WKU Meteorology

Chilly start this morning and expect little change as highs will only top out near 28 degrees today. Luckily, a high pressure system can be seen moving into our region from the west (below). This will allow for some much needed sun over the next several days. Unfortunately for us today, cold air advection will continue moving in from the northwest following the cold front that brought brief snow showers to our area yesterday. To add to the temperatures, winds could make it feel in the teens this afternoon and tomorrow. Be cautious if you plan to be outdoors for longer periods of time today or tomorrow, as frostbite and hypothermia are real dangers.

As for the next couple of days, expect a similar pattern as today. As described yesterday, zonal flow is dominating our region leaving us “high and dry” for the next few days. Moving to Tuesday, it will remain mostly sunny for the day with high’s slightly warmer near 35 degrees. Winds will pick up more tomorrow, so the dangers of hypothermia and frostbite will stick around for your Tuesday, too.

FORECAST

Today (3/04): Mostly sunny and cold. Winds from the north/northwest can make temperatures feel much colder than they are.
High: 28
Low: 14
Tonight: Mostly clear and cold

Tuesday (3/05): Mostly sunny and cold. Winds could make wind chill values feel in the single digits.
High: 35
Low: 17
Tuesday Night: Clear and cold

For those who left the Bowling Green area for Spring Break, enjoy! For those in Bowling Green, I have some news for you regarding the rains for your Sunday.

The rains will be out of our way in the afternoon, bringing in needed sunshine, but it will be cold. With the jet stream (as seen below) positioned as such, the next few days will be quite uneventful.

Highs for Sunday will be in the mid 30’s and lows will be chilly in the upper 20’s. With the jet stream having a zonal flow, Monday will get to see some sunshine. Highs for Monday will be chilly in the lower 30’s and lows in the lower 20’s. Tuesday could possibly see some clouds with our sunshine, with highs in the lower 30’s and lows in the upper teens. If you’re going to be out for the next few days, be sure to dress appropriately.

Forecast:

Sunday: 50% chance of Snow showers for the day, clearing overnight; High: 38, Low: 26

Monday: Sunshine, Cold; High: 33, Low: 21

Tuesday: Sun and clouds, High: 31, Low: 18

For our early Saturday morning, we currently have some foggy conditions for the Bowling Green area. Please use caution when driving this morning. As with any fog event, it will all clear up later in the morning.

Saturday will be cloudy and uninteresting, with highs in the upper 40’s and lows in the mid-lower 30’s. However, it looks as if we’ll get to see some chances for snow for our Sunday.

Now Sunday will start off cloudy, and then around 9am, we will possibly see a rain/snow mix, and will possibly transition to only snow later in the day. Highs for Sunday will be in the low 40’s and lows will be in the lower 30’s as a cold front passes. With that in mind, it will be a very cold Monday, with highs in the upper 20’s, with lows in the upper teens. It will be a mostly sunny day.

Forecast:

Saturday: Cloudy, with morning fog; High: 49, Low: 36

Sunday: 80% chance for Rain/Snow mix in the morning, Snow in the afternoon, High: 41, Low: 30

Monday: Sunny; very cold, High: 29, Low: 17

Good evening folks!

A weak area of low pressure at the surface is racing from towards the east as we move into the early hours on Friday morning. The light drizzle should come to an end heading into Friday, chillier temps will follow as the Bowling Green will be under a thick blanket of clouds. Low tonight will drop into the middle 30s. Quite a gloomy day will be on tap as we turn the calendar to March(start of Meteorological Spring) as thick cloud cover stays overhead, this will keep our temperatures into the middle 40s. A few patches of light drizzle could perhaps linger around the area during the day.

Another fast moving shortwave trough will move through the region keeping the cloud cover around the area heading into Friday night and Saturday morning. Low temperatures on Friday night will drop back down again into the middle 30s. Clouds will stick around for Saturday but some areas could experience a few peaks of sunshine throughout the day, highs will rebound a little bit approaching the 50 degrees.

An active pattern will setup across the region during the Sunday and Monday time frame as a quick moving mid-level disturbance moves through the Ohio River Valley. This mid-level disturbance is forecasted to strengthen and develop a surface that will move quickly through the southeast. A large fetch of moisture will be present as southerly flows moves up from the south combined with increasing synoptic scale lift will result in a broad area of precipitation.

