WKU Meteorology

It’s been a soggy February- and this wet pattern continues into the weekend.

Many areas across the region are dealing with flooding and overflowing rivers, and it looks like an additional 1-4 inches is yet to come. Remember, do not try to cross flooded roadways as the power of water can sweep a vehicle off the road!

After looking at models such as the 0Z NAM and GFS, it is easy to see that rain across the Midwest and South is still to come. This will likely lead to worsened flooding conditions and overflowing creeks/rivers/waterfalls.

It seems that there is truly no good news with our weather pattern lately, but thankfully there is something on Saturday. Overall, it will be pretty warm as we will reach the upper 60s. However, this comes with a price tag- the chance for storms. This will need to be watched closely over the next few days, as the threat for severe storms is increasing near our region. Stay up to date with the latest!

Summary:

• More rain still to come!
• Be wary on roads prone to flooding
• Severe weather threat this Saturday

I hope everyone is enjoying this sunny, cool day because we have some more rain coming up. We are officially in an El Niño phase but are dealing with more La Niña type precipitation levels. This is likely from another oscillation at play. This system is one that has been on replay throughout the season and is unfortunately going to roll around once again. A nice high pressure system lying to the north of us has helped to give us a sunny sky for today. A low pressure system to the west along with moisture from the south will bring rain later this evening.

That rain will stay in the area until Thursday but it will come around again Thursday night. There is a flood watch in effect from 6 pm tonight until Thursday at 6 am. Please keep an eye out for flooded roadways!

Notice the green line going across lower Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia. Above it temperatures are in the 30s and 40s while below temperatures range from the 60s to 80s. That warm front in the south will rise up to warm us a little.

• SUMMARY:
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 45
    • Low: 38
    • Precipitation: 50% this afternoon rising to 100% tonight
  • Wednesday:
    • High: 57
    • Low: 38
    • Precipitation: 100% all day
  • Thursday:
    • High: 54
    • Low: 37
    • Precipitation: Sunny skies during the day but a 40% of rain towards night

Please stay safe and have a great week!

Happy President’s Day! Lots of rain is expected to sweep across south-central KY this week, so enjoy this dry day as much as you can. To start, a cold front has moved through making temperatures feel a bit cooler than they have been. Todays highs are expected to peak out in the upper 30’s. Moving into the outlook this week, there is a high pressure system sitting in the southeast which will force moisture to feed into our area. The moisture is set to arrive late tomorrow (Tuesday) evening. Based on the set up of the ridge to the southeast, lots of moisture will be funneled in bringing upwards of 2.5 inches Tuesday and Wednesday. Due to the the abundance of rain expected to come, the NWS will likely put out a flood watch and/or similar alerts within the day. As always, we will keep you updated when these alerts are put out.

As you can see, rain is expected to be heavy and consistent overnight Tuesday and throughout Wednesday. Do not rule out the possibility of some thunder embedded in the heavier times of rain, as well. A warm front will arrive tomorrow (reason for the warmer temperatures) bringing in the rain behind it. Another wave of precipitation is expected to hit later in the week bringing more rain, but we will keep you updated on amounts and timing. Even though it is a bit cooler today, enjoy it being dry because that will all change tomorrow night.

FORECAST:

Today (2/18): Partly cloudy and cool.
High: 39
Low: 28
Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly.

Tuesday (2/19): Clouds will increase throughout the day brining rain into the evening. Chance of rain 60%.
High: 59
Low: 40
Tuesday Night: Rain (heavy at times) throughout the night and into most of the day Wednesday. Chance of rain 100%.

It looks as if the chances for rain have returned for our Sunday as a trough is making a pass in the afternoon. The setup below will allow for us to see this rain in action.

Highs for our Sunday will be in the mid-lower 40’s and lows will be in the low 30’s. For our Monday, these showers will pass as the trough has passed.

The map above suggests that the jet stream will form a ridge pattern, which can suppress cloud formation. This also suggests that our Monday will have a chance for sunshine. Monday’s highs will be in the upper 30’s, so it’ll be a bit chilly, and the lows are even colder in the lower 30’s. Tuesday will see a similar story to Monday, but the rains will return at the very end of our forecast period.

Forecast:

Sunday: Showers, High: 44, Low: 32

Monday: Mostly Cloudy, High: 39, Low: 31

Tuesday: Cloudy with rain in the evening, High: 41, Low: 32

A high pressure system centralized in northern Minnesota will allow for us down in Bowling Green to enjoy a temporary reprieve from the wintry mix. Unfortunately, it will be cold for our Saturday, with highs in the upper 30’s and lows in the upper 20’s.

With the continued position of the subtropical jet in the central Pacific Ocean, moisture flow will be constant. For our Sunday, the see-saw will lean more towards the precipitation side.

The map above suggests that our main type of precipitation will be rain for our Sunday, but there is always the chance for a wintry mix. It will warm up a bit, with highs in the upper 40’s, and lows in the mid 30’s. For our Monday, we are looking at the see-saw to move back to a drier side. Highs will be in the low 40’s and lows will be in the lower 30’s. Nevertheless, our weekend will be a cloudy one.

