WKU Meteorology

All is remaining quiet. No need to really talk about much of anything. Zonal flow continues to keep things clear. Temperatures should remain constant with the low to mid 80’s for highs with a low dipping to around the mid-50’s. Continue reading →

It looks like we’ll have another great weekend of weather across south central Kentucky. Continue reading →

The line of storms out to our west has continued to strengthen and organize as it has entered far western Kentucky. The SPC has had several reports of wind damage and 1″ inch across portions of northeastern Arkansas and southern Illinois. It would be reasonable to expect similar results for our area. We currently have a bulls-eye of decent LI along with increasing CAPE over the past couple of hours for south central Kentucky. But now that night has descended upon us, any potential for further instability has all but ended. Bottom line: expect some good soaking rains with this line of storms as it passes in a couple hours, along with some decent winds (35+ mph) and perhaps even small hail.

South central Kentucky could see some decent storms overnight as a cold front advances into the area from the west. Continue reading →

We’ve been getting spoiled over the Mid-South lately with great weather, and that will continue into the early part of the week. Continue reading →

A few stronger storms have be present along this period of showers and thunderstorms this morning . Strong winds with these thunderstorms have resulted in some reports of wind damage this morning in surrouding counties. This period of showers and storms has rapidly diminished in the last hour and the activity is moving away from Bowling Green.

As for Monday the spc has  elevated morning thunderstorms with a slight risk to our northwest, where the potential for any severe storms sets up will depend on how fast the warm front   moves through, slower timing would be needed for stronger storms late in the day. The nws only has  a shower chance I’m not sure what there thinking  is as the model indices are indicating at least the chance for thunderstorms.

1. Friday will see another day where Bowling Green is close to record highs with southerly flow and mostly sunny skies. However, like the past few days the moisture advection will be very limited allowing the region to flirt with red flag warning criteria again  as humidity values will be low with highs in the mid 80’s.

2. By Saturday a cold front should allow for the increase of clouds, a period of showers and thunder should approach the region as well but weaken as it moves through our region around 9 am thanks to the dry airmass in place keeping rainfall amounts light. Even with the rain and clouds highs should still be in the mid 70’s.

3. A great Easter Sunday is in store for easter egg hunts or outdoor plans with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70’s.

4. The region may see it’s first real shot at some severe weather next week. Model guidance has a powerful cold front coming through midweek which may produce a squall line of thunderstorms and the chance for some strong storms from a warm frontal system Monday. However this potential event is still several days away and the forecast will be updated as needed.

First a news headline:

A mix of heavy snows melting and several hvy rain producing nor-Easters has led to a epic flood in New England this is worst flood since 1939 for Rhode Island.

http://www.windstream.net/wind/portal/NewsChannel.aspx?ArticleID=D9EP9Q680&CatID=TopHeadlines

While for us here in Kentucky we have had several months in a row of below normal precipitation and a deficit has developed. This coupled with an expected transition to la-nina by late summer lead to the likelihood of a drought forming this summer across Kentucky. This transition from el-nino to la-nina can be compared to the summers of 1999 and 2007 when moderate to strong el-ninos in the wintertime shifted to la-ninas by late summer. A drought would also mean a hot summer overall. This conclusion does not match up with the climate prediction center which has an equal chances forecast this summer, which is it may be colder or warmer than normal.

Bowling Green -5.78 inches

Lexington -5.01 inches

 Louisville -4.73 inches

Jackson -1.55 inches

London -2.51 inches