WKU Meteorology

Good afternoon WKU!

Happy Homecoming Week! The first thing on your mind concerning the weather is I’m sure about concerns with how cold it will be. Monday started out quite bitter with a Freeze Advisory due to a minimum temperature of 33°F… one degree shy of freezing! However, good news for Tuesday is that temperatures are going to be milder with highs in the upper 60°F this afternoon. Due to a low leveled trough in the northeast region, results in accommodating a backside ridge structure for areas in the Mid-South. This area of pressure rises will really be efficient at unlocking an abundance of sunshine for the Mid-South region throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. The downstream effects from the north packs on some light winds associated with a cold front. As a result, cooler conditions, this boundary will ensure a fall-like breeze for the rest of your Tuesday. As that trough veers its way down into the Midwest and across the Great Lakes, upper-air heights will be gradually lower. Convergence picks up from the jet stream altering low temperatures and will develop into the northeast later in the week possibly as a heavy-hitting nor’easter. For the Mid-South, minimum temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be frigid in the upper 30’s/low 40’s. Considering that cold front moves through, temperatures for Wednesday will be slightly cooler than the start of this week. Highs looking to be upper 50’s/low 60’s for the next few days.

Conversely, this systematic high pressure is sure to deteriorate in a couple days and the next topic of discussion is the moisture factor headed our way out of the southwest. The Atlantic Ocean has been well in the news with multiple hurricanes forming but the Pacific has been doing some work as well. Hurricane Willa has been forming along the Mexico border with some prevailing winds and width that has since weakened. Clouds will be on the increase for Thursday and Friday as that incoming moisture from the southwest increases dew point factors. This relationship will seem to alter your plans for the Homecoming Parade Friday evening.

Here is a recent report from NOAA NWS (12:40 CDT):

“Although Willa has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane, it is still forecast to make landfall in Mexico today. Remnants of Willa will bring significant rainfall across a swath of the southern United States from southeast Texas through southern Georgia. Portions of the Florida Panhandle affected by Hurricane Michael are of particular concern as they’re expected to pick up a few inches of rain through Friday.”

Hurricane track and elements of Hurricane Willa and it’s behavior courtesy of WPC

While Willa will create heavy rain and flooding in the Southwest U.S., surges of this storm could reach the Mid-South region by Friday evening. Below is a Weather Storm Prediction model courtesy of NOAA NWS displaying the quantitative precipitation forecast for day 2 and day 3. On the left is valid for Wednesday, displaying that the conditions are going to be dry for tomorrow in the Mid-South. However, not so much for the transition into Thursday as that moisture shift takes place Thursday evening into Friday morning from Willa.

Tuesday: 68/37 Mostly Clear skies due to high pressure and light winds from the NNW. Fall-like breezes with speeds up to 10 mph and dew points in the low 30’s makes temperatures frigid.

Wednesday: 61/38 Cold front affects the condition of temperatures but mostly sunny skies warms us up. Slight winds about 5 mph from the north. Dew points in the 30’s making the nights cooler from a lack of absorption.

Thursday: 59/40 Partly cloudy with clouds increasing. Moisture from Willa and fast paced winds up to 15 mph will flare up some cloud cover. Dew points will juice up to upper 40’s.

Get ready to pomp with your hands, stomp with your feet, and yell with your mouth that Dear Old Western can’t be beat!… actually, we’re 1-6 this season, so we get beat a lot. But enough about sports, let’s talk weather.

What a change since October 1st. We started off this month with 10 straight days of high temps of 84 or higher. One of those days it hit 90. We started off this morning just 1 degree above freezing. Woah! Just like Spring, Fall is a wacky time of year that can bring all sorts of changes in weather. This is caused by Earth’s tilt and how it revolves around the Sun, which combine to create changes in differential heating between the Equator and North Pole. Basically, when the sun warms up one area (the Equator) more than another (the North Pole), the atmosphere really starts moving and churning, so it can create a balance in temperature and pressure across the Northern Hemisphere. This causes an increase in severe weather events and bigger temperature changes at the surface as warm and cold fronts move across the country.

Over the first half of the week, we won’t be seeing much in the way of changing weather. High pressure in place will keep around the cool morning starts and provide plenty of sunshine Monday through Wednesday.

12Z NAM GIF showing cloud cover Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. -Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

If you are a fan of meteor showers, tonight is the night to go out and do so. Yes, the Orionid meteor shower technically peaked last night, but tonight’s leftovers will still be worth watching. The only thing impeding visibility tonight is the presence of the nearly full moon. As seen in the GIF above, clouds will primarily remain south of the state line all night long. Low temps will be hard-pressed to make it below 40 even with clear skies due to the dewpoint temps in the upper 30s. So, grab a couple of blankets and some friends and marvel at creation tonight.

