WKU Meteorology

1. Over the weekend the region ended up seeing more of a northerly flow off the great lakes which allowed for some light snow showers to continue into Saturday the total for the clipper and these snow showers was just over 2 inches. Last night it was easy to tell where it was clear (temps near 0 due to snow) and cloudy (still over 10*) , this goes to show that with clear skies a  snowcover can easily take 5 or 10 degrees off overnight lows, here’s a look at the mesonet lows.  Today highs should get into the 20’s regionwide. Continue reading →

Any student who has taken my synoptic meteorology course knows that there is a very good reason snowfall forecasts tend to bust for Bowling Green. Synoptically speaking, every good snowfall storm track tends to miss this region. The three primary snowfall tracks are 1) Nor’easters, which typically only bring snow to far eastern KY (Dec 19-21), 2) Plains blizzards, which put us in the warm sector as all rain (Dec 24-25), and 3) Alberta Clippers (or Manitoba Maulers, if you will), which are most likely to break our hearts with a busted forecast (Today). Continue reading →

A cold front with a wave of low pressure is expected to track just to the north of the region Thursday. This will spread a large area of snow throughout the region starting around dawn and lasting into the mid afternoon before a dry slot comes through. temperatures will be in the 20’s Thursday across the mid south with average accumulations of 2-4 inches thanks in large part to snow ratios close to 20:1. The main variable that has lead to shifts in forecasted accumulations is the amount of qpf right now the models have come into good agreement for about .15 qpf, around 3 inches of snow. snow will stick to all surfaces and will lead to deteriorating travel conditions throughout the day in addtion winds will pikc up to around 10 mph allwoing for blowing snow as well to reduce visbailtes. tommorow I will go into winter storm mode with updates or comments every few hours on the winter weather situation. Allow extra time when traveling tomorrow. Although we are under a winter storm watch i see the entire mid south region being switched to a winter weather advisory later today but this will still be a serious winter system to affect the mid south with large scale impacts.  To see how this cold stretch ranks all time please see Dr.Goodrich’s write up from earlier this week.

Today was the 3rd straight day with a high temperature under 32 F for Bowling Green. The forecast calls for sub-freezing high temperatures through at least Monday of next week which would fall just short of the all-time record of 11 straight sub-freezing highs set from 1/22-2/1 1948. In all, this is shaping up to be the most impressive cold snap since the Januarys of 1977-1979, which each had over 13 days of sub-freezing highs.

1. This afternoon highs should be able to recover into the mid 20’s thanks to mostly sunny skies after a very chilly start. Continue reading →

 The main headline for the eastern United States will be a very strong arctic airmass which will dominate the weather pattern for at least the next week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 20’s and lows in the 10’s each day with blustery nw winds. This period of expected extreme cold over 10*F below normal will likely be one of longest in recent memory for the mid-south. Teleconnections wise this is set-up by a negative nao, ao, and epo. Also weak disturbances in the flow may lead to some scattered flurries and light snow from time to time. Continue reading →

1. Cold nw winds and overcast skies will only allow for highs in the low to mid 30’s Monday across the mid south.

2. Tuesday should be a seasonable day with more sunshine and highs near 40 thanks to high pressure moving in.

3. This high pressure should allow for a decent influx of warm air advection into the region for Wednesday and Thursday with fresh cold air not arriving till late Thursday. This means that the diagramed rain or snow chance for Wednesday night although light should be rain. Highs Wednesday and Thursday should be in the upper 30’s to 40 with thickness values over 540 and 850 mb temps above 0 all of these lead to the conclusion of mainly rain across the mid south from this storm. However by Thursday night the secondary low should track to our southeast which may change the rain over to some snow, this looks to take more time to deelvop meaning lighter precip than I had shown on the last post. At this time only light snow showers and flurries are expected from Thursday night into early Saturday.

4. The first arctic blast of the season will be coming for the new year which will be covered in the next update toward the end of the week.  There could be a chance for very light snow Sunday although this could be further west toward Kansas City and Memphis.

1. Another windy day across the region today. More windy weather is expected into Monday thanks in part to the leftovers of the Christmas storm which will bring a cold front through Sunday night. However the snow chances with this front will be to our north with only scattered flurries expected. Highs should be in the upper 30’s Sunday with lows in the 20’s. This chilly weather mostly cloudy skies and flurrie chances linger into Monday thanks to nw flow. Continue reading →

1. Wednesday will be ok for travel across the mid south and lower Ohio Valley for the Holidays. However once you get into the rockies or midwest travel gets tricky because of a low pressure system bringing rain, snow and wind to those regions.  Although it will be mostly cloudy here highs should still reach the mid to upper 40’s. Continue reading →

Through December 18, Bowling Green had recorded 58.89″ of rain for the year, which ranks 12th all-time since 1893. With a big rain event forecast for the days before Christmas, 2009 should break past the 60″ mark and reach the top 10.

Continue reading →