Model guidance continues to push for mostly rain for the Bowling Green area, but as we move into the Sunday time frame we could see a some light snow showers.

Cold air is forecasted to settle into the region next week as a large area of high pressure settles in from the north. Tune into White Squirrel Weather and the WKU Meteorology blog for further updates.

Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy, with a low around 35.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52, calm winds.

Much like the Weezer song, we have felt like an island in the sun for the last couple of days. A much needed relief from the cold and rain. Right now Bowling Green is sitting in second place for its wettest February with 11.08″. It is only being beat out by 1989 with 11.27″. Even with rain potentials Thursday, it doesn’t look like we’ll have enough to break the record. For now we’ll just have to enjoy our little island in the sun.

Taking a look at the surface map, a stationary front is lying on top of us. It along with southerly winds, and a high pressure center that was over us Tuesday helped provide some warm, dry air.

Heading into late Wednesday night there is a small chance for rain, but it should miss the area if it comes down at all. Overall it will be very similar to today. In fact, it should be warmer!

Unfortunately Thursday is where things turn ugly!

The Wednesday evening surface forecast shows a cold front that will go across the area Thursday bringing with it some rain. Temperatures will drop to the low 50s so make sure to have a jacket with you! The rain associated with the system will drop around a tenth of an inch, which again wont get us past that record.

• SUMMARY:
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 61
    • Low: 38
    • Enjoy the sun!
  • Wednesday:
    • High: 65
    • Low: 41
    • Our last sunny, warm day for a bit so go out and enjoy it!
  • Thursday:
    • High: 53
    • Low: 42
    • A 50% chance of rain Thursday and Thursday evening.

Have a good week and stay safe!

With the cold front passing through from our latest system this past weekend, temperatures are a bit cooler today with high’s expected to top out in the upper 40’s. On the bright side, a high pressure system is sitting to the north of the Dakota’s and stretched down into the southeastern portion of the US. The result gives us plenty of sunshine for Monday and Tuesday.

A flood warning issued by the NWS is still in effect until 7:20 pm tonight. This is mainly due to flooding from the Green and Barren rivers, so residents in these areas please use caution. Lots of sun, the lack of rain in the next couple of days, and warmer temperatures arriving Tuesday/Wednesday will allow for water to recede in flooded regions and for areas to begin drying out. Enjoy some much needed sun over the next couple of days before the chance of some showers returns later in the week.

FORECAST

Today (2/25): Sunny and a bit cooler
High: near 47
Low: around 30
Tonight: Mainly clear

Tuesday (2/26): Mostly sunny with warmer temperatures
High: 58
Low: 38
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy overnight

To recap yesterday’s severe weather event, there were four tornadoes that touched down, with one in Columbus, Mississippi, that had one confirmed kill.

For most of Kentucky, however, it is cloudy now, and currently much colder than yesterday with the passage of the cold front.

The high for our Sunday was in the lower 60’s, but since the cold front pass, we won’t get to feel such temperatures throughout the day. The lows for Sunday will drop to the mid 30’s. Monday is even colder, with highs in the mid 40’s and lows in the upper 20’s.

Tuesday, however, will see some increasing cloudiness as the day progresses, with highs in the mid 50’s and lows in the lower 30’s.

Forecast:

Sunday: Cloudy in the morning, sunshine for the afternoon, High: 60, Low: 33

Monday: Colder, but still partly cloudy, High: 49, Low: 28

Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness, High: 57, Low: 34

Current:

Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from midnight CST Saturday through late Saturday night. The next system looks to bring widespread rain this evening through Saturday as well as a potent cold front that could bring the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday evening.

Severe Weather Potential:

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed our region under a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow. This means that scattered severe storms are possible. Storms are expected to be short-lived, not widespread, but some isolated intense storms are possible. The main threats associated with this storm system is: heavy rain, locally damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out completely.

Set-Up:

A low pressure system with associated warm and cold fronts is expected to move into the Great Lakes by Saturday evening. The warm front will slowly lift northward through the early morning hours on Saturday bringing more rain, heavy at times, to the region.