Tuesday will be even warmer than today as temps move into the mid-upper 60s. All in all, another nice Fall day.

12Z GFS depicting temps in the mid 50s and winds of 10-15mph throughout SOKY at 1pm Wednesday. -Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Wednesday, prepare your mind, your body, and your wardrobe for Homecoming Games 2018 at the Colonnade, 3pm. With a high in the upper 50s, it’s not a bad idea to wrap a blanket around your shoulders as you cheer on your favorite Greek organization.

Today: As of noon, it was already 59°F and will continue to get warmer. High of 65 with a few passing clouds, but primarily very sunny.

Tonight: Low of 41 with light winds and clear skies.

Tuesday: Sunny and a little warmer with a high of 68.

Wednesday: starting off in the low-mid 30s, high in the upper 50s with a briskness to it. Winds will pick up to 10-15mph by the mid-afternoon hours.

While this week will be extremely busy with Homecoming preparations, competitions, and other activities, the only thing you have to worry about weatherwise for the next 3 days is picking the right sweatshirt or flannel to wear each day. Don’t forget to keep tuning in this week to see if it will be dry for our big weekend plans.

Yesterday started off very nice with temperatures topping at 66. Soon we felt the cold though as a cold front came through last night. I imagine many of you all felt the winds as they picked up. We even had a peak wind gust of 33 mph! From this cold front we will have cooler temperatures today. Temperatures will hit freezing tonight. The National Weather Service office in Louisville has issued a freeze warning from 1:00 am October 22 to 8:00 am October 22. Please be sure to cover any sensitive plants or bring them inside if possible. Thankfully we have a chain of high pressure systems coming from the west so we should see clear, sunny skies for the next few days.

Surface Observations

Satellite Imagery

Overall, temperatures do not look to get above the low 60s. Another cold front will makes its way across the area Tuesday bringing with it cooler temperatures for Wednesday and winds. Thankfully the winds will be much calmer than those yesterday. Behind that cold front will be another high pressure system to center on the Great Lakes region. This will help keep cool temperatures around for us.

You can see as winds change from coming from the west to coming from the north indicating the cold front

Summary:

• Sunday:
  • High- 56
  • Low- 32
  • Precipitation-0, cloud free skies
  • NOTE: There is a freeze warning out and there will be frost!
• Monday:
  • High- 65
  • Low- 41
  • Precipitation-0, clear skies
• Tuesday:
  • High- 63
  • Low- 37
  • Precipitation-0, clear skies

As always everyone have a fun and safe week!

We are starting off our morning with cloudy conditions, and they will pass as we enter our afternoon. Expect the weather to be a bit colder as a cold front extending all the way from Canada will pass this morning as well. In fact, the National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a special weather statement for today through 3pm, which outlines that frost may be an issue as of tonight and Sunday night as well, so be sure to protect any of your sensitive crops.

13Z Infrared Satellite (Source: College of DuPage)

Expect temperatures to get up to the lower 60’s and get down to the lower 40’s in time for WKU’s football game against Old Dominion. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30’s. Luckily, any rain is out of the question for tonight and into Tuesday morning.

6Z GFS SLP and Precipitation (Source: College of DuPage)

Sunday will have highs into the lower 50’s and upper 40’s and lows into the lower 30’s, hence the possible frost danger. Monday will have highs into the mid to upper 50’s and lows into the mid to lower 30’s. Neither of these days will see rain.

Summary:

Saturday: Skies clearing in the afternoon, High: 60, Low: 37

Sunday: Clear and cool, High: 50, Low: 31

Monday: Clear and cool, High: 56, Low: 36

Greetings!

This Friday morning will start of quite and cooler with temperature this morning is upper 30s to the lower 40s around the area. However, as the day goes on clouds will increase as the surface low swings from Canada into the Midwest which will bring a cold front with rain in late afternoon to evening hours to our area.

According to the 12Z HRRR, the rain will get here around 5-6 pm Friday  and stay till early Saturday morning. 

The cold front will bring cooler temperatures with a high in the mid 60s and low temperatures in the mid 30s. But as pressure gradient become closer together  with the trough axis passing through, the wind speeds will increase on Saturday. Looking at wind speeds of 15-20 mph with stronger wind gust.  Below is 06z  GFS at  700 mb level (Mid level atmosphere) showing stronger winds  over our area. Please note that winds will not be this strong at the surface, but it is indicating a windy Saturday.

