While the conditions for our Saturday are starting to reflect a spring-like atmosphere, the temperatures are not. We are currently having temperatures in the thirties.
Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)
With a high pressure field centered over in Oklahoma, the next few days will be more uneventful compared to Thursday. Today will be quite sunny,with highs in the mid-upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s. Sunday could see minimal clouds, with highs in the mid-upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s. Monday will be sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s.
Forecast
Saturday: Sunny, High: 57, Low:34
Sunday: Fair, High: 56, Low: 33
Monday: Sunny, High: 55, Low: 32
Posted inKentucky Weather|Comments Off on Sunshine for Saturday and Sunday?
If you’re still here (you didn’t get blown away from the incredible winds we had over the past 2 days) then I have some good news for you all. The forecast looks full of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.
Synopsis:
High pressure will be the dominant weather maker over the next few days as it remains anchored over the region. This will suppress any development of rain or cloud activity for at least the weekend. A weak clipper system will swing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday but most of the showers should stay well north of South Central KY. After that, the next best chance of rain looks to arrive around the Wednesday night-Thursday timeline. We don’t expect to pick up much in the way of rainfall, however, and the sunshine will certainly return by the afternoon hours on Thursday.
Saturday morning 7 AM CDTSunday morning 7 AM CDT
South Central KY Forecast:
Tonight- Mostly clear with lows hovering right around around 30
Saturday- Plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 50s
Saturday Evening- Skies stay clear with lows dipping back into the 30s
Looks like for now at least we avoided the terrible Ides of March. Enjoy the sunshine, soak up some Vitamin D over the next couple of days, and have a safe and fun-filled weekend!
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***The Tornado Watch that was issued for our area has expired as of 4:00 CDT***
The rest of this evening will be quite gusty with a Wind Advisory in effect until 10:00 PM CDT. Winds will be sustained at around 25 mph with gusts as high as 40-50 mph.
Quiet weather will settle into the area as the area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and into Southern Ontario, simultaneously, high pressure will begin to settle in from the west. For the rest of this evening, temperatures will begin to drop with winds coming in from the NW ushering much cooler and drier air.
Figure 2: NAM 2m Dewpoint (F): 03Z Fri March 15, 2019
The start of the day on Friday will be a tad chilly with clear skies, temperatures rebound back to around 50 degrees in the afternoon with an increase in cloud coverage. Temperatures on Friday night will drop down to around the freezing mark, would not be surprised if most locations around the area will wake up to some morning frost on Saturday.
Figure 3: NAM 2m Temp (F): 12Z Sat March 16, 2019
Medium to long range model guidance are indicating a mild weather pattern setting up across the region heading into next week and next weekend (Next weekend is along ways out, so things could change).
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Friday: Clear to start off the day with increasing clouds throughout the afternoon hours, with a high near 50. West wind 10 to 14 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 50. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.
***FOR FURTHER UPDATES, VISIT WHITE SQUIRREL WEATHER & THE WKU METEOROLOGY BLOG***
Posted inKentucky Weather|Comments Off on Gusty Winds this Evening, With a Cool But Pleasant Forecast for the Upcoming Weekend.
Let’s start with incredible satellite imagery of the 3/13/19 Great Plains blizzard (or “Bomb Cyclone”, as you may have heard about in the news) currently over the United States:
With blizzard conditions stretching from Colorado to North Dakota, this storm is a beast! But what does this mean for Kentucky?
HRRR Wind Gusts
Hold on to your hats! Expect it to get pretty gusty at times. The HRRR (high resolution, short range weather model) is showing wind gusts in the 40-50 mph neighborhood for most of the day tomorrow. Combined with rain, this could lead to some downed trees across the area- be wary of this.
HRRR Simulated Reflectivity
There is also a shot at some severe weather for our area. As the HRRR model illustrates above, the potential for a line of storms (or even isolated storms!) capable of producing severe weather is there. This could occur anytime in the early to late afternoon. This set up, however, is interesting because it comes with a potential flaw:
NAM Cloud Cover
There are two distinct possibilities for tomorrow’s weather. The first would be something like the model depicted above, where clouds and rain hold on through most of the morning and early afternoon. In this scenario, it is not likely we would experience much in the way of severe weather. The second possibility is for less rain and clouds- meaning more clearing for the sun to heat the Earth’s surface. In this scenario, the chance for severe weather in our area rises.
Besides staying up to date with our blog, keep your eye on the sky tomorrow- and follow the NWS as well as your local TV meteorologists for the latest!
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Good morning everyone! Hopefully Spring Break went well for all students, and the time change is not hitting everyone too hard.
We have a high pressure system over the region that is helping to give us a nice start to the week. To the south there is some rain but that won’t reach us. Some more clouds will move into the area later on. Our next system is currently is Southern California dropping rain on them as well as some snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. This low pressure system will make its way into the area Wednesday night where we’ll start to see some rain. Thursday will be rainy as well with the potential for Thunderstorms. There could be some flash flooding associated with all the rain so be careful on the roadways. Make sure if the road is flooded to turn around.
Today’s Surface Map with the high pressure in our area and the low out west.
The other big concern, along with the rain, is the wind for Wednesday and Thursday. Models are showing winds 25-30 mph for Wednesday and especially Thursday. This will make for driving lighter cars more difficult so again be careful the next couple of days. While an umbrella may be needed for the rain Thursday, the winds could make it very difficult to use.
Anything severe looks to remain to the south of Kentucky. Just keep an eye out for the rain and heavy winds. Thankfully temperatures will remain nice for the next couple of days. The highest temperature for March so far of 72° will be seen for Thursday.