A break in the rain looks to occur late morning to early afternoon before the first round of storms start to move in around early afternoon. Some models have been more bullish with the instability and some have limited the instability till later on in the evening ahead of the cold front. What exactly will play out remains to be seen, and will be monitored closely through the afternoon hours.

The greatest chance for severe weather looks to be ahead of the approaching cold front Saturday evening. The storms then organize into a broken line ahead of the front and start to press into the region around 6-9 PM time frame. The timing could change depending on a variety of factors but again, this will be closely monitored throughout the day tomorrow. The main threats from this system will again be heavy rain, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes due to the strong vertical wind shear (change of wind direction or speed with height) present over the area. The activity should be out of the region by the early morning hours on Sunday.

Forecast:

Tonight – Shower activity increasing through the overnight hours with periods of heavy rain possible. Lows should fall into the mid 40s.

Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs should reach into the mid 60s with wind gusts in the upper 20s possible at times.

Saturday night – Showers and thunderstorms likely, some storms could be strong to severe. Heavy rain at times with winds gusts in the upper 20s possible. Lows fall into the mid 40s.

Stay weather aware tomorrow and have a way to receive watches and warnings should they be issued. You can also follow these social media accounts for the latest weather information: @wkustormteam @WKUWeather on Twitter and WKU Storm Team on Facebook. Stay Safe!

Short Term Outlook (Thursday – Friday)

A weak area of high pressure at the surface accompanied by upper-level shortwave ridging will keep the Bowling Green area dry for the rest of Thursday. High temperatures today will top out around the 50 degree mark accompanied with mostly cloudy skies. Cloud coverage will be on the increase heading into tonight as a weak disturbance moves in from the west. Shower chances will increase also as this weak storm system races across the region.

Southwest anticyclonic flow at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will increase as a persistent area of high pressure continues to build over the Bahamas/Caribbean. This will enhance the transport of moisture at the lower levels of the atmosphere, increasing the shower chances throughout the day on Friday. Rainfall totals on Friday will be on the lighter side with rainfall amounts in between .50-.75 inches.

Long Term Outlook (Friday Night-Sunday)

As we head into Friday night waves of moderate to heavy rain will move through the area associated with an approaching warm front moving in from the south. Temperatures on Friday night will hover right around 50 degrees. The approaching warm front is associated with a developing area of low pressure over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. By sunrise on Saturday, the warm front will be over the area, accompanied with moderate to heavy rain showers. By the midday hours on Saturday, The area of low pressure over the Southern Plains will begin to rapidly develop and move northeastward into the Mississippi River Valley.

The low-level flow behind the warm front will provide ample moisture for some of the energy from the approaching low pressure to tap into. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will be expected throughout the early morning and mid-morning hours on Saturday. The rain is expected to lift north of the area during the afternoon hours allowing temperatures to rise into the middle 60s. Even though there is small break from the rain during the afternoon hours on Saturday, cloud cover will be dominant still, inhibiting the rise in temperatures a little bit.

As the area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region late on Saturday, it will drag a cold front through the area. A squall line (long line of thunderstorms, with embedded severe thunderstorms) will likely accompany the cold front as it moves through. Strong-to-damaging winds and very heavy rain will be the dominant impact from this line of thunderstorms, but you can’t rule out a quick spin-up as these storms will have ample wind shear to work with. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has the Bowling Green area highlighted under and ENHANCED risk for severe weather, a 3 out-of 5 on the Categorical Outlook Legend.

Strong winds out of the west will dominate the area heading into Sunday as the cold front departs the region late on Saturday or early Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday will reach the middle 50s with mostly sunny skies. High pressure will move in from the west heading into the beginning part of the work week on Monday, giving the area a chance to dry out after an active week of rain. This upcoming storm system is still over the southwestern part of the US, so details about the rainfall amounts and severe weather impacts could change.

For further updates on the potential for severe weather and heavy rain this weekend, keep up to date with White Squirrel Weather and the WKU Meteorology Blog.

Tonight: Showers. Low around 40. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Precipitation amounts between 0.25-0.50 inches.

Friday: Showers. High in the low 50s. East wind 7 to 10 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: Showers, with thunderstorms also possible in the evening. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 48. East wind 6 to 8 mph. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Saturday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain and be strong/severe. High near 68. South wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with a high in the middle 50s.