WKU Meteorology

Good afternoon Folks!!

Forecasters around the area have been keeping their eyes on a potential storm system that could impact the region heading into the weekend. I will dive into the details on that later on in this post!

High pressure over the southeastern part of the United States will continue to drift eastward off the southeast coast during the afternoon and evening hours later on today. This will keep the area mostly dry throughout the day. Winds will ramp up from the SE throughout the day, which will help temperatures rebound back up into the middle 40s. A weaker cold front will drift southeastward across the area during the evening and overnight hours. This will give the Bowling Green area a slight chance of a rain/snow mix during the overnight hours. Temperatures for tonight will dip back down into the lower 30s right around the freezing mark.

High pressure will build in across the region heading into Friday, leaving the area with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. High temperatures on Friday will rise close to the 40° mark. Temperatures during the nighttime hours will fall back into the upper 20s across southern Kentucky.

A relatively strong shortwave trough will continue to develop across the southwest and move into the Texas Panhandle heading into Saturday morning. Rapid cyclogenesis (Cyclogenesis is the development or strengthening of cyclonic circulation in the atmosphere) will strengthen the shortwave into an area of low pressure as it crosses the state of TX.

Below: 500mb Relative Vorticity, 12/06/18 09Z – 12/09/18 18Z

The video above shows the spin or rotation of air at 500mb ( ~18,000 ft above the surface). This area of low pressure will continue to move across the south throughout the weekend and move off the coast early next week. While that happens, a strong mid-level disturbance will track towards the SE across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley throughout the weekend. The area of low pressure passing off to our south throughout this weekend has the chance of bringing potentially significant winter weather across the area. Overall model guidance is in agreement with each other with the possibility of winter weather across the region.

Overall confidence in a storm system impacting the area throughout this weekend remains high but, the confidence in the evolution, potential impact, and track of the storm system stays relatively low.

Below: Composite Reflectivity, Precipitation Type, 12/07/18 09Z – 12/09/18 18Z

REMEMBER, the animation above is only one model output!!

For further updates on this potential winter storm, tune into WKU Meteorology Blog, White Squirrel WX, or NWS Louisville.

Forecast

Thursday: Partly cloudy skies, high near 44°. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, gusts up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Slight chance of rain/snow showers, low of 31°. Light winds shift from W to N throughout the night.

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies, high temperature right around 40°. Slight breeze from the N.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy skies, low temperature of 28°. Slight breeze from the NE.

Saturday: Slight chance of rain in the afternoon, mixing with snow during the evening hours. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies, high temperature right around 37°. Winds out of the NE at 5-10 mph.

Good evening, Mid-South!

A bit of snow and mixing rain we got a chance to see out there for your Tuesday. Bowling Green received about 0.04″ of rain and a trace of snow up to this afternoon. After today you might be asking when will it snow again, and how much? Well to confirm this idea wouldn’t be fact but merely an opinion, but I’d be glad to share my concluding forecast.

Trend wise there is a distinctive surface high to the southwest of us creating a ginormous jet streak in the upper air from the northwest. While rising heights with the surface High in the OK/TX panhandle there will be overcasting skies throughout your Wednesday. This is due to the converging winds associated with the upper level jet. A shortwave Low, that was responsible for bringing that mix of snow and rain will surely move eastward and bring E. Ky trouble overnight and into Wednesday. Although, an overcasting view of skies doesn’t declare that we’ll certainly get rain for chances will be more valid in the morning before 7am… the peakedness of moisture. But however, due to moisture extraction with the high leveled atmosphere, rain chances drop to 10% with gradual clearing. 

For Thursday, the pattern here is similar to what we’ve seen for fall. A fast paced trough with an arctic flow diving into the Great Plains into the Midwest region where it meets an stable air mass in the South/Southwest to create saturation. I think conditions will be favorable for light snow but for Mid-South it isn’t so much so. Chances for snow will be more prevalent in the northern counties where the most amount of shear will take place. I wouldn’t expect more than the amount we received Tuesday: trace amount (0.00″) at a 30% chance.

