As mentioned in a recent post the see-saw pattern will swing back to cold this weekend. Thursday’s storm will bring more rain and possibly severe weather to the Mid-South and will bring temperatures down to seasonable levels (low 40s/upper 20s). What happens after that is still uncertain. Continue reading
My wife, who is from northern Indiana where winters are fierce, gets very nervous every winter when the Mid-South has near-record warm weather like today with high temperatures flirting with 70 degrees. She always wonders if these spring-like days are due to global warming. I did a little research today and found that not only is 70 degrees in January not that unusual for south-central KY, it actually occurred twice as often during the first half of the 20th century as it did in the second half of the 20th century. Continue reading
See-saw pattern for the next two weeks. Winter should return prior to mid-month after a week-long mild-rainy period. Continue reading
NWS forecast for the higher elevations outside Mammoth Lakes, California for January 4.
Today: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 100 to 105 mph decreasing to between 80 and 85 mph. Winds could gust as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 45 to 51 inches possible.
Tonight: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph decreasing to between 55 and 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 39 to 45 inches possible.
Everything looks good for this storm from my previous post. As expected, the warm Gulf air mass and the SE ridge successfully advanced the line of scrimmage and pushed the storm track north and west, which will keep south-central KY mainly in the rain. Continue reading
Just a few days after record warmth (75 degrees!!) the models are pointing to a potential weekend snowstorm for the Mid-South this weekend. With the storm over 100 hrs away, there is no point trying to speculate on snow amounts or even which models (and which model runs) are the most accurate, since that often turns into wishcasting. Rather, at this point I will discuss the main players on the field and discuss the likely evolution of the synoptic features. Continue reading
Shawn Crowe writes “Medium range models are keeping us above freezing until at least the 17th of the month now. It’s not looking good for snowfall chances in KY this month, as this zonal pattern seems to be stubborn. What is your take Dr. Goodrich?”
Today’s cold front and flurries aside, the next week to ten days appears to reflect the pattern change I alluded to in my last blog posting where I mentioned a transition to a more zonal flow sometime around 12/10-15. The actual pattern change will occur a couple of days early and by this coming weekend the Mid-South will be >10F above normal for this time of year. Continue reading
The weather through the first 27 days of November has been quite variable but normal overall (Temp = -0.01; Precip. = 0.00 relative to normal). The pattern over the next two weeks should remain active with a series of storms. The first of the storms is shaping up and should begin affecting the Mid-South Saturday night. Continue reading
As is often the case with winter storms, I have not paid too much attention to the likelihood of severe weather with this front. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the Mid-South in a slight risk area for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. Continue reading
John Coleman, the founder of The Weather Channel and currently a TV Meteorologist in San Diego, made news recently by calling Global Warming “The greatest scam in history” on his blog that was also linked to a new website ICECAP that features commentary from scientists who are skeptical about Global Warming. Contrary with the recent skepticism, the recent report from the IPCC contains language that suggests man-made Global Warming is a near certainty. So what is the average person supposed to believe? Continue reading