WKU Meteorology

Greetings

I am sure everyone notice that temperature drop that happened in the evening into the night time.  The cold front that is currently in Mid-Atlantic came through the area yesterday evening. Expect the rest of today to to stay dry, but the clouds to stay and  the cold air behind the front make the temperature barely get over the 50s.

There is a trend in the models indicating a short wave passing through this afternoon to spark a slight chance of isolated showers in the early evening hours. The NAM and the GFS are not agreeing about the slight rain chance this evening.

Saturday looks to be a beautiful day with a high pressure ridging axis going northwest will bring some warmer weather with the highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s through-out the area. However, Sunday into Sunday night looks to be wet again. As a low pressure coming from the west bringing a chance of rain to us Sunday afternoon. GFS 06Z is putting the rain here at 21z, 4 pm Central time.

Forecast:

Friday: 54/38 with a slight chance of rain this afternoon

Saturday: 61/47

Sunday: 66/50 with a chance of rain

Good evening folks!!

The rain from earlier today associated with an area of low pressure has moved on out of here. Cloudy skies will remain over the area for the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Winds that are currently out of the S and SW will shift thanks to a cold front that will slowly drift eastward. Temperatures behind the front will drop into the 40s throughout the area with winds out of the NW at 15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph. Low temperatures for tonight will drop to around 44° in the Bowling Green area.

Below: IDV Surface Temperature 11-02-18 12z

Heading into Friday, scattered showers will linger around the area as the area of low pressure continues to move off towards the northeast. As it moves towards the northeast, it will drag a weak frontal boundary or a weak axis of convergence that will hover across the Ohio River Valley. This area of convergence could spark off some scattered showers and drizzle across the area. Highs across the area should remain right around 50° thanks to winds out of the WNW and extensive cloud cover.

Below: IDV Surface Temperatures & Winds 11-02-18 18z

Slight chance of showers will remain around the area heading into Friday night with lows dropping to around 40°. Temperatures for the first half of the weekend on Saturday will rebound thanks to a weak area of high pressure building in from the west. High temperatures on Saturday should top out around 60°.

Forecast

Thursday night: Slight chance of rain mainly before midnight with a low of 44°. West wind at 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Slight chance of showers with some scattered drizzle. Cloudy, high temperature topping out around 51°. Northwest wind at 5-10 mph.

Friday Night: Slight chance of showers before midnight. Cloudy, low temperature of 40°. Light and variable winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny skies, with a high of 62°. Winds out of the south at around 5 mph.

Happy Halloween!!

Thankfully, treat-or-treating is a go for much of the Bowling Green area and beyond!  The focus of the heavy rain shifts further towards our north and west, as bands have already been moving through that area over the past few hours.  I even managed to snag a few photos of a shelf cloud moving through parts of Kentucky that were peaking with fall colors earlier:

But what does this next system have in store for us?

The WPC keeps us near the edge of a slight risk for excessive rainfall.  The rain bands that move through will be quite narrow, meaning the heavy rain stays over a relatively small area.  Latest models are beginning to hint at Bowling Green missing the brunt of it by miles:

That doesn’t, however, mean we won’t see a good bit of rain through tonight and tomorrow as this other model run illustrates:

With that in mind, keep those rain jackets on hand- especially tomorrow.  The system should clear out by tomorrow evening, leaving only some small lingering showers Friday and into your weekend.

Tonight: Breezy, rain showers.  Low of 63

Tomorrow:  High of 67, shower and storms.

Tomorrow night: Low of 45, showers clearing

Good afternoon WKU!

Today’s weather is one that will make your plans enjoyable if you’re going outdoors. Although, if your looking for Halloween’s weather to be like this one, then I can’t make any promises. However, I can say that heavier rain will hold off until Thursday morning. Halloween evening will most likely conclude with light rain showers.