WED: 35/29… Overcasting skies early on with a slight chance for a stray shower or two before 7am. Clearing gradually with a breezy wind from the North. Rain chances decrease afternoon.

THURS: 44/31… Partly sunny with an increase of humidity for the area. Chances of snow/rain mix between 1pm and 6pm are 30%. Trace values are expected for counties more closer to the OH Valley

After a really nice shot of warmth this past weekend, prepare to dive back into cold temperatures. To quickly put it into perspective, the high temps over the next few days won’t even be as high as the low temps from this past weekend. While the temperatures will be decreasing, the rain/snow flurry chances will be increasing slightly during the next 48 hours. Louisville is already seeing a few of these light showers that should be moving further south along I-65 in our direction tonight. While there are no expected travel impacts at this point, it never hurts to use a little extra caution when on the roads.

Cloudy conditions will persist throughout the rest of the day with the introduction of scattered drizzles throughout the night. Temps will drop below freezing overnight, leading to possible scattered flurries.

Any leftover flurries will turn back to a light rainy drizzle around noon Tuesday and remain that way until the sun sets. At that point, those drizzles will turn back to flurries before moving out of the Commonwealth entirely. Daytime temperatures won’t make it out of the 30s. Any drizzle/flurries will be very hit or miss. No travel delays are expected.

We’ll see much clearer sky conditions as high pressure starts building in to the Southeastern US Wednesday. Those clear conditions will continue overnight and allow for temps to drop even deeper into the 20s by Thursday morning.

Temperatures as depicted by the 12Z GFS from noon Monday to 6am Thursday. -Courtesy Pivotal Weather

Today: High of 45, cloudy, increasing rain/flurry chances overnight.

Tomorrow: Waking up to a cool 31 degrees! On and off flurry and rain chances throughout the day. High of 41.

Wednesday: Sunrise temp of 28, so bundle up! Mainly sunny with a high of 39.

Friday and Saturday saw some very interesting weather. Friday there was thick fog in the area with visibility as low as .5 miles near Elizabethtown. Tornado warnings were released for Oklahoma and Missouri. Saturday with snow in Nebraska (6 inches in Omaha) and Iowa along with 22 reported tornadoes in Illinois. Locally, yesterday was a stormy day with high a high of 62.

Unfortunatly, temperatures will dropping again as we go through the day and remain that way through the week. The first cold front has already passed through the area and another one is crossing into western Kentucky at the moment. As these fronts come through we are seeing some very heavy winds with maximum wind at 34 mph. A wind advisory is out until 6 pm. Gusts could be as high as 45 mph so please be careful.

Satellites show very little in the area because of the fronts. Something cool that can be seen on the satellite is the boundaries for the fronts. Check out how the satellite compares to the surface map.

GOES 16 satellite

Other than colder temperatures, Monday looks like it will be uneventful. There will some clouds in the sky as rain and snow chances for Tuesday arrive, but that is about it.

Looking at the model comparison and other data for Tuesday, snow appears more likely than rain. Now before everyone heads out to stock up on food, any snow we get will be nothing more than flurries.

Model comparison of Tuesday’s precipitation at its peak

Other than being cold, the start to this week will be uneventful.

SUMMARY:

• Sunday:
  • High: 66
  • Low: 35
• Monday:
  • High: 45
  • Low: 32
• Tuesday:
  • High: 39
  • Low: 27
  • A few flurries are possible. I would not completely count out a sprinkle or two if the temperature permits.

Stay safe and have a good week everyone! For those WKU students: 10 more school days left. Hang in there!

Surface Map (Source: COD)

A new mid-latitude storm system will pass through this weekend, bringing rain for the Bowling Green area and for most of Kentucky. We will be warmer though, with highs into the lower mid-60’s and lows in the mid-50’s for our Saturday. Sunday will still be warm, but it will be much quieter in terms of precipitation. Highs will be in the low 60’s, and lows will be in the upper-40’s.