Forecast:

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, High: 39, Low: 29

Sunday: 100% chance of rain, possibly wintry mix, High: 48, Low: 37

Monday: Cloudy, High: 40, Low: 32

The gusty winds that we experienced today will weaken as we head into the overnight hours. A slight forcing mechanism from the approaching storm system could spark off a few showers across the region tonight. Temperatures throughout the area will be well above freezing heading into tomorrow morning with lows bottoming out around 40 degrees. Cold air advection will filter into the area following a weak cold front, keeping tomorrow’s high temperature into the middle 40s. Clouds will stick around throughout the day ahead of our next storm system.

Quick-hitting upper-level shortwave trough will swing through the Ohio River Valley Friday. The National Weather Service out of Louisville, KY issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Warren County as this system could bring the area a quick-hitting round of wintry weather.

High temperatures tomorrow drop off quick as cold air advection noses into the area dropping temperatures around the area to right around the freezing mark. If temperatures drop below freezing, that could lead to a quick changeover from rain to some sort of frozen precipitation. Model guidance hasn’t been consistent on the magnitude of cold air filtering into the region and when that changeover could happen. As we get closer to the event, model guidance should have a good grasp on the amounts of freezing precipitation. As of now, model guidance is spitting out a light glaze to possibly a .10 of an inch of ice.

The wintry precipitation will exit the region before the daylight hours on Saturday morning as high pressure builds to the north. Model guidance is indicating at high temperatures on Saturday staying in the middle 30s with partly sunny skies. Another shortwave will impact the region late Saturday night into Sunday bringing back the chance for light precipitation.

The entire area we continue to be in this active weather pattern heading into next week. For further updates visit the WKU Meteorology Blog and White Squirrel Weather.

Friday: Rain likely after 4pm with otherwise mostly cloudy skies, high temperature in the middle 40s.

Friday night: Rain before 3am, changing over to light freezing rain/mix. Low temperatures right around 30 degrees. Little to no ice accumulation expected.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high right around 40 degrees.

Sunday: Chance of rain throughout the day, high temperature in the low 50s.

What is that bright yellow ball in the sky?

It sure seems like it has been a while since the sun has been visible! Rain has been the story for much of February so far; and some long range models are hinting that the active pattern continues for at least the next week or so.

Models, such as the 12Z GFS shown above, are signaling the potential for another system to impact us this weekend. This far out it’s hard to tell where that rain to ice/snow line will fall- but it is certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few days. With an ongoing active pattern into the latter half of February, there’s a good chance that we could see some more winter weather before the month is over.

Check out that surge of yellows from the south at the beginning of the model run above. That’s a decent warm-up (50’s) for Valentine’s Day, before another cold front passes and it gets cold yet again.

Above, the short range HRRR model illustrates gusty winds of about 30-40mph moving into the area by the early afternoon tomorrow. For those in high profile vehicles, take it slow and safe out there on the highways as these winds could make travel difficult. For those delivering Valentine’s Day flowers, do it in the morning and avoid losing them to the wind!

Summary:

• An active weather pattern continues; chances for wintry precipitation over the next few weeks
• Southerly winds ahead of a cold front bring milder temperatures and strong winds for Valentine’s Day

Well the good news is that the rain is on its way out. The bad, it’s gotten chilly again. We’ve seen it rain all day with quit a few heavy gusts of wind. White Squirrel Weather recorded a gust of 45 mph earlier.

Looking at the surface map, the stationary front that was keeping all that nasty rain around has finally been pushed out of the way. Behind it is the cold front that has today so windy and temperatures dropping.

Satellite also shows most of those clouds being pushed out of the way for a brighter tomorrow.

Thursday is looking to be a nice day for Valentine’s. Towards the night time we do have a 40% of rain.

• SUMMARY:
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 59
    • Low: 30
    • The rain is on its way out but with it comes the cold. Please continue to watch for flooded roadways!
  • Wednesday:
    • High: 48
    • Low: 37
    • Sunny skies!
  • Thursday:
    • High: 56
    • Low:45
    • Happy Valentine’s!! There will be increasing rain chances into the night but overall it should be a pleasant day.

Grab those umbrellas and rain jackets as it will be a wet one for the early portion of this week. As previously described, Bowling Green and the surrounding area is under a Flood Watch. The flood watch is in effect until Tuesday (1/12) at 12 pm. A low pressure system to our west is bringing a large amount of precipitation being fed from the southeastern Pacific. As the low progresses to the east this afternoon and into the evening, it will bring heavier periods of rain.

Rain this evening and overnight is expected to bring an additional 1 to 2 inches for our area. According to the USA Climate Data, Bowling Green typically receives around 4″ of precipitation for the month of February. This means, this afternoon and tonight alone could bring half of the monthly average amounts. Due to the active pattern of the subtropical jet and polar jet, we have received above average amounts of rainfall for the month of February. As you can see below, heavier rain is expected to arrive late tonight and continue into the first half of Tuesday.

If you are looking for the “sunnier side of things” hold on for another couple of days as mid week looks to clear up before the rain once again returns.

FORECAST:

Today (1/11): Rain throughout the day. Chance: 100%.
High: 57
Low: 55
Tonight: Rain continues becoming heavier at times overnight and into the early morning hours. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday (1/12): Heavier showers possibile for the morning commute then a steady rain continuing throughout the day before moving out in the evening.
High: 59
Low: near 30
Side Note: Winds are likely to be pretty strong Tuesday with gusts of 35+ mph possible in the afternoon.