Tuesday morning started off slightly cool with a morning low of 38°F. However, a nice warm gradient throughout the day makes our weather pleasant. Currently temperatures are 69°F in Bowling Green, Ky and mostly sunny skies. Thanks to our fair weather maker, a high pressure associated with an upper level ridge creates clear skies and mild temperatures for Tuesday. Model Output Statistics (MOS), a tactic for interpreting numerical model data output shows a slight variation in temperatures. GFS mod. guidance is more accurate than the NAM, focusing on the highs being predicted to reach up to 75°F. Due to some windy conditions though, highs will reach to about 72°F.

Temperatures for TUES will be above average because of a slight heat index from an oncoming warm front from the MS Valley. Winds up to 20 mph from the south keeps conditions a little drafty but pleasant compared to a northern breeze. A build-up of moisture and as a result, instability will cause warmer dew points and more fall-like weather. Is this beautiful weather bound to continue??? How will Halloween be???

1500Z Surface Analysis (11:30am) showing the weather features for a small-scale observation of 12 hours. Observe how due to the warm front in the SW temps were already in the upper 60’s and low 70’s in parts of the South. As the new trough swoops through the Great Plains associated with a low pressure system we will start seeing clouds and rain chances for Wednesday.

Halloween, is set to be mild like Buffalo wings as well, effectively from that warm front to our SW. Even with scattered clouds increasing to overcasting skies by the late afternoon, temperatures will be sure to surpass 70°F for the maximum temperature. Depending on the amount of cloud cover during the day, WKU could reach middle-values due to humidity. Dew points are to be in the low tier of 60°F making the weather a bit more muggy. Wind shear from our south will push northeast-ward into the Mid-South, associated with that moisture factor, but will oppressively battle with a cold sector in the Midwest.

Additionally, this format brings in the scenario of conveyor belts towards which the warm air lifting parallel ahead of the cold front that is moving at a more rapid pace. In fact, a warm conveyor belt will bring in light rain for Halloween evening. Don’t be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder due to the amount of instability and the approaching of the cold-sector. As the moisture from the south counteracts the cold front, heavier rain chances will be possible for Thursday morning into the afternoon. OH BOY!

TUESDAY:

72°F/38°F; Mostly sunny but clouds will be few in number as the day concludes. Winds pick up to about 20 mph throughout the day (SSW). Beautiful weather maker today so go enjoy it!!!

WEDNSDAY:

74°F/60°F; Scattered clouds progressively into overcast skies by late PM. Lght rain chances 30% during the day but increase to 60% in the evening, accumulation estimated to be trace (0.01″). A thunderstorm possible (30%) around 1-4pm.

THURSDAY:

65°F/56°F; Cloudy skies and chances for heavy rain in the morning and afternoon hours (>70% chance). Rain values will vary but will be abundant for after 10am (1.0″<rain<2.0″). BE SURE TO GRAB AN UMBRELLA!

After a week of pomping, midterms, difficult homework assignments, cheering on the Tops, and a lot of costume and candy shopping, the end of the Homecoming activities was welcomed with open arms. Just to put it into perspective, many WKU students slept most of Sunday away, with reports of students sleeping for 16 hours straight! And if that rest wasn’t enough to get people ready for another work/school week, maybe today’s magnificent Monday weather put smiles on their faces. But one day just isn’t enough, so let’s see what the next few days will bring us.

Tuesday will be nice and warm with mostly clear skies. Highs will be in the mid 70’s. This is the perfect type of day to shed the sweatshirt and start raking those big, orange leaves from the maple trees that are prevalent throughout Bowling Green. If you’re a student, it will be a great day to Eno under the cherry trees or play a little ultimate frisbee on South Lawn. Just don’t miss out on tomorrow’s great conditions because they will change quickly as Wednesday rolls around.

Yes, Halloween Wednesday will be a little less spooky and a little more soggy. As the kiddos (or 20 year olds) head out to trick-or-treat, rain will be moving in ahead of a cold front.  While the front itself will pass through around noon Thursday, the rain chances will begin around dinnertime on Halloween. With the wet weather in mind, make sure to adjust your plans accordingly.