Summary:

Friday: Upper 60s/ lower 50s with a high chance of rain this evening

Saturday: mid 60s/  mid 30s windy and clouds clearing as the day goes on

Sunday: upper 50s/ mid 30s sunny

Good afternoon folks!

It has been a gorgeous day for your Thursday here in south central Kentucky. Nothing but sunny skies and highs topping out around 60° thanks to an area of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley. Heading into tonight, that area of high pressure will move east keeping the skies mostly clear, with temperatures dropping back down into the mid-to-upper 30s. Temperatures should stay above that freezing mark for the Bowling Green area, but a few low-lying areas could see some patchy frost.

Below: NAM Fri 2018-10-19 12z 2m AGL Temperature

The gorgeous, fall-like conditions will continue heading into most of the day on Friday. Skies will start out sunny but clouds will be on the increase from west to east as the day goes on, thanks to a surface cold front associated with an upper-level trough. This cold front could spark off a few showers heading into the evening hours as deeper moisture moves into the area. High temperature for Friday will climb to around 68°.

Below: NAM Sat-2018-10-20 00z Composite Reflectivity, Type, 1000-500 mb Thickness

The rain will continue into the overnight hours on Friday before clearing out Saturday late morning thanks to high pressure building out to the west. Gradual clearing will continue throughout the afternoon hours on Saturday. Highs will not have as good as a chance to rebound due to cloud cover in the morning, but temperatures will top out around 63°.

Forecast for the next few days:

Tonight: Mostly clear skies with a low around 36° winds becoming calm during the overnight hours

Friday: Mostly clear skies before noon with increasing clouds in the afternoon, high topping out around 68°. Shower chances will increase heading into the evening hours.

Friday night: Showers are likely with a low of 50°. Rain totals around the area between a quarter and half inch.

Saturday: Cloudy skies through noon, then gradual clearing throughout the afternoon hours, with a high near 64°.

6-10 Day Outlook (Oct 24-28): Temperature & Precipitation

Temperatures for the area heading into late next week and weekend have a good chance of staying below average with a greater chance for above average precipitation during that stretch.

Good evening!

What a beautiful day it was across much of Kentucky!  We climbed to 68 degrees here in Bowling Green, with only a few clouds in the sky.  No doubt it’s sweater season though, as it was a chilly start in the early morning hours.  More of that is likely to come over the next week!

In fact, as the 21z RAP model here tries to illustrate, tomorrow morning could come with temperatures cold enough for frost to form.  The NWS has even issued a frost advisory; here it is-

Lows across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass
  region of Kentucky are expected to drop to 30-35 degrees by
  daybreak Thursday. Lows across much of the rest of Kentucky are
  expected to drop into the 32-37 degree range, which is cold
  enough for frost development.

With that being said, get those plants susceptible to cold weather indoors or covered!  And as we look towards the longer range, there are even more chances for colder temperatures.  Fall is really here, folks!

Above is the 18z run of the GFS model.  This really only gives us a general idea of what the upcoming pattern could be like!  However, watching those darker blues dip into our general area a few times (especially towards the end) makes me want to go get a glass of piping hot cocoa.  Of course, Florida is really the only state staying warm through this pattern.

Since colder temperatures are coming, when will that first freeze be?  Sunday could be close.  Right now, it is forecast to dip into the lower 30s before dawn on Monday morning.  There will likely be a light freeze across some of the more rural areas in Kentucky, and could even be so in Bowling Green.  No doubt about it, it’s time to keep that sweater on hand.  And hang on to those umbrellas too- chances are increasing on Friday for rain showers, but should clear up in time for the WKU vs. Old Dominion football game.  Stay tuned for up to date information on Friday’s rain chances!

Tonight: Frost Advisory in effect, low of 37 degrees with clear to partly cloudy skies

Tomorrow: High of 58, clear to partly cloudy skies

Tomorrow night: Cold again, low of 39 degrees with clear skies

Afternoon lads!

Well, after a soggy Monday, there is much to look forward to for the rest of the week if your looking to stay dry. Yesterday’s rain contributed to 1.58″ of rain in the bucket for those of  Bowling Green, Ky (courtesy of NWS Climatological Report). However, things will start to cool off and dry out with steady northerly winds from our north. Also, thanks to some fair weather makers we’ll get to see 60°F for our high temperature on Wednesday.