SUMMARY:
Tuesday:
High: 61
Low: 46
Wednesday:
High: 69
Low: 59
Strong winds will come into the area. Rain will make its way into the area towards night.
Thursday:
High: 72
Low: 43
Rain and possible thunderstorms will come down all day before clearing for Friday. Strong winds will continue to be a problem Thursday.
Have a fun, safe week everyone!
Posted inKentucky Weather|Comments Off on Warm Midweek Turns Rainy Thursday
As seen from GOES-16 (below), mostly cloudy skies are dominating right now as there is some light rain to our south (in the Nashville area). Expect this rain to remain to our south and move out by early this afternoon. This will allow for some sun to break through the clouds and bring some needed sunshine.
GOES-16 Visible/ Shortwave IR
As for the next few days, expect Bowling Green to stay dry until mid week (Wednesday night), when our next rain event moves in. A high pressure system is making its way down from northern Iowa and will end up in the Ohio valley by tomorrow morning. Expect clouds to decrease as we move through the day today, leaving mostly clear skies tonight. With a high pressure system set to be in place tomorrow, we can enjoy mostly sunny skies and high’s in the upper 50’s. Enjoy the mild temperatures and sunny skies the first half of the week before rain and colder temperatures find their way back into south central Kentucky.
FORECAST
Today (3/11): Mostly cloudy now with clouds decreasing as the day carries on. By the afternoon we will have partly cloudy skies High: 56 Low: 34 Tonight: Mostly clear
Our weekend is going to reach a cloudy conclusion for our Sunday. With the cold front’s passing, highs for us will be a bit cooler in the mid-upper 50’s, and the lows in the lower 40’s.
13Z SFC Observations (Source: College of DuPage)
With a strong high pressure system over Kansas, today and tomorrow will be quite uneventful for the mid-South; however, that doesn’t mean we will see any considerable sunshine. Monday will also see some considerable cloudiness, with highs in low 50’s, and lows in the lower 40’s. Tuesday might see some cloudiness as well, with highs in the upper 50’s, and lows in the upper 30’s.
Now it may be a bit chilly for severe weather right now, but a warm front will pass through as seen below, giving us a more ideal set up for severe weather.
13Z Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)
With considerable warming for the mid-South, those down in Bowling Green are looking at a slight risk for severe weather, along with central Tennessee. Western Tennessee is looking at an enhanced risk for severe weather, along with Northern Mississippi and places in Arkansas and Missouri. For more information regarding these risks, see this website.
Day 1 Convective Outlook (Source: SPC)
Even as I type this out, severe weather is making its way through Arkansas. Below is a simulation of the reflectivity one might encounter in the areas that have been marked as an enhanced severe weather area.
12Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)
The map above indicates that any severe weather will be structured as a squall line, which is stimulated by a front, usually a cold front. It will be a bit cooler when the storms pass through the area. As with any severe weather day, there is always a lookout for tornadoes.
12Z HRRR Significant Tornado Parameter (fixed layer) (Source: College of DuPage)
The above map outlines environments that are conducive to tornadoes. As such, they can be seen in Western Tennessee and Mississippi. May I ask that you please heed the warnings that the National Weather Service in your area issues. With all of that said, highs for the Bowling Green area will be in the mid-upper 60’s, and lows in the mid 30’s for Saturday. Despite some clearing for the early morning, Sunday will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 40’s. Monday is also cloudy, with highs in the mid 50’s, and lows in the lower 40’s. Before you go to bed on Saturday, you must know that you will lose an hour of sleep. Daylight Savings Time will return tomorrow.
It sure was a chilly start to the day today- we woke up to a balmy 18 degrees and clear skies. It should warm up some by the weekend (relatively speaking, however) at the expense of additional rain. For an area that has already received an abundance of rain in the past month, this isn’t great news. Flooding could be a concern again, mainly in the areas we have already seen have issues.
The run of the GFS above shows two shots of rain by the weekend, one Friday and the other on Saturday. This system moving in on Saturday is one to keep an eye on, however, for severe storm potential. As we transition to Spring and practice tornado safety with the tornado drills we had across the state earlier today, this system seemingly comes right on time! In a few days, we can narrow down the specifics- but the chance for severe weather in the Ohio valley and south seems legit for this weekend.
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook
Here is the NWS SPC’s Day 4-8 outlook for severe weather. Day 4 being Saturday, they highlight a large region across the Midwest and South to show the potential for bad weather. This is something to monitor as Saturday draws closer, especially if you have any Spring Break travel plans across the area. Stay up to date with our blog for more on the severe threat this weekend!
Posted inKentucky Weather|Comments Off on Unsettled Weather Returns
Honestly as cold as Bowling Green was today, I am jealous! Bowling Green got to see a high of 34° while Louisville’s high was 28°. Currently it’s 34° (feels like 24°) in Bowling Green while Louisville it is 26° (feels like 14°). Thank goodness temperatures will get warmer as we push through the week.
Today’s Surface
A high pressure system is laying in the center of the continental US that will makes its way into our area tomorrow and leave out Thursday night. There’s not much going on weatherwise for today through Thursday other than the gradual increase in temperature. There is a chance for rain Thursday night as a front sweeps through the area.
Wednesday’s Surface OutlookThursday’s Surface Outlook
SUMMARY:
Tuesday:
High: 34°
Low: 15°
Try not to freeze!
Wednesday:
High: 36°
Low: 24°
Thursday:
High: 48°
Low: 35°
Rain chances are possible Thursday night.
I hope everyone has a fun, safe spring break!
Posted inKentucky Weather|Comments Off on Not Exactly Spring Break Weather!