Depiction of rainfall from Wednesday into Thursday from the 0Z NAM – Courtesy Pivotal Weather.

0Z GFS showing center of low pressure system moving directly over South Central KY. Temp and wind change mid-afternoon Thursday. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Southerly flow will keep our temps in the 60’s all night long Wednesday into Thursday, so our high temperature Thursday will actually come during the morning hours just before the front passes through. As the front moves off to the East, temperatures will drop into the 40’s by mid-afternoon and stay there for the rest of the day. The umbrella will be a necessity Thursday since this will be an all-day rain event.

When all is said and done by Friday, portions of South Central Kentucky could see total rainfall amounts of a couple inches or more.

Tuesday: high of 74, mostly clear skies. Enjoy it while you can!

Wednesday: high of 70, rain starting during the evening hours and continuing throughout the night.

Thursday: Continuous moderate rainfall, high of 64 around midnight with temps dropping into the low 40’s throughout the day. Winds shifting from South to North by the end of the day.

Good day everyone!

With winds coming from the southwest, we are experiencing some warmer weather today. There is a wind advisory out due to gusts with the potential of 35 mph. There is a clipper centered just below the Great Lakes moving southeast. It will pass through Kentucky sometime this afternoon or early tonight. Some rain is already being seen in some parts of the state including the Bowling Green area.

Surface Observation

After the clipper makes its way out of the area, a high pressure system will enter the area leading to cooler weather for Monday. There will be a few clouds in the sky especially Tuesday as a cold front

Greetings!

This Friday looks to be a wet one! It also looks to stay wet through out the day. With the  Jet stream deeding  south, causing lift. As the day progress an upper level low will come across the area, but the lower levels will still stay moisturized. Making the rain a little more scattered , but still a high chance. At night time hours, the upper-level low will move east out of the area, however, the low level moisture will still remain leaving a chance for a drizzle. With the high of mid 50s and the low in the upper 40s. The rain and clouds will make the temperature max and min stay relatively close.

For Saturday, the clouds remain all day, but only a little chance of rain. As of right now. according to the GFS 06z run the clouds start to clear out of the area around late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Saturday is also looking to be a cooler day with the high in the upper 50s and lows in the lower 40s. But with the winds coming from the south west on Sunday, the tempertures will increase to lower 70s with lows to the lower 40s. A with the clouds and moisture gone the max and min temperate can vary greater.

Summary:

Friday: 53/46 with a high chance of rain throughout the day

Saturday: 56/43 with a low chance of rain, but cloudy

Sunday: 70/44 Decreasing clouds as the day goes on

Good evening Folks!!

Scattered showers have began across the region this evening, thanks to a low-level jet pumping in moisture from the southwest. Rain chances will continue to be on the increase into the overnight hours, expect ample cloud cover to start off the day on Friday. Overnight lows will dip down to around 50 degrees. As for tomorrow, expect periodic chances of rain throughout the day as the axis of an upper level trough moves through the Ohio River Valley. If you plan on heading out to the Western Kentucky homecoming parade, make sure to have an umbrella or rain coat in hand. Highs for your Friday will top out in the middle 50s.

Below: Fri 2018-10-26 16z 2m AGL Temperature

Rain chances and extensive cloud cover will continue into Friday night thanks to a long-wave trough stretching from the Midwest to the Gulf of Mexico with a few shortwaves riding along the main trough. The rain chances overnight will cause the overnight lows to drop a few degrees into the lower 50s. Rain chances will back off a little bit heading into Saturday just in time for WKU’s homecoming football game. Skies will stay on the cloudy side for most of the day with highs topping out around 55 degrees.

Below: WKU Alumni Association

Forecast:

Friday: Scattered showers throughout the day with otherwise cloudy skies, high temperature around 54 degrees, rainfall totals between a tenth and a quarter inch.

Friday Night: Showers likely before midnight, low temperature of 45 degrees.

Saturday: Slight chance of showers with otherwise mostly cloudy skies, high temperature of 56 degrees.

GO TOPS!!