6Z GFS SLP & Precipitation (Source: COD)

As our weekend concludes, so does the warmth. A cold front will pass for early Monday morning, bringing our high’s down to the mid-40’s, and our lows will be in the mid-30’s. Like Sunday, Monday will be more quiet. However, cloudiness will increase as Monday progresses.

Forecast:

Saturday: Periods of rain throughout the day; High: 61, Low: 56

Sunday: Periods of clouds and sun, High: 62, Low: 49

Monday: Increasing cloudiness, High: 46, Low: 36

Greetings!

Friday is the start of a wet next couple of days. As a warm front moves into the area bring WAA which will allow the high to be in the low 60s today. However, there is a sufficient amount of moisture available  mixed with a weak cold front near western Kentucky and it will confine the precipitation  from falling in parts of Kentucky. there will still be stratus clouds which will still make today seem gloomy. Into the night, a rush of low-level moisture associated with the warm front with spark showers over the area around 8-9 pm central time. There is plentiful amounts of rain available around 03z, 9pm CST according to 06z GFS. The temperatures will not fall much tonight. Rain will continue Saturday morning and will continue till about 3pm when dry area moves above the surface, but there will still be a small chance through the evening but clearing out before the day ends. There is little to no severe threat Saturday to Saturday evening with low instability

Sunday looks to be dry with winds from the south west with some god mixing could lead to gust from the tight pressure gradient  with a low to the north of the area. With a cold front moving into the area with the beginning of the weak we will see temperatures below average for this time of year.

Summary:

Friday: 61/56 Great chance of rain thorough-out the day greater at night

Saturday: 55/49 Chance of rain mostly morning through evening

Sunday: 65/40 Sunny

Monday: 48/33

Throughout the rest of this evening and heading into tomorrow morning, slightly warmer temperatures will advect into the Ohio River Valley, thanks to light winds out of the south. Overnight temperatures around the area are going to be a lot warmer than they have been over the past few nights. Temperatures will hover around the 50° mark throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. Rain chances are on the increase heading into the overnight hours as a weak shortwave disturbance propagates just to our north. This disturbance will tap into some of the moisture located in the lower levels of the atmosphere and spark off some shower activity. QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) will remain fairly light, with rainfall totals by daybreak right around a tenth of an inch.

Below: HRRR Composite Reflectivity 11/30/18 08Z (2 AM CST)

Heading into your Friday, extensive cloud cover will limit the temperatures from rising too much throughout the day, but temperatures will still remain well above average. The high temperature on Friday will hover right around the 60° mark. Shower chances will remain on the higher side for Friday night, as a boundary will hover around the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, triggering some showers around the area. Models are in agreement, indicating that a half to three-quarters of an inch of rain could fall by Saturday morning. The LLJ (Low-Level Jet) will crank up out of the southwest as a surface warm front moves north through our area. Low temperatures for Friday night, heading into Saturday morning will remain in the mid-50s.

Below: NAM 12-hr Accumulated QPF (in) 12/01/18 12Z (6 AM CST)

Any shower activity lingering around the will move on out of the area by the mid-to-late morning on Saturday. Slightly drier air will try to nose into the region, breaking up some of the cloud cover, areas west of the I-65 corridor could experience some sunshine during the early afternoon hours. As of right now, the area still has a shot of seeing some strong thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has the Bowling Green area under a marginal risk (1 out of 5 on the Categorial Outlook Legend) for severe weather. Stay tuned to the WKU Meteorology Blog and White Squirrel WX for further updates.

Forecast

Tonight: Chance of showers, low right around 50°. Winds out of the south at 8-10 mph, precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch.

Friday: Showers likely with cloudy skies, high of 61°. Winds out of the southwest at 5-9 mph, precipitation amounts below a quarter inch.

Friday night: Chance of showers, low of 54°. Winds out of the south at 8-15 mph, precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, a few storms could be on the strong side, high of 67°. Winds out of the south at 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph, precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch.

