temperatures to start the day around 40 highs will be from 50-55. However weak systems will still pass just to our south along a old frontal boundary prompting a small chance for rain showers early. winds should be from 5-10 mph out of the north.
3. Tuesday winds will be more out of the west at 5-10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny as we’ll be between a system off shore and a closed low in the south. lows should range from 32-37 with highs in the 54-59 range. Once again another Jan day where highs could get close to 60 BOOO! Even with the cold blast we’re 5*F above normal for the month, yuck.
4. Clouds will increase as rain develops by sunrise winds will turn more out of the southeast 5-10 mph. Wednesday will be rainy most of the day with 1/3-1/2 inch of rain, locally higher amounts. The rain should diminish to patchy light rain showers at night. Some slight advection of instabilty marked by decreasing LI values and very low CAPE values is possibile and result in a rumble of thunder. That of course assumes a low track overhead the ECMWF slightly further southeast track would not allow for this instabilty advection. Highs should be in the 50’s after lows in the 40’s.The QPF total fits the SREF fairly good and is a little lower than most guidance due to concerns over convective feedback and the track of the low not being favorable for the highest rain totals.
5. It will get colder for a few days again late this week. The 12z ECMWF from Sunday does provide a low chance for snow Saturday but I’m not hopeful. Maybe a few flurries Thursday night. Still looking more and more likely by the day we have a shot at tieing 2nd place for a winter record of a trace in the least snowiest winter department set back in 1949-50,1956-57 ( Still one of the two analogs on my list!) and 1918-19. If we don’t get any snow through the spring then we have the least snowiest winter in Bowling Green History which ties the mark of 1918-19 and 1949-50.
1. Forecasted Highs have been to cool the past few days and I’ve been going with the warmer NAM/ECMWF guidance in most cases. Guess it’s not enough.
2. no changes for Friday though highs could hit 60. Friday Should see an increase high clouds but remain dry winds will be gusty from the southwest at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
3. Clouds should thicken and winds become light from the north by Saturday morning as a front moves through. I also like the chances that patchy fog and areas of light drizzle/rain develop. Temperature should range throughout the 50’s during the day.
4. The front checks up to our south with low level cold air still coming into the region. At the same time to start next week some week disturbances may track along the boundary Sunday. These could provide the chance for light freezing or sleet in the mornings early next week with rain showers in the afternoon. For now I’m going with mostly cloudy conditions with a 30% chance of light rain perhaps mixing with sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Lows will be from the upper 20′s to low 30′s with highs in the 40′s to low 50’s. This concern with low level cold air and chances for frz rain go into next week’s system as well. Low public impact from any frozen precip.
UPDATE on Sat 1/7: going to take precip chances down to 20% for just very light rain perhaps mixing with sleet Sunday morning. No measureable frozen precip.
Looking ahead we have a system of interest for the middle of next week. I feel fairly confident in another closed low moving into the region by the middle of the week. At the same time a blast of arctic air will move into the plains from the northern branch of the Jet. Main question is can these phase and can a phased system take a favorable track for snow?
The answer is not likely.
The ECMWF has The closed low cut to our west then really doesn;t phase the branches. The result is mid week rain to flurries. The graphic is to big to post.
http://mitchg.wordpress.com/12z-euro-model-images/
The GFS really doesn’t phase either.
Take a note of the diving 500 mb trough into the plains and the closed vort max over the south
Timeframe of 500 mb images is Tuesday though Thursday of next week.
For snow in our region from this we would need the northern trough and closed low to phase in the south then the low to track just east of the Appalachians and north. I really don’t see this occurring. Though once again some snow flurries and snow show showers could occur on the backside.
Late next week I think the arctic blast is quick once again and we begin a back and forth pattern which overall averages slightly above normal.
Now on to the Debate part of the post. A look at some of the long GFS products show a major pattern change,
first take a look at a crashing AO
Note how it’s + all winter so far. It was strongly – for the last two winters.
More stratospheric warming as well.
The stratospheric warming episode is about a week away plus a few weeks lag time for it to influence our weather pattern. So far each warming episode has corresponded to a nice quick shot of cold. Following these images from the GFS 10 mb shows another warming episode ( current to day 10) which could influence the pattern toward the end of the month. I also like the look of the cold anomoly, one more warming episode after this could get rid of it, in which case February could be cold such as 1971-72.
However the euro Weekly forecast out tonight indicates a return of the blowtorch by the end of the month. This long range model indicates well above normal temperatures after the 20th, untill then it goes back and forth. Remember it was overdone on the warmth for week 2 of Jan and missed the last cold shot. The state of the PNA supports the ECMWF long range. A – PNA supports a southeast ridge.
A trough moves through on the 12th I suppose there is chance of light snow which could be measurable but it’s unlikely forat this time. With nothing coming quickly after that odds favor making to the halfway point of meteorological winter without a measurable snowfall.
Lexington, KY has a shot at some snowless records
The record for the latest measurable snow in a season at Lexington was January 30th of 1932. Once again this winter only 2.1 inches of snow at Lexington and if the pattern goes the way of the ECMWF weekly model we have a great shot to set a mark that is lower than this for seasonal snow. Once again 1956-57 and 1971-72 are the only years in my analog package form the orignal winter forecast that remain and both are on the least snowiest years list for the region.
I’m already starting to look at next winter. Right now it looks like snow and cold fans will be jumping for joy next winter with heavy hitting analogs in terms of snow and cold as el-nino returns within a cold PDO. However still a year off. Many many things could still influence that line of thinking.
1. Very little snow fell across our region. However due to slick spots in some regions the advisory was issued. My take is when the next advisory is issued it may not be taken as seriously since little occurred in our region.
2. Wednesday Will have an increase in clouds for the night with lows in the lower to mid 20’s and highs in the mid 40’s.
3. Lows will be around 30 Thursday morning with highs around 50. Mostly sunny skies are expected as well.
4. Winds may once again become gusty form 10-15 mph Wednesday and Thursday with gusts to 20 mph.
5. Two snow chances to watch to get us on the snow board. First one is a chance rain changes to snow with a wave along a front this weekend. Second is phasing between an arctic boundary and system coming out of the gulf next week.