A big high pressure out West U.S. stretches laterally into the Midwest the OH Valley region. The surface analysis below indicates this response to the atmosphere. Count how many “blue H’s” are on the map… merely 4 high pressured zones. Northerly flow keeps the air high and dry for many to the west and north of the Mid-South region. We’ll stay dry as well for the most part for the next couple of days. Cloudy skies today will brush off towards the Southeast coast by tomorrow. Maximum temperatures are to reach around 58°F for today. Clearing of skies for Wednesday along with sunshine will tempt temperatures to surpass 60°F.

Keep an eye on the area outlined in blue for this low pressure is channeling a slight cold punch for a Frost Warning Thursday morning. Temperatures will be mid-30’s briefly at the dawn of the morning. But due to these high pressure zones temperatures will warm up to upper 50’s at the peak of the day.

TUES: Mostly cloudy, a calm wind from the north. Conditions are mainly dry although majority clouds for the region. A maximum temperature of 58°F and a minimum of 42°F. 

TUES NIGHT: Mostly clear, with frigid conditions as the dew point temperatures will be low 40’s and upper 30’s. Clear skies make for cooler/drier nights… that’s vital to be aware of. Temperature overnight around 44°F.

WEDN: Mostly sunny, a slight northeastern wind creating a beautiful fall-like feel to the atmosphere. A high pressured zone in the area still prevails! High temperatures are sure to reach 60°F but no more than a degree higher and a low temperature of 42°F.

If you’re on any social media platform, you have most likely already seen a plethora of pictures about Fall and everything associated with it. From flannels to farm and orchard visits to Fall-flavored drinks, many people have been all about this first shot of Fall weather. And the good news for those people is high pressure to our west will keep conditions similar to what we’ve had. Better yet, that sweater weather will continue without the constant rain for at least the next few days, so you can enjoy those mid-week corn mazes without worrying about washing off your shoes before hopping back into the car.

For tomorrow, rain should stay south of the KY-TN border, but we will see our fair share of cloud cover here in the Commonwealth. After a mild morning start around 42 degrees, temps warm up nicely to near 60.

00Z GFS showing rain to our south for Tuesday. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Wednesday will be a warm day, but not before we see temps drop into the mid 30s. The chilly morning start will give way to a much warmer afternoon with a high of 65. Sky conditions will also be improving both Wednesday and Thursday as the clouds move out, and sunshine makes a welcomed return.

00Z GFS showing afternoon temps in the 60s. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Lows will be low on Thursday. For those using the bus in the morning, you’ll need to crack out the winter coat or at least go with the sweater-hoodie combo. This will especially be true for children. By the end of the work or school day, it will be just warm enough to take off the hoodie, but keep on that comfy sweater!

00Z Nam showing near freezing low temps on Thursday morning. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Tuesday: Low of 42 and a high of 59. Cloud cover will persist most of the day.

Wednesday: The pick of the week in terms of weather. Clear skies with a cold start but quickly warming to a high of 65.

Thursday: A chilly start in the low to mid 30s but warming up to the mid 50s later in the day.

With the temperatures making their way into the 30s, it would be wise to move the more delicate plants indoors. Patchy frost will be possible Wednesday morning and even more likely Thursday morning for those living outside the city limits.

Side note, this was our fourth Monday out of the past six that Bowling Green has received some amount of rainfall, so make sure to tune in later this week to see if the Monday wet streak will continue.

Good afternoon everyone!

As we move into the new week, we continue to think about and pray for those affected by Hurricane Michael. Please help in anyway you can to bring those affected to peace.

Now on to Bowling Green! Right now we have some warm air advection hanging over the area that will account for today’s warmer high of 65. This will be pushed out of the way by a cold front that will come through sometime after midnight leading to more rain. This cold front will also push the WAA out of the way bringing in a cold air advection and cooler temperatures.

Warm Air Advection (red) and Cold Air Advection (blue) via GFS

Surface observations with the cold front to the west

Thankfully the temperatures don’t look to hit above 65 this next week. Unfortunately, we will be experiencing some rain today through Monday night. Our temperatures this next week will remain below average, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

GFS temperatures for the next few days

We will continue to see rain today through Monday night. Tuesday skies will be partly sunny. There is the potential for a few leftover showers.

GFS precipitation rates and type

Summary:

• Sunday
  • High: 65
  • Low: 59
  • Rain today through Monday night accumulating to around .5 inches
• Monday
  • High: 60
  • Low: 43
  • Rain through Monday night
• Tuesday
  • High: 56
  • Low: 38
  • Partly sunny with the potential for leftover showers

As always, stay safe and have a good week!