A powerful cold front equipped with gusty winds has impacted those high temperatures at the start of the week. Temperatures are going to be in the upper teens for both Wednesday and Thursday morning in most of the Mid-South Region. Temperatures will then excel into the 20°F margin by sunrise and into the upper 30°F due to a little Sun exposure. A report from the NWS discusses the Winter Advisory for some areas north of us…

“The Bluegrass region will have the longest residence time under the stratus deck and continuing light snow showers so will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going in that area for light accumulations of snow, and some impacted roadways. In addition, the current Special Weather Statement looks good through Midnight in all of the counties not in the Advisory but still under the stratus deck as it continues to snow. Slick spots should be more patchy in nature in these areas along with any light accumulations a half an inch or less. Will likely be able to trim some counties out of the SPS at Midnight, but will also probably have to extend some of the counties further north and east deeper into the overnight.” -NWS Forecast Discussion

The downstream trough leading into a ridge will become pivotal towards bringing colder air and the windy conditions throughout your Tuesday and Wednesday evening. Be sure to be careful while driving on the roads and be sure to secure the wheel with both hands! Bundle up those glands this week for the wind chill will cause temperatures to decrease below freezing for much of your day. Gloves, earmuffs, mittens, toboggans, are all to be included for Wednesday’s forecast. Thursday warms up just a tad with some sunnier weather adventuring from our west and we could possibly see 6o°F by Friday.

WEDN: 37°/17°F; Mostly sunny skies with a calmer wind gust. Dry air conditions due to lower dew points as that northerly flow converts to westerly. No precip

THURS: 43°F/28°F; Slight overcast and increasing clouds with systematic low off the Gulf coast. Some chances for early morning showers at 30% and afternoon showers at 50%.

In the past 24 hours, the air temperature has dropped 26 degrees. Yesterday we were sitting at a very comfortable 62 degrees; today, we’re sitting at 36. It’s nothing out of the ordinary for temperatures to swing like this during this time of year, but that doesn’t make experiencing the swing any easier. But if you hold on tight for the duration of the current temperature rollercoaster, you’ll be rewarded with a welcomed warm-up later this week. Let’s get started!

Today has been cold and very windy. Temperatures will stay in the 30s for the rest of the afternoon and drop into the mid 20s tonight. Those westerly winds will be calmer tonight that what they were yesterday, but they will continue to add an extra “bite” to the already cold conditions. Dense cloud cover will remain for the evening and nighttime hours.

GOES-16 satellite picture of the heavy cloud cover we had all day. Notice the snow in the upper left-hand corner in portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri. -Courtesy of College of DuPage Weather

Tuesday will be a clone of today until the evening rolls around. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the afternoon resulting in clear skies overnight into Wednesday morning. The removal of that deep cloud layer allows the longwave radiation emitted by the earth’s surface to escape into the upper levels of the atmosphere. Just like removing a blanket during the middle of the night, the loss of clouds will make for a very cold night: temps will reach deep down into the lower 20s for BG and potentially into the upper teens. This will be especially true for areas outside of the city limits.

After a very cold start, Wednesday will be a little warmer than today and Tuesday. Temps will edge right up to 40 for the high as southerly winds and clear sky conditions add some warmth to South Central KY.

And here’s a sneak peak at rising temps late on Thursday:

18Z GFS 2m temps, 10m winds, and pressure Thursday night. -Courtesy College of DuPage Weather

Tonight: Low of 25, but gusty conditions will make it feel like it’s in the teens. Winds from the West at 10 mph, but gusts will be around 16 mph.

Tuesday: High of 36, winds will still be gusting to near 20 mph.

Wednesday: Cool start of 20, but warming up to 40 by mid-afternoon.

Thursday: The first taste of the warming trend. High temps will be in the low 50s throughout the southern half of the Commonwealth.

Continue tuning in to see just how high our temps will go the closer we get to